Venezuelan voters will choose a new legislature on Sunday in an election whose outcome is expected to reflect frustrations with the country’s falling fortunes, likely placing parliament in the hands of the opposition for the first time in 16 years.
Voters queued early at polling stations, which opened at 6am across the country of 28 million people, and will remain open for 12 hours. Election officials expect the first results in by 10pm.
Amid a sharp economic downturn and spiralling inflation in this oil-rich but cash-strapped country, opinion polls have shown Venezuelans may be willing to give candidates of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) opposition a majority in the unicameral national assembly.
It would be the first turnaround in the legislature since the late Hugo Chávez set Venezuela on a socialist path, which has been followed by current president Nicolás Maduro, who was elected in 2013.
The respected Datanalisis polling firm’s latest measure of the nation’s mood showed 55.6% of voters saying they would choose an opposition candidate in their district, while 36.8% said they would vote for a ruling United Socialist party of Venezuela (PSUV) candidate.
Maduro has warned that an opposition win would be a setback to Chávez’s legacy of “21st century socialism”, although an opposition majority in the 167 seat assembly would not necessarily give it the necessary muscle to set the country on a different course.
“With the state firmly in Chávista control, an opposition win is unlikely to result in any meaningful change,” said Jason Marczak, the deputy director of the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based thinktank.
With a simple majority the opposition could pass amnesty laws that could free jailed opposition leaders, such as Leopoldo López, convicted earlier this year to 14 years for instigating violence in a highly politicised trial behind closed doors.
However, a two-thirds majority, which according to projections seems unlikely, would give the opposition the ability to dismiss cabinet ministers as well as organise a “recall referendum” on Maduro, whose term ends in early 2019.
In the event of defeat for the PSUV, the outgoing assembly could almost certainly extend the enabling laws or decrees that allow Maduro to bypass the legislature.
Either way, Venezuela is braced for a showdown in the assembly between the two dominant forces in the country’s politics, analysts say.
