HYDERABAD: A new study by researchers at the University of Hyderabad (UoH) has uncovered two models that can predict the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), known as ‘Indian Nino’, beyond two to five years. Prediction of this tropical phenomenon well in advance would help improve the Indian monsoon prediction skill.
For the past few year, India has been witnessing extreme rainfall events. The IOD is a natural climate driver that influences rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean and affects global climate.
Currently, the IOD can be predicted six months before the occurrence of the event. Given the impact of the IOD, the UoH team collaborated with prof Mat Collins of the University of Exeter to conduct decadal predictions i.e., prediction of climate information for the near future of IOD. The newly emerging field of decadal prediction is all about forecasting the climate for the next 5-20 years, helping stakeholders in decision making and strategising.
“Positive IOD events cause below normal rainfall in Indonesia and Australia, heat waves in Japan, Europe and East Africa, and fires in Australia, Indonesia. The impact of the IOD can be seen all the way to Europe and America as well. Negative IODs have a tendency to reduce the seasonal monsoon rainfall along the monsoon trough. In fact, a negative IOD event was prominent till August, and is the likely factor for the below normal rainfall in north India till second week of August or so,” said prof Ashok Karumuri at Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, UoH, adding that the results were only indicative.
