United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) CEO Scott Kirby pitched a merger to American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) in April and got publicly turned down.
Three months later, traders give him just a 15% chance of even saying the words “American Airlines” on Thursday’s earnings call.
That is one of a dozen phrases being handicapped on Kalshi ahead of the report from United, due Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Wall Street expects profit to roughly halve, with consensus near $1.84 per share against $3.87 a year ago, after the war with Iran sent jet fuel soaring.
What Kalshi Predicts Kirby Will Say
“Starlink” is at 93%. United is racing the satellite WiFi onto its fleet and promises free service on every plane by the end of 2027, so Kirby rarely misses a chance to mention it.
“Record” sits at 85% after United flew a record three million passengers over Memorial Day weekend, part of a summer expected to bring more than 53 million travelers.
“Newark” trades at 69%, and this year the word is a boast rather than an apology.
After last spring’s radar outages, the airport has posted the best on-time numbers of any major Northeast airport in 2026, and Kirby now calls it the crown jewel of United’s network. “World Cup” matches it at 69%, with Sunday’s final kicking off 15 miles from that hub.
The Cost Question
“Oil” trades at 68% and rose 4 points Wednesday, because the fuel problem is getting worse, not better. The US-Iran memorandum signed last month is fraying, with American strikes on Iran running three straight days and Brent crude at a one-month high near $86.
That puts fresh scrutiny on Kirby’s April comments, when he told analysts United would keep roughly 20% of its fare increases if fuel normalized, a share that may grow toward 80% the longer the conflict runs.
Rep. Ritchie Torres accused the airline of planning to pocket the savings.
“Union” is at 31%. The flight attendant contract took effect May 31, adding 31% average raises and $741 million in retro pay to United’s costs.
The airline showed its answer Tuesday, unveiling A321XLR cabins capped at exactly 150 seats by blocking two middle seats, a number that happens to cut the required crew from five flight attendants to four.
Reading The Board
Traders expect a victory lap on Newark, careful answers on fuel and labor, and silence on the merger.
Delta beat estimates Friday and airline stocks fell anyway, with United down roughly 11% this month. What Kirby needs to sell is that expensive fuel is a toll, not a trend. Analysts have been raising price targets into the report.
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