The reclusive, xenophobic generals who rule Burma are denying entry to aid workers and disaster specialists trying to reach the areas devastated by Cyclone Nargis. Those who do get visas are normally restricted to the capital, Yangon [Rangoon]. It appears to be the worst-ever case of aid blockage - even trumping the hermit state of North Korea during its famine crisis. Pyongyang did at least allow World Food Programme officials into the country.
That is the bad news. The moderately good news, reported by Red Cross and UN agencies, is that the number of aid flights has increased, some aid is reaching the desperate survivors, and that local staff and the Burmese Red Cross staff and volunteers are doing a "heroic job in impossible circumstances."
UN agencies and the EU have held frantic talks to try and persuade the junta to open up Burma to disaster relief specialists. The regime's response - to ask for more aid, but refuse the accompanying workers entry - is totally unconvincing. They fear US-led aid will lead to the overthrow of their regime, and that prospect alarms them far more than the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Burmese who lack shelter, clean water and adequate food.
The junta's intransigence has forced the UN and the aid community to do some brainstorming about how to deal with the aid obstructions. Many are convinced that the humanitarian imperative and the cause of saving lives should override the sacrosanct conventions of respecting national sovereignty.
A Burmese dissident leader in Bangkok, Zaw Min, who is the foreign affairs chief for DPNS (Democratic Party for a New Society) told me: "Countries with planes and ships should push aid into Burma without the consent of the junta. The international community tends to wait for huge number of deaths before acting. World leaders are just waiting for more bad news."
But this is highly unlikely to happen. Only France and the US have suggested imposing humanitarian aid on a regime that is clearly dragging its feet. According to International Red Crescent and International Red Cross, many aid organisations are taking the more feasible option of training Burmese nationals to manage the relief operation and upgrade their skills in disaster management. While the military has hindered other voluntary aid efforts, the local Red Cross teams have managed to get aid to an estimated 500,000 of the 2.5 million extremely needy people. But nobody, excepting the junta, accepts that ad hoc reliance on overworked Burmese local staff of the UN and 20,000 Burmese Red Cross volunteers can substitute for all the expertise, coordination and planning that international staff can provide.
The French foreign minister has invoked a UN clause which asserts that the international community has a "responsibility to help protect people from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity when their own government is either unable or unwilling to do so." If there is a second wave of deaths directly caused by the regime's deliberate obstruction of international aid, what has come to be known as R2P may apply. It does not authorise military intervention, as many mistakenly believe, but it would assess whether crimes against humanity are being committed through a denial of aid and/or other atrocities.
However, the credibility of calls for humanitarian intervention and the UN's "mandate to protect" have not been helped by their association with Nato's war in Kosovo and Tony Blair's attempt to justify the invasion of Iraq on humanitarian grounds. Aggressive anti-junta rhetoric by the US has certainly not helped. A stronger UN consensus depends on aid operations being clearly separated from US politics and the agendas of western powers.
Zaw Min agrees that any humanitarian intervention in Burma that sidestepped the generals' sovereignty "should not be led by the US". Fortunately, other countries also have helicopters and ships. Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and India all have a good number of planes and boats and given their friendly relations with the regime they have more chance than the UN of getting a green light. But they have failed to respond with any sense of urgency.
The Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) countries that should have taken the lead as a regional organisation will convene their first emergency meeting on Burma on May 19 - 17 days after the cyclone struck. The rich island of Singapore has offered only a miserly $200,000 in aid. Sadly for the suffering and the destitute victims of uncaring regimes, a strong UN-mandate based on a compelling humanitarian consensus is still a long way off.
Note from CifEditor: a correction was made to this piece on May 18 2008 at 15:00. In the first paragraph, an editing error had introduced a mistake not in the author's original, erroneously naming Burma's capital as Bangkok. Apologies are due to the author and readers.
