USC vs Oregon: Pac-12 Championship prediction and game preview.
USC vs Oregon: Pac-12 Championship Broadcast
Date: Friday, December 18
Game Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Network: FOX
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USC (5-0) vs Oregon (3-2) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Pac-12 Championship
– USC probably has a weeeeeee bit of a better shot at the College Football Playoff than you might think. It would take an amazing performance by the Trojans, an ugly blowout, and a whole lot of luck from Notre Dame beating Clemson in the ACC Championship, and a Northwestern upset over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game wouldn’t hurt, but at least there would be a decent discussion if the Pac-12 champion is unbeaten. But …
– Oregon is pretty good at this whole CFP dream-killing thing. It was hardly a sure thing that Utah was going to the College Football Playoff last year if it won the Pac-12 Championship – Oklahoma would’ve been in the discussion – but it had a better-than-decent shot.
Oregon 37, Utah 15 ended that, and the game wasn’t even that close. It’s been a rough few weeks for the Ducks with two straight losses, but the season is made – and there’s possibly a trip to the New Year’s Six – with a win.
– These two have played fantastically fun games throughout this abbreviated season. The last three Oregon games were all decided by four points or fewer, and USC has played three thrillers – coming back late to beat Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA – and a fun one against Utah. This should be fun.
Why USC, Oregon Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why USC Will Win, Why Oregon Will Win, USC vs Oregon Prediction
Why USC Will Win
– The passing game has warmed up. Even with 381 yards and two touchdowns through the air in the opening win over Arizona State, this looked and played like a team fighting through the rust for a while. The O wasn’t perfect against UCLA, but it worked when it had to, and now Kedon Slovis has thrown five touchdown passes in each of his last two games. Making things even better …
– The Oregon pass rush hasn’t been anything special. It started to work in the win over Cal a few weeks ago, but there hasn’t been enough pressure in the backfield over the course of the season. The USC offensive line hasn’t been a rock in pass protection, but it shouldn’t be overwhelmed.
– Oregon has a massive turnover issue. It was able to slip by UCLA even though it was able to come up with four takeaways and finished with a +3 turnover margin. The team was a -10 in the other four games.
USC might not always be sharp, but it’s not getting killed by the takeaways and the D has been swarming, coming up with three turnovers or more in four of the five games.
– Championship Week Schedule & Predictions
Why Oregon Will Win
– The offense might not be rocking and rolling like it’s supposed to, but it’s dominant when it needs to move the chains. There were issues in the win against UCLA, but overall, converting on third downs hasn’t been a problem – the Ducks lead the Pac-12 in third down conversions – and the USC D will give up a few plays against decent-tempo teams.
– There’s not enough of a running game for Oregon worry about. Stopping the run was a massive issue against Oregon State’s Jermar Jefferson and UCLA, and the defense has allowed 12 touchdown runs over the five games. That won’t be a problem against a USC offense that’s almost all about the passing game and can’t get going on the ground when it tries – the ground game has been worse over the last three weeks.
– USC has been playing with fire way too often. If the passing game isn’t clicking, there’s a lull, and there’s a problem. The Duck pass defense has allowed just three touchdown passes over the last three weeks and it’s not getting beaten enough deep. Yes, the Oregon pass rush hasn’t been good enough, but if it get get to Slovis, the defense will get off the field.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, USC vs Oregon Prediction, Pac-12 Championship History
What’s Going To Happen
USC will be in for yet another fight.
Oregon will come out looking great. The defensive line will get into the backfield a bit more than normal, the offense will score quickly, and all of the momentum will be on the side of the defending Pac-12 champs. And then things will stall.
USC will settle in, Kedon Solvis will find a rhythm, and most importantly, the Trojan defense will start to play better. Oregon doesn’t have the offense to slow things down and hold a lead, and it’s going against a team that’s making a living off of taking advantage of second half openings.
It’ll be a good, strong win for the Trojans, but it won’t be the dominant, splashy performance needed to make the jump into the College Football Playoff.
Pac-12 Championship: USC vs Oregon Prediction, Line
USC 38, Oregon 34
Bet on USC vs Oregon with BetMGM
USC -3, o/u: 62
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 4.5
5: Mank
1: Saved By The Bell
Pac-12 Championship History
2019 Oregon 37, Utah 15
2018 Washington 10, Utah 3
2017 USC 31, Stanford 28
2016 Washington 41, Colorado 10
2015 Stanford 41, USC 22
2014 Oregon 51, Arizona 13
2013 Stanford 38, Arizona State 14
2012 Stanford 27, UCLA 24
2011 Oregon 49, UCLA 31
