Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Matthew Weaver (now), Claire Phipps, Scott Bixby and Tom McCarthy (earlier

US election: final campaign day – as it happened

Supporters look on as Hillary Clinton speaks during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh.
Supporters look on as Hillary Clinton speaks during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Hillary Clinton has a 70% chance of winning the election, according to a polling-day email from the respected pollster Nate Silver.

That’s up from a 65% chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5% from 2.9%.

As a lot of you noticed, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. We don’t think that’s a particularly meaningful metric, because the forecasts are probabilistic — Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 54% from 48%, for instance, which is nontrivial but not an especially large change. Still, we know it’s something a lot of readers follow. It’s unlikely that any further states will flip to Clinton in our final forecast, as she’s too far behind in Ohio, the next-closest state. It’s possible that Florida and North Carolina could flip back to Trump by tomorrow morning, though probably not Nevada, where Clinton’s lead is a bit larger.

Who is to blame for not stopping Trump sooner?

Few suspects spared a mention in Jonathan Freedland’s hall of shame. They include the other Republican presidential candidates such as Jeb Bush, Marco and Ted Cruz who “allowed themselves to be streamrollered by a reality TV host and serially bankrupted businessman”. But also “Trump’s trio of enablers: Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich.”

Those three horsemen of the Republican apocalypse conspired in the lie that a snake-oil salesman was fit to be president – and destroyed what remained of their reputations in the process.

Plus Trump’s running mate Mike Pence: “the defender of family values who has served as the running mate of a thrice-married, serially adulterous, self-confessed grabber of women.”

Freedland also rounds on the “indulgence on a epic scale” of the media. And there are cameos for Julian Assange and Vladimir Putin.

And finally there’s a dig at the US electorate:

Some blame surely attaches to the Americans who let Trump keep up the bullying and the bigotry and voted for him anyway. There is no escaping the fact that north of 40% of the US electorate have been prepared to vote for Trump despite everything that he has said and done. One poll found 22% of Trump’s own supporters believed he would start a nuclear war. They thought that, but were prepared to vote for him anyway. None of them will be able to say: “We didn’t know.”

Here’s video of Hillary Clinton’s star-studded final campaign rally. Lady Gaga and Bon Jovi were on hand to sing Living on a Prayer before introducing the Democratic candidate.

Lady Gaga and Bon Jovi back Hillary Clinton at final campaign rally

Unlike the Clinton campaign, Trump and his team chose not to pose for pictures as his plane returned from his final rally, notes AP’s Jill Colvin.

Speaking to a packed crowd in a community college gymnasium in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Trump outlined his closing message that “this election will decide whether we are ruled by a corrupt political class or by yourselves, the people”.

Sabrina Siddiqui reports on Clinton’s biggest closing rally in Philadelphia – Obama, Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi and all.

Hillary Clinton emerges from the plane with Bill at her side. Wearing bright red she waves at her supporters with both red-gloved hands. She also claps and looks very chipper.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign plane has just returned home to Westchester County Airport in New York, after her final rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.

CNN has live footage of members of her campaign team staggering off the plane. It also showed Bill Clinton milling about in the plane at the top of the steps.

Updated

(Some) votes counted

Election day has been and gone for three small towns in New Hampshire, which – thanks to the quirks of the electoral system – count their votes as soon as the clock strikes midnight. If anyone still uses striking clocks any more.

The turnouts weren’t huge numbers-wise, but then again, nor are the populations.

Caution: read nothing into these results.

Dixville Notch

Hillary Clinton: 4 votes

Donald Trump: 2 votes

Gary Johnson: 1 vote

Mitt Romney (write-in): 1 vote

Millsfield

Trump: 16

Clinton: 4

Bernie Sanders (write-in): 1

Hart’s Location

Clinton: 17

Trump: 14

Johnson: 3

Sanders (write-in): 2

John Kasich/Sanders (write-in): 1

If you’re wondering how the stock markets are reacting to election day, Graeme Wearden has you covered over on the business live blog:

Latest election polls

Where are the polls as the US tips into election day (nearly there on the west coast too now)?

FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 70.9% chance of winning:

The Reuters/Ipsos state of the nation study puts Clinton on a 90% likelihood of victory.

Votes-wise, the New York Times sees Clinton on 46% and Trump on 42.9%.

Real Clear Politics four-way national average – that is, including fringe candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein – also puts Clinton ahead, but by only 2.2 percentage points.

A BBC poll of polls gives her a slightly more comfortable cushion of 48% v 44%.

As ever, read Mona Chalabi on the polls and what they are/aren’t telling you:

The nation’s first black president has urged US citizens to send the first woman to the White House in their 240-year history.

As the light emanated from Independence Hall in Philadelphia, the building where the Founding Fathers signed the Declaration of Independence, Barack Obama stood before the people who had braved a chilly Monday night and passed the torch to his preferred successor.

“I’m asking you to vote for this woman, this mother, this grandmother, to be the next president of the United States,” Obama said.

It was the largest event of Clinton’s 18-month campaign, drawing 33,000 inside the square. Obama’s voice reverberated to the surrounding streets from speakers positioned for the thousands who could not gain entry but looked on from outside. All told, an estimated 40,000 had descended upon the area hoping to bear witness to the climax of a gruelling 18-month election cycle.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia. Photograph: Taylor Hill/WireImage

Michelle Obama, who has emerged unexpectedly as Clinton’s most powerful surrogate, implored voters to grasp that presidential elections were “breathtakingly close”.

“Tomorrow, with your vote, you can stand up to those who seek to divide us make us afraid,” the first lady said. “Tomorrow, with your vote, you can say that this country has always been great, that it is the greatest nation on earth.”

But it was unmistakably Clinton’s night. Mounting the podium, she threw up her arms and looked to the skies.

She had inched one step closer to cementing her place in history. To the jubilant supporters savouring the moment, she cautioned them that her fate remained in their hands.

“None of us, none of us,” Clinton said, “want to wake up on Wednesday morning and wish we had done more.”

Updated

Lauren Gambino and Madhvi Pankhania have relived the whole 2016 campaign (so you don’t have to) and distilled it to these … let’s say key moments, rather than highlights.

Perhaps your favourite/recurring nightmare is among them:

Obviously the big question of the day (for some people) is whether New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is voting for Trump.

Trump says he already has.

Brady says he hasn’t voted yet.

But Brady’s wife, model Gisele Bündchen, told a questioner on Instagram – three days ago, admittedly, that the couple were not backing Trump.

Who to believe?

What happens next?

Those teeny New Hampshire midnight results aside, most polling stations won’t open till 6am earliest – just under four-and-a-half hours away for those on the US east coast.

Opening and closing times for polling stations vary a lot; this is a useful, if not straightforward guide to what closes when.

Results will start to be called from 7pm eastern time (midnight GMT; Australian readers, here’s your own guide to Wednesday timings). We might know a winner by midnight EST. We might get concession speeches by 2am EST.

Or it might all take a lot longer. We’ll be live blogging throughout, should you fancy some company.

You didn’t even have to hang around for hours waiting for a rally to start to catch a celebrity endorsement performance in the closing stretch of the campaign.

Madonna pitched up in Washington Square Park, NYC, to urge support for Clinton (“Save this country, vote for Hillary Clinton!”) and express herself – sorry – about Trump (“No way, motherfucker”).

The set list:

  • Express Yourself
  • Don’t Tell Me
  • Like a Prayer
  • Imagine
  • If I Had a Hammer
  • Rebel Heart

China’s official news agency has just put out its verdict on the “mud-slinging, insult-driven and scandal-ridden” US election – and it isn’t pretty.

The election, it says, shows “the darkest side of the political system [that] Washington intends to impose on the rest of the globe”.

Neither of the “very unscrupulous and incoherent” candidates comes out well from Xinhua’s take on the race for the White House. It describes them as “two of the least desirable candidates in perhaps the whole history of the US electoral politics”.

Xinhua says Trump is unlikely to deliver change while Clinton “has to hide or twist a long list of inconvenient facts she does not want the public to know”.

“The ballots are now being cast, and whatever the results might be, only troubles seem to be guaranteed, both for the United States and for the world,” it concludes.

A very good point from a reader below the line:

User avatar for rustyschwinnToo

(Don’t vote tomorrow! Vote today. Trust me on this.)

Those on the West coast should not trust you on this!

Lets not have another national US election solely in EST, eh?

Vote at whatever point your part of the US reaches Tuesday 8 November!

Clinton wraps up with a “let’s go vote”.

It’s 1.10am ET. And – probably, because this election campaign has not been a great one for safe predictions – that’s the last rallying cry we’ll hear from either candidate this side of the results.

