A story of supply and demand
Although electricity demand has fallen in the UK for nearly 20 years with the decline of heavy industry and more efficient appliances, demand is forecast to soar by 50% in the next decade to 2035 as the electrification of heat, industry and transport accelerates.
In 2019, the UK government committed to a legal target to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. The UK has also committed to reach 95% carbon-free electricity by 2030.
It’s a profound challenge: in order to achieve those goals, the UK will need to install up to 620 miles of new onshore power lines and more than 2,800 miles of offshore and accompanying network – more than double over five years than what has been built in the last 10.
As demand increases, we need to build and expand the grid to cope with more clean power, more homes and more businesses. Currently, when there is insufficient grid capacity for all the clean power we generate, its generation sometimes needs to be curtailed – which cost consumers £2bn in 2022. Building more grid will reduce these costs and unlock more capacity.
The role of renewables
To meet the government’s clean power targets, by 2030, offshore wind will need to provide more than half of Great Britain’s electricity generation. Onshore wind and solar will need to provide 29% of power generation [pdf].
In all, offshore and onshore wind, solar power and batteries will need to expand more on average [pdf] each year to 2030 than they have ever done in a single year before.
The UK has declining gas reserves and currently imports about 50% of its gas from international markets. These are subject to volatile pricing, dependent on what is happening globally.
2024 was a record breaker
In 2024, the UK’s electricity was the cleanest ever. Over the past decade, UK power has transformed, with CO2 emissions falling by more than two-thirds in a decade.
Renewables generated 51% of the UK’s electricity during 2024, the first year more than half of all electricity came from renewable sources.
Wind power overtook natural gas to become the UK’s greatest source of electricity generation for a full year, accounting for 30%. On 18 December 2024, wind provided a record 68.3% of Great Britain’s electricity.
The UK became the first G7 nation to phase out coal power last year with the closure of the last coal-fired power station in September.
Emissions from UK electricity have fallen 74% since 2014.
The global picture
In 2025, renewable energy has overtaken coal to become the world’s greatest source of electricity, making up 37% of global power supply.
Low carbon energy – renewables and nuclear – provided 40.9% of global electricity in 2024.
Clean electricity supply is forecast to meet all of the world’s demand growth through 2026.
Costs and investment
Investment in clean power of an estimated £40bn each year to 2030 [pdf], largely delivered by the private sector, is needed to help keep costs down.
Without an accelerated move to clean energy, a gas price spike similar to 2022 would add £10bn to electricity costs [pdf].
Grid and network upgrades alone will require £60bn of investment [pdf] in total up to 2030, with Britain’s three transmission operators – ScottishPower’s SP Energy Networks; Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks; and National Grid – recently outlining five-year plans to 2031 to adapt and develop the grid, with the distribution network operators set to follow suit in 2026.
More than nine in 10 (91%) of new renewable projects are now cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.
Progress and potential
The UK is the first major economy to halve its emissions – having cut them by 50% between 1990 and 2022.
Some 582 GW of renewable energy capacity were added to the global energy system in 2024, avoiding the use of an estimated $57bn (£42.9bn) worth of fossil fuels.
In 2022 the UK’s low carbon and renewable energy economy generated £69.4bn in turnover, up 28% from the previous year.
Supplying the goods and services to enable the global net zero transition could be worth £1tn to UK businesses by 2030.
The net zero economy is 1.7 times more productive than the UK national average.
Electric vehicles and heat pumps
Demand for electric vehicles has risen steadily in recent years – by the end of 2024, new electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for 28.2% of all new vehicles, rising to 32.1% by mid 2025.
Last year nearly 382,000 new electric cars rolled on to UK roads, representing nearly one in five cars sold, pushing the UK ahead of Germany to become Europe’s largest market for EVs for the first time. Nine in 10 EV sales are company cars.
While the UK has lagged major European markets in heat pumps, last year sales surged by 63%, with 98,000 homes installing a heat pump, making the UK one of Europe’s top 10 markets, although still behind major European neighbours.
A typical EV uses 3,000 kWh of electricity a year, and a family sized heat pump consumes 4,000 kWh. New devices sold in 2024 will add 1.5 TWh a year – 0.5% of total demand.
Residential heat pumps can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 70% compared with a gas boiler.
Britain’s electricity demand peaks on cold evenings at 50 GW. Heat pumps and EVs are forecast to more than double peak demand in 2050, adding 66 GW.
Could do better
The latest census (2021/22) revealed more than seven in 10 UK households still use gas to power central heating.
Transport and heating account for more than 40% of UK emissions.
UK homes are the leakiest in Europe and lose heat three times faster than those on the continent.
Buildings in the UK are responsible for 20% of the UK’s emissions, most of which come from heating.
Upgrading 13m homes to C-rated Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) could save consumers £24bn on energy bills by 2030.
More than half of homes in England and Wales are rated at EPC D or lower. In Scotland, more than half of all homes were rated EPC C or above.
