Donald Trump has said the US would come to the defence of Poland and the Baltic states if Russia were to attack in future.
Asked by reporters whether Washington would come to the aid of the Nato members if Russia were to continue escalating, he replied: “Yeah I would.”
His comments follow a number of incursions from Moscow in Nato territory. In the past fortnight, Russian drones and fighter jets have entered Estonian, Polish and Romanian air space - drawing international condemnation.
Under Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the US would be obliged to assist Poland, Estonia and Romania in the event of a Russian attack as military action against one member is considered an attack against all members.
Last week, Trump said the drone and fighter jet incursions could spell “big trouble” in an indication that he is becoming increasingly frustrated with Russia’s actions. However, he has not outlined plans to respond.
Czech president Petr Pavel has said Nato forces must shoot down Russian jets if necessary, demanding a more forceful response to Moscow’s repeated violations of the alliance’s airspace.
Key Points
- Nato must shoot down Russian jets if necessary - Czech president
- UK flies fighter jets over Poland in warning shot to Putin
- Kremlin accuses Britain of leading Europe's party of war
- Two killed and four injured in Ukrainian attack on Russia's Belgorod region
- 'Russia are testing the doorknobs like a burglar' says David Frum as Russian jets violate Nato airspace
Nato North Atlantic Council to discuss Russian incursion
03:30 , Alex CroftNato's North Atlantic Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss Russia's violation of Estonian airspace, two officials familiar with the matter told Reuters on Sunday, specifying the date that so far has only been described as early next week.
Tallinn said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission on Friday and stayed for a total of 12 minutes before they were forced to withdraw.
Estonia requested consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty after the incident that it described as an "unprecedentedly brazen" incursion.
Article 4 states that Nato members will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territory, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.
Russia's Defence Ministry denied its jets violated Estonian airspace, saying they flew over neutral waters.
With tensions already high because of the war in Ukraine, the incursion came just over a week after more than 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on the night of September 9-10.
That prompted Nato jets to down some of them and Western officials to say Russia was testing the alliance's readiness and resolve.
Russian jets over Estonia ‘ignored signals from NATO pilots’
02:02 , Alex CroftRussian military aircraft violated Estonian airspace on Friday, ignoring signals from Italian jets on NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission, a senior Estonian military official confirmed.
The 12-minute incursion represents the latest test of the alliance's response to Russian airborne threats, following around 20 Russian drones entering Polish airspace on 10 September.
Russia’s Defence Ministry denied the breach, but Tallinn dismissed this, citing radar and visual confirmation. Officials suggested the incident could be a tactic to divert Western resources from Ukraine.
Read more here:
Russian jets over Estonia ‘ignored signals from NATO pilots’
Two killed and four injured in Ukrainian attack on Russia's Belgorod region
00:29 , Alex CroftTwo civilians were killed and four injured in Russia's Belgorod region in Ukrainian attacks, the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on Telegram on Sunday.
We earlier reported Gladkov’s statement that one woman died when a shell hit a private house in the settlement of Shebekino.
In an update, another man was killed in a drone attack on Rakitnoe, he said.
Belgorod region has come under regular attack from Kyiv's forces since Russia ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022.
Kremlin accuses Britain of leading Europe's party of war
23:30 , Alex CroftThe Kremlin was quoted as saying on Sunday that Britain was one of the leaders of the camp which wants to continue the war in Ukraine, Russian state news agency RIA reported.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said that attempts by Western powers to increase the pressure on Russia would not work and would not help attempts to end the war.
Trump says US would come to Poland and Baltic states' defence if Russia attacks
21:58 , Bryony GoochDonald Trump has said the US would come to the defence of Poland and the Baltic states if Russia continued to escalate its attacks.
Speaking to reporters ahead of Charlie Kirk’s funeral, the US president was asked by reporters: “Will you help defend Poland and the Baltic states from Russia if Russia keeps escalating?”
“Yeah, I would,” Trump responded.
It follows increased incursions from Moscow in Nato territory, after Russian drones and fighter jets have entered Estonian, Polish and Romanian air space in recent weeks.
UK flies fighter jets over Poland in warning shot to Putin
21:33 , Alex CroftThe UK has sent fighter jets to Poland in a clear warning shot to Vladimir Putin that Western nations will not tolerate Russia’s repeated incursions into Nato territory.
