EUGENE, Ore. — Lincoln Riley fielded a postgame question from an alleged media member Saturday about an Oregon fan’s sign on College GameDay that poked fun at the USC coach’s lucrative contract. As if a GameDay sign has any bearing on anything.
“That might be the dumbest question I’ve been asked as long as I’ve been a head coach,” Riley said, justifiably put off. “You ought to feel a little embarrassed to ask that.”
As ham-fisted as that question was, Riley has not delivered sufficient return on USC’s reported 10-year, $110 million investment in 2022. The Trojans swiped him from Oklahoma with the expectation that he would be their next McKay-Robinson-Carroll. Instead he’s been an extension of Clay Helton.
Helton’s record through four seasons as the full-time head coach at USC was 34–18. Riley’s is 34–17 heading into next Saturday’s regular-season finale against rival UCLA. The 42–27 loss to Oregon eliminated the Trojans from contention for the Big Ten championship and the College Football Playoff. This 8–3 season has been a course correction back toward what USC is supposed to be as a program, but it’s still going to end short of what Riley was paid the big bucks to deliver.
Put it this way: If he were at LSU, the governor would have fired him by now. Brian Kelly, who followed Riley in the momentous, big-money, late-December coaching carousel, went 34–14 with the Tigers.
Riley put some spin on the loss here in Autzen Stadium, calling it a “heavyweight battle” with “two really good teams going at it.” Oregon is a really good team. USC is a good team that remains a cut below really good.
The Trojans are 6–0 and pretty dazzling in the L.A. Coliseum, with victories over Michigan and Iowa. They’re 2–3 on the road, and while there is no shame in losing at 9–2 Notre Dame and 10–1 Oregon, the defeat at Illinois looms large. And while USC was competitive against both the Fighting Irish and Ducks, the combined margin of defeat in those two games was a convincing 25 points.
That continues a couple of themes of the Riley era: The Trojans are 21–5 in the Coliseum and 13–12 elsewhere. They’re 7–10 against ranked opponents, including an 0–7 mark against teams that finished the year in the Top 10. (That has a good chance of becoming an 0–9 mark, if Notre Dame and Oregon remain in the Top 10 through the end of the season.)
As a head coach, Riley has been about as good as his quarterbacks. When armed with a Heisman Trophy finalist and future NFL starter—Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams—his teams are 65–16. His other three seasons—one at Oklahoma with Spencer Rattler, two at USC with Miller Moss and/or Jayden Maiava—are 24–11. Really good with an elite QB, just good with a non-superstar.
An elite QB helps cover up the chronic shortfalls that come with a Riley defense. A less-than-elite QB cannot outscore opponents that are racking up yards and points in large numbers.
Illinois hung 34 on USC, with quarterback Luke Altmyer racking up 356 total yards. Notre Dame also put 34 on the board, with Jeremiyah Love running for 228. And now Oregon hit the Trojans for 42, outrushing USC by 127 yards.
But not all those points are on the USC’s defense, because the special teams also had notable breakdowns. Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price ran a kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown, and Saturday, Oregon punt returner Malik Benson took one 85 to the house.
And truth be told, the Benson return of a line-drive rocket from punter Sam Johnson was only part of the special-teams breakdown by USC in this high-stakes game. Placekicker Ryon Sayeri doinked a 27-yard field goal off the upright. He also shanked a kickoff out of bounds for a 10-yard improvement in field position for the Ducks on their first scoring drive. A leaping penalty by USC negated a missed Oregon field goal, extending a drive that ended in a touchdown. And a punt gunner hit an Oregon return man after he signaled for a fair catch, gifting the Ducks 15 free yards on their second TD drive.
That’s five major errors that helped Oregon score 28 points and deprived USC of three. It also undercut a Trojans defense that had some good moments, making a fourth-and-1 stop and producing just the sixth interception of Ducks quarterback Dante Moore this season. Of course, the USC defense also failed to get the fourth-quarter stop it had to have, as Oregon drove 79 yards in 11 plays for the clinching touchdown with 5:30 to play.
The special teams lapses and the perpetual lack of a shutdown defense are indicators of an incomplete team, reinforcing the assertion that Riley really only cares about building great offenses and dialing up cool ball plays. That might not be totally fair, but it’s hard to refute when the product is rarely well-rounded.
In Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane and freshman Tanook Hines, who had a breakout game Saturday (six catches for 141 yards), Riley has a receiving corps that ranks among the best in the country. Maiava is a savvy operator of the offense, even when playing behind a patchwork line.
But the No. 12 defense in the Big Ten isn’t going to win any games for USC. Neither is a kicking game and coverage teams that perform the way Riley’s did here and in South Bend.
Riley can say, justifiably, that USC is better year over year after the bottoming-out thud of 7–6 in 2024. He has an excellent recruiting class coming onboard in ’26, which is another reason for optimism.
But four years in, Riley still hasn’t given USC what it expected when it gave him that massive contract. More Helton than Carroll, more sizzle than steak, more excuses than accomplishments. While he can say the best is yet to come, USC fans have to wonder why it took Curt Cignetti and Indiana—Indiana—far less time to come into Autzen Stadium and win.
Lincoln Riley left here talking about a few plays here and there in a 15-point loss. Cignetti left with a 10-point victory and is on his way to both the Big Ten championship game and the College Football Playoff, two things Riley hasn’t sniffed since arriving in Los Angeles.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as USC’s $110 Million Gamble on Lincoln Riley Trending Toward a Disappointing Clay Helton 2.0.
