Get all your news in one place.
100's of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Wales Online
Wales Online
Simon Neville, PA & Brett Gibbons

Ukraine crisis will impact costs of fuel, bread, food and grain products in UK

The Government said it will offer support as required if the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia leads to a surge in global food prices.

Economists are warning inflation will rise well beyond current predictions with cost of essential commodities such as fuel, bread, oils and grain products set to surge.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said if the jumps in oil, gas and electricity products on Thursday are sustained, it could push inflation to 8.2 per cent in April, only falling back to 6.5 per cent by the end of the year.

Inflation hit 5.5 per cent in January and the Bank of England believes it will peak at more than seven per cent in April when huge 50 per cent increases in domestic energy bills when the new price cap hits.

Mr Tombs said: "Today's surge in oil, natural gas and electricity prices, if sustained, points to an extra 1.5pp boost to the UK CPI. Inflation now likely to peak at circa 8.2 per cent in April and only come down to 6.5 per cent by the end of the year."

Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM UK added: "Looking beyond the immediate humanitarian impact, the effect on the UK economy will depend on what happens next and how long commodity prices remain elevated for.

"But inflation in the UK will now probably rise beyond the 7.5 per cent peak we had expected in April and will remain higher for longer."

Russia invasion of Ukraine is bound to impact at the petrol pumps (PA)


The price of oil hit above 100 dollars a barrel on Thursday for the first time since 2014.

Mr Tombs added that Russia and Ukraine also export a quarter of the world's wheat, with Ukraine a major corn exporter and massive grower of sunflowers which are used for food oils.

Global wheat prices had already been rising prior to the invasion and are are up nearly 40 per cent this year, hitting levels not seen since 2013.

Availability of commodities produced and exported from Ukraine and Russia may be interrupted by conflict. Prices could rise as associated costs, such as shipping insurance, increase.

Conservative former minister Robert Halfon urged the Government to make a statement on the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the cost of living.

He told the Commons: "Oil prices following the Russian invasion have gone up to over 100 dollars a barrel. Energy prices are rocketing. This is going to impact millions of people across the country and make petrol and energy even more unaffordable."

For more stories from where you live, visit InYourArea.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100's of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.