Utah State Leads Six Teams Vying for #2 Seed in MW Tourney
Aggies have the inside track, but any slip-ups could cause chaos
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SDSU has already clinched the top spot, but how will things play out beneath them?
With the Mountain West regular season title already locked up by San Diego State—and with the Aztecs focusing on bigger things, like a potential #1 seed and a chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta—the major storyline in the league has shifted to who will finish in second place.
Currently, there are five teams leading the fight for the Mountain West’s silver medal: Utah State, Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State, and UNLV. The Aggies currently hold a half-game edge over the Rams and Wolf Pack, with the Broncos a full game back. UNLV is in sixth place, but their 8-6 record is only one and half games off Utah State’s pace.
Why is the race for second place so important?
Because with undefeated San Diego State on the other side of the bracket, the teams that finish in second and third will have a few extra games before they have to play the Aztecs. The teams that earn the #4 and #5 seed will face the difficult task of playing an above-average team in their first game and SDSU in the next.
With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, each game holds massive sway over seeding for the Mountain West Tournament. To give you an idea of just how contentious these next few weeks will be, take a look at some of the big matchups remaining on the schedule:
- 2/18 – Nevada @ New Mexico
- 2/18 – Colorado State @ UNLV
- 2/22 – UNLV @ San Diego State
- 2/23 – New Mexico @ Boise State
- 2/25 – Colorado State @ San Diego State
- 2/26 – Boise State @ UNLV
- 2/29 – San Diego State @ Nevada
- 2/29 – Utah State @ New Mexico
With so many important games remaining, there are myriad scenarios of how the standings will look on March 1. Here’s a quick investigation into how each team can find their way to second place in the Mountain West.
NEW MEXICO (17-10, 6-8 MW)
Remaining Schedule: 2/18 vs. Nevada, 2/23 @ Boise State, 2/26 @ Air Force, 2/29 vs. Utah State
Yes, that’s right. The Lobos are still in it.
New Mexico is currently in seventh place and below .500 in league play, but they have just enough rope that if everything goes right—and it really is almost everything—they could end up finishing in second place.
Here’s how: Wyoming would need to beat Utah State and Nevada. San Jose State would need to beat Colorado State, Utah State, and UNLV. Air Force would need to beat the Rams in Fort Collins. If all of that happens, and New Mexico takes care of its own business against the Wolf Pack, Broncos, and Falcons, it would set up a spectacular season finale in The Pit.
If the Lobos could win that game, then New Mexico, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Colorado State would all finish with a league record of 10-8. Tiebreaking procedures dictate that the team with the best record against these opponents will receive the highest seed. The Lobos and Aggies would move into a two-way tiebreaker by virtue each having gone 4-2 against these opponents.
The tiebreaker then moves to head-to-head record, which would give New Mexico the advantage—the final game of the season would be the only regular-season meeting of the two teams.
There is virtually no chance that all of that would happen. But the mere fact that it is even still a possibility is amazing, considering how quickly the Lobos have fallen off the map after their 15-3 start to the season.
UNLV (13-14, 8-6 MW)
Remaining Schedule: 2/18 vs. Colorado State, 2/22 @ San Diego State, 2/26 vs. Boise State, 2/29 @ San Jose State
It would still take some major chaos in the Mountain West for the Rebels to finish in second place, but it’s not as far-fetched as New Mexico’s bid. UNLV has plenty of roads into second place—even without a win over San Diego State.
Like New Mexico, the Rebels would really need Utah State to fall apart down the stretch, with the other three teams currently ahead of them stumbling as well. But UNLV could lose to the Aztecs and still finish 11-7. A handful of scenarios could see the Rebels sitting clear of everyone else in the #2 position.
Interestingly, if the Rebels can’t land in the #2 or #3 spot, they may actually have better luck down as the #6 or #7 team. They could stay away from San Diego State and will still have the benefit of playing at home for the Mountain West Tournament.
These scenarios are much, much more likely than the Rebels finishing second. But even more likely is that one of the next four teams will take home the silver. [CONTINUED]
BOISE STATE (17-10, 9-6 MW)
Remaining Schedule: 2/19 @ San Jose State, 2/23 vs. New Mexico, 2/26 @ UNLV
With just three games remaining in the league schedule, Boise State doesn’t have quite as much control of their destiny as some of the other teams on this list—but they’ve also got fewer opportunities to slip up in their pursuit of second place.
