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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Unlike Shriti Vadera, I was right, says Lamont

Baroness Shriti Vadera: 'It is a very uncertain world at the moment, globally'
Lady Vadera. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/Guardian

Shriti Vadera had a torrid afternoon yesterday explaining away her decision to use Norman Lamont's phrase about the "green shoots" of recovery.

One person who thinks that the comparision between the two politicians is unfair is Lamont himself. He tells the Financial Times that his "green shoots" remark was "pretty accurate" when he made it in October 1991.

When I said it we had been one year in recession. She is claiming the recession over before it has been formally announced.

The FT does not entirely agree with Lamont, but it concedes that he has a point.

In the autumn of 1991, it was clear the recession that started a year earlier had passed its worst, but the economy was stagnant for almost another year before recovery began in earnest in the third quarter of 1992.

When Lord Lamont made his green shoots comment, contemporary forecasts by the government and the International Monetary Fund were more optimistic. The IMF was predicting 2.4% growth in 1992. The reality turned out to be expansion of 0.1%.

The big difference between then and now was that the big drop in investment had taken place and unemployment had reached 2.8 million, almost its peak. Neither is remotely true in the current recession.

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