Trump is done. “Go to bed!” he tells his crowd.

Clinton is still going and so gets the last word. Some of them are about Lady Gaga again.

Trump:

You have one magnificent chance to beat this corrupt, rigged system.

Clinton:

It’s not just my name or Donald Trump’s name on the ballot – it’s the kind of country we want.

Back to Clinton, who is talking about democracy, women’s rights, workers’ rights.

And tomorrow we face a test, she says. (Technically, Secretary Clinton, it’s today. But who’s counting.)

You have to vote tomorrow!

(Don’t vote tomorrow! Vote today. Trust me on this.)

*Edit: yes, I had only the Clinton crowd in North Carolina in mind and not, say, the huge part of America that hadn’t passed midnight yet. Apologies. Vote tomorrow!

Updated

Trump:

And yes, we will build a great, great wall … Who is going to pay for the wall?

Mexico. They don’t know it yet, but they’re going to pay for it.

(What do you think are the chances that Mexico has not yet heard of this plan?)

Trump is back on a familiar theme: inner cities.

You walk to the store for a loaf of bread, you get shot.

And then segues straight into another favourite of his: Syrian refugees. (Boos from the crowd.)

Her plan will import generations of terrorism … into your schools and throughout your communities.

Switching to Hillary Clinton for a moment now, as she steps up to the podium for what is also her final campaign rally. In Raleigh.

It’s 12.52am. “This is sure worth staying up for,” she says.

She can’t imagine a better way to end the campaign than seeing this crowd and watching Lady Gaga, “whose range goes from A-Z and beyond”, she says.

That’s what I want for the people of America: the joy, the passion!

More Trump on Mexico. It’s car plants, this time, rather than walls.

They take our money, they take our jobs, they build their plants, they build their factories. We end up with unemployment and drugs.

“It’s so easy” to fix, he says. He will “pick up the phone myself … I love it” to tell company executives they’ll have to pay a 35% tax to sell their products back to US consumers.

Hillary Clinton is on stage in Raleigh now, alongside Bill and Chelsea, who takes the podium first.

Meanwhile Trump is telling his crowd, multiple times: “She’s not going to be able to do the job.” This speech has focused very heavily on factories, car plants and jobs. And Mexico. There are going to be consequences, he says. “It’s so simple to solve.”

Flipping back to Trump: he’s telling the crowd to go to sleep “for a couple of hours” then vote and go to work:

I know my Michigan people. I have so many friends here. They work!

Gaga is singing again and this time Jon Bon Jovi is too. They are Living on a Prayer.

It’s hard to believe we started a year and a half ago, Trump tells the crowd.

(It is indeed.)

Now we have one flawed candidate left to beat.

He promises to return to Michigan “a lot” if he wins.

(Meanwhile, in Raleigh, Lady Gaga has stopped singing but has donned a hat.)

We don’t need Jay-Z or Beyoncé or Jon Bon Jovi or Lady Gaga, Trump says. (He doesn’t mention Springsteen. Perhaps he’d have liked to have had Springsteen.)

“We’re up in Florida,” he says. “Today we’re going to win back the great state of Michigan and we are going to take back the White House.”

Donald Trump begins final campaign rally

Trump is about to take the stage in Grand Rapids.

Someone, however, seems to have got fed up with waiting (it is, to be fair, half past midnight):

Updated

And the third – and, I believe, last for a while – result from New Hampshire is in.

Hart’s Location has gone for Clinton:

  • Clinton 17
  • Trump 14
  • Johnson 3
  • Bernie Sanders (write-in) 2
  • John Kasich/Sanders (write-in) 1

Millsfield, New Hampshire, toddles into second place with its declaration:

It’s going to be a long day:

I’m trying to watch both rallies, which is complicated.

Lady Gaga has put on some shades. She is singing now.

Pence is talking about jobs and Obamacare. He is wearing a tie.

And now you can take your pick.

You can have Mike Pence in Grand Rapids, Michigan:

Trump’s final campaign rally.

OR Lady Gaga, opening for Hillary Clinton in Raleigh, North Carolina:

Clinton’s final campaign rally.

Dixville Notch results!

Hillary Clinton: 4 votes

Donald Trump: 2 votes

Gary Johnson: 1 vote

Mitt Romney (write-in!): 1 vote

Turnout: 8

Updated

Happy election day:

Still counting in Dixville Notch, I mean, come on …

Slightly awkwardly, the first Dixville Notch voter fumbled getting the ballot into the box. But he recovered quickly.

The polls have now closed and they are OPENING THE BOX.

Voting starts in Dixville Notch!

And we’re on …

We’ll bring you the results as soon as they’ve counted the votes. There could be 12 of them, if turnout is good, so be patient.

On the subject of Dixville Notch – the New Hampshire town will begin voting in <checks watch> about 12 minutes from now.

The population is only 12 too so the result should be an early one, unless residents decide to ruin election day tradition by taking an early night.

Millsfield NH is also voting from midnight, but there are 29 residents there, so it’ll take a while longer for the result to seep out.

Clinton’s plane has landed in Raleigh, North Carolina, ahead of her midnight rally.

No sign of Trump yet in Grand Rapids (was due at 11pm ET) – at this rate she’ll be on before he is.

At this rate, Dixville Notch will have finished voting before either of them wrap up their final rallies …

If you’re missing the Ted Nugent warm-up act – and Trump is, because he’s still on the plane – here’s a brief recap (he’s still going):

  • He had a bloody knife taken off him before coming on stage by secret service agents – that’s a deer-hunting thing, apparently.
  • Things he has claimed to be: Michigan; a radical; an extremist; proof that Trump has “cojones”.
  • The constitution is written in stone and blood (not deer).

Back to Grand Rapids, where Trump is not (yet) but Ted Nugent is.

Given Trump’s earlier confusion over the music that most of us now know as rap – “Singing, right? Singing. Talking? Was it talking or singing? I don’t know” – he’ll probably be relieved to be missing this current talky-singy number from Nugent. (You can watch it live via the link a couple of posts down, should you really want to.)

This tweet has caused a fair bit of head-scratching:

Trump isn’t in Grand Rapids yet, but if you’d like to see Ted Nugent repeating his warm-up act, you can catch that live here:

Donald Trump’s final campaign rally in Grand Rapids.

Updated

In the final nine days of the presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump made a combined total of 50 stops in 14 states. What do these stops tell us about the race?

Typically, last-minute campaign decisions are based on internal campaign polling not available to the public. Such polling explains why Al Gore campaigned at 2am in Florida on election day in 2000, as confusing as that move was for the opposition at the time.

The late moves of the 2016 campaign may be trickier to decode, in part because of the drunken-ninja style of the Donald Trump campaign, which reportedly ceased conducting its own polling last week or even two weeks ago.

The action in Michigan, visited twice by Clinton and four times by Trump, may be most interesting. The Great Lakes state emerged as an object of interest relatively late in the race, with both campaigns having dispensed with other, more central fights, and with the Trump campaign sensing opportunity with the state’s white blue-collar voters. The Clinton campaign hopes the state’s Democratic voting record since 1988 will be good for 16 electoral votes Tuesday night.

Shares in Asian markets – where it’s Tuesday already – have edged up as the prospect of a Clinton win looks more likely, Reuters reports:

Most Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday ahead of the election, with investors optimistic but cautious over improving prospects for a win by Hillary Clinton.

The Mexican peso, which strengthens as the perceived chances of an election victory by Donald Trump fall, retained its strong gains from Monday.

The dollar, which also advanced on Monday, edged slightly lower.

Boosting Clinton’s chances of winning, and markets globally, was a statement by the FBI on Sunday standing by its July finding that Clinton was not guilty of criminal wrongdoing in her use of a private email server.

That came after the FBI announced on 28 October it was reviewing additional emails relating to the server while Clinton was secretary of state, sending markets around the world tumbling.

Clinton is seen by investors as offering greater certainty and stability, and, until last week’s stumble, had been seen as the likely victor in Tuesday’s presidential vote.

But investors remained wary, noting Britain’s shock vote in June to leave the European Union had defied most polls and bookmakers’ odds.

“As markets head into the U.S. election, a final recalibration of risk is in train,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note.

“Asia-Pacific markets were the first to adjust to the political shift, and may trade more modestly today after roaring back to life yesterday.”

We’ll be keeping an eye on markets in Asia and beyond as the votes are totted up on Tuesday (or Wednesday as it’s known in some parts of the globe).