The RAF Typhoons took part in a Nato operation to bolster European security after Russia provoked global outrage when its jets flew into Estonian airspace on Friday.
Defence secretary John Healey said the use of British fighter planes sent “a clear signal: Nato airspace will be defended”.
Watch: RAF's first aircraft deployed to secure Polish airspace after Russian drone breach
20:29 , Alex CroftVietnam wins Intervision, Russia's Eurovision rival
19:32 , Alex CroftVietnam was crowned the winner of the Russian-hosted Intervision song contest in the early hours of Sunday morning, a competition backed by president Vladimir Putin and conceived as a geopolitical and socially conservative rival to Eurovision.
Putin in February ordered the revival of Intervision, a Soviet-era regional musical contest based on "traditional family values" after Moscow was excluded from the Eurovision Song Contest in 2022 following Putin's decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine.
Kyiv has called the event "an instrument of hostile propaganda".
Shown live on Russian TV and broadcast across parts of Asia, Africa, South America and Europe, Intervision was held at an arena outside Moscow with singers hailing from more than 20 countries accounting for 4 billion people, half the world's population, including China, India and Brazil.
Vietnam's Duc Phuc, whose song was based on a folktale about a king famous for repelling an enemy army, was crowned the strongest act by a jury made up of participating countries.
Russian fighter jet incursions in Estonia and drones in Poland: How the war in Ukraine is already a European conflict
18:34 , Alex CroftDonald Trump has warned that a third Russian incursion into Nato airspace, in which three fighter jet spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, could spell “big trouble” for Moscow.
It is the latest in a series of provocations by the Russian military, which has repeatedly sent drones into Poland and Romania as Moscow argues that Nato is already “fighting against Russia”.
“Nato is providing direct and indirect support to the Kyiv regime,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “It can be said with absolute certainty that Nato is fighting against Russia.”
Read the full report:
How the war in Ukraine has already become a European conflict
NATO articles 4 and 5 explained as North Atlantic Council set to meet in Estonia next weekWhat is Article 4?
17:52 , Alex CroftNATO Article 4 has now been triggered nine times in the past 75 years, two of which have occurred in less than two weeks.
The organisation has called a meeting in Estonia early next week to discuss Russia’s incursion into Estonia’s airspace on Friday. The meeting comes after Estonia requested consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty.
Article 4 states that members of NATO can bring an issue forward for the North Atlantic Council, the organisation’s principal political decision-making body, to consult. The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territory, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.
Since NATO was established in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked nine times, including today’s request. On 10 September, it was triggered by Poland after Polish forces shot down 19 drones over its airspace.
What is Article 5?
Article 5 states that "the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all."
If members decided that Russia had attacked the territory of a member state, then Article 5 would be invoked and members would take the action they deemed necessary.
Article 5 is the cornerstone of the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s founding treaty. When the treaty was created in 1949, its key aim was to counter the Soviet Union if it sought to extend its control of Eastern Europe.
US senators seek sanctions to sink Russia's 'shadow fleet'
17:08 , Alex CroftRepublican and Democratic senators are seeking a bill which would target Russia’s “shadow fleet”.
The "Sanctioning Harbors and Dodgers of Western Sanctions," or SHADOW Fleets Act, would provide a list of indicators the US could use to identify vessels supporting the fleet, making it easier to sanction them sooner.
It would also put in place strict sanctions liability for any ship that engages in a transfer with a sanctioned Russian vessel.
US Senator Jim Risch said: “Putin will use every trick in the book to evade U.S. sanctions, and the U.S. is cracking down on this illicit shadow fleet of ships that he uses to fund his war.
“These ships and the oil sales they facilitate directly threaten American and European security, and will be stopped.”
Watch: Vladimir Putin observes joint military exercise with Belarus
16:30 , Alex CroftUK to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine war effort as world condemns Putin over Estonia incursion
15:50 , Alex CroftFrozen Russian assets could be used to fund billions of pounds worth of Ukraine’s war effort, Rachel Reeves will announce.
The chancellor will say it is the “right to explore all options to support Ukraine”, at a meeting with her European counterparts in Copenhagen on Saturday.
It comes after Russia provoked global outrage when its jets flew into Estonian airspace on Friday.
