Well, that escalated quickly. The preamble to last year’s USA v Mexico clash, for the right to represent Concacaf at the Confederations Cup, seems impossibly quaint at this moment. To pick out a couple of random phenomena, Fox Soccer were forced on the defensive for a video montage that seemed to make light of Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, while on the Mexican side it was possible to walk through the Rose Bowl parking lots before the game, and see Trump piñatas dotted among the portable BBQs. But it still all seemed like so much carnival posturing on both sides.
The symbolism just went up a notch after Trump’s presidential election victory. The soccer rivalry is charged enough in the best of times, but under the circumstances there’s now an additional level to add into the history of Dos a Cero. So while we can make some guesses at the technical side of what’s coming up, it’s hard to say how the cultural side of the occasion will play out, when emotions are still raw. There is of course the possibility that love ends up beating hate on away goals ...
Anyway, to the game. And while there’s no such thing as just a game, however much anyone might want to wish such an abstract concept into being, the odds are that a game of football is about to break out on Friday. So let’s talk about that...
Dos a Cero
... actually, before we get to the game, let’s think for a moment about the streak of 2-0 US wins over Mexico in Columbus — a streak which now goes back four World Cup cycles. It’s been a remarkable run, and has become a beloved part of US fan folklore, but it’s tempting to wonder if Dos a Cero has become a distraction as much as an inspiration for the US going into this game. There’s work to be done and the context of this particular game, let alone the opponents, will be difficult enough without either set of players losing sight of each phase of the game.
And the context, aside from all the geo-political distraction, is awkward. The US roster has shifted emphasis towards drawing on MLS players in recent years, especially since the great reverse-migration that started in 2014. And those players have either just finished their domestic seasons or – as in the cases of Jermaine Jones, Tim Howard, Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore – they are locked into playoff campaigns. Then there are the likes of Sacha Kljestan and Alan Gordon, whose domestic seasons ended in disappointment last weekend. The international break is coming at an awkward time for some key players.
The timing of the Mexico and Costa Rica games (which on paper represent the second and third hardest games the US will play in qualifying, after Mexico away) is awkward too. The Hex is starting some 20 months out from the World Cup, this time round. In the last World Cup cycle, this final qualifying round did not start until February 2013, the year before the tournament, and while the US did not get off to an ideal start (an opening loss in Honduras was the prelude to the coach being undermined to the press by anonymous playing staff, and it took a chance goal in a Colorado blizzard to wobble the campaign back on track), they were not in the generally fatigued, demob state that marks the final games of any calendar year. These games have the potential to set the tone for their campaign, before the team are truly prepared for the campaign to start.
USA
Not a lot of surprises in the roster picked to play Mexico – the convincing claims made by the likes of Christian Pulisic and Kljestan in the most recent round of games was always likely to see both men retained as intriguing elements of a rapidly transforming US midfield. Kljestan picked up a nasty knock in the MLS playoffs last week, but you’d have to imagine Klinsmann might want him to see minutes, especially against a Mexican team that has struggled for coherence at times and could be vulnerable to Kljestan’s ability to drift between the lines.
Of the players on the periphery, keep an eye on whether Klinsmann gets an opportunity over these two games to tie Cameron Carter-Vickers of Tottenham to the US by giving him a substitute appearance. Other emerging players such as Caleb Stanko and Lynden Gooch are also on the roster, but just how big a part they play is questionable. Still, they might feel good about becoming more fixed in the team as the US gets deeper into next year and the endgame of qualification.
If anything, the major surprise might be the inclusion of Alan Gordon as a late replacement for the injured Jordan Morris. Gordon had a decent climax to the season with LA Galaxy, and kept Robbie Keane out of the starting line-up upon the latter’s return from injury, but he hardly represents the future. Still, Gordon offers a physical presence to trouble Mexico on set pieces. The US have already talked about Mexico’s vulnerability in the realtive cold of Columbus, and the looming presence of Gordon might just add insult to injury during testing periods of the game.
Still, for large portions of the game the presence of Gordon, not to mention Aron Johannsson, in the roster ought to be moot. Jozy Altidore is playing very well for Toronto right now – scoring a kind of budget-Van-Basten goal in the rout of NYC FC last weekend, and generally looking like the all-round striker who promised so much for the US going into the last World Cup, before his injury changed the entire team set-up. How Altidore leads the line and how much Mexico commits to managing that in lieu of pushing forward themselves will be a key to the game.
Mexico
The good news for Juan Carlos Osorio is that the team has lost only once since he took over as manager almost a year ago, though what a loss: a 7-0 battering by a rampant Chile team at the Copa America Centenario this summer.
Osorio has so far failed to ignite much enthusiasm among the Mexican fans, and despite the generally promising results it’s hard to point to any particular performance, or even phase of play, where the project looks coherent.
That’s always been the criticism of Osorio sides. He is detail-oriented and loves the minutiae of analyzing players (when he was coach for the New York Red Bulls his perpetual notebook scribbling and subsequent bizarre line-up tinkering was the subject of plenty of satire), but the suspicion has always been that when it comes to putting the parts of the disassembled engine back together, he doesn’t always get it to run.
And Osorio isn’t helped by the fact that the man he replaced, Miguel Herrera, is a man-motivator who has gone on to take Tijuana to the top of the Liga MX standings. Herrera infamously followed up his cult sideline appearances at the World Cup by going full self-caricature at last year’s Gold Cup – winning the trophy, then punching a reporter at Philadelphia airport on the way home and being sacked.
Osorio could not be a greater contrast, but instead of being seen as a safe pair of fans he’s still living in the shadow of Herrera, who’s still regarded as the favorite to take his old job back if Osorio stumbles.
Still, for all the motivational deficit, Osorio’s analytical ability is not really in question – and there aren’t many arguments with the roster he has put together, nor the methodical nature of his preparations. If previous Mexican managers viewed dismissing US domestic soccer as a matter of pride, Osorio has had cautious appreciation for MLS and has extensively scouted the opponents who play in the league.
As for his own team, Osorio, like US counterpart Klinsmann, is looking to put a premium on players with experience in Europe. He has singled out Marco Fabian (Eintracht Frankfurt), Diego Reyes (Espanyol) and Carlos Salcedo (Fiorentina) as bellwethers of a new era of Mexican players plying their trade in the big European leagues. Of course, everyone knows about Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez in this regard, or Gio dos Santos for that matter (even if the latter is now back in North America with LA Galaxy), but it’s the more general trend of what’s happening with young players that interests Osorio. Fabian, Reyes and Salcedo are all in the roster to face the US, by the way.
And of that trio, Reyes is perhaps one of the keys to Osorio’s approach. The coach has put a premium on the team becoming more physical and believes it’s important that the team have at least six good headers of the ball. And Reyes’ position of defensive midfielder is one area in particular where Osorio has tried to put emphasis.
The truism about games between Mexico and the US is that Mexico will have more possession and will try to push forward, overloading wide positions, while the US will have the advantage on set pieces and look to break swiftly on the counter. Some of that may hold true on Friday night. But just as importantly, keep an eye out for a more cautious Mexico, with more defensive inclinations than we’re used to.
Whether that helps Osorio in the longer term, given the cultural resistance he faces among the media and fans, is another matter. But for Friday at least, he’ll be sticking to his principles.
