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Victoria's Loy Yang A power station will close as early as 2035. What does that mean for energy generation in the state?

Victoria's largest power station will close a decade earlier than expected as its owner, AGL, looks to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

The coal-powered Loy Yang A facility produces around 30 per cent of the state's electricity.

How will its closure in 2035 affect Victoria's ability to generate power?

Where does Victoria get its power from now?

The majority of Victoria's electricity, about two thirds, is generated from fossil fuels.

The vast majority of this comes from brown coal, with small amounts being generated from natural gas and oil.

The state's three brown coal plants are all in the Latrobe Valley: Loy Yang A and B, and Yallourn.

About a third of the state's power comes from renewable sources.

Roughly half of this is generated by wind farms, with the remainder coming from a combination of solar, hydro, biogas and bagasse, the fibrous material left over when sugar cane is crushed.

What facilities are set to close?

With AGL's announcement that Loy Yang A will shut down in 2035, the only coal-fired power plant without a date to be decommissioned is Loy Yang B, which is owned by Chinese company Chow Tai Fook Enterprises.

The Yallourn facility's owner, EnergyAustralia, announced last year that the plant will shut down in 2028 due to low wholesale electricity prices and rising operational costs.

The open-cut coal mine adjacent to the Yallourn station is the largest of its kind in Australia.

The Hazelwood coal-fired plant, also in the Latrobe Valley, was shuttered in 2017, while the Anglesea coal-fired plant closed down in 2015.

Observers say the accelerated closure of Loy Yang A has made it all the more crucial the government to expand the renewable energy sector.

"It puts a lot of pressure, appropriately, on government, and the industry, and the planners to work together, because at the moment they don't work together very well," the Grattan Institute's Tony Wood said.

What will our energy requirements be in 2035?

Within 13 years, two of Victoria's remaining three coal-fired power plants will have closed, necessitating other sources of affordable, reliable, low emissions replacement energy. 

Experts say new technologies will shape energy use, and generate new options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and manage the energy system.

The Victorian government has set a target of 40 per cent renewable energy generation by 2025 and 50 per cent by 2030.

The Australian Energy Market Operator says the electrification of businesses and the projected growth of the electric vehicle market will drive electricity consumption in Victoria up by around 20 per cent in the next 13 years.

"The challenge is to build enough wind and solar capacity and storage to replace the coal-fired generators. It will be an enormous undertaking that's going to take many years to achieve and a very great level of organisation by the government," Bruce Mountain, the director of the Victorian Energy Policy Centre, says.

What renewable energy projects are in the pipeline?

The Victorian government has created six renewable energy zones (REZ) in areas of regional Victoria where there is greatest potential for renewable energy generation.

It proposes immediately upgrading existing infrastructure in those areas to allow it to carry increased loads generated by renewables.

The government is also investigating the possibility of establishing Australia's first offshore wind sector and has recently commissioned a number of wind and solar panel farms.

The rapidly expanding rooftop solar panel scheme is expected to contribute 20 per cent of Victoria's renewable energy output by 2030.

But the big challenge will be building the transmission and storage network required for the booming renewables sector.

"The good news is, the cost of that renewable energy has come down dramatically," Mr Wood said.

"The actual energy is much cheaper than coal or gas.

"The trick is, that when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining we have to do something about that.

"We've got to build a lot of storage, a lot of transmission to connect all of that renewable energy into the grid."

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