A lot of work went into this New Orleans Saints mock draft. We didn’t just fire up The Draft Network’s Mock Draft Machine to accurately simulate seven rounds of selections, though that was part of the experiment. We also referenced data from Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football to define athletic prototypes the Saints reference on both offense and defense. That helped whittle down a big board of prospect grades from The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, allowing us to make decisions with a similar (but of course not equal) frame of reference to what the Saints will have. In the end, we had a pool of about 139 players to choose from out of the roughly-300 who are eligible in this year’s draft.
But this time we decided to pitch a curve ball by projecting several different trade scenarios. While the Saints have traded down in just two drafts since Sean Payton was hired to coach the team (two of the first drafts he conducted, in fact), they have traded up every single year he’s overseen the process, except for 2006. Read on to find out which moves we made, relying on our draft pick valuation chart to come up with realistic offers.
Of course, if you’re only interested in the results and not the lengthy process that went into making those decisions, you can learn what happened to each pick at our disposal in a summary at this link.
Round 1
The best players available on our draft board:
- LB Patrick Queen, LSU
- OT Josh Jones, Houston
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
- LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma
- OT Austin Jackson, USC
- RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
In last week’s seven-round mock draft, we were also fortunate to have both of the top linebackers available. In this scenario, there are several highly-rated offensive linemen on the board. With both linebackers and Aiyuk up for grabs, we decided to try and trade down.
So, we first called the Miami Dolphins, offering the No. 24 overall pick for No. 26 — picking up their fourth-round selection (No. 141) along the way. They said no dice. Then we tried the Seattle Seahawks, picking at No. 27. We suggested swapping our first-round choice for theirs, while also trading our fourth-round pick (Nos. 130) and our sixth-round choice (No. 203) for their third-rounder (No. 101). Moving down a few spots and sacrificing that late-round pick was worth it to jump 30 spots up the board earlier on.
The Seahawks accepted that deal and selected Georgia Bulldogs right tackle Isaiah Wilson, who wasn’t even on our board. It’s also kind of realistic; Wilson’s name has popped up recently as a riser in media circles, and the Seahawks have botched several first-round picks lately like running back Rashaad Penny and pass rusher L.J. Collier, who couldn’t get on the field in the playoffs last year. Good luck, 12’s.
So back to our selection. None of the five players on our board had been picked yet, so we made a few quick calls to see if we could move down again. We tried to talk each of the teams picking immediately after us into giving up a fifth-rounder so they could leapfrog the others; the Baltimore Ravens (at No. 28) and Tennessee Titans (at No. 29) each turned us down, but the Green Bay Packers (owning No. 31 after an unrelated deal with the San Francisco 49ers) accepted. That netted pick No. 175, not too far off from the selection we ceded earlier.
And the only player in our cloud to be picked was Murray. Two others further down on our board (interior lineman Cesar Ruiz, pass-rusher Yetur Gross-Matos, and wide receiver Denzel Mims) were picked, but we’ve stretched our luck far enough. Another trade down would be too risky. So we went with Aiyuk, by far the highest-rated receiver available. His run-after-catch skills and straight-line speed should add a missing element to the Saints receiving corps, and seriously push Tre’Quan Smith for playing time.
Queen was considered here, but we picked him in the first round last time. By going in a different direction, we will can explore other opportunities to add a linebacker, especially with two third-round picks to work with. Here’s what our draft picks look like after those two trades, going into the second round:
- Round 1, No. 31 (via Green Bay Packers, from San Francisco 49ers): WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
- Round 3, No. 88: TBD
- Round 3, No. 101 (via Seattle Seahawks): TBD
- Round 5, No. 169: TBD
- Round 5, No. 176 (via Green Bay Packers): TBD
Round 2
There were a few times in which we considered trading up here. Texas A&M defensive tackle Justin Madubuike fell into the 40’s, and he’s someone we had rated highly. But our current-year draft capital wouldn’t be enough for such a leap, and it’s tough to justify giving up future picks for a player at a position the Saints run so deep at already.
Round 3
Another opportunity to trade up came in the late 60’s. Boise State left tackle Ezra Cleveland was someone we graded as a fringe first- or second-round pick, and he was still available at a point in which we could have swapped both our third-rounders. Other prospects on the board (on a tier clearly beneath him) included small-school standout safety Kyle Dugger, Mississippi State linebacker Willie Gay Jr., and a handful of receivers. But spending two of our four remaining picks on one player didn’t make sense at this stage in the draft.
However, several linebackers went off the board not long after. That included players on our radar such as Texas Tech’s Jordan Brooks and Ohio State’s Malik Harrison. Those departures left a sizable gap between our fourth-rated linebacker (Gay, ranked 39th on our big board) and the remaining option, ranked seventh-best at the position (Wyoming’s Logan Wilson, 50th overall). With the Las Vegas Raiders making back-to-back picks at Nos. 80 and 81, we jumped on the phone to try and snag one of those selections and address our biggest remaining roster need, before it was too late.
Giving up both of our third-round picks here wouldn’t make sense, so we started out offering the earlier choice (No. 88) along with the fifth rounder (No. 176) we received from Green Bay earlier. While we expected it would take another asset to seal the deal, Sean Payton’s old friend Jon Gruden did us a solid and accepted that offer. We then hurried to phone it into the league office, along with our chosen prospect: Gay.
Gay should provide a serious boost to the special teams coverage units, which Payton identified as an area of need on a recent conference call. He’ll also push both Alex Anzalone and Kiko Alonso for starting jobs, which is important given their injury histories. Gay has tremendous athleticism to cover the field laterally, great instincts for defending zone coverage, and has reportedly impressed teams in his interviews, clearing up some off-field concerns surrounding suspensions for team rules violations. An early-season foot injury didn’t hold him back, and shouldn’t be a problem in the NFL (unlike Anzalone’s recurring shoulder issues).