The Miami Herald op-ed page is keeping it simple tomorrow:

Trump’s plane – and the press – have now left Manchester, New Hampshire, heading to Grand Rapids, Michigan, for what will be his final rally (barring a November surprise). He’s due there at 11pm ET.

Clinton, meanwhile, is en route to Raleigh, North Carolina, for a “Get Out the Vote” rally at midnight. Lady Gaga’s there to keep the crowds from tiring. In the meantime you can chat to her (well, hear a recorded “I’m with her” message):

How many presidents do you see in this picture?

President, could-be president, former president on stage at Independence Mall, Philadelphia.
President, could-be president, former president on stage at Independence Mall, Philadelphia. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog from Scott Bixby, who is recharging for the Big Day.

Don’t think it’s all over for Big Day Minus One, though: both Trump and Clinton have a further rally to get through. We’ll have it all live here.

Donald Trump may not have had any celebrities appearing his behalf on Monday night – but he told a crowd of more than 10,000 that he was backed by New England Patriots star quarterback Tom Brady and their head coach Bill Belichick.

Trump has long bragged that Brady, a two-time NFL MVP and four time Super Bowl champion, “is a great friend of mine”. Brady was suspended for four games at the start of the 2016 season for his role in the Deflategate scandal.

Speaking in Manchester, New Hampshire, the Republican nominee told the cheering crowd that Brady called him earlier on Monday to say: “Donald, I support you. You’re my friend and I voted for you.”

The quarterback was photographed in 2015 with a Make America Great Again hat in his locker. Brady also said in an interview in December 2015: “Donald is a good friend of mine. I have known him for a long time. I support all my friends.”

In a local interview earlier on Monday, though, Brady said he hadn’t voted yet – “I am going to vote today or tomorrow” – and played coy on who he might vote for: “Next week I’ll tell you.”

The Republican candidate also boasted of his support from Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. The famously taciturn and obsessive coach has won four Super Bowls with Brady as his quarterback and is considered one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. Belichick’s girlfriend posted a picture on Instagram of Trump and the NFL coach in the spring, describing the Republican nominee as “our good friend”.

Trump announced after the Brady endorsement that Belichick “wrote me the most beautiful letter”:

Congratulations on a tremendous campaign. You have dealt with an unbelievable slanted and negative media and come out beautifully. You have proved to be the ultimate competitor and fighter. Your leadership is amazing.

The toughness and perseverance you have displayed in the past year is remarkable. Hopefully the results in tomorrow’s election will give you the opportunity to make America great again.

Updated

Is it too late to impeach him?

Just kidding - we have friends in this video so we’ll let it slide. But just this once!

Campaigning in Manchester, New Hampshire, at a decidedly less glamorous rally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump blamed President Barack Obama’s fondness for golf as the source behind congressional obstruction, before launching into a laundry list of political goals.

“We are going to protect religious liberty, rebuild our military, and we are finally going to take care of our veterans properly,” Trump said. “We’re going to provide school choice and bring an end to Common Core - we’re gonna bring our education local.”

“And save our Second Amendment, which is under siege.”

Seriously, this crowd is huge.

Hillary Clinton, closing out her largest campaign rally since the Democratic National Convention, urged her supporters to turn out tomorrow, especially in states where limitations on voting have been enacted by local governments.

“We can take the first step tomorrow,” Clinton said. “We need your help. In these last hours, we need your help knocking on doors and making phone calls.”

“None of us want to wake up on Wednesday morning and wish we had done more,” Clinton continued. “Years from today, when your kids and grandkids asked what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, I want you to be able to say that you did vote - you voted for an inclusive, bighearted, open-minded country future that will make sure that we all keep moving together.”

“You voted for an America where we build bridges, not walls! And maybe most importantly you voted in great numbers to demonstrate conclusively, once and for all, that yes, love trumps hate!”

“Let’s make history together!”

Hillary Clinton: 'Let’s show tomorrow that there will be no question about the outcome of this election'

“Tomorrow we face the test of our time,” Clinton said. “What will we vote for, not just against. What will we decide is on the ballot, because although my name and my opponent’s name will be on the ballot, every issue you are about is on that ballot.”

“If you believe college should be more affordable, you have to vote! If you believe we must reform our criminal justice system so that everyone has respect for the law, and everyone is respected by the law, then you have to vote!” Clinton continued. “If you believe we must raise the minimum wage and finally guarantee equal pay for women, then you have to vote!”

“It is not just my name or Donald Trump’s name on the ballot tomorrow - every issue you care about is at stake. And that is just the beginning, because we have to bridge the divides in our country. I regret deeply how angry the tone of the campaign became.”

“Not your fault!” a single female voice shouted out, followed by cheers.

“There were so many really troubling things that my opponent said,” Clinton said, but there was one instance that really stood out to her. “Refusing to say whether or not he would accept the outcome of the election. Well let’s show tomorrow that there will be no question about the outcome of this election!”

Framing tomorrow’s election as “a choice between division or unity, between an economy that works for everyone or only those at the top, between strong steady leadership, or a loose cannon who could put everything at risk,” Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton told the audience of nearly 30,000 supporters in Philadelphia that “our core values are being tested in this election,” Clinton said.

“I believe with all my heart that America’s best days are still ahead of us if we reach for them together,” Clinton continued.

Hillary Clinton mounted the stage in Philadelphia after President Barack Obama pulled out a small box for her to stand on.

Obama could be overheard on the microphone saying, “When you’re president, it’s gonna be there permanently for ya.”

The audience went wild for that line, intended to be overheard or not.

“We have our amazing president and first lady with us because for now nearly eight years, they have served our nation with grace, strength, brilliance and a whole lot of cool!” Clinton said. “They have showed us again and again, as Michelle said right here in Philadelphia back at our convention, when others go low, we go high!”

“The best way to thank them is to do something really important tomorrow: to vote.”

Hillary Clinton campaigns in Philadelphia

Watch it live here:

Speaking in front of an enormous crowd at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, President Barack Obama called Hillary Clinton a woman who will “roll up her sleeves and move America forward.”

“I know elections and all the negative ads tend to heighten that cynicism,” Obama said, of election fatigue. But, he continued, “in 2008 you gave me a chance - a skinny guy with a funny name.”

“You bet on me all those years ago, and I will always be grateful for the privilege you gave me to serve,” Obama said, “but I’ll be honest with you - I’ve had the better odds, because I’ve always bet on you.”

“I’m betting that America will reject a politics of resentment, and a politics of blame, and will choose a politics that says that we are stronger together,” Obama said. “That is a bet that I have never, ever lost.”

“Philadelphia, in this place, where our founders forged the documents of freedom, in this place where they gave us the tools to perfect our union,” Obama said, “I ask you to vote.”

“I am asking you to work as hard as you can this one last day to elect, my fellow Americans, this fighter, this stateswoman, this proud mother, this candidate, to election Hillary Clinton!”

Donald Trump campaigns in Manchester, New Hampshire

We’ll keep liveblogging President Barack Obama, but watch it live here:

President Barack Obama, speaking in front of a crowd of nearly 30,000 people at Independence Mall in Philadelphia, said that stopping Donald Trump isn’t the only reason to vote tomorrow - and that Hillary Clinton’s candidacy is reason enough to show up.

“The vicious, crazy attacks, the double standards applied to her, they’re like nothing we’ve ever seen before,” Obama said, “and what makes it worse is most of the people saying this stuff, they don’t really believe it!”

“When you’re subjected to unrelenting negative fire, it takes a toll. But here’s the thing about Hillary: She doesn’t complain. She doesn’t buckle. She brushes it off. Like the American people, she is strong and tough, and she knows that government service is not about her - it’s about you! Your struggles. Your dreams.”

“She won’t just tweet,” Obama continued. “But she will need your help, and she’ll need help in Washington.”

President Barack Obama, speaking in front of a crowd of nearly 30,000 people at Independence Mall in Philadelphia, called Hillary Clinton more qualified to serve as his successor than any previous president - himself included.

“With Democrats in charge, America is stronger. Those are just the facts,” Obama said, citing his accomplishments on the economic, social and international stages. “And with just one more day to go, we now have the chance to elect a 45th president who will build on our progress, who will finish the job, who already has the respect of leaders around the world.”

“Tomorrow, Philadelphia, the choice you face when you step into that voting booth could not be clearer and could not be more serious,” Obama continued, lambasting Donald Trump as lacking “a basic understanding of the world.”

“If his closest advisors don’t trust him to tweet, why would any of us trust him with the nuclear codes?”

“Donald Trump has shown utter contempt for the values that make this nation great,” Obama continued. “All of this should give you reason enough to vote tomorrow.”

