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Nottingham Post
Nottingham Post
National
Kirstie McCrum

University of Nottingham expert warns 'UK will have one of the largest number of total coronavirus deaths'

The UK could have one of the “larger number” of coronavirus-related deaths in Europe - that's according to a University of Nottingham pandemic modelling expert.

But Keith Neal, emeritus professor in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, said that's only because the country’s population is so big.

His comments come as the UK's death toll topped 10,000 on Easter Sunday.

Professor Neal told PA news agency: “The daily trend in the UK appears to be slowing but we need another week to be sure, especially with possible reporting delays over the holiday period.

“It is likely that the UK will have one of the largest number of total deaths solely because we the second largest population in western Europe and EU countries, only Germany has a larger population."

The USA has the highest Covid-19 death toll in the world - 21,656 - but the highest in Europe are currently 19,899 in Italy, 16,972 in Spain and 14,393 in France.

“The important figure is the death rate per million and the total number of deaths.

“On this count Belgium seems to be heading for a serious problem like Italy and Spain.”

Belgium's death toll is currently 3,600, considered high for their relatively small population of 11.5million people.

Professor Neil spoke last week about how genetics may explain why some people with coronavirus can bounce back quicker than others.

"Boris is a little bit [bigger] than the Prince of Wales and we know that people who are overweight are more at risk," he added.

A man wearing a mask walks past coronavirus related graffiti in Edinburgh (Andrew Milligan/PA Wire)

"Age clearly puts you at increased risk...[but] I suspect that the Prince of Wales is in pretty good shape for his age.

"He also comes from a long line of long-life people, from his grandmother and mother and father - nearly one hundred and still alive, so he's probably got a good genetic stock in that sense."

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