Snow and sunshine, gales and rain, frosts and heatwaves – in weather terms, October is one of the most fickle of all the months.
In October 2008, London saw below zero temperatures and a heavy fall of snow – the first recorded for the capital in October since 1934, three-quarters of a century before. Yet seven years earlier, in October 2001, southern Britain had sweltered in unseasonably warm weather. And that was repeated in October 2005, one of the warmest on record.
Two years later, in October 2007, Scotland enjoyed balmy weather, with temperatures reaching 21C in the Scottish Highlands as late as the 27th of the month – a UK record for that date.
The period around 18 October, St Luke’s Day, is reputed to coincide with a spell of fine weather known as “St Luke’s little summer” or, in more recent times, an “Indian summer”.
As with much weather folklore, the accuracy of this is easily disputed. And that’s also the case for predictions that suggest the weather in October helps us forecast the conditions for the coming winter. “Warm October, cold February” is one such saying, along with “much rain in October, much wind in December”.
As with the widespread belief that the early arrival of wintering wildfowl from the north is a sign of harsh winter weather to come, these predictions have no basis in reality.
So if you see flocks of geese passing overhead this month, enjoy the spectacle but don’t rely on it as a long-term weather forecast.