Introduced by first lady Michelle Obama as “the love of my life,” President Barack Obama bounded onto the stage at Independence Mall in Philadelphia to a roaring crowd of nearly 30,000.

“Thank you, Michelle, for being my partner, my love, my rock, and an amazing first lady!”

“Eight years ago, Ia asked all of you to join me on an unlikely journey. We set our, not just to change programs or policies, but to rebuild an economy where everybody had a chance to succeed,” Obama began. “We didn’t know when we began that America would fall into the worst economic crisis of our lifetimes, but in the face of great challenges, in the case of unprecedented obstruction in a cynical Washington, we stayed with it.”

“Because of your resilience, because of your strength, because of your faith, we turned ‘yes we can’ into ‘yes we did,’” Obama said, echoing his famous campaign slogan.

President Obama campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia

Watch it live here:

Speaking at Independence Mall in Philadelphia, first lady Michelle Obama launches a patented tearjerker of a speech, addressing her husband’s unlikely path to the White House and exhorting the assembled thousands to vote for Hillary Clinton as his successor.

“Our actions are a reflection of what behavior we hope our children will emulate,” Michelle Obama said. “That’s why Barack and I have been working so hard in this election.”

Obama lauded Hillary Clinton as “a leader who takes this job seriously, someone who is truly ready to be commander in chief on day one.”

“We deserve a leader who will ensure that our daughters are safe and respected, and that our sons understand that truly strong men are compassionate and kind. We deserve a leader who sees the dignity and humanity in all of us, and who will encourage us to see the better angels in one another.”

“I am here tonight because I believe with all my heart and soul that Hillary Clinton is that leader!” Obama continued, to a roaring crowd. “And we need to do everything we can to get her elected president of the United States!”

“If we get out and vote tomorrow, Hillary Clinton will win - but if we stay home, or if we play around with a protest vote, then Hillary’s opponent will win. period, end of story,” Obama said.

“Presidential elections are breathtakingly close,” Obama continued. “Each of you has the power to swing an entire precinct for Hillary, and if we swing enough precincts, we will win this state, we will win this election, and we will continue this progress... that is the power that you have.”

“You can stand up to those who seek to divide us and make us afraid. You can declare with one voice that we are always stronger together. Tomorrow, with your vote, you can say that this country has always been great - that it is the greatest country on earth,” Obama continued. “A country where the biracial son of a single mother from Hawaii and the son of a single mother from Hope, Arkansas, can both make it to the White House!”

“A country where a passion,the outspoken young women determined to do all the good she can, can go on to break the highest, hardest glass ceiling and become our president! That is the power you have. And the history you can make tomorrow.”

“But only if we get out and vote for Hillary Clinton.”

Calling Hillary Clinton “an inspiration to me,” first lady Michelle Obama exhorted the tens of thousands assembled in Philadelphia to vote for Hillary Clinton as her husband’s successor.

“This is truly an emotional day for me, for so many reasons,” Obama said. “Tomorrow we have the chance to elect someone who is singularly qualified to be our president - our friend, Hillary Clinton!”

“She is a phenomenal woman who has devoted her life to helping others - kids in crumbling schools, families struggling to get by, women who need a voice,” Obama continued. “Hillary is the woman we want on our side because she never gives up, she never quits, she refuses to ever be knocked down, pushed around or counted out.”

“And in just a few hours, we have the chance to make her our next president.”

“Speaking here tonight is perhaps the last and most important thing that I can do for my country as first lady.”

First lady Michelle Obama speaks in Philadelphia

Watch it live here:

Former president Bill Clinton, speaking to a massive rally on Independence Mall in Philadelphia,

“This country began here. Right here! With people who pledged their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor to form a more perfect union. In other words, we’re stronger together,” Clinton said, referring to wife Hillary Clinton’s campaign slogan.

“Tomorrow the American people are gonna be given a chance, one more time, to form a more perfect union,” Clinton continued. “I think you know what the answer’s gonna be, and I think that all of us owe a great debt of gratitude to the president, the first lady, the administration of Barack Obama!”

Former first daughter Chelsea Clinton, speaking to a massive pro-Hillary Clinton rally on Independence Mall in Philadelphia, called the assembled crowd “extraordinary.”

“I am so fiercely, ridiculously proud of my mom, and I am unapologetically biased towards her,” Clinton said, “and I hope that many of you now understand why, after this campaign, this is true for me.”

“I cannot wait to cast my vote for her tomorrow, and I like to think I’m the most excited person here - but my dad might be even a little bit more excited than I am.”

Chelsea Clinton then introduces her father, former president Bill Clinton.

Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton campaign at massive rally in Philadelphia

Watch it live here:

A poll commissioned by the conservative Breitbart News website shows Hillary Clinton leading in every swing state:

Donald Trump ally swears vigilante poll watchers will not target voters by race

After local Democratic parties in six battleground states filed lawsuits against Trump adviser Roger Stone’s voter fraud monitoring project, the Republican operative released new rules for volunteer monitors and pledged to a Nevada judge that he “will not target voters based on their race”.

Voters wait in a line nearly four-hours long to cast their US Presidential ballots during weekend early voting at a polling place in North Hollywood, California.
Voters wait in a line nearly four-hours long to cast their US Presidential ballots during weekend early voting at a polling place in North Hollywood, California. Photograph: Eugene Garcia/EPA

Roger Stone, an informal Trump adviser, also told the Guardian on Monday that he was concerned that the Republican party in Ohio would try to manipulate votes to undermine Trump, and said that the Stop the Steal fraud prevention project was a “neutral process”.

Stone had announced the Stop the Steal voter fraud prevention project to the Guardian in late October. He said the effort was recruiting volunteers to conduct exit polls in nine Democrat-leaning cities in swing states in order to check for “election theft” via hacked or compromised voting machines. The cities he listed then – Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Fort Lauderdale, Charlotte, Richmond and Fayetteville – had large minority voting populations.

In response, local Democratic parties in six battleground states filed lawsuits against Stone, Stop the Steal, and Republican parties, alleging broad efforts to intimidate minority voters.

The new guidelines for the Stop the Steal volunteers nationwide come as another federal judge expressed skepticism that Democrats had any proof that the Trump campaign, local Republican parties, Stone and Stop the Steal were “conspiring to threaten, intimidate, and thereby prevent minority voters in urban neighborhoods from voting”, as Democrats had alleged in multiple lawsuits.

In Philadelphia, US district judge Paul Diamond denied Democrats’ request for a temporary restraining order on voter fraud prevention activities on Monday, ruling that Democrats had failed to make “any credible showing” that voters’ rights were in jeopardy. The judge slammed the local Democratic party for “belated, inflammatory allegations that appear intended to generate only heat, not light”.

The supreme court on Monday also denied a request to restore a sweeping temporary restraining order issued by a federal judge in Ohio last week, which had briefly enjoined the Trump campaign, Stone, and Stop the Steal, as well as the Clinton campaign, from engaging in a variety of voter intimidation behaviors. A panel of sixth circuit judges had quickly stayed the order, which a leading election law expert had dubbed “likely unconstitutionally vague”.

Donald Trump campaign creates 'voter assistance hotline'

From an email sent to supporters this evening:

Thank you again for supporting Donald Trump for President. Just a reminder that if you encounter any problems casting a ballot or if you witness any disruptions at a polling location please call our Voter Assistance Hotline at (844) 332-2016. You can also report any of these incidents on-line at:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/landing/election-issue

Team Trump-Pence

The crowd in Philadelphia is unlike anything we’ve ever seen at a Clinton event during this campaign.

Hillary Clinton rally with President Obama in Philadelphia.
Hillary Clinton rally with President Obama in Philadelphia. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

Madonna sang Imagine in Manhattan’s Washington Square Park in a pop-up concert on Hillary Clinton’s behalf:

Curt Schilling, who plans to run for the US Senate in 2018:

The rumors of a pop-up Madonna concert in Manhattan’s Washington Square Park were true, according to an email we just got from the Guardian’s David Taylor:

Yep Madonna is covering Imagine in Washington Square - stumping for Hillary in a Wooly Stars and Stripes hat with an acoustic guitar.

Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, President Obama, Michelle Obama and Chelsea Clinton campaign in Philadelphia

Watch it live, in front of a crowd of 20,000 people, here:

While we wait for the massive Clinton rally in Philadelphia, here’s the Saturday Night Live cold-open if you missed it earlier:

Get thee to Washington Square Park!

Updated

Donald Trump: 'It will be the greatest vote you ever cast in your lifetime'

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, closing out his speech in Scranton, Pennsylvania, told an audience of supporters that “we have one flawed candidate to beat.”

