The U.S. Department of Commerce has delayed the release of the initial third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate to just before Christmas, as federal agencies race to clear a backlog of critical economic reports created by the recent government shutdown.
Key Data Rescheduled
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a part of the Commerce Department, will not follow the usual three-step process for releasing the third-quarter GDP.
As a result of the delay caused by the shutdown, the BEA will release only two Q3 GDP estimates – the first one on Dec. 23 and a final one that is yet to be calendared (originally scheduled for Dec. 19).
The government has also rescheduled the release of the September personal income and spending report—including the personal-consumption expenditures price index, which is now slated for publication on Dec. 5.
Labor Rebound Clouds Rate Cut Outlook
The delayed GDP estimate comes in the wake of a strong rebound in the U.S. labor market in September, which has sparked uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut in December. Despite the hiring pickup, the unemployment rate edged up from 4.3% to 4.4%, marking the highest level since October 2021.
Top economist Justin Wolfers has warned that the rising unemployment rate signals a need for the U.S. to “cut back on the economic junk food.”
After shrinking in the first quarter, GDP grew at an annualized 3.8% in the April–June period. The U.S. economy is projected to grow modestly in 2026, according to a new NABE survey, though job creation is expected to remain weak. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the U.S. is poised for a "6% GDP growth" under President Donald Trump.
Criticism From Democrats
Responding to the news, Democratic Representative Darren Soto wrote on X, “Trump's tariff torture: My "advanced estimate" is that the economy is awful.”
Meanwhile, Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro took a jibe at the news and wrote on X, “They only do this when it’s really good news.”
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
