A study group of the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) estimated that 0.45% to 0.63% of Japan's elderly population could become seriously ill with the new coronavirus if no measures are taken to prevent the spread of infections.
The estimates, based on Chinese patient data, are not intended to predict the actual course of the outbreak, but rather to help calculate the possible number of patients at peak times. The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry has asked prefectural governments to prepare for a full-scale outbreak of the disease, such as by securing enough hospital beds.
Hokkaido University Prof. Hiroshi Nishiura and his group estimated that an average of 6.5% to 10.6% of the population, across age groups, would be infected with the virus in three infectivity scenarios: low, moderate and high. In addition to the rate of infection, the rate of hospitalization and the rate of serious cases requiring intensive care and other treatment were estimated for three age groups: 14 or younger, 15 to 64, and 65 or older.
The estimate was compiled on the premise that measures to prevent infection had not been taken. In actuality, many events in Japan have been cancelled or postponed, so Nishiura said, "In fact, the rates are expected to be lower than estimated."
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