The Independent’s Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin with the full report:
Zelensky looks to finalize security guarantees at UN General Assembly
15:09 , Alex CroftVolodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine and its partners have laid the groundwork for long-term security guarantees and that he hopes to gauge how close they are to finalizing such commitments during next week's meetings in New York.
He said European nations are prepared to move forward with a framework if the United States remains closely engaged. He noted that discussions have taken place at multiple levels, including among military leadership and general staffs from both Europe and the US.
"I would like to receive signals for myself on how close we are to understanding that the security guarantees from all partners will be the kind we need," Mr Zelensky said.
He said sanctions against Russia must remain on the table if peace efforts stall, and that he plans to press the issue in talks with Trump.
"If the war continues and there is no movement toward peace, we expect sanctions," he said, adding that Trump is looking for strong steps from Europe.
Nato North Atlantic Council to discuss Russian incursion
14:33 , Alex CroftNato's North Atlantic Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss Russia's violation of Estonian airspace, two officials familiar with the matter told Reuters on Sunday, specifying the date that so far has only been described as early next week.
Tallinn said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission on Friday and stayed for a total of 12 minutes before they were forced to withdraw.
Estonia requested consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty after the incident that it described as an "unprecedentedly brazen" incursion.
Article 4 states that Nato members will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territory, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.
Russia's Defence Ministry denied its jets violated Estonian airspace, saying they flew over neutral waters.
With tensions already high because of the war in Ukraine, the incursion came just over a week after more than 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on the night of September 9-10.
That prompted Nato jets to down some of them and Western officials to say Russia was testing the alliance's readiness and resolve.
UN security council to meet over Russian incursion into Estonia
14:05 , Alex CroftThe United Nations Security Council is due to meet on Monday over Estonia's accusation that Russian fighter jets violated its airspace, diplomats said.
Russia's Defence Ministry has denied its jets violated Estonian airspace, saying they flew over neutral waters
Russian jets over Estonia ‘ignored signals from NATO pilots’
13:30 , Alex CroftRussian military aircraft violated Estonian airspace on Friday, ignoring signals from Italian jets on NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission, a senior Estonian military official confirmed.
The 12-minute incursion represents the latest test of the alliance's response to Russian airborne threats, following around 20 Russian drones entering Polish airspace on 10 September.
Russia’s Defence Ministry denied the breach, but Tallinn dismissed this, citing radar and visual confirmation. Officials suggested the incident could be a tactic to divert Western resources from Ukraine.
Read more here:
Russian jets over Estonia ‘ignored signals from NATO pilots’
Nato's borders are being intentionally tested, says Lithuania's defence minister
13:10 , Alex CroftLithuanian Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė said NATO’s borders were being tested for a reason.
In a post on X, she said: “Three russian fighter jets over Tallinn is one more hard proof that #EasternSentry is long due.
“PS. Türkiye set an example 10 years ago. Some food for thought.”
In 2015, a Russian aircraft was shot down by the Turkish air force after it was claimed to have violated its airspace.
Inside Russia’s revamped answer to Eurovision as winner crowned in night of glitter and geopolitics
12:44 , Alex CroftVietnamese singer Duc Phuc has been crowned the inaugural winner of Intervision, a new Russian song contest widely perceived as a political counterpoint to Eurovision.
Phuc triumphed at Moscow’s Live Arena on Saturday night, lifting the crystal cup trophy after a show overflowing with "thundering vocals and pyrotechnics." His winning entry, "Phu Dong Thien Vuong," a dynamic blend of pop, rap, and dubstep, secured him the grand prize of 30 million rubles, beating second-place Kyrgyzstan.
Read more here:
Inside Russia’s answer to Eurovision as winner crowned amid glitter and geopolitics
'Russia are testing the doorknobs like a burglar' says David Frum as Russian jets violate Nato airspace
12:18 , Alex CroftTwo killed and four injured in Ukrainian attack on Russia's Belgorod region
11:48 , Alex CroftTwo civilians were killed and four injured in Russia's Belgorod region in Ukrainian attacks, the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on Telegram on Sunday.
We earlier reported Gladkov’s statement that one woman died when a shell hit a private house in the settlement of Shebekino.
In an update, another man was killed in a drone attack on Rakitnoe, he said.
Belgorod region has come under regular attack from Kyiv's forces since Russia ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022.
