UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) is enduring one of the most brutal drawdowns in its history—down 22% in a month, and 63% from its all-time highs.
But under the wreckage lies a paradox: this isn't your average broken stock. Some analysts are now calling it the "Meta moment" for America's largest healthcare behemoth.
- Track UNH stock’s dive here.
The Selloff Is Violent—And Potentially Overdone
UnitedHealth just broke to a new five-year low of $234.60, pushing its RSI (relative strength index) into deeply oversold territory at 24. In trader-speak, this kind of technical breakdown usually signals panic—not fundamentals.
And that's what makes the collapse so perplexing. The company remains the third-largest by revenue in the US, pulling in a staggering $400 billion annually.
To put that in perspective, that's more than three times Meta's revenue at its 2022 low—yet UNH trades at a lower valuation than Meta did back then.
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Free Cash Flow King With No Crown
In 2022, Meta experienced a free fall when its market cap touched $245 billion with $19.3 billion in free cash flow.
UnitedHealth? It's now at $215 billion market cap with $25.3 billion in free cash flow. The math is screaming undervaluation.
If the stock were valued on par with even the lowest tier of Big Tech multiples, bulls argue UNH would be trading far north of its current level.
Policy Winds Favor UNH
According to the White House, President Donald Trump's MFN (most-favored-nation) drug pricing proposal may give UnitedHealth a significant regulatory advantage.
Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) reforms and a 2026 premium reset under the recent One Big Beautiful Bill Act could unlock additional free cash flow, while AI-driven fraud detection could trim reported wasteful spending.
Further changes to the Medicaid system, as outlined in the new legislation, are also expected to have a significant impact on healthcare in the U.S., including work requirements. CBS News highlights that 92% of adult Medicaid recipients are already working.
Optum Insight: The Hidden AI Gem Wall Street’s Ignoring
Optum Insight, UnitedHealth's AI- and data-driven subsidiary, raked in $4.8 billion last quarter alone. That's more than Palantir Technologies Inc's (NASDAQ:PLTR) entire annual revenue ($3.1 billion) , yet Palantir trades at a $360 billion market valuation compared to UNH's $215 billion.
If UnitedHealth is quietly building the operating system for healthcare, the market may be mispricing not just the present—but the entire future.
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