Up to 20 Conservatives could vote against the government in a confidence motion to stop a soft Brexit or a long delay, the former Brexit secretary David Davis has said.
Davis, who did not rule out running for the party leadership, said significant numbers of MPs were prepared to put the delivery of Brexit above their party allegiance.
His warning came as Theresa May’s cabinet met on Tuesday morning, though the planned lengthy session has been shortened in light of the results of the indicative votes in the Commons. Instead, ministers will meet for two hours of political cabinet – without civil servants – and then for a normal cabinet meeting.
On Monday night, MPs came within three votes of backing a post-Brexit customs union with the EU, but no Brexit option reached a majority.
The cabinet meeting changes prompted speculation that ministers had previously believed they were heading for defeat. May had been expected to propose a runoff between her Brexit deal and any compromise option supported by a majority of MPs.
The former minister Nick Boles, who spearheaded a drive to get MPs to back an alternative Norway-style deal dubbed “common market 2.0”, quit the party on the floor of the house, saying the Tories had never been prepared to compromise.
Davis said a general election would not necessarily break the impasse. “I would make one warning to the cabinet this morning: don’t be sure every Conservative MP would vote for you if it was made a confidence vote,” he said on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“One or two have said already, I think there are probably 20 who would say [Brexit] is so important, it’s the future of the country, it’s our destiny at stake, it’s more important than the Tory party.”
On Tuesday morning, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said the UK had three options: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50.
(April 10, 2019) Plan or extension agreed by EU27?
Having asked for a further Article 50 extension until 30 June, Theresa May will present whatever deal or plan she has reached with Jeremy Corbyn and parliament to the European Council. EU leaders would decide how long any further extension might run, but there is no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree.
(April 12, 2019) Possible no deal departure?
With no other significant developments, this would still be the date that the UK leaves the EU by international law. However, Yvette Coooper's bill in parliament is attempting to legislate to rule this out.
(May 23, 2019) European parliamentary elections
The EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been delayed beyond Theresa May's new proposed date of 30 June, then the UK could still hold European elections on Thursday 23 May.
(June 30, 2019) Possible departure with a deal?
If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, and is approved by the European Council, then this could be the new scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. Crucially it is before the new European parliament sits, meaning the UK would not have had to participate in the elections.
(July 1, 2019) Conservative leadership election?
Theresa May is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on whatever date, having agreed that somebody else should lead the next phase of negotiations. This will trigger a Conservative leadership election. There has been some suggestion that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.
(April 10, 2020) Possible departure after a 'Flextension'
Donald Tusk has proposed a flexible extension, allowing the UK to leave the EU at some point before a cut-off date of 10 April 2020, at the point where the UK parliament can ratify an orderly departure.
“The UK may ask for another extension. Such an extension would carry significant risks for the EU,” he said. “Therefore a strong justification would be needed. We have always said that we can accept a customs union, or relationship along the style of the Norway model.”
Davis said a long delay to Brexit “would tear apart” the Conservative party. “You saw what happened last night with Nick Boles. You would see some bleeding away of people but … you would almost certainly have a leadership election and then all bets are off,” he said.
The Conservative MP Oliver Letwin, one of the key drivers behind the push for parliament to hold indicative votes on Brexit options, was expected to lay out his plans later on Tuesday for parliament to hold a fresh round of indicative votes on Wednesday.
A number of Tory MPs have already publicly suggested they could vote against the prime minister in a confidence motion in order to force a change of leadership or a general election. Any Tory MP who voted against the government would be risking their chance of standing again as a Tory candidate.
Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group of hard Brexiters, told the BBC the option of voting against the government in a confidence motion was possible.
“We are approaching the point where the stakes are now so very high, and so transcend party politics and what this country is about and the fundamental British value that political power rests on consent, that I think these things are coming on to the table,” he said. “There’s no point denying things are running away.”