“You have one day to make every dream you’ve ever dreamed for your country and your family to come true,” Trump said. “It will never happen again - it will never happen again, folks. In four years? Not gonna happen. Not gonna happen. It’s never gonna happen again. Do not let this opportunity slip away.”

“We are fighting to bring us all together as Americans - we’re a divided nation,” Trump continued. “I’m asking you to dream big. We are just one day away from the change you’ve been waiting for for your entire life! Ya gotta go out and vote, get everybody to vote.”

“It will be the greatest vote you ever cast in your lifetime, because together we will make America wealthy again, we will make America strong again, we will make America safe again, and yes, we will make America great again!”

Fact-check: True.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, speaking in Scranton, Pennsylvania, told the crowd that they will be “so proud of your country again.”

“From now on, it’s going to be America first - America first,” Trump said, echoing one of his campaign slogans.

“The whole world is laughing at us - they’re laughing at what’s going on in our country.”

Tonight’s address in Philadelphia is gonna be lit.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, speaking in Scranton, Pennsylvania, called Democratic opponent “the most corrupt person ever to seek the office of the presidency of the United States.”

“She’s threatened national security, she’s sold her office to the highest bidder,” Trump said. “She should not be allowed to run for president - she’s being protected by a rigged system.”

Trump then accused the “dishonest media” of “rigging the system” in Clinton’s favor.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, speaking in Scranton, Pennsylvania, after being introduced by former New York City mayor and onetime presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, told the crowd of supporters that tomorrow’s election is about whether the US will elect more of the same “or whether we are ruled by yourselves.”

“In one day - one day! - we are going to win the great state of Pennsylvania, and we are going to take back the White House!”

Donald Trump campaigns in Scranton, Pennsylvania

Watch it live here:

An interesting piece about Hillary Clinton’s history of supporting Stem (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) curricula:

Mathematics and sciences (or what we call ‘Stem’ today) were of particular importance to Clinton. In a 1983 interview with the Associated Press, she remarked, while suggesting that Arkansas had overemphasized athletics, ‘I think it’s time for getting a little fanatic about math and sciences.’ Stem is the foundation of today’s technology industry, and only a handful of pioneers in the public education space had the foresight to appreciate its value for future members of the workforce. By far the most significant impact Hillary Clinton’s educational reforms had in my life was through her work to create a free public boarding school for math-and-science nerds like me: The Arkansas School for Mathematics and Sciences (ASMS).

Donald Trump’s future plans?

Donald Trump, in December 2012, told Fox News that if the Republicans in Congress did not pass comprehensive immigration reform, the party would “never win another election.”

Updated

The New Yorker’s cartoons have been fire today:

A classic burn from President Obama in New Hampshire:

Get live US election results in an innovative app alert format

Tomorrow night, the Guardian is offering an innovative way to get live presidential election results right on your phone’s lock screen. In a mobile first, we’ll send a live updating notification showing the latest US election results every time you pick up your phone. The notification will show the most up-to-date numbers of electoral votes won and states called, as well as an indication of which swing states have been called, and the breakdown of the popular vote between the two top candidates.

Live US presidential election results sign up
Live US presidential election results sign up Photograph: Guardian mobile innovation lab

Available on both iOS (you must be running iOS 10) and Android, you can get the alerts by downloading (or updating) the Guardian app, and going to the Settings > Alerts section of the app to turn on “Live US presidential election results.”

Find out more here.

President Barack Obama, speaking in Durham, New Hampshire to a raucous crowd of Hillary Clinton supporters, lauded the people organizing Hillary Clinton’s “get-out-the-vote” efforts, before telling the audience that they have one more day before they change the country.

“This is, I think, gonna be my last big event,” Obama said, to “awws.” “I mean, we’ve got one in Philly, but Michelle’s talking there, so I’m not gonna get any attention,” Obama continued, to laughter.

“We’ve got one more day, and we can choose the politics of blame and divisiveness and resentment, or you can choose the politics that says we’re stronger together,” Obama said.

“We were living through two long wars, the worst economic crisis in eighty years, but because of the American people— we turned the page. Our businesses have turned job losses into 15.5m new jobs. Incomes and wages are up, and poverty is down,” Obama said.

President Barack Obama campaigns in New Hampshire:

Watch it live here:

Updated

Thanks for the support.

Op-ed: The Donald Trump nightmare will endure for Latinos regardless

The nightmare truly began when Donald Trump threw Jorge Ramos out of a press conference in August last year. Some might argue it was when he called Mexican immigrants “rapists” the month before, but the beast hadn’t yet emerged, hadn’t yet been given a clear face or features, writes Juan-Pablo Brammer.

A vendor flies the confederate flag prior to Donald Trump rally.
A vendor flies the confederate flag prior to Donald Trump rally. Photograph: Aaron Josefczyk/Reuters

“Go back to Univision!” Trump shouted as Ramos was escorted out of the room. The familiar syntax was not lost on us Latinos, who have been told to “go back” for as long as we’ve been in the United States, whether we were born here or not.

Before he was forcibly removed, Ramos was criticizing Trump for effectively saying he would deport 11 million undocumented people and build a 1,900-mile border wall. Well, Trump skirted those specifics, but that was the reality of what he was proposing. We Latinos were put in a familiar place – where we are merely numbers or parasites to the economy, seen not for our worth as human beings but for our worth as laborers.

Al mal tiempo, buena cara, goes an old Mexican proverb. “To the bad times, good face.” When I first delved into the world of activism, I used to hold the saying in contempt. It seemed to feed into the bottomless humility of the Mexican American in the face of oppression, the immigrant family, the Chicano who doesn’t want to make a fuss. It painted us, I thought, as a people who merely stood by while bad things happened to us.

Watching the Trump campaign, being its first scapegoats, I felt we were in that helpless place where our only option was to endure. The slogan Make America Great Again encapsulated exactly how we are seen in this country. We are the unclean other, our culture dilutes the purity of America’s white citizens who must be protected from us. Make America great again – by kicking us out.

Violence against Latinos surged, at Trump rallies and across the country. Xenophobia and racism were whipped into a fever pitch by the demagogue’s rants, his constant attacks on our families and our neighbors. “Send them back” was a phrase I heard more in those months than I ever had in my life. “You have to go back” became a common response to everything I wrote. Something had changed.

It was Trump’s attack on US district court judge Gonzalo P Curiel, born in Indiana and of Mexican descent, that saw our worst fears begin to take shape in reality. Trump, then the presumptive Republican nominee, accused Curiel, who was overseeing a class action lawsuit against Trump University, of being biased simply because of his Mexican heritage.

Hillary Clinton: 'We need more love and kindness in America'

Hillary Clinton, speaking to an enthusiastic audience of supporters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, urged her supporters (and detractors) to “start thinking about how we want to be treated, and what that means about how we treat others.”

“After tomorrow, the work will begin, and one of the highest priorities that I feel an obligation to address is how we bring our country together,” Clinton said. “We have so much divisiveness right now - we’ve got to start listening to each other, respecting each other.”

“We need more love and kindness in America.”

Matt Drudge don’t wanna lose his pride, but he’s gonna....

Hillary Clinton: 'My faith in our future has never been stronger'

Hillary Clinton, speaking to an enthusiastic audience of supporters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, compared the “contrasting visions” for the future of the United States of her campaign and that of Republican rival Donald Trump.

“The theme that ran through much of his rhetoric was the presentation of a dark and divisive vision for America,” Clinton said. “We’ve got challenges, but America’s always had challenges - and since when do we become pessimistic and not able to think about what we can do to solve those challenges together?”

“I often didn’t recognize the country that Donald Trump was describing, because from my perspective, looking back at our history, we have a tremendous opportunity ahead of us - and you can vote for a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America that will set the stage for an even better future!”

“I want to say especially to the students who are here: I really believe that America’s best days are still ahead of us if we reach for them together,” Clinton said, to loud cheers. “My faith in our future has never been stronger.”

Hillary Clinton, speaking to an enthusiastic audience of supporters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, told the audience of college students and faculty that even though some of them might disagree with her policies, they will never doubt that she will be fit to serve as president and commander in chief.

“It is great to be back in Western Michigan!” Clinton shouted as the audience roared. “I am so thrilled to be here!”

“This election is basically between division and unity in our country. It’s between strong and steady leadership, or a loose cannon who could put everything at risk. It is between an economy that works for everyone or one that is even more stacked for those at the top.”

“Although my name and my opponent’s name will be on the ballot, those issues and those values will be on the ballot as well,” Clinton continued. “You have to recognize: this is a consequential election.”