Kremlin accuses Britain of leading Europe's party of war
11:16 , Alex CroftThe Kremlin was quoted as saying on Sunday that Britain was one of the leaders of the camp which wants to continue the war in Ukraine, Russian state news agency RIA reported.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said that attempts by Western powers to increase the pressure on Russia would not work and would not help attempts to end the war.
UK flies fighter jets over Poland in warning shot to Putin
10:38 , Alex CroftThe UK has sent fighter jets to Poland in a clear warning shot to Vladimir Putin that Western nations will not tolerate Russia’s repeated incursions into Nato territory.
The RAF Typhoons took part in a Nato operation to bolster European security after Russia provoked global outrage when its jets flew into Estonian airspace on Friday.
Defence secretary John Healey said the use of British fighter planes sent “a clear signal: Nato airspace will be defended”.
Watch: RAF's first aircraft deployed to secure Polish airspace after Russian drone breach
10:01 , Alex CroftVietnam wins Intervision, Russia's Eurovision rival
09:37 , Alex CroftVietnam was crowned the winner of the Russian-hosted Intervision song contest in the early hours of Sunday morning, a competition backed by president Vladimir Putin and conceived as a geopolitical and socially conservative rival to Eurovision.
Putin in February ordered the revival of Intervision, a Soviet-era regional musical contest based on "traditional family values" after Moscow was excluded from the Eurovision Song Contest in 2022 following Putin's decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine.
Kyiv has called the event "an instrument of hostile propaganda".
Shown live on Russian TV and broadcast across parts of Asia, Africa, South America and Europe, Intervision was held at an arena outside Moscow with singers hailing from more than 20 countries accounting for 4 billion people, half the world's population, including China, India and Brazil.
Vietnam's Duc Phuc, whose song was based on a folktale about a king famous for repelling an enemy army, was crowned the strongest act by a jury made up of participating countries.
One woman killed in Ukrainian shelling on Russia, authorities say
09:12 , Alex CroftOne woman was killed in Russia's Belgorod region when a Ukrainian shell hit a house, the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said in a post on Telegram on Sunday.
Belgorod region has come under regular attack from Kyiv's forces since Russia ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022.
Nato must shoot down Russian jets if necessary - Czech president
08:49 , Alex CroftCzech president Petr Pavel has called on Nato forces to take a far stronger stance against Russia’s repeated incursions into the airspace of member states.
Nato forces must be ready to shoot down Russian jets if necessary, he said/
"Russia will realize very quickly that they have made a mistake and crossed the acceptable boundaries,” Mr Pavel said according to the Czech News Agency.
“Unfortunately, this is teetering on the edge of conflict, but giving in to evil is simply not an option.”
Russian fighter jet incursions in Estonia and drones in Poland: How the war in Ukraine is already a European conflict
08:00 , Alex CroftDonald Trump has warned that a third Russian incursion into Nato airspace, in which three fighter jet spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, could spell “big trouble” for Moscow.
It is the latest in a series of provocations by the Russian military, which has repeatedly sent drones into Poland and Romania as Moscow argues that Nato is already “fighting against Russia”.
“Nato is providing direct and indirect support to the Kyiv regime,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “It can be said with absolute certainty that Nato is fighting against Russia.”
Yet as Russia stages incursions into Nato territory and organises major drills with Belarus, experts say that Vladimir Putin is testing Nato’s response through its more aggressive movements past Ukrainian borders.
Read the full report:
How the war in Ukraine has already become a European conflict
NATO articles 4 and 5 explained as North Atlantic Council set to meet in Estonia next week
07:00 , Alex CroftWhat is Article 4?
NATO Article 4 has now been triggered nine times in the past 75 years, two of which have occurred in less than two weeks.
The organisation has called a meeting in Estonia early next week to discuss Russia’s incursion into Estonia’s airspace on Friday. The meeting comes after Estonia requested consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty.
Article 4 states that members of NATO can bring an issue forward for the North Atlantic Council, the organisation’s principal political decision-making body, to consult. The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territory, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.
Since NATO was established in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked nine times, including today’s request. On 10 September, it was triggered by Poland after Polish forces shot down 19 drones over its airspace.
What is Article 5?
Article 5 states that "the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all."
If members decided that Russia had attacked the territory of a member state, then Article 5 would be invoked and members would take the action they deemed necessary.
Article 5 is the cornerstone of the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s founding treaty. When the treaty was created in 1949, its key aim was to counter the Soviet Union if it sought to extend its control of Eastern Europe.
