The United States is “on a trajectory” toward authoritarian rule, according to a sobering new intelligence-style assessment by former US intelligence and national security officials, who warn that democratic backsliding is accelerating under the Trump administration – and may soon become entrenched without organized resistance.
The report, titled Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment of Democratic Decline, was released on Thursday by the Steady State, a network of more than 340 former officers of the CIA, the NSA, the state department and other national security agencies.
To conduct the assessment, the authors applied the same analytic methods used by US intelligence agencies to assess the fragility of democracies abroad but turned them inward for what the group called a “first-of-its-kind” analysis of domestic democratic decline.
“We wrote it because the same tools we once used to assess foreign risks now show unmistakable warning signs at home,” the group said in a statement upon its release.
The authors conclude with “moderate to high confidence” that the US is moving toward what scholars call “competitive authoritarianism”, a system in which elections and courts continue to function, but are “systematically manipulated” to consolidate executive power and weaken checks and balances. According to the assessment, these trends are increasingly visible in the US, as part of a broader effort by Donald Trump in his second presidential term to “ensure loyalty and ideological conformity” across the federal government.
“The speed with which we have devolved away from a fully functioning democracy is startling to me,” Gail Helt, a former CIA analyst and a member of the Steady State, said on a call with reporters after the assessment was published on Thursday. “In most cases, it takes longer than nine months to get where we are.”
Since returning to the White House, the president has pardoned January 6 rioters who assaulted police, fired independent watchdogs, purged career officials viewed as disloyal, publicly urged his attorney general to prosecute political opponents, deployed troops to US cities, attacked judges who ruled against him, threatened universities and restricted press freedom – all while testing the boundaries of executive power in ways federal courts have repeatedly deemed to be unlawful and unconstitutional.
Just last week, Trump’s justice department indicted Letitia James, the New York attorney general who successfully sued him for fraud, and separately charged the former FBI director James Comey, a longtime political adversary. He has also called for jailing the Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, and the Chicago mayor, Brandon Johnson, both Democrats who opposed his deployment of federal troops there.
The speed at which the administration was moving made it difficult to complete the assessment, Steven Cash, executive director of the Steady State, told reporters. “We would finish a draft and then five things would happen,” he said, adding that the document was published as a “baseline” that could be updated with new developments.
While the report mirrors the “finished intelligence” model used by the US intelligence community, the assessment was prepared by former analysts who no longer work in government and relied entirely on open-source material such as news reports, public statements and independent watchdog analyses, as opposed to classified intelligence. Its authors also emphasize that they were not driven by politics, but by what they saw as a need for a “cold, analytic look” at how the indicators of democratic backsliding applied to the US.
“These are people who have seen these indicators develop in countries that shifted dramatically away from democracy towards authoritarianism,” Larry Pfeiffer, a former senior intelligence official who spent two decades at the NSA, told reporters on Thursday. “And we’re seeing those things happening in our country today.”
Among the key indicators of democratic decline identified in the report: the expansion of executive power through unilateral decrees and emergency authorities; the politicization of the civil service and federal law enforcement; attempts to erode judicial independence through strategic appointments and “noncompliance” with court rulings or investigations; a weakened and increasingly ineffective Congress; partisan manipulation of electoral systems and administration; and the deliberate undermining of civil society, the press and public trust.
“We judge that the primary driver of the US’s increasing authoritarianism is the increased frequency of executive branch overreach,” the assessment states. It also cites a “worrying” shift in public opinion among Americans, pointing to surveys that show a growing share who think “having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections” is a “very good or fairly good system”.
Political scientists and human rights activists have increasingly drawn comparisons between the US and countries like Hungary or Turkey, where elected leaders retained power by weakening institutional checks while preserving a democratic facade. Helt also drew a comparison to Italy under Benito Mussolini “because of the relationship between organized religion and the state”.
The Steady State assessment is echoed by democracy scholars and other analyses. A September Bright Line Watch survey found that expert and public assessments of US democracy have dropped to their lowest levels since 2017. On a 0–100 scale, the public rated American democracy at just 49; experts rated it 54.
“Absent organized resistance by institutions, civil society and the public, the United States is likely to continue along a path of accelerating democratic erosion, risking further consolidation of executive dominance and a loss of credibility as a model of democracy abroad,” the assessment concludes.
On the call, several speakers pointed to the upcoming No Kings protest as a potentially meaningful show of public resistance to the Trump administration.