Hillary Clinton campaigns in Grand Rapids, Michigan

Watch it live here:

Former secretary of state Madeleine Albright is knocking on doors:

Hillary Clinton to hold midnight rally with Lady Gaga, Jon Bon Jovi, DJ Samantha Ronson

Hillary Clinton will hold a final midnight “Get Out the Vote” rally in Raleigh, North Carolina at midnight tonight, according to a campaign statement released this evening.

Former president Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton will attend the rally, as well as singer Lady Gaga, rock legend Jon Bon Jovi and DJ Samantha Ronson.

Clinton campaign buoyed by high Latino turnout in election's final hours

Hillary Clinton walks back to a stage after a rally outside the University of Pittsburgh’s Cathedral of Learning.
Hillary Clinton walks back to a stage after a rally outside the University of Pittsburgh’s Cathedral of Learning. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

The US presidential campaign ended on Monday where the fiercest nomination battles began – in the rustbelt – as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump spent the last hours of a bitter election focused on the country’s deep economic divide.

Democrats gained a late confidence boost as a final series of national opinion polls confirmed a small but steady lead for Clinton. Early voting numbers point already to record turnout among Latino voters stirred into action by Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric.

But the continued risk of an upset that would send shockwaves around the world was underlined by state-level polling suggesting several possible paths to victory also remain for Trump. He hopes to galvanise white working-class anger over jobs and trade in the traditionally Democratic manufacturing regions, though also needs an almost clean sweep of battleground states including Florida and North Carolina to win outright.

Sensing possible danger, the Clinton campaign poured last-minute resources into the industrial midwest, a region where she struggled against a similar anti-establishment surge for Bernie Sanders during the primary election season. Both Clinton and Barack Obama held afternoon rallies in Michigan before planning to finish the night on stage together in Philadelphia with Bruce Springsteen.

Trump was also headed to Michigan where he planned to end the night, before returning to New York, where he will vote. The Republican candidate took aim at Clinton’s use of celebrities to amplify her final pitch to voters, with a loaded jibe at Jay Z and Beyonce: “Were they talking or singing?”

Donald Trump, on losing:

I will consider this the single greatest waste of time, energy and money.

Become a Guardian member

Since you’re here…we have a small favor to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever but far fewer are paying for it. And advertising revenues are falling fast. That’s why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters — because it might well be your perspective, too. Support the Guardian with a monthly payment or one-time contribution.

And thank you for reading!

Whoa!

Stone Cold is, in case you’ve been living under a rock, Stone Cold Steve Austin, the pro wrestling star, né Steve Anderson but in Austin, Texas.

Trump is saying that the election will be “Brexit plus,” “Brexit plus plus” etcetera.

But is two Brexits equal to remain?

Trump: I get bigger crowds than Beyoncé

Trump is bragging, in an un-full room in Raleigh, North Carolina, about drawing bigger crowds than Beyoncé.

Trump is speaking now in Raleigh, North Carolina. It’s unsettling – he’s so on time today:

Sabato's crystal ball: Clinton 322, Trump 216, senate tied

Here’s how the folks at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the center for politics at the University of Virginia see this pop tart cooking:

Here’s their map:

Obama on Trump: 'if your closest advisers don't trust you to tweet...'

Obama warns voters not to be ‘bamboozled’ ahead of US election

The Guardian’s Jon Swaine is in Akron, Ohio, in Summit county, which Obama won by 15 points in 2012, when he won the state by two points.

There is a heck of a line:

This is a pretty cool visualization of early voting in Florida (h/t @jmartnyt). And if you’re Hillary Clinton, here’s something even cooler: Hispanic early voting is up 87% from 2012:

“Right now, I think about 67% percent of the likely electorate has voted,” Florida soothsayer Steve Schale wrote Monday morning. That’s why Florida is expected to report earlier than usual this time (meaning not only on election day itself but actually early on Tuesday evening).

Long lines bedevil determined voters

It took Cristela Alonzo, a Latina comedian in Los Angeles, almost seven hours to vote this weekend. In Cincinnati, Ohio, a pivotal swing state, wait times were three hours on average. And in Raleigh, North Carolina, voters waited close to four hours over a half-mile long line at a state university.

Abysmally long early voting lines are not new in the US. They are, in fact, widespread and even predicted by some local officials.

Since 2000, the popularity of early voting has increased from 12% of the electorate to an anticipated 40% this year, according to a CBS report of the AP Election Research Group. During that same time though, Republican-led legislatures have pushed back against early voting in Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska.

Why?

In-person early voting tends to benefit Democrats. In North Carolina, for example, 60% of black voters – a reliably Democratic group – cast early ballots, as opposed to 44% of white voters, according to the Institute for Southern Studies.

Following the US Supreme Court’s dismantling of the Voting Rights Act, which required some southern states to get pre-approval of election law changes from the federal government, North Carolinian state representatives passed a law that eliminated early voting on one Sunday. In part, that move was designed to impact “souls to the polls” day, a powerful program that brings black churchgoers to vote after Sunday service.

A judge struck down that state law in July, finding that it targeted African Americans “with almost surgical precision”. Nevertheless, three North Carolina counties still managed to limit early voting the Sunday before election day.

Research from the Brennan Center for Justice on three states with the longest lines in 2012, Florida, Maryland and South Carolina, found that voters in urban areas tended to have fewer machines, less poll workers or both. More research cited by the center backs up findings that voters in Latino and African American districts tend to wait the longest (both constituencies lean Democratic).

A line of early voters waits outside the Franklin County Board of Elections, Monday, Nov. 7, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio.
A line of early voters waits outside the Franklin County Board of Elections, Monday, Nov. 7, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. Photograph: John Minchillo/AP

Just this spring, lines were so long in Arizona that voters of both parties were livid. Why? Republican state officials cut budgets for county officials, who in turn demanded cheap elections, which cut polling places. Democratic leaders tended to blame Republicans, who cut budgets. Arizona was another state that used to be required to seek pre-approval of election law changes under the Voting Rights Act.

If politicians wanted to end long lines, experts say some simple recommendations could make a big impact. A January 2014 report called The American Voting Experience looked at ways that officials could predict and plan for voter turnout, after Floridians waited seven hours to vote for Barack Obama in 2012.

They found that expanding early voting, online registration, new technologies and efficient polling place management could all help reduce and eliminate long wait times.

So if you’re waiting in a long line, congratulate your fellow voters, and consider a letter to you local election commission.

Obama picks up on report that aides confiscated Trump's Twitter

Don’t miss this from the New York Times: Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand: An Anxious Nominee Seeks Assurance.

Among the juicy details:

Aides to Mr. Trump have finally wrested away the Twitter account that he used to colorfully — and often counterproductively — savage his rivals. But offline, Mr. Trump still privately muses about all the ways he will punish his enemies after Election Day, including a threat to fund a “super PAC” with vengeance as its core mission.

His polished older daughter, Ivanka, sat for a commercial intended to appeal to suburban women who have recoiled from her father’s incendiary language. But she discouraged the campaign from promoting the ad in news releases, fearing that her high-profile association with the campaign would damage the businesses that bear her name

This New York Times / Siena College poll of North Carolina, which matched 2,400 respondents from three surveys to the state’s voter data, had Clinton up seven points a week ago. Now she’s up by one:

Cohn notes a fascinating dynamic of the race. Registered Democrats will outnumber registered Republicans. But Trump is expected to win a lot of support from white registered Democrats:

There isn’t a realistic scenario in which registered Republicans would outnumber registered Democrats in the final count. That’s especially true in early voting, which is traditionally used more by Democrats than by Republicans. [...]

So how is the race close? Well, our polling indicates that Mr. Trump will win considerable support from white registered Democrats, especially those who have not yet voted.

Read further.

Right.

How does Donald Trump lie? A fact checker's final guide

Donald Trump lies like he tweets: erratically, at all hours, sometimes in malice and sometimes in self-contradiction, and sometimes without any apparent purpose at all. The Guardian has catalogued more than 100 falsehoods made by the Republican nominee over the last 150 days, and sorted them according to theme.

Hillary Clinton has been caught in more than a dozen falsehoods of her own, for instance about her email practices and her past support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But Clinton often makes her falsehoods in dense legalese, making them hard to pin a motive on: many could as easily be errors as lies, careless exaggeration or deliberately misleading claims.

Trump, on the other hand, will say “wrong” when he hears his own quotes. His own lawyers met him in pairs to counteract his lying, court documents show. He has invented false statistics, fictional videos and sex tapes and a nonexistent man named “John Miller” to talk about his sex life. Months of fact-checking, however, reveal methods and, whether he means to or not, Trump’s guide to success through lying.