US senators seek sanctions to sink Russia's 'shadow fleet'
06:02 , Alex CroftRepublican and Democratic senators are seeking a bill which would target Russia’s “shadow fleet”.
The "Sanctioning Harbors and Dodgers of Western Sanctions," or SHADOW Fleets Act, would provide a list of indicators the US could use to identify vessels supporting the fleet, making it easier to sanction them sooner.
It would also put in place strict sanctions liability for any ship that engages in a transfer with a sanctioned Russian vessel.
US Senator Jim Risch said: “Putin will use every trick in the book to evade U.S. sanctions, and the U.S. is cracking down on this illicit shadow fleet of ships that he uses to fund his war.
“These ships and the oil sales they facilitate directly threaten American and European security, and will be stopped.”
Watch: Powerful magnitude-7.8 earthquake shakes Russia as Tsunami warning issued
05:01 , Alex CroftZelensky looks to finalize security guarantees at UN General Assembly
04:03 , Alex CroftVolodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine and its partners have laid the groundwork for long-term security guarantees and that he hopes to gauge how close they are to finalizing such commitments during next week's meetings in New York.
He said European nations are prepared to move forward with a framework if the United States remains closely engaged. He noted that discussions have taken place at multiple levels, including among military leadership and general staffs from both Europe and the US.
"I would like to receive signals for myself on how close we are to understanding that the security guarantees from all partners will be the kind we need," Mr Zelensky said.
He said sanctions against Russia must remain on the table if peace efforts stall, and that he plans to press the issue in talks with Trump.
"If the war continues and there is no movement toward peace, we expect sanctions," he said, adding that Trump is looking for strong steps from Europe.
What have UK leaders said about Russia's incursion into Estonian airspace?
03:01 , Alex CroftUK officials have joined leaders across Europe in condemning Russia’s incursion into Nato airspace on Friday night.
Defence Secretary John Healey said: “This is yet another edition of the Putin playbook.
“Putin’s aggression only serves to strengthen the unity of NATO and our resolve to stand with Ukraine.”
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the UK was standing in solidarity with its Estonian allies, calling the incursion “reckless”
“We must continue to increase pressure on Putin, including driving forward the important new economic sanctions announced by the UK & EU in recent days,” she said.
Russia launches deadly large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine
01:29 , Alex CroftA large-scale Russian missile and drone attack struck multiple regions across Ukraine early on Saturday, killing at least three people and wounding dozens, Ukrainian officials confirmed.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the assaults impacted nine regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Kharkiv.
“The enemy’s target was our infrastructure, residential areas and civilian enterprises,” he said, adding that a missile equipped with cluster munitions struck a multi-story building in the city of Dnipro.
Full report here:
Russia launches deadly large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine
Watch: 'Russia are testing the doorknobs like a burglar' says David Frum as Russian jets violate Nato airspace
Sunday 21 September 2025 00:01 , Alex CroftUK flies fighter jets over Poland in warning shot to Putin
Saturday 20 September 2025 23:24 , Daniel KeaneThe UK has sent fighter jets to Poland in a clear warning shot to Vladimir Putin that Western nations will not tolerate Russia’s repeated incursions into Nato territory.
The RAF Typhoons took part in a Nato operation to bolster European security after Russia provoked global outrage when its jets flew into Estonian airspace on Friday.
Defence secretary John Healey said the use of British fighter planes sent “a clear signal: Nato airspace will be defended”.
Read our full story here.
Zelensky says Donetsk counteroffensive inflicting 'heavy losses' on Russia
Saturday 20 September 2025 23:00 , Alex CroftVolodymyr Zelensky has said Ukrainian forces are inflicting “heavy losses” on the Russian military in a counteroffensive in the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukrainian troops pressed on with a frontline counteroffensive around the two cities of Pokrovsk and Dobropillia in the east of the country on Friday.
Russia said its forces had captured two new villages in their slow advance through Ukraine's east and south, but its Defence Ministry made no reference to the Ukrainian counter.
In his nightly video address, Mr Zelensky said the counteroffensive had disrupted Russian plans in their longstanding objective of seizing the key tactical city of Pokrovsk, which is a critical part of Ukraine’s supply line to the frontline. .
