Unlike some of his more aloof predecessors, the latest autocrat running Russia doesn’t mind subjecting himself to lengthy media questioning, if only once a year, as a kind of pre-Christmas treat for himself.
Vladimir Putin enjoys delivering rambling lectures as much as his American counterpart, though the Russian president’s aren’t quite so angry and possess more of a scholarly veneer, fake as it is. His latest marathon press conference does, however, serve to confirm that this is a leader who is determined to achieve his maximalist strategy in Ukraine by whatever means suit him best at any given point.
These include multi-spoked diplomacy to divide the EU (Hungary being the weapon of choice), peeling America out of Nato, military activity on the battleground, espionage and disinformation abroad, and, of course, bombing and freezing Ukrainian civilians to death. He can also tap up powerful allies in China, India and Iran for financial support, dual-purpose technology, weaponry and even manpower to support his crude “meatgrinder” method of war.
At this moment, President Putin is content to maintain an involved but uncompromising stance in the peace talks, while simultaneously pressing on with his slow advances on the ground, and the indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure, be it power plants or kindergartens. If his friends in the US administration – including Donald Trump himself – manage to pressure Volodymyr Zelensky into surrendering territory that Russia hasn’t been able to capture in the fighting, and to disarm Ukraine, then so much the better. Russia can then regroup while America relaxes its economic sanctions, and prepare for the next invasion.
If not, and the war drags on, then Putin won’t mind either the human cost – more than one million Russian casualties so far – or the stress to the Russian economy. His goal of occupying Ukraine, extinguishing its national identity, and integrating it into his empire makes any sacrifice made by his people worthwhile. It would cement his regime in permanent power – and, in his review, consolidate Russia’s superpower status – and would command the respect of his enemies at home and abroad. He likes to be feared – another thing he shares with Mr Trump.
Unlike Mr Trump, though, Russia’s leader is normally calm in demeanour, and, as it suits him to at the moment, gives the impression that he is relaxed about the glacially slow progress of his “special military operation”. He also seems rather pleased about the disarray in Europe in recent days. He derides European leaders as “piglets”, and as “burglars” attempting to steal the $200bn (£150bn) of Russian financial assets that have been frozen in the European clearing system since his unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Sadly for Europe, the EU leaders are far from a ruthless, well-organised gang of jewel thieves. Instead, they resemble a squabbling band of amateurs, with some members under suspicion of wanting to help the Kremlin rather than frustrate it, and openly obstructing the attempt to make Russia pay for its aggression.
In the end, the Europeