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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Luke Henriques-Gomes

Victorian state election 2018: Labor celebrates after Liberal wipeout – as it happened

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And that's a wrap

To recap:

  • Labor has won a stunning victory in Victoria, with the premier, Daniel Andrews, saying voters have rejected “fear and division”.
  • The Liberal leader, Matthew Guy, says it’s time for “unity” within his party, amid claims of internal strife that are said to have plagued its campaign.
  • The Greens had a disappointing night following a disastrous campaign.

And with that, I will leave you.

Thanks for staying with us throughout the night. I hope you enjoyed our coverage.

Updated

Here is our political editor Katharine Murphy’s take on the federal implications of tonight’s result.

Updated

My colleague Gay Alcorn has filed her analysis of an election night in Victoria that shocked even the most seasoned observers.

Not even the most supreme optimists in Labor dreamed of this. A thumping victory, a “bloodbath” as Labor’s health minister, Jill Hennessy, put it. Labor luminaries looked not just pleased, but stunned.

A swing to Labor of around 6%, around 60 seats in an 88-seat parliament, the Coalition reduced to a rump of 20, with several still in doubt. Although the counting of prepoll votes might bring back the scale of the win a little, Labor’s early worries about being forced into minority government proved laughable.

Here is our wrap of the night’s events. As Melissa Davey writes, it’s been a stunning victory for Daniel Andrews’ Labor government.

Labor has won the Victorian election in a thumping victory, securing at least 58 out of 88 lower house seats by 9.30pm on Saturday night, and on track to secure as many as 61.

The Coalition had by then lost half of its seats and calls were being made for senior Liberal party figures to resign. The opposition leader Matthew Guy had also conceded defeat.

The premier, Daniel Andrews, said the result showed Victorians “rejected the low road of fear and division”.

Updated

Earlier in the day, I mentioned that one of the interesting narratives from tonight would be the performance of several rural and regional independents. Their efforts have been overshadowed, somewhat, by Labor’s stunning performance.

But there are signs of a few possible upsets in the regions. Cathy McGowan-endorsed independent Jacqui Hawkins remains in with a shot in Benambra, in Victoria’s north-east, while Ali Cupper is also a chance of nabbing Mildura from the Nationals.

Daniel Andrews claims victory: Victorians 'rejected fear and division'

The premier, Daniel Andrews, has stepped on stage to claim victory, saying that Victorians had rejected the “low road of fear and division”.

He is delighted that Labor will “form a strong, stable majority government”.

“We are the most progressive government in the nation,” he says. “We are the most progressive state in the nation.”

In a pointed criticism of the Liberal campaign, Andrews says Victorians “have in record numbers ... rejected the low road of fear and division”. “And for that, I am very, very proud,” he says.

Andrews notes the government’s record on level crossing removals as well as hospital and Tafe funding.

He thanks his staff, his wife, Catherine, party volunteers, the union movements, and notes his late father, Bob, who told him “say what you do, and do what you say.

“The people of Victoria have today overwhelmingly endorsed a positive and optimistic plan for our state,” he says.

Updated

There were loud cheers for Matthew Guy as he arrives at the Veneto Club. He gives a short speech in which he congratulates Daniel Andrews and thanks his supporters and staff. He says he believes the Coalition campaigned on the issues that are important to Victorians. “Tonight is clearly not our night,” he says. “We acknowledge that, we accept that. Our time on the sun will come again.” He leaves the room and is currently shut in an administration office which media are waiting outside of to interview him. His supporters have returned to the bar.

Anyone who knows Melbourne will know Brighton is not exactly traditional Labor territory. The bayside electorate is one of the city’s most affluent areas. The Liberals held it by 9.7% at the last election so it tells you something about the strength of the Labor result that its candidate, 19-year-old Declan Martin, is ahead there, according to current electoral commission figures.

Updated

Labor’s candidate for Ringwood, Dustin Halse, says the government has been rewarded for “long-term thinking”. It’s an amazing result in a seat which closely mirrors the federal marginal seat of Deakin, held by Liberal MP Michael Sukkar. At the 2014 election, when Labor claimed power with a swing towards it across the state, Ringwood remained squarely in the Liberal column. “We under estimate the people of this area, the eastern suburbs, we are not as conservative as people would suggest,” Halse says.

Following on from Matthew Guy’s comments about “unity”, on the ABC, shadow cabinet minister John Pesutto is alluding to internal divisions within the party. He won’t be specific but says Guy was forced to deal with “factional issues within the party” to do with “who gets what position”.

Jane Hume is unhappy about the decision to sue “our largest donor”, the Cormack Foundation. The Liberal party state president, Michael Kroger, was involved with that dispute.

Updated

The Liberal leader, Matthew Guy, is addressing the party faithful now, saying he’s offered Daniel Andrews his “sincere and gracious congratulations”.

Guy says it’s been a “stunning night” for Labor and that “tonight is clearly not our night”.

He believes there are a few seats that have been called for Labor that he thinks the Liberals can still hold on the strength of pre-poll results.

Despite soul-searching from some Liberal figures already, Guy is not backing away from his focus on law and order issues during the campaign.

“In the Liberal Party in the last, not just few weeks, but indeed the last few years, we have campaigned on issues that we believe are important and of the most importance to Victorians,” she says.

“Keeping Victorians safe, lowering their cost of living, easing the congestion in places like particularly the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, and also decentralising our state’s population.

“It isn’t sustainable to keep growing Melbourne as it is and I note in country Victoria, the minimum swings against our party.”

It appears he plans to continue on in the job. “I say for the next parliament, as a party, we need to stick together,” he says.

The Liberal leader, Matthew Guy, has called Daniel Andrews to congratulate him and concede the election. We’re told he will be addressing the Liberal party faithful in 10-15 minutes.

The ABC has projected that Labor will hold the inner-city seat of Brunswick with a small swing towards it. The Greens were confident that would snatch the seat from Labor amid huge demographic changes in the area. Labor’s candidate, union health and safety officer Cindy O’Connor, notes the seat has not been called yet, but she looks absolutely delighted.

Updated

Daniel Andrews’ election night bash has just broken out into the Happy Birthday song for a young Labor supporter called Xavier, who was swiftly hoisted up on someone’s shoulders. A double celebration for Xavier tonight no doubt.

Updated

Desolate is one way to describe things currently at Liberals HQ as seat projections drop to 18. It’s like a silent disco except no one’s wearing the headphones.

“It’s pretty sobering” said one supporter who said he wasn’t ready to reflect on what’s gone wrong.

Another lady cut in front of me to dip a sausage roll in the tomato sauce. “I’m sorry,” she said. “I’m just a zombie”.

Updated

John Pesutto, the shadow attorney general whose seat of Hawthorn is under threat, says the Liberals might have to start thinking about “what kind of party we want to be”.

But, clearly, even if the result evens out, we shouldn’t be in this position. We did a lot of things right but obviously something ha sgone horribly wrong. Even on these numbers, if they improve with pre-polls and postals, as I expect they will, as I said, the information I’m getting is that out of our regional seats, it’s not as bad but we shouldn’t be in this position. So we’re going to clearly have to do a root and branch review. We shouldn’t be in this position.

Labor supporters have been dancing jigs of joy at Premier Daniel Andrew’s election night bash. They’re shouting “four more years” as more and more seats fall Labor’s way.

Macedonian migrant Stajanka Nikolov made friends tonight with a Polish migrant Mary Garvin. The pair have been laughing and hugging like they’ve known each other for decades and linking arms and swinging around in circles like small children.

There’s a sweet 16 birthday party happening next door to this function, but the teenagers aren’t dancing at all, just standing around awkwardly looking at each other.

Incredibly, the blue ribbon Liberal seat of Hawthorn, held by the shadow attorney general, John Pesutto, is under threat. The affluent seat in Melbourne’s inner east has been held by the consecutive Liberals by since the mid-60s. It was previously held by the former premier Ted Ballieu.

“I don’t feel great,” Pesutto says. He’s on an 8% margin, but says high-density development means the area is rapidly changing.

Updated

'Bloodbath' for Liberals

This is looming as an incredible win for Labor in Victoria – a result even the most optimistic Labor strategists would never have predicted.

As the health minister, Jill Hennessy, told the ABC, it’s a “bloodbath”. Labor is sweeping the leafy eastern suburbs of Melbourne that have been assumed conservative territory for many years. As former premier John Brumby said, these seats were won by Steve Bracks in 2002, and gradually fell away until they held barely one in 2010 when Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal premier. Those seats seemed to have been lost forever.

“They look like they are all coming back,” said Brumby, as surprised as anyone. Even Brunswick, which was assumed as a Green gain in the inner city, may stay with Labor. Why the big win for Daniel Andrews? The emphasis on federal factors is mostly overplayed – this was an election fought on state issues.

The federal leadership change didn’t help, but it is already being used as an excuse by the local Coalition. Tony Abbott was prime minister during the 2014 state campaign and he was truly “toxic”, as local Liberals put it at the time. The main reasons for the Coalition’s failure this time are due to their own decisions.

Labor prevailed for one reason: it delivered things that people actually want to improve their lives. The Coalition’s law and order crime scare did not work as well as the Coalition hoped.

Updated

Speaking on the ABC, the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, congratulates Daniel Andrews and Labor, saying Victorians have rejected “a really awful campaign based on law and order”.

He says the Coalition had tried to “divide the Australian community ... trying to use that awful crime that was committed during the campaign”.

Di Natale says he believes the decision not to stand down Footscray candidate Angus McAlpine, who had rapped misogynistic lyrics about date rape, was not a mistake. He also says the Greens were victims of a “smear campaign” from Labor in the inner city.

He says the Greens are still competitive in Brunswick, but notably does not mention Richmond, where the party was trying to knock off the Labor planning minister, Richard Wynne.

Updated

The mood is subdued at the Liberal party’s headquarters for the night, which is the Veneto Club in Bulleen.

Supporters are slowly arriving and, aside from the wine and beer, have given a glum assessment of how things are looking.

“So far not great,” said George, a Caulfield resident.

His friend John from Doncaster East put things a little more bluntly. “I’m not allowed to use bad language,” he said.

Updated

Labor is performing very, very well in the eastern suburbs, where the Liberals have been traditionally strong. As a number of observers have noticed, the last time Labor did well in Melbourne’s east was under former premier, Steve Bracks. They are ahead in Ringwood and also Forest Hill, where the Libs actually won a swing in 2014 despite losing government.

Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger has said early numbers suggest things are not looking good for the Coalition and it appears it is “not picking up the marginal seats” it needs to win government.

Interestingly, Labor figures are now turning their attention to the inner-city seats where they are in a contest against the Greens. Early signs are positive for Labor in Brunswick, where the Greens were hot favourites, while the health minister, Jill Hennessy, is talking up Labor’s prospects in the Greens-held seat of Melbourne.

Updated

Labor win: ABC calls the election

At 7.20pm, Antony Green has said:

This is a path to victory for the Labor party. Look, you must call it … the thing is there is nothing in any figure we’re seeing at the moment which points to anything but a Labor victory. I haven’t got all the preference counts but everything is happening on first preferences. It’s not good news in these figures for the Liberal party.

Updated

Antony Green: “There is nothing good in the early figures we are seeing from Melbourne for the Liberal party.”

Updated

ABC psephologist Antony Green says some interesting shifts are occurring;

There is something quite odd going on in the numbers. There is a swing of 0.9% going on to the Labor party at the moment. If I look at the metropolitan areas, there is a swing of 7% going on at the moment. Across eastern Melbourne, there is significant two-party preferred swings going on. I haven’t got many preference counts yet. I’m doing some of this based on estimates of preferences. But there is shifts going on and it is quite consistent in lots of electorates. I’m not about to call it just yet, but that’s a bigger swing than I was expecting to see in parts of Melbourne.”

Updated

Victorian Liberal Senator Jane Hume said there was “no doubt” leadership turmoil in Canberra in August would “inevitably” have an impact on the state election, and “I can only apologise”.

She says, though, that prime minister Scott Morrison has “played quite well” in Victoria.

Former premier John Brumby, says that the prospect of Peter Dutton becoming PM would have “frightened” many Victorians, but it’s been a “flawless campaign” by Labor”, with big announcements that captured people’s attention.

“What you’re seeing in these seats is very substantial swings to Labor in metropolitan areas to Labor.”

“I think you’re going to see some big numbers”.

The Greens leader Samantha Ratnam is staying upbeat despite what Neil Mitchell describes as a “disastrous campaign” on Channel Nine.

“It’s been a challenging few weeks, in the context of the most extraordinary campaign we have run for the Greens,” Ratnam says. “We have knocked on 160,000 doors, over 6,000 people at voting centres handing out how-to-vote cards supporting the Green cause.”

She won’t say what a “par” result would be, but says they hope to hold their three lower house seats and win Brunswick and Richmond.

The Liberal candidate for the marginal seat of Bentleigh, Asher Judah, is on message until the very end.

“We’re going to get tougher on crime. We’re going to lock people up and deploy more police and put an end to Labor’s cuts,” he has just told the ABC.

He says after the leadership spill in Canberra he did take a week off from door-knocking.

“It was not an easy week to door knock. After it was resolved, we got back to the job and people went back to their issues, community safety and the rising cost of living.”

The Morwell independent Russell Northe, a former National party MP, has just appeared on Channel Nine. Labor is trying to win the Latrobe Valley seat in a field of 11 candidates, including other high-profile independents, the Nationals and the Liberals.

Northe says he’s not feeling confident so much as “hopeful”. With about 2% counted, he’s is in second place on 18%, behind Labor’s Mark Richards on 27.5%. Northe says preferences will be vital to determining the result, which he thinks might not be known for a while.

Towards the start of the blog, I mentioned that Eltham, in Melbourne’s north-east, was a target seat for the Liberals. Matthew Guy was campaigning there early this morning.

But both federal Liberal MP Michael Sukkar and Labor’s Lisa Neville are saying on different networks that early returns suggest Labor is looking good in that seat, which the government holds by 2.7%.

Deputy Premier James Merlino has held the seat of Monbulk since 2002 and seems confident of retaining the only Labor-held seat in Melbourne’s east.

He’s been asked how he thinks the Country Fire Authority saga will impact on the result there. He says Labor’s investment in schools, hospitals, and rail is what has resonated with voters there - not the issue of fire services

“In terms of the Liberal party and their campaign, obviously they’re trying to make a big thing of it. In terms of the feeling on the ground, I can only answer, in terms of the experience that I have had. I hasten to add, we haven’t had indications from the booths yet and this is my fifth election so I won’t be making any rash statements right now.”

The Coalition’s shadow education minister, Tim Smith, says the federal leadership trauma in August “hasn’t helped” the state conservatives.

“When you’ve got federal politicians constantly talking about themselves, that hasn’t helped our party like it didn’t help Labor during the Rudd-Gillard years, that’s brand damage.”

Smith explains the Coalition in opinion polls was tracking 49% to Labor’s 51% on a two-party preferred basis in August, and support has declined in more recent polls.

The implication is that the federal fuss may have played a part in that.

Updated

The police minister, Lisa Neville, is being asked about the red shirts scandal and what impact it has had on Labor’s campaign.

“What is interesting being on and talking to voters in the last few weeks, I think they’re issues that journalists and insiders are very focused on,” she says. “What the community were talking to me is what you are doing in health, what you’re doing in education, on roads and transport in the local communities.”

It’s still an empty Labor party function room at the Village Green pub in Mulgrave in Daniel Andrews’ south-eastern suburbs electorate.

Next-door there is more action at a sweet 16 birthday party. A couple of supporters have started to trickle in for Labor. Cliff and Marianne Banks had been handing how to vote cards out at a local primary school.

“It would rain for five minutes and then stop, rain for five minutes and then stop and the wind was so strong,” Marianne said.

There was a sausage sizzle and a Tupperware stall as well as bacon and egg breakfast rolls. Cliff described the vibe as very serious.

He said people had been on a mission to vote and get out of there quickly. The Bankses are recently retired and have been actively involved with the Labor party for a fortnight. “It’s our new hobby,” Cliff said.

Marianne, who is allergic to onions, taste-tested three democracy sausages and said they were top notch. “They used separate tongs for me, all I had was tomato sauce on them,” she said.

Updated

The shadow treasurer, Michael O’Brien, is copping some tough questioning over on Channel Nine. Pointing to Nine’s Galaxy poll, Neil Mitchell suggests to him that the Coalition has blown it. “It’s only a poll, it’s only a poll,” O’Brien replies.

There are definitely signs that the Coalition is already starting to lower expectations, though, as my colleague Gay Alcorn noted from Michael Sukkar’s comments earlier.

Updated

Some thoughts on where the major parties are holding their election night parties. Stephen Mayne is a campaigner with the Alliance for Gambling Reform.

I’m just going to leave this here.

Did the focus on law and order help Matthew Guy? Or not? It’s not clear. Labor’s Stephen Conroy says recent polls indicate Victorians are split on which party would manage crime better – about 50-50 – despite four years of hard campaigning on the issue from the Coalition.

“You’d have to say that Matthew Guy struggled to get traction, to get cut through.”

Updated

The Liberal party state president, Michael Kroger, has been interviewed by the ABC at Liberal HQ and insists: “We don’t take notice of exit polls.”

“They’re invariably wrong,” he said. “A lot of polls have been wrong over the years. At the very worst we hope for a hung parliament, take a few seats off Labor.”

He described Guy’s law and order campaign as “terrific” because, he says, Victorians are very worried.

“About their safety … car jacking, home invasions and gangs. Why wouldn’t they be worried? That’s what the Liberal party [campaigns on] – it is in its DNA. One of the most important roles for a state government is to keep people safe and the federal government’s role is to protect the borders.”

Updated

The federal Liberal member for the Victorian seat of Deakin, Michael Sukkar, repeats a line now being regularly used by the Coalition – in 100 years no majority first term government has lost power in Victoria.

“Matthew is climbing Mr Everest, or is trying to, and we’re certainly the underdogs tonight,” he tells Sky News.

Updated

Former Labor federal senator Stephen Conroy tells Sky the polls indicate it will be hard for the Coalition to gain any seats, let alone the eight required. But he says it’s a fascinating election, because Labor might do well in some areas, but “it has to watch the left flank” – inner-city seats such as Brunswick and Richmond, under challenge from the Greens. If they succeed, Labor ends up without a majority.

Updated

Counting has begun and the Victorian electoral commissioner, Warwick Gately, says the commission will aim to count up to 75% of lower house first preference votes tonight.

“Recent legislative changes allowed the VEC to start extraction and sorting of postal votes and early votes several hours ago ready for a 6pm sharp start of counting,” Gately said.

Postal votes will continue to be counted at a centralised counting centre until the last day of admission: 30 November. Where no candidate has obtained an absolute majority of first preference votes, rechecks for all lower house votes will occur. Preference distributions will take place after rechecks have been completed.

Updated

Nick Reece, a former adviser to Julia Gillard, says there is a “strong level of confidence” among Labor supporters tonight. Reece is at the Village Green Hotel, where Labor will celebrate or commiserate and says internal polling of marginal seats show “Labor is in front”. A quiet sense of confidence, he says.

Dr Paul Strangio, associate professor of politics at Monash University, said that with Labor getting consistent polls in their favour around the 53% mark, “the government just can’t be defeated on those sort of polls”.

“If those polls are accurate, the big issue now is what’s the margin for a return of a Labor government? That’s what we will be focussed on tonight. There’s not much low-hanging fruit for Labor with a minor swing to them so it will still be close in terms of seats, but the swing will be interesting.”

He said if Labor did win questions would need to be asked by the Coaliton about whether it ran a campaign that was “too mono-dimensional” by focussing so heavily on law and order.

“That may not have been a very well calibrated campaign in what is a very diverse and complex state.”

Some more details about that Galaxy poll.

Polls closed

Polls have now closed. We’ll bring you the results as they come to hand. As mentioned, most polls, including an election day Galaxy poll, show Labor on track to win a second term in government.

With the polls set to close, here’s a look at the state of play.

Labor heads into tonight with 45 seats out of a possible 88. They need either 45 seats for a floor majority of 44 seats plus a government speaker or 44 MPs with a non-government speaker.

The Coalition needs eight seats to win government or a statewide swing of 3%. It is looking to the sandbelt seats of Carrum, Frankston and Mordialloc, which the Liberals lost in 2014. Those seats determined the result in 2014 and 2010.

The Greens hold three seats in the lower house and are hoping to hold five by the end of the night, with their eyes on Brunswick and Richmond. Labor would give up a clear majority if it loses two seats, something that could occur with a 0.7% swing to the Coalition, or a 2.2% swing from Labor to the Greens.

We will more than likely have a result tonight because for the first time in Victoria, prepoll votes will be counted on election night.

A record 1.6m early and postal votes were cast and the Victorian Electoral Commission will start posting votes on its website from around 6.30pm.

Updated

The Liberal party president, Michael Kroger, is on Channel Nine right now responding to the poll. He’s not conceding defeat by any means, but says that if Labor is to win tonight, it’s because the Andrews government has “thrown free money at Victorians”.

Kroger says:

In the end if we were to lose tonight and Labor were to win it would be on the basis that the public thinks: “Well, the more important thing to worry about than crime is that we are getting free money from the government.”

Updated

Election day poll predicts comfortable Labor win

Channel Nine has released the results of an election day Galaxy poll that shows Labor on track for a huge win, claiming 55% of the two party vote to 45% for the Coalition.

The poll puts Labor on a 41% primary vote, with the Coalition on 38%. The Greens’ vote, predicted at 12%, appears to have held up despite the party’s disastrous campaign.

Notably, there has been a record number of early votes cast this election.

Polls won’t close for another half hour.

Updated

Have you spotted one of these?

Updated

Most observers believe the election will be won and lost in what they call the “sandbelt”, four bayside marginal seats in Melbourne’s southeast.

One of those seats is Carrum, where Daniel Andrews has been campaigning, the Australian Associated Press reports.

As promised, Daniel Andrews is campaigning right up to the close of polls in the Victorian election, including a visit to one of the state’s most marginal seats in the closing hours.

After casting his vote on Saturday morning, the Labor premier headed to Carrum to help incumbent Sonya Kilkenny, who holds the seat by just 0.7%.

At Carrum Downs Secondary College Andrews told Fairfax Labor had done everything it could to win a second term.

“You can try and scare people into voting for you but I don’t think that’s leadership, frankly,” he said.

“I don’t think people warm to that, I think they would much rather have a sense that the person who is in charge has a plan and a determination, a conviction and an absolute resolve to deliver on it and face up to whatever challenges present.”

The Labor leader maintained an active social media profile throughout the day.

“That’s the choice you face today. A choice between new and old, between cheap and costly, between solar and smoke, between Labor and Liberal – between forwards and backwards,” he tweeted.

Three opinion polls published at the end of the campaign show Labor should be returned with a narrow majority if the results are uniform across the state.

But if it doesn’t, the Greens – who currently hold three seats and are aiming for more despite a scandal-riddled campaign – could be the kingmakers.

Andrews is refusing to cut a deal with the party he says has a toxic culture and says Labor provides the proven track record on progressive policies for the state.

“We need a strong, stable majority Labor government in this state …so we can keep on investing in the road, rail, and school infrastructure we need,” he told Nine on Saturday.

He deflected questions on the scandals that have dogged his first term as premier, including the “red shirts” rorts in which parliamentary allowances were used to fund Labor campaigners before the 2014 election.

He said voters cared more about what the government was doing for them and their families than scandals.

Despite polls pointing to a Labor win, Andrews said he was taking nothing for granted.

He arrived holding hands with his wife Cath at Albany Rise primary school in his seat of Mulgrave which Labor holds by 4.5%, considered marginal.

There were no comments for waiting media, only an over-the-shoulder “hello” to Liberal opponent Maree Davenport, before he dropped a coin in the collection tin for charity Aussie Dollar Drop and disappeared inside to vote.

“He holds the seat by only 1,600 votes,” Davenport, a former upper house member, told AAP. “A lot of people are extremely disappointed about a lot of things he’s done and hasn’t done.”

But nothing could wipe the smile off Andrews’ face as he confidently shook a few hands as a couple of people called “good luck Daniel”.

The Newspoll published by the Weekend Australian on Saturday indicates a two-party preferred Labor victory of 53.5%, leaving the Liberal-Nationals with 46.5%.

Other pre-election polls published in the Age and Herald Sun have delivered similar results, predicting Labor as the winner.

Labor currently holds a one-seat majority in the 88-seat parliament, while the Liberal-National coalition is on 38 and the Greens three.

Updated

Throughout the campaign, we’ve also taken a close look at some of the issues the parties have been talking about – and some that they haven’t as keen to talk about. These include: law and order, the environment, homelessness and housing, and family violence. Also, given the Andrews government’s ambitious agenda on social issues over the past four years, we’ve examined the key reforms that are at stake this election.

If you’re a Victorian and haven’t voted, you have about an hour and a half to do so. So hurry! We took a look at what the main parties were promising to help inform your decision.

And our resident cartoonist, First Dog On The Moon, also had some advice for the voting public.

Updated

Returning to the important issue of the #democracysausage. There have been a few developments.

And there might be a new challenger to the #democracysausage; the #democracyfalafel has apparently proved popular in the inner-city seat of Brunswick (where vegan sausages also exist proudly alongside the meat option). Corn fritters were also an option at another Brunswick booth.

Not everyone has been happy with the offerings at their polling station. I heard complaints about a lack of almond milk at a Coburg primary school earlier in the day. And there was also this:

Updated

Outside of Melbourne, one of the narratives to watch tonight will be whether any of the independent women running in various regional seats are able to cause an upset. As Gay Alcorn wrote in this feature story, Victorian women have been spurred on by the success of the federal member for Indi, Cathy McGowan.

There’s been a bit of colour and movement out at polling booths. Out in Eltham, Matthew Guy has this exchange with a voter who was, let’s say, pretty forthright in her prediction of the Coalition’s chances.

Wodonga independent Jacqui Hawkins might have the best campaign car going around.

Derryn Hinch, whose Justice party is vying for an upper house seat, has been at booths around Melbourne. Speaking of cars, there are unconfirmed reports Hinch turned up in a car with his name emblazoned on the side.

If you’re a regular Guardian reader, you’ll know we’ve published a series of in-depth, on-the-ground pieces from three Victorian electorates during the campaign. These are Morwell, in the once-heavily coal-dependent Latrobe Valley, Cranbourne in Melbourne’s booming south-east, and Brunswick in the city’s inner north, where Labor is trying to fend off a strong challenge from the Greens. Check out the articles below.

Updated

The Greens leader, Samantha Ratnam, started her day in the inner city seat of Brunswick, which her party wants to win from Labor.

The Greens are favourites in Brunswick and have a decent shot of winning Richmond, held by the planning minister Richard Wynne, a development that could force Labor into minority government.