"It was there that one of the most important directions of the Russian offensive was located, and they were unable to launch a full-fledged offensive there. Our military is destroying their forces," Mr Zelensky said.
Our counteroffensive operation in the Donetsk Region—Pokrovsk and Dobropillia sectors—continues. It was one of the most important axes for the Russians, but they failed to mount a full-scale offensive here. Our army is destroying their forces—inflicting heavy losses, taking POWs. pic.twitter.com/JPbdWhQMNj
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 19, 2025
Italian fighter jets responded to Estonia incursion
Saturday 20 September 2025 22:03 , Alex CroftItalian Air Force F-35 fighter jets, currently deployed as part of the Nato Baltic Air Policing Mission, responded to Russia’s violation of Estonian airspace, according to the statement.
The Russian MIG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace in the area of Vaindloo Island, which is a small island located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, the Estonian military said in a separate statement.
Nato's borders are being intentionally tested, says Lithuania's defence minister
Saturday 20 September 2025 21:00 , Alex CroftLithuanian Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė said NATO’s borders were being tested for a reason.
In a post on X, she said: “Three russian fighter jets over Tallinn is one more hard proof that #EasternSentry is long due.
“PS. Türkiye set an example 10 years ago. Some food for thought.”
In 2015, a Russian aircraft was shot down by the Turkish air force after it was claimed to have violated its airspace.
Russia threatening Finland with Ukraine playbook, says thinktank
Saturday 20 September 2025 20:01 , Alex CroftRussia's alleged violation of Estonian airspace comes just days after a think tank warned Moscow was threatening another Nato neighbour, Finland, using the same "playbook" as it used in Ukraine.
"High-ranking Kremlin officials have increased threats against Finland in recent weeks, including by using language that mirrors the Kremlin's false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine," the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in an analysis published on Thursday.
"ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine."
'Putin is testing the West's resolve'
Saturday 20 September 2025 18:59 , Alex CroftEurope's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the "violation of Estonia's airspace by Russian military aircraft is an extremely dangerous provocation".
She added that the EU "stands in full solidarity with Estonia", and said: "We will continue to support our member states in strengthening their defences with European resources.”
"Putin is testing the West's resolve. We must not show weakness."
UK and US 'working together' to end wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Starmer says - ICYMI
Saturday 20 September 2025 18:18 , Alex CroftUkraine targets Russia's oil sector in overnight attack
Saturday 20 September 2025 17:39 , Alex CroftUkrainian drones overnight slammed into an energy facility in Samara, southwestern Russia, according to the local governor and Ukraine's General Staff.
Ukraine on Saturday claimed its drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery, a major producer of jet fuel that is operated by Russian oil major Rosneft. It said the strike resulted in explosions and a fire, Reuters are reporting.
Samara's regional governor, Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, said unspecified fuel and energy facilities were targeted. He later reported that four people had died in the attack.
Ukraine's General Staff also said a second Russian oil refinery was hit overnight, in the Saratov region directly south of Samara. A representative of Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya, said flights were briefly grounded overnight at Saratov and Samara airports, among other regional flight hubs.
Russia's Defense Ministry on Saturday said the military intercepted 149 Ukrainian drones overnight.
Zelensky looks to finalize security guarantees at UN General Assembly
Saturday 20 September 2025 17:01 , Alex CroftVolodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine and its partners have laid the groundwork for long-term security guarantees and that he hopes to gauge how close they are to finalizing such commitments during next week's meetings in New York.
He said European nations are prepared to move forward with a framework if the United States remains closely engaged. He noted that discussions have taken place at multiple levels, including among military leadership and general staffs from both Europe and the US.
"I would like to receive signals for myself on how close we are to understanding that the security guarantees from all partners will be the kind we need," Mr Zelensky said.
He said sanctions against Russia must remain on the table if peace efforts stall, and that he plans to press the issue in talks with Trump.
"If the war continues and there is no movement toward peace, we expect sanctions," he said, adding that Trump is looking for strong steps from Europe.
UK to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine war effort as world condemns Putin over Estonia incursion
Saturday 20 September 2025 16:30 , Alex CroftFrozen Russian assets could be used to fund billions of pounds worth of Ukraine’s war effort, Rachel Reeves will announce.
The chancellor will say it is the “right to explore all options to support Ukraine”, at a meeting with her European counterparts in Copenhagen on Saturday.