Read further for a taxonomy of Trump’s lying, with categories including: Degrade and destroy; Embiggen big league; Shout at the messenger; Conspiracy smoke, fire not required; Deny everything; and Distortions.

Where. Is. Tiffany.

“Wave of women voters elevates Trump to presidency” – the headlines in Donald Trump’s head, apparently.

A Michigan man in the know...

However...

Livingston county – Michigan’s richest, in suburban Detroit – went 23 points for Romney in 2012, when Obama won the state by 10 points. Macomb, a less tony Detroit suburb and home to the original “Reagan Democrats” – blue-collar workers who voted Republican – is thought to be fertile ground for Trump, Obama’s four-point win there in 2012 notwithstanding.

(h/t @daveweigel)

North Carolina: voter suppression and African American turnout

Why is Hillary Clinton planning to hold a midnight rally in North Carolina after her bash with Bruce Springsteen and the Obamas in Philadelphia?

Democratic operative John Hagner notes that African American turnout in North Carolina has yet to materialize, with nearly 200,000 black voters who voted early in 2012 not having yet voted.

But nearly half of the voters in question voted in the midterms (2014) and 2016 primaries - which means they’ll vote tomorrow, in the general election. Right?

Terribly, North Carolina has been a capital this year for voter suppression, especially of Democratic and black voters. After the supreme court earlier this year struck down a voter restriction law passed by the North Carolina legislature, numerous Republican-controlled elections boards on the county level passed regulations cutting the number of polling stations and winnowing voting hours. Some of those measures, but not all, were overturned. That’s part of the reason for the long, long lines you’ve been seeing.

Seasoned Republican operative Stuart Stevens:

Obama ends. Ann Arbor winds up some Bruce Springsteen. Will they place this one tonight (and by “they” we mean “the Boss himself”)? Land of Hope and Dreams:

Updated

That’s quite a “Yes we can” chant at the Obama rally in Ann Arbor. Crowd sounds very happy to see the president one last time in office.

Here’s how the campaigns reacted to the announcement Sunday by the FBI that a new batch of emails linked to Hillary Clinton’s private email server “have not changed our conclusion” that she committed no criminal wrongdoing:

Donald Trump on Hillary Clinton and the FBI: ‘She’s protected’
Clinton campaign ‘glad that FBI email investigation has been resolved’

Obama in Michigan: 'don't fall for the okey-doke'

“I think I’ve earned some credibility here,” Obama says in Michigan. He says that manufacturing jobs have come back.

“The auto industry has record sales. I think I’ve earned some credibility here,” he says:

When I tell you that Donald Trump is not the guy who’s going to look out for you, you’ve got to listen. Don’t be bamboozled. Don’t fall for the okey-doke.

The scene in Pittsburgh:

Here now is Barack Obama in Ann Arbor, Michigan:

Clinton is taking the stage in Pittsburgh. Scroll back a couple blocks for a live stream.

Trump just might have a Latino voter problem in Florida.

Hillary Clinton is scheduled to hold her first event of the day, in Pittsburgh, shortly. Here’s a live stream:

UN climate talks open under shadow of US elections

UN talks to implement the landmark Paris climate pact opened in Marrakech on Monday, buoyed by gathering momentum but threatened by the spectre of climate change denier Donald Trump in the White House, AFP reports:

Diplomats from 196 nations are meeting in Morocco to flesh out the planet-saving plan inked in the French capital last December.

“We have made possible what everyone said was impossible,” said French environment minister, Ségolène Royal, at the opening ceremony, in which she handed over stewardship of the climate forum to Moroccan foreign minister, Salaheddine Mezouar.

Read further:

The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is with Hillary Clinton today, while Ben Jacobs is on the road with Donald Trump... among other things amassing further entries for his amazing photo collection of Trump supporter’ T-shirts:

The Weiner crisis for the Clinton campaign turned out to be nothing, the FBI director reassured the world on Sunday:

The FBI has determined that a new batch of emails linked to Hillary Clinton’s private email server “have not changed our conclusion” that she committed no criminal wrongdoing, FBI director James Comey told congressional leaders in a letter on Sunday.

'End this misogynistic horror show'

Here’s Barbara Kingsolver, in an opinion piece for the Guardian:

When I was a girl of 11 I had an argument with my father that left my psyche maimed. It was about whether a woman could be the president of the US.

How did it even start? I was no feminist prodigy, just a shy kid who preferred reading to talking; politics weren’t my destiny. Probably, I was trying to work out what was possible for my category of person – legally, logistically – as one might ask which kinds of terrain are navigable for a newly purchased bicycle. Up until then, gender hadn’t darkened my mental doorway as I followed my older brother into our daily adventures wearing hand-me-down jeans.

But in adolescence it dawned on me I’d be spending my future as a woman, and when I looked around, alarm bells rang. My mother was a capable, intelligent, deeply unhappy woman who aspired to fulfilment as a housewife but clearly disliked the job. I saw most of my friends’ mothers packed into that same dreary boat. My father was a country physician, admired and rewarded for work he loved. In my primordial search for a life coach, he was the natural choice.

I probably started by asking him if girls could go to college, have jobs, be doctors, tentatively working my way up the ladder. His answers grew more equivocal until finally we faced off, Dad saying, “No” and me saying, “But why not?” A female president would be dangerous. His reasons vaguely referenced menstruation and emotional instability, innate female attraction to maternity and aversion to power, and a general implied ickyness that was beneath polite conversation.

I ended that evening curled in bed with my fingernails digging into my palms and a silent howl tearing through me that lasted hours and left me numb. The next day I saw life at a remove, as if my skull had been jarred. What changed for me was not a dashing of specific hopes, but an understanding of what my father – the person whose respect I craved – really saw when he looked at me. I was tainted. I would grow up to be a lesser person, confined to an obliquely shameful life.

Read the full piece here:

Someone passes Trump onstage in Sarasota a Trump mask. “Nice head of hair, I’ll say that,” Trump quips.

Earlier in his speech, Trump was all, “rap music, what is that?”

Watch Trump’s speech live.

The closing arguments

The Clinton campaign has just released a two-minute video making its closing argument to voters.

In the ad Clinton speaks straight to the camera, which draws closer and closer to her face, as a piano theme grows in volume and strings start to come in.

“I think we can all agree it’s been a long campaign,” she says. “It’s not just my name and my opponent’s name on the ballot. It’s the kind of country we want for our children and grandchildren. Is America dark and divisive, or hopeful and inclusive?”

It kind of looks like something you see if you go down the tunnel too close toward the light? But then the angel of mercy turns out to be Hillary Clinton? So you snap out of it and wake up blinking on the pavement, because heaven can wait?

Anyway. Here it is:

Tomorrow.

The Trump campaign released its version on Friday. Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta cracked on Sunday that it looks like something out of a Batman movie.

The difference in tone is unmistakable. So are the anti-Semitic overtones, which Josh Marshall at TPM wrote about yesterday:

From a technical and thematic perspective it’s a well made ad. It’s also packed with anti-Semitic dog whistles, anti-Semitic tropes and anti-Semitic vocabulary. I’m not even sure whether it makes sense to call them dog whistles. The four readily identifiable American bad guys in the ad are Hillary Clinton, George Soros (Jewish financier), Janet Yellen (Jewish Fed Chair) and Lloyd Blankfein (Jewish Goldman Sachs CEO).

Read further. And do watch:

Donald Trump’s argument.

Trump is immediately onstage – right on time – in Sarasota, Florida. He’s just said the system is rigged and Hillary Clinton should not be allowed to run for president. “What’s happening is a disgrace... with what’s happening with our justice, our country is a laughingstock all over the world. They’re laughing.”

Trump says people should vote tomorrow. “That’s how you beat the rigging, folks.” But if it’s rigged....

Updated

Florida, Florida, Florida

The electoral map once again has appeared to arrange itself in such a way that all analysis, as if drained by the Mississippi watershed, has been drawn ineluctably south and east. (Except not to the delta.) (To Florida.) (...)

Florida. If Trump loses it it’s almost surely over for him, barring a miracle in the upper midwest involving for example both Michigan and Wisconsin (though together they amount to only 26 electoral votes against Florida’s 29).

Florida. Where Gore lost it by winning it. Where Obama topped 50% twice. Where Clinton has 39 more offices than Trump. Where nonwhite early voting is significantly up in Miami-Dade. Where Democrats appear to be holding reasonably close in Jacksonville. Where Republicans may do better than expected in Palm Beach...