Those hopes have been hampered by a disastrous campaign, with a candidate standing down over a sexual misconduct allegation and another under fire for once rapping misogynistic lyrics about date rape.

“(Labor) have tried to dismiss the Greens for 25 years, but every single time we defy them,” Ratnam said while voting in Brunswick.

“This Greens movement is here to stay; the movement is here to grow; the movement is here to transform politics right across this country and right across this state.”

Time for our first #democracysausage update, courtesy of AAP.

Bill Shorten may need a few more lessons on eating a democracy sausage before next year’s federal election.

The Melbourne-based federal Labor leader was voting in the Victorian election on Saturday when he was snapped taking a bite of the sausage sandwich. And it was awkward.

He did manage to bite the end though, unlike the time he bit the middle of the sausage sandwich during the 2016 federal election.

On Saturday, his wife, Chloe, was on hand to show him the way, with Shorten chomping into the barbecue treat.

For the record, the opposition leader doesn’t care if the onions are on top or the bottom of the sausage; he just likes onions.

Bill Shorten eats a sausage
Bill Shorten digs into a sausage sandwich as local candidate Danny Pearson looks on after voting at Moonee Ponds West Primary School in Melbourne on Saturday. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

Updated

Let’s take a step back quickly. The premier, Daniel Andrews, is vying for a second term, something his most recent predecessors – Denis Napthine, Ted Ballieu and John Brumby – have been unable to achieve. So, should voters give him another four years or does the opposition, which has campaigned hard on a law and order “crisis” in Victoria, deserve the chance to take over at Spring Street?

My colleague Gay Alcorn writes:

Compared with the federal government, it is functioning and stable – Andrews has been the leader the whole four years. “Delivering for all Victorians” is a pedestrian but apt slogan.

The opposition leader, Matthew Guy, has been out at his old primary school this morning. Guy was campaigning in the seat of Eltham along with the Liberal candidate there, Nick McGowan. Eltham, a suburban and semi-rural electorate in Melbourne’s north-east, is a target seat for the Coalition and will be crucial to its hopes of winning government. Labor holds the seat by 2.7%.

Despite the polls putting the opposition behind, Guy said he believed the statewide polls did not reflect the reality on the ground. The Liberals had campaigned hard at a local level, he said.

“We’ve done a lot of that, more than we have ever done before. Much more than our opponents. We hope it bears fruit tonight,” he said.

Guy’s mother, Vera, said: “He worked his butt off. He deserves a win.”

Updated

As I just mentioned, recent opinion polls have shown Labor is in front. The final poll of the campaign, published in the Australian on Saturday morning, put Labor ahead 53.5% to 46.5% on two-party terms.

In the final week of the campaign, the major parties finally released their costings, with Labor revealing it would borrow $25.6bn over the next 10 years to fund its ambitious infrastructure plans.

The two leaders went head to head during two debates, occasionally fierce ones. However, the most entertaining – and deliciously awkward – moment of the week, though, was Sky News presenter David Speers’ Clarke-and-Dawe-style interview with the Liberal candidate for Frankston. Check it out in our wrap of the week below.

Updated

The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, cast his vote this morning alongside his wife, Catherine. With the government seeking a second term, Labor heads into today’s election comfortably ahead in all recently published opinion polls. Given that observers believe a hung parliament is a possibility, Andrews has urged voters to hand Labor a majority.

“We need a strong, stable majority Labor government in this state and I would urge for all Victorians to vote for their local Labor candidate so we can keep on investing in the road, rail, and school infrastructure we need,” he told Channel Nine on Saturday.

Updated

Hello and welcome to Guardian Australia’s live coverage of the 2018 Victorian election. My name is Luke Henriques-Gomes.

Polls opened at 8am and the party leaders have already cast their votes. We’ll have all the latest news for you– including the best #democracysausage action – while the parties are out on the ground this afternoon making one final push for votes. The polls will close at 6pm.

Stay with us throughout the night for news and analysis of the count.

Updated

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