All three of their remaining games are very winnable, but they’ll need Utah State to stumble at least twice, thanks to Utah State holding the tiebreak advantage in most scenarios. That means that Boise State must be careful not to beat the spirit out of the Spartans on Wednesday.
It’s probably more likely that the Broncos finish in third place, which still wouldn’t be too bad for Boise State. The #3 position does mean that they are more likely to face tournament hosts UNLV, which will add a little extra difficulty to their first matchup in the bracket.
Boise State holds the tiebreaker advantage over Nevada and Colorado State in scenarios where all three teams are involved, thanks to a 75-64 win over the Rams in the teams’ only game this year. Nevada split both season series against the Broncos and Rams. Boise State also holds a more oblique tiebreaking edge over Nevada because of their record against Utah State.
It’s safe to say that the Broncos are one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Mountain West’s uneven scheduling this season, along with Utah State.
COLORADO STATE (18-9, 9-5 MW)
Remaining Schedule: 2/18 @ UNLV, 2/22 vs. San Jose State, 2/25 @ San Diego State, 2/29 vs. Air Force
Despite currently sitting in a tie for third place, the Rams are in a difficult position to move up in the Mountain West standings. That’s because they are currently 1-4 against Utah State, Nevada, and Boise State and don’t hold tiebreakers over any of them.
That said, there is still a way through for Niko Medved’s club. Colorado State can finish all alone in second place with a 12-6 record—it will just take a few key upsets along the way. Most importantly, like all of the other scenarios so far, the linchpin will be Utah State. If they drop two of three games, it could create a situation where the Aggies, Broncos, and Wolf Pack all finish 11-7. Another, more plausible scenario would see Colorado State tied with Utah State at 12-6, which would see the Rams secure the #3 seed in the conference tournament.
This, of course, skips over the possibility that the Rams do the unthinkable and beat San Diego State when the Aztecs come to the Moby on February 25. A win in that game would not only put Colorado State in the national headlines, but it would also crack open a wealth of additional scenarios that see them taking over the #2 spot.
NEVADA (16-10, 9-5 MW)
Remaining Schedule: 2/18 @ New Mexico, 2/22 vs. Fresno State, 2/25 @ Wyoming, 2/29 vs. San Diego State
Things have been going pretty well for Steve Alford during his first season in Reno, but a second-place finish is unlikely thanks to the team currently ahead of them. Still, certain results would open the door for the Wolf Pack to claim the second spot—including one massive upset possibility.
While it’s never fun playing at The Pit, Nevada’s next three games are extremely winnable. If Utah State also wins their next two games, it would send the Wolf Pack and Aggies into the final day of the season in a tie for second place at 12-5.
Cue the fireworks.
Because Utah State holds the head-to-head advantage, thanks to the aforementioned uneven league schedule, Nevada needs to finish above the Aggies in the standings. That means that they would need Utah State to fail in their final test of the season in Albuquerque.
But that’s not all.
To complete this dream scenario, Nevada would also need to pull off what no other team in America has been able to manage thus far: they would need to beat San Diego State.
If they win out—and if Steve Alford gets a little help from his old employers—the Wolf Pack could roll into the MW Tournament in the silver medal position. Much more likely is that Colorado State and Boise State both stumble down the stretch while Nevada goes 3-1 with a loss to the Aztecs.
In that scenario, the Aggies would become #2, the Wolf Pack would be #3, and the Broncos, Rams, and Rebels would make up the next three spots.
UTAH STATE (21-7, 10-5 MW)
Remaining Schedule: 2/19 vs. Wyoming, 2/25 vs. San Jose State, 2/29 @ New Mexico
The Aggies clearly have the edge in the race for second. All they need to do is win out against a favorable schedule. Utah State was picked as the clear favorites coming into the season, so they will want to at least retain some dignity by snagging the next spot in the pecking order.
As you probably noticed, every other team is relying on the Aggies to lose one, two, or all three of their remaining games. But with home games against the two worst teams in the conference, most of those scenarios are already far-fetched.
Utah State’s final game of the season does pose a challenge, as The Pit is one of the toughest places to play in the league. That said, the Lobos have had a trainwreck of a season after a fast start, and if New Mexico comes into the game on a losing streak, they may not have the legs to slap the Aggies with an upset.
But the most likely situation is that Craig Smith’s team will slide easily into the #2 position and will have the inside track to face San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship Game.
And really, that was always supposed to be the case.
The teams have just gone a roundabout way to get there.
Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.