Florida’s complicated demographics – Republican retirees in the central state, Puerto Ricans around Orlando, tea-partiers in the panhandle, Cubans in Miami, undecideds in Tampa – immediately draw any discussion of the state’s general electoral disposition into an Everglades thicket of details. The good news: we may know earlier this year than usual which way Florida’s tilting. (In 2012, the state did not report results until four days after election day.)

Steve Schale is a Democratic analyst who ran Florida operations for Obama in 2008. He sees low-propensity Hispanic voters – meaning voters who weren’t judged especially likely to turn out – pushing the election in Clinton’s direction:

But two things emerged last week. One, this low propensity Hispanic thing became a thing. While Trump folks argued that Trump would turn out low propensity voters, we’d see slight edges for Democrats in this category. What became clear over days last week, this was a Hispanic deal, and as week 2 of early voting took hold, so did this surge. As of Saturday, Democrats had an edge of more than 175K low propensity voters.

Schale also sees serious strength for Clinton in Miami-Dade:

Dade is at 11.9% of all votes cast so far (should be 10.3%), and Broward is at 9.55%, where I had it pegged at 8.75%. The media market is a full two points bigger than it should be. If the Miami market finishes at 21.8% of all votes, this thing is cooked, and we will know it before 8:00 (assuming Miami decides to count all these ballots)

Schale sees Clinton “under-performing” in Palm Beach county, two counties north of Miami:

The red flag for Dems: Palm Beach. It is at 62% of its 2012 total, and it is also the county most “under-performing.” It should be about 7% of the state vote, but today it is about 5.9%. Of all the data points right now, this is the only one that concerns me. While Miami is more than making up for it, for HRC, win path is much easier with a more robust Palm Beach.

Recording artist Stevie Wonder performing prior to President Obama coming on stage at a Clinton rally at Osceola County Stadium, Kissimmee, Florida, November 6, 2016.
Recording artist Stevie Wonder performing prior to President Obama coming on stage at a Clinton rally at Osceola County Stadium, Kissimmee, Florida, November 6, 2016. Photograph: UPI / Barcroft Images

Here’s Schales conclusion:

I am going to write a wrap tomorrow for E-Day, but two questions I get a lot.

What am I worried about for HRC?

Really, almost nothing. I’ve mentioned the Palm Beach thing a few times, but right now, the diversity mix is rounding nicely into shape, and our best counties are way out-performing the state. Right now, she needs the organization on the ground to get this done on Tuesday

Could there be a Trump surge on Tuesday? It is possible, because the counties most under-performing right now are Trump counties. His problem, most of them are very small, part of what Jonathan Martin called the Gingrich Counties (where Newt beat Romney)-- those rural places in-between all the big counties.

All in all, the I-10 markets are way below where they should be, maybe as much as 3% below where its share should be. If that comes in tomorrow, it will tighten the race considerably.

Tomorrow’s memo will also lay out some things you watch for. If she wins by 3, we will know pretty well, probably before the Panhandle returns come back after 8. If it is close, prepare for a long night.

She was 9 or 10 years old (depending on whether she falls in Aquarius-Leo or in Virgo-Capricorn) when the 19th amendment giving women the right to vote was ratified.

Hi Grandma, what are you doing today?

Hillary Clinton has a granddaughter who just turned two, and a grandson who’s five months.

Philly transit strike ends

If voters in Philadelphia, prime Democratic territory, don’t turn up at the polls tomorrow, they will not have a weeklong public transit strike to blame. Pennsylvania is not an early-voting state; access to the polls on game day is crucial.

The strike ended early Monday, AP reports:

The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority and the union representing about 4,700 transit workers announced a tentative agreement early Monday.

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority Board Chairman Pasquale Deon said it is a fair deal that provides “wage increases, pension improvements, and maintains health care coverage levels while addressing rising costs.”

The five-year deal is still subject to ratification by union members and must be approved by the SEPTA board.

Strikers on 1 November.
Strikers on 1 November. Photograph: Jacqueline Larma/AP

The strike had really messed with traffic flow in the city:

The result has been traffic gridlock at morning and evening rush hours; jammed and delayed regional rail service and higher absenteeism at the city’s high schools. The troubles continued Monday morning despite the new deal, as commuters faced crowded roads and up to 30-minute delays on all regional rails due to signal problems.

Last campaign stops: Michigan, Michigan... Pennsylvania?

Donald Trump has rallies planned in no fewer than five states today: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan. Live in the United States? Donald Trump is likely coming to a tarmac near you.

That culminating stop in Michigan – in Grand Rapids – jumps out, as further evidence of the Trump campaign belief that they can pick off a state that has fallen for the Democratic presidential candidate going back six elections.

Trump running mate Mike Pence also has five events today, but in only four states, because Pence is going to Michigan twice. He hits Traverse City in the early afternoon, zips off to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and then circles back to join Trump in Grand Rapids.

Also in Michigan today: Barack Obama, visiting very blue Ann Arbor before he heads to New Hampshire.

Guess which Florida city this is in time’s up Kissimmee.
Guess which Florida city this is in time’s up Kissimmee. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Hillary Clinton is tending to Michigan today, too – and she’s going right to the heart of Republican support in the western state, visiting Ottawa county, which voted for Mitt Romney by 35 points in 2012. She also has a stop in Pittsburgh before kicking off her evening program.

About that evening program: the Clinton campaign announced that Bruce Springsteen would be appearing in an evening rally in Philadelphia, which also will include Barack and Michelle Obama and Bill and Chelsea Clinton.

At the 10th Annual Stand Up for Heroes event in NYC on 1 November.
At the 10th Annual Stand Up for Heroes event in NYC on 1 November. Photograph: Kevin Mazur/(Credit too long, see caption)

Clinton running mate Tim Kaine will be in North Carolina and at home in Virginia, Al Gore will be in Colorado, and vice president Joe Biden is assigned to Florida.

Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. The election’s tomorrow, and it’s time to make your predictions. Who’s going to win, and by how much?

US election: five scenarios

Will it be the Clinton Crush, the Trump Bank Shot, the Clinton Cliffhanger, the Al Gore, or the Make America Great Again? Read through five scenarios and see which one most closely fits your view. Or suggest a sixth!

Now click through to 270toWin to fill out your version of this map, feeling free of course to reject some of the basic calls we’ve made, such as Hillary Clinton claiming Nevada on the strength of early turnout by Latino voters, and Clinton claiming the upper midwestern states on the strength of polling and precedent. Or maybe Trump is obviously going to win Iowa, which we’ve not given him here?

Please share your results in the comments ... and we’ll be sharing ours. Today is a day for predictions, so when you’re done with that, weigh in on this little Twitter poll by Cook political report’s Dave Wasserman:

How much of the overall popular vote will Libertarian nominee (and pot enthusiast) Gary Johnson get?

Janet Reno dies aged 78

Janet Reno, the first woman to serve as US attorney general, has died aged 78. AP:

Reno died early on Monday from complications associated with Parkinson’s disease, her goddaughter, Gabrielle D’Alemberte, said. D’Alemberte said Reno spent her final days at home in Miami surrounded by family and friends.

A former Miami prosecutor who famously told reporters “I don’t do spin,” Reno served nearly eight years as attorney general under President Bill Clinton, the longest stint in a century.

Read further:

We have a lot for you today – thanks for reading and please join us in the comments!

Updated

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
49 Cringey Texts From Men That Are Bound To Make Your Blood Boil (New Pics)
If you've spent time on social media, dating apps, or even regular messaging platforms, you've probably seen a few cringe messages or posts from men. Some are simply embarrassing attempts at flirting, while others turn rude or insulting in the blink of an eye. People online have been posting some…
Bored Panda
Bored Panda
Why Fans Believe Zendaya Just Confirmed Those Tom Holland Wedding Rumours
Why Fans Believe Zendaya Just Confirmed Those Tom Holland Wedding Rumours
Marie Claire
Marie Claire
“The Matrix hack song to clear your debt and get wealthy”: Is Anita Ward’s Ring My Bell more than just a disco classic?
TikTok users are claiming that the ‘abundance frequency’ contained within the song can help you with your manifesting
MusicRadar
MusicRadar
There's A Rumor About Spider-Man: Brand New Day's Trailer That I Really Hope Is True
Fingers crossed.
Cinemablend
Cinemablend
How Rebel Wilson's Legal Feud Ties Back To Multiple People Involved With It Ends With Us' Case
It's all connected.
Cinemablend
Cinemablend
Zach Braff Forced To Speak Out After Facing Truly Bizarre Accusation
“Oh my God, this is not— we can’t put this on our podcast,” said hosts from I Need You Guys podcast.
Bored Panda
Bored Panda
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.
Download on the AppStore Get it on Google Play