Labor appears poised to win today’s Victorian election, with the Coalition government hoping a last-minute swing and a strong marginal-seat campaign will avert a historic first-term election defeat.
An election-eve Newspoll saw no change in Labor’s consistent 52% to 48% lead, but showed the satisfaction of the premier, Denis Napthine, had fallen five points in the final days to 41%. He remains four points ahead of his Labor challenger, who surged 3% despite attacks by the government on his union ties.
A Galaxy poll on Friday showed a similar margin, as did a last-minute Fairfax-Ipsos survey. But the latter gave the Coalition a glimmer of hope, suggesting preference flows in line with the 2010 election would erode Labor’s lead completely and balance the race at 50% each.
With Peggy at Port Fairy voting for a #BetterVic @LiberalVictoria #VicVotes pic.twitter.com/U4zHMY0kLe
— Denis Napthine (@Vic_Premier) November 29, 2014
The premier used last-minute TV appearances in his electorate in Portland, on the state’s south-west coast, to raise doubts over whether Labor leader Daniel Andrews could be trusted to manage the state’s triple-A rated economy and deliver infrastructure projects for a population set to boom in the next decades.
“I have faith in the voters that they know who they can trust to deliver a strong economy, they know who they can trust to deliver the major projects Melbourne and Victoria needs, like East West link, like Melbourne rail link, like the airport rail link,” Napthine said.
Not sure about this, a stall selling 'fruit' at Moreland PS. Snags and cakes only please #vicvotes pic.twitter.com/Tp74eqw1Np
— Tom Cowie (@tom_cowie) November 28, 2014
He dismissed the polls suggesting the government would be the state’s first single-term administration since 1955. “The poll can be wrong, the polls are often wrong,” said the premier, who cast his vote in Port Fairy around noon alongside his wife, Peggy.
Andrews voted an hour earlier at Albany Rise primary school in Mulgrave, his marginal seat in Melbourne’s outer east. He told media on Saturday that Labor would put the government’s focus back on people, fix Tafe, and solve a long-running pay dispute with the state’s paramedics.
Busy morning. Ready for the last day of campaigning. #vicvotes #today pic.twitter.com/FjQ7MaNdfa
— Daniel Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) November 28, 2014
“We’re going to give Victorians a clear choice, a choice between tired old negatives ... that are worth really not very much at all to Victorian families and an optimistic and positive plan,” he said.
Andrews’ wife Catherine was by his side as they joined the queue Saturday morning, where they shook hands with voters and cuddled at least one baby.
Despite the polls looking good for Labor, Andrews said he wasn’t taking anything for granted and that he would be campaigning through to 6pm.
“Now, it’s a matter for the great people of our state to make a judgement if they want four more years like the last four,” he told reporters.
Asked about a widespread sentiment from Victorians that both leaders political campaigns had been uninspiring – many voters at Mulgrave told Guardian Australia Saturday morning that neither leader had grabbed them – Andrews wasn’t too keen to comment.
“I’m not here to talk about those things,” he said. “The people of Victoria will make their choice. I’m inspired by the people of Victoria every day.”
As Andrews left the school to continue his final day of campaigning, the Liberal candidate for Mulgrave, Robert Davies, arrive. He said it would be tight.
“It does depend on the statewide swing obviously,” he said. “If that goes strongly to Labor, it will be difficult for us here in Mulgrave.”
The final days have seen a focus on a handful of marginal seats that will likely decide today’s result, including Bentleigh, in Melbourne’s south-east. The Liberals hold the seat on a knife-edge 0.8% margin and on Friday deployed the most popular federal face in the party, Julie Bishop, in a final push to hold the “sandbelt” electorate.
The seat also played host on Friday to the state’s former Labor state premier Steve Bracks and the federal opposition leader, Bill Shorten, who suggested the prime minister, Tony Abbott, was being hidden from the trail in “witness protection”.
Kicking off #ElectionDay at #Memorial Hall in Sale 2 welcome #Gippsland voters #gippsnews #vicvotes #auspol #springst pic.twitter.com/MRMRhOuaii
— Peter Ryan (@peterryanMP) November 28, 2014
The Abbott government’s unpopularity has haunted Napthine throughout the campaign trail and Labor has sought to press federal issues such as the GP co-payment and this week’s cuts to the ABC.
Along with Bentleigh, the Coalition is trying to hold three other marginals electorates along the Frankston train line – Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston – to stave off a Labor win. Also crucial are the regional cities of Ballarat and Geelong, and the outer suburban seats of Yan Yean, Monbulk, Eltham and Cranbourne.
A hung parliament remains a possibility, and the Greens are strongly contesting Melbourne, Richmond and two other tight inner-city seats in the hopes of securing the balance of power, which they would use to scrap the controversial East West link toll road and establish a new national park in the state’s central highlands.
First sausage of the day. pic.twitter.com/GFMRHAfqo0
— Lauren Hilbert (@laurenhilbert) November 28, 2014
The Greens were buoyed by a slight increase in their primary vote in the latest Newspoll, which suggested the party would win 12% and have a fighting chance of picking up at least one inner-city seat in the state’s lower house.
Greg Barber, the party’s Victorian leader, spent the morning at booths in Kensington and Richmond and will vote in Brunswick at midday.
The state’s upper house, too, could throw up resistance to the major parties, with some preference gurus suggesting candidates from the Sex party, the Shooters, and the Liberal Democrats might prevail.
Almost one-third of voters have already cast their ballots, but their votes won’t be counted until Monday. In a tight contest that could leave the result unknown until early next week. Polling booths around the state close at 6pm.
Labor was angered on Saturday by the Greens’ decision to issue open how-to-vote cards in key electorates, which may benefit the Coalition.
The Greens issued open tickets – which means it did not indicate to voters where they should direct preferences – in the seats of Monbulk, Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Monbulk, Narre Warren North, Yan Yean, Carrum, Ringwood and Benambra.
But in most seats – including the marginal electorates of Frankston and Prahran – the Greens gave its preferences to Labor.
Earlier in the campaign, Labor rejected an offer from the Greens for the party to swap preferences.
The Herald Sun reported that exit polls of votes cast in the weeks before polling day indicted Labor had won 52.5% of the two-party vote.
There has been a record number of pre-poll votes, with almost 30% of people voting before Saturday.