It comes after Russia provoked global outrage when its jets flew into Estonian airspace on Friday.
The Independent’s Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin with the full report:
UK to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine as world condemns Putin over Estonia
More on Russia's overnight air attack
Saturday 20 September 2025 15:57 , Alex CroftWe’re getting more detail through on Russia’s huge overnight air attack on Ukraine overnight.
At least 30 people were wounded in the attack in Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region, local governor Serhii Lysak said. Several high-rise buildings and homes were damaged in the eastern city of Dnipro.
In the Kyiv region, local authorities said there were strikes in the areas of Bucha, Boryspil and Obukhiv. A home and cars were damaged. In the western region of Lviv, Gov. Maxim Kozytsky said two cruise missiles were shot down.
Russia launched 619 drones and missiles, Ukraine's Air Force said this morning, including 579 drones, eight ballistic missiles and 32 cruise missiles were detected. Ukrainian forces shot down and neutralized 552 drones, two ballistic missiles and 29 cruise missiles.
"During the air strike, tactical aviation, in particular F-16 fighters, effectively worked on the enemy's cruise missiles. Western weapons once again prove their effectiveness on the battlefield," the Air Force said in a statement.
Polish and allied aircraft scrambled again overnight
Saturday 20 September 2025 15:25 , Alex CroftPoland's Operational Command on Saturday said Polish and allied aircraft were deployed again overnight, due to Russian long-range airstrikes in neighboring Ukraine.
"Polish and allied aircraft are operating in our airspace, while ground-based air defence and radar reconnaissance systems have been brought to the highest state of readiness," the operational command said in a post on X.
At 5:40am local time (4:40am UK time), nearly all of Ukraine was under air raid alerts following Ukrainian Air Force warnings of Russian missile and drone attacks.
Shortly after 5am, Polish and allied air forces ended the operation as airstrikes by the Russian Federation against Ukraine were ceased, the Polish command said, adding that the actions were "preventative and aimed at securing airspace in areas adjacent to the threatened area".
In a post on X later, the operational command described the operation as "preventive," and "aimed at securing the airspace in areas adjacent to the threatened zone."
Polish jets have been deployed repeatedly in recent months to patrol the country's airspace in connection with Russian attacks on Ukraine.
Last week, fellow Nato member Romania said it deployed two F-16 jets to intercept a drone that briefly entered its airspace.
Watch: Powerful magnitude-7.8 earthquake shakes Russia as Tsunami warning issued
Saturday 20 September 2025 14:52 , Alex CroftUS senators seek sanctions to sink Russia's 'shadow fleet'
Saturday 20 September 2025 14:20 , Alex CroftRepublican and Democratic senators are seeking a bill which would target Russia’s “shadow fleet”.
The "Sanctioning Harbors and Dodgers of Western Sanctions," or SHADOW Fleets Act, would provide a list of indicators the US could use to identify vessels supporting the fleet, making it easier to sanction them sooner.
It would also put in place strict sanctions liability for any ship that engages in a transfer with a sanctioned Russian vessel.
US Senator Jim Risch said: “Putin will use every trick in the book to evade U.S. sanctions, and the U.S. is cracking down on this illicit shadow fleet of ships that he uses to fund his war.
“These ships and the oil sales they facilitate directly threaten American and European security, and will be stopped.”
What have UK leaders said about Russia's incursion into Estonian airspace?
Saturday 20 September 2025 13:53 , Alex CroftUK officials have joined leaders across Europe in condemning Russia’s incursion into NATO airspace today.
Defence Secretary John Healey said: “This is yet another edition of the Putin playbook.
“Putin’s aggression only serves to strengthen the unity of NATO and our resolve to stand with Ukraine.”
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the UK was standing in solidarity with its Estonian allies, calling the incursion “reckless”
“We must continue to increase pressure on Putin, including driving forward the important new economic sanctions announced by the UK & EU in recent days,” she said.
Russia launches deadly large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine
Saturday 20 September 2025 13:30 , Alex CroftA large-scale Russian missile and drone attack struck multiple regions across Ukraine early on Saturday, killing at least three people and wounding dozens, Ukrainian officials confirmed.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the assaults impacted nine regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Kharkiv.
“The enemy’s target was our infrastructure, residential areas and civilian enterprises,” he said, adding that a missile equipped with cluster munitions struck a multi-story building in the city of Dnipro.
