The Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) debate was likely a significant factor in the the Conservatives’ Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election win, a political researcher said.
Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economic’s Department of Government said the result, which saw Steve Tuckwell win by 495 votes, may not be indicative of national voting trends because of the strong presence of what is a local issue.
The constituency’s new MP said in his victory speech it was London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s “damaging and costly Ulez policy” that cost Labour the election.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives failed to retain Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, losing to Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively.
Prof Travers said of Boris Johnson’s old constituency: “It looks as if some number of around 10 percentage points of the vote didn’t swing because of Ulez.
“The Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome results tell us more about the future of British politics because Ulez is only an issue in outer London.”
We all want to breathe clean air, but we don't have to do it by hitting people in the pocket— Howard Cox, Reform UK
He said Labour, which failed to win the seat despite concentrated campaigning, will be thinking “long and hard” about the Ulez policy before next year’s general election, when they will try to win seats in other outer London boroughs.
“Politicians who underestimate the power of the car – and the use of cars and the freedom that cars bring and as a driver of votes – do so at their peril,” Prof Travers said.
Howard Cox, the Reform UK candidate for London mayor and whose campaign is backed by the group Action Against Ulez Extension, said the issue of air pollution has been overblown and described Ulez and other traffic reduction schemes a “cash grab”.
Government health officials have called air pollution the “largest environmental risk to public health” and estimate that noxious fumes kill between 28,000 and 36,000 people every year, with a £1.6 billion cost to the NHS between 2017 and 2025.
Mr Cox said “regressive” schemes like Ulez hit the poorest hardest and if he becomes mayor next year he will scrap Ulez from all areas of London.
He said: “We all want to breathe clean air but we don’t have to do it by hitting people in the pocket.
“It’s damaging the GDP of London, it’s damaging people and it’s adding to the cost-of-living crisis. What we need to do is be sensible and incentivise people to move to cleaner fuels, not punish them.”
A source close to Mr Khan said: “Winning Uxbridge and South Ruislip was always going to be a struggle for Labour.
“Labour hasn’t won this seat for five decades and Tony Blair didn’t even win it during the 1997 landslide.
“Sadiq has always been clear that expanding the Ulez was a really difficult decision but necessary to save the lives of young and vulnerable Londoners.
“The issue of toxic air pollution damaging Londoners’ health is too big to ignore and the expansion will result in five million more Londoners breathing cleaner air.”
Leo Murray, co-director of the climate charity Possible, said: “A majority of Londoners support Ulez and outer Londoners want cleaner air.
“Today’s result reminds us that clean air policies have to be fair for absolutely everyone, with fully funded scrappage schemes and investment in cheap, reliable public transport.
“We can’t let basic public health policy be turned into a political football. Whatever the government of the day, they have to support mayors and councils in cleaning up our toxic air.
“Once we get this right, nobody will want to go back to how things were.”
