As Jacinda Ardern prepares to lead a trade mission to the United States, there are familiar obstacles to a more fulsome economic relationship – but signs of a genuine American commitment to deepening ties in the Indo-Pacific region
The purpose of the US Business Summit may have been to grow economic ties between New Zealand and the world superpower, but it was little surprise that the Ukraine war dominated much of the discussion.
“I can't recall a period – I've been working on foreign policy for 35 years – in which so much is in play and the stakes are so high,” Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell told the summit, describing the images of Russia’s violent invasion as “almost unimaginable”.
The conflict had created deep uncertainty – but it had also sparked an unprecedented sense of unity and community, he said, arguing the response from Asian nations was born from "a desire to make sure that what happens in Ukraine is a cautionary tale, and that no one thinks about replicating such an invasion or set of actions in the Indo Pacific."
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern drew on that sense of community in her own speech, looking back to previous Labour governments in an effort to draw a line to the current global uncertainty.
As Michael Joseph Savage’s Cabinet had faced the Great Depression, and Peter Fraser’s World War II, so too was Ardern’s administration dealing with both the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Now is another of those times when we as leaders, and as a nation, are reminded of what we stand for and not just to take a stand but to act on those values.”
It was those values which had so often bonded New Zealand to the US over the decades, she said, while still following an independent foreign policy (the latter caveat perhaps an effort to address criticism from the left about the Government’s march to war in Ukraine).
“When we see a threat to the rules-based order we rely on, we act. Distance is not our deciding factor, and nor is the size of our contribution.”
But keeping the peace was not just for soldiers, with Ardern noting the trade principles which had formed in the wake of war as encouraging both economic and political prosperity.
“For an effective American approach in the region, there must be an optimistic, engaged economic and commercial element. It's essential - in fact, in many respects, it is our ticket to the big game.” - Kurt Campbell
If that served as a subtle allusion to the need for greater American engagement in the economic sphere, it was made more explicit when the Prime Minister yet again expressed a desire for the US to enter the CPTPP - not just for reasons of national self-interest.
“It remains really important for the United States to be present and engaged in the economic architecture of our region. Because resilience and stability in our region is not solely defined by defence or military arrangements, but relationships in many forms.”
That is not a new argument, nor is it unique to New Zealand, but that economic gap was nonetheless a constant feature of the day’s discussions.
Myron Brilliant, the executive vice president of the US Chamber of Commerce, said the US “has got to get back in the game”, while Campbell himself conceded there was a missing piece of the Indo-Pacific puzzle.
“For an effective American approach in the region, there must be an optimistic, engaged economic and commercial element. It's essential - in fact, in many respects, it is our ticket to the big game.”
Into that gap, at least in theory, goes the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, an initiative first pitched by Biden last October but for which there is still more bone than meat.
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo did not do much to fill in the details in a brief, pre-recorded speech to the summit which reiterated the framework’s four ‘pillars’: fair and resilient trade; supply chain resilience; infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonisation; and tax and anti-corruption.
One thing it isn’t, however, is a traditional trade agreement. There are no real market access concessions or efforts to address “tariff barriers” as the Office of the US Trade Representative put it.
Ardern has nonetheless flagged New Zealand’s intention to sign up, noting the appeal of decarbonisation commitments as well as work on digital trade rules.
US in Pacific: 'Do more on areas that matter'
But David Capie, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, questioned whether such a limited deal would be enough to sway Southeast Asian nations, while Brilliant suggested US Trade Representative Katherine Tai had underestimated the political appetite for a more generous offer.
“I think there's more support on Capitol Hill than Ambassador Tai realises to do something on market access to get Vietnam and other countries in.”
American domestic sentiment on trade is still a problem, as Center for a New American Security chief executive Richard Fontaine noted when describing Washington as “a prisoner of our domestic politics and the unpopularity of trade right now”.
However, Fontaine said there was an exception to the political polarisation dogging the country - initiatives focused on strategic competition, such as the billions in American aid which has gone to Ukraine.
China’s moves in the Indo-Pacific fit firmly in that basket, so it was little surprise to hear Campbell outline an intensive plan for US engagement in the region.
The country’s diplomatic presence in the Pacific would be ramped up, while there would be funding for the Pacific Islands Forum and aid targeted where the nations themselves wanted support, such as on climate change and illegal fishing.
“For the United States to be effective in the Pacific, we must do more, and we must do more on areas that matter.”
The leaders of ASEAN nations would meet Biden at a special summit in Washington next week, Campbell said, while Pacific leaders would be invited to the White House later this year.
Whether Ardern herself will make it to the president’s residence during her trade trip to the US later this month is less certain.
The sense of unity that has formed in the wake of tragedy in Ukraine is unlikely to dissipate for some time, and nor is the American recognition that it must do what it can to avoid any similar scenes in the Indo-Pacific.
Asked by moderator Fran O’Sullivan whether she hoped to receive an invitation to the White House, Ardern at first dodged the question before offering a non-committal, bordering on pessimistic, response the second time around.
“We haven't finalised the programme but one thing I am very aware of is that we are at a time where geopolitical issues, in Europe and in our own region, are pretty intense.”
The Prime Minister’s critics will undoubtedly seize on a failure to visit 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue as a sign of cracks in the relationship, but her observation about the scale of the Biden administration’s foreign policy commitments is a reasonable one.
While dates for her trip are yet to be released, the one event officially locked in is her delivery of Harvard’s commencement address on May 26, which fits within a parliamentary recess from May 20 to 30.
But Biden will spend roughly half of that window in Japan and Korea for both bilateral meetings and a gathering of Quad leaders, which would leave a precious few days in which schedules can be cleared and a meeting arranged (without any unexpected interruptions from Putin or other actors).
There will surely still be a dogged effort on both sides to make it happen, given it has been eight years since a New Zealand leader last made it to the White House - but it would not be all that surprising if it was put in the too hard basket, at least for the time being.
That would undoubtedly be a disappointment for Ardern and her team.
But the sense of unity that has formed in the wake of tragedy in Ukraine is unlikely to dissipate for some time, and nor is the American recognition that it must do what it can to avoid any similar scenes in the Indo-Pacific.