Read more on Russia’s latest deadly air attack on Ukraine:
Russia launches deadly large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine
Watch: 'Russia are testing the doorknobs like a burglar' says David Frum as Russian jets violate Nato airspace
Saturday 20 September 2025 13:02 , Alex CroftUK spy boss warns Putin is ‘stringing us along’ in stark outgoing speech
Saturday 20 September 2025 12:35 , Alex CroftBritain's top spy has delivered a stark warning that Vladimir Putin harbours "absolutely no evidence" of a genuine desire to negotiate a peace deal for Ukraine, accusing the Russian leader of "stringing us along".
Sir Richard Moore, the head of MI6, who will step down in September after five years, made the comments in an outgoing speech. He noted that despite months of US-led talks and Donald Trump’s ultimatums, a truce appears no closer.
Speaking at the British consulate in Istanbul on Friday, Sir Richard reiterated there was "absolutely no evidence" the Russian leader wants to settle the conflict. Instead, he suggested Mr Putin seeks to "impose his imperial will by all means at his disposal".
“But he cannot succeed,” Sir Richard said.
Read the full report:
UK spy boss warns Putin is ‘stringing us along’ in stark outgoing speech
Zelensky to meet Trump at next week's UN General Assembly
Saturday 20 September 2025 12:11 , Alex CroftVolodymyr Zelensky has said he will meet US counterpart Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week in comments made to reporters.
The Ukrainian president will hold "a meeting with the President of the United States" in which he will discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, he said.
Mr Zelensky and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov are due to address the General Assembly. Russian president Vladimir Putin does not traditionally attend the annual UN gathering.
Zelensky says Donetsk counteroffensive inflicting 'heavy losses' on Russia
Saturday 20 September 2025 11:45 , Alex CroftVolodymyr Zelensky has said Ukrainian forces are inflicting “heavy losses” on the Russian military in a counteroffensive in the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukrainian troops pressed on with a frontline counteroffensive around the two cities of Pokrovsk and Dobropillia in the east of the country on Friday.
Russia said its forces had captured two new villages in their slow advance through Ukraine's east and south, but its Defence Ministry made no reference to the Ukrainian counter.
In his nightly video address, Mr Zelensky said the counteroffensive had disrupted Russian plans in their longstanding objective of seizing the key tactical city of Pokrovsk, which is a critical part of Ukraine’s supply line to the frontline. .
"It was there that one of the most important directions of the Russian offensive was located, and they were unable to launch a full-fledged offensive there. Our military is destroying their forces," Mr Zelensky said.
Our counteroffensive operation in the Donetsk Region—Pokrovsk and Dobropillia sectors—continues. It was one of the most important axes for the Russians, but they failed to mount a full-scale offensive here. Our army is destroying their forces—inflicting heavy losses, taking POWs. pic.twitter.com/JPbdWhQMNj
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 19, 2025
Russia attacked 9 Ukrainian regions, says Zelensky
Saturday 20 September 2025 11:21 , Alex CroftUkrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russia’s huge overnight drone attack attacks took place across nine regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy and Kharkiv.
The Russian military fired more than 600 drones and missiles into Ukrainian territory overnight, Kyiv’s air force said.
"The enemy's target was our infrastructure, residential areas and civilian enterprises," Mr Zelensky said, adding that a missile equipped with cluster munitions struck a multi-story building in the city of Dnipro.
"Each such strike is not a military necessity but a deliberate strategy by Russia to intimidate civilians and destroy our infrastructure," he added.
Russian fighter jet incursions in Estonia and drones in Poland: How the war in Ukraine is already a European conflict
Saturday 20 September 2025 10:50 , Alex CroftDonald Trump has warned that a third Russian incursion into Nato airspace, in which three fighter jet spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, could spell “big trouble” for Moscow.
It is the latest in a series of provocations by the Russian military, which has repeatedly sent drones into Poland and Romania as Moscow argues that Nato is already “fighting against Russia”.
“Nato is providing direct and indirect support to the Kyiv regime,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “It can be said with absolute certainty that Nato is fighting against Russia.”
Yet as Russia stages incursions into Nato territory and organises major drills with Belarus, experts say that Vladimir Putin is testing Nato’s response through its more aggressive movements past Ukrainian borders.
How the war in Ukraine has already become a European conflict
