We’re just weeks away from NFL training camp, which means the regular season is right around the corner. Another sign that the NFL is nearly back in our lives: Westgate has released its updated MVP odds for the 2019 season.
Unsurprisingly, the reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes is the favorite with 4/1 odds. Directly behind him are three players who have never won the award: Drew Brees (10/1), Andrew Luck (8/1) and Carson Wentz (10/1).
Tom Brady, who has been named MVP three times during his career, has odds of 12/1. The only other quarterbacks with an MVP trophy on their mantle are lagging far behind. Matt Ryan is sitting at 25/1 while Cam Newton is at 60/1.
We’ve enlisted For the Win’s Steven Ruiz and Charles Curtis to pick out their favorite bets from Westgate’s board. Both picked one player with short odds (up to 20/1), one with medium odds (21/1 to 99/1) and one longshot (100/1 and above).
Short odds (up to 20/1)
Steven Ruiz: Philip Rivers (14/1)
My first pick was Andrew Luck, but I don’t know if 8/1 is really good value. Then eyed Tom Brady, but I’m a little concerned about the signs of decline we saw in his game during the 2018 season. I landed on Philip Rivers. His odds are enticing and Rivers was right in this race a year ago. The Chargers will be even better in 2019 — they might even win the AFC West — and if Rivers puts up big numbers, voters won’t be able to resist the story.
Charles Curtis: Drew brees (10/1)
I too am high on Luck, but I’ll try to squeeze some value out of Brees. I think the Saints are by far the best team in the NFC and the 40-year-old had a career-high last year of 74.4 completion percentage. I know, I know — he only attempted 489 throws, his lowest total since 2004. But what if he gets his touchdown total into the 40s and keeps his interceptions down (he threw just FIVE last year!!) and the Saints have a near-perfect season? I’ll add in that maybe voters will feel he needs his late-career MVP like Martin Scorsese needed his Best Director Oscar.
Medium odds (21/1 to 99/1)
Steven Ruiz: Cam Newton (60/1)
If Cam Newton is healthy and the Panthers are in the running for the NFC South (which I think they will be), he will absolutely be one of the top candidates for the award. At least he should be. No quarterback influences every aspect of his offense like Newton does. Don’t forget: Newton was putting up the best numbers of his career and was getting some MVP buzz before aggravating a shoulder injury that tanked his and the Panthers’ season.
Charles Curtis: Matt Ryan (25/1)
Steven took my pick, so I fully endorse Newton at those odds. In the interest of not repeating ourselves, I’ll focus on Ryan. The Falcons were mediocre last season, but Ryan nearly reached 5,000 yards and threw just seven INTs. The Falcons’ line could be better thanks to two first-rounders and maybe Calvin Ridley takes the next step forward, and perhaps Ryan returns to 2016 levels.
Longshot (100/1 and above)
Steven Ruiz: Dak Prescott (100/1)
There isn’t much value once you get past the 100/1 mark, but Dak Prescott provides some. A lot more than any non-QB on the list. Mitchell Trubisky isn’t a bad option at 200/1 but I fully expect the Bears to take a step back. The Cowboys figure to be pretty good and they always get media attention. If Prescott has a 2016-like year, he will certainly be in the running.
Charles Curtis: Lamar jackson (100/1)
I’m actually excited about this one. May I remind you that Jackson started seven games in 2018, and in those contests, he rushed for 556 yards? And if you project that over 16 games, you get 1,271 yards, which would be more than Michael Vick’s 1,039 rushing yards in 2006? Plus, what if he spent the offseason vastly improving his passing? If he single-handedly carries the Ravens to the playoffs, he might be a sleeper candidate for MVP.