On top of that, we’re on the clock again (thanks, Seattle). Some of the players we discussed targeting in earlier trades were available, including Cleveland. Here’s the top five prospects on our board here, at positions not already addressed:
- OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State
- DT Jordan Elliott, Missouri
- RB Joshua Kelley, UCLA
- G/C John Simpson, Clemson
- SS Terrell Burgess, Utah
Cleveland’s grade is so much higher than the other players (he was the 25th-best player on our board; next-closest was Elliott at 45th) that this was an easy decision to make, even if we gave Simpson (our 54th-rated prospect) some real thought as a potential replacement for Larry Warford at right guard. It’ll take some time in an NFL weight room to reach his potential — Cleveland lacks core strength, and can be outmuscled by a determined, well-timed bull rush — but the agility he boasts is rare for someone his size.
He’s also very durable; Cleveland missed just one start in three years, gutting out a turf toe issue that hit him early in the 2019 season. He can wait in the wings behind Terron Armstead at left tackle, and ensure that Andrus Peat stays at left guard should Armstead miss time managing injuries. Contracts with both Armstead and all-star right tackle Ryan Ramczyk will be up in a few years, so adding Cleveland now gives the Saints an option to fall back on should either of them end up leaving in free agency.
This might have been an opportunity to trade down and add more picks, but there weren’t any compelling offers on the table. At least nothing that would have brought in better than an early seventh-round selection. Moving too far back would jeopardize our shot at adding Cleveland. Here’s the state of our mock draft after the first three rounds:
- Round 1, No. 31 (via Green Bay Packers, from San Francisco 49ers): WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
- Round 3, No. 80 (via Las Vegas Raiders): LB Willie Gay Jr., Mississippi State
- Round 3, No. 101 (via Seattle Seahawks): OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State
- Round 5, No. 169: TBD
That’s not much to work with on the final day of the draft, but follow along to see how it all played out. Having more than one hundred selections pass between our last pick and our next choice is not ideal; maybe we can make a move.
Round 4:
The fourth round passed without much incident. The top tight end remaining on our board, Florida Atlantic’s Harrison Bryant, was picked up, and there was a run on both wide receivers and linebackers, which we were lucky to have gotten ahead of with earlier moves. A few safeties we liked were snatched up, but none of them would have ranked even third-best on this year’s depth chart, so it’s not too large of a concern.
Everything was flowing smoothly until the Eagles drafted Simpson with the final pick of round four. Like the Raiders earlier, they had back-to-back selections, and we tried to trade up. But an inability to exchange future draft picks meant we didn’t have enough firepower to make a deal (that’s not a feature the Draft Network crew have implemented yet). The top-rated talents available going into the fifth round were:
- RB Joshua Kelley, UCLA
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri
- TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA
- CB Reggie Robinson II, Tulsa
- DE Trevis Gipson, Tulsa
Round 5:
There were a few guards and cornerbacks on our radar here, but the group of prospects graded highest on our board remained intact. There were many similarly-rated tight ends available, so we’re comfortable waiting to address a position of lower need than others.
In the end it came down to the two Tulsa teammates. They were both first-team All-AAC talents, with Robinson, the cornerback, leading the team with four of its five interceptions and 17 pass deflections, fifth-most in the FBS. Gipson, the pass rusher, led Tulsa in sacks each of the past two years and timed the 40-yard dash in 4.69 seconds at his pro day, weighing in at just over 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds. That’s a body type the Saints are already stocked up with between Trey Hendrickson, Carl Granderson, and Noah Spence.
So we had to go with Robinson based off their full scouting reports. Robinson is a size-speed prototype (covering the 40-yard dash in 4.44 seconds at 6-foot-0, 205 pounds) with extensive experience defending routes out on the perimeter, a skills set the Saints lack depth in (backup corners P.J. Williams and Deatrick Nichols have done most of their work from the slot). He’ll have time to nail down the nuances of the position behind Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins while contributing on special teams, where he’s blocked a field goal and two point-after kicks at Tulsa.
Rounds 6 and 7:
So, we didn’t have any picks to make here. In reality, the Saints would probably considering trading some late-round selections in next year’s draft for current-year picks, as they’ve often done in the past. That would allow them to land some players they otherwise couldn’t expect to sign as undrafted free agents.
But considering how talented the Saints roster stands, few rookies would have a shot at sticking on the 53-man depth chart when the season kicks off. We saw that happen just a few years ago when the 2018 draft class was decimated during roster cuts; of that group, only first-round pick Marcus Davenport, third-round pick Tre’Quan Smith, and seventh-round pick Will Clapp remain. By targeting better prospects with clear paths to contributing as rookies in this mock draft, we’ve helped increase their odds of success.
Still, there were a few names graded highly on our board that fell through the cracks and into undrafted free agency. Those are prospects the Saints could try to sign after the draft, helping round out the 90-man roster. And sometimes they blow away all expectations — just look at what returns specialist Deonte Harris and defensive tackle Shy Tuttle accomplished last year. Here’s the five best prospects still available for the Saints to recruit at the end of the day:
- DE Trevis Gipson, Tulsa (8th DE, 71st prospect)
- WR John Hightower, Boise State (11th WR, 74th prospect)
- S Josh Metellus, Michigan (6th S, 88th prospect)
- RB Deejay Dallas, Miami ( RB, 94th prospect)
- LB Carter Coughlin, Minnesota ( LB, 98th prospect)
You can recap this mock draft’s results and the numerous trades we made in the gallery linked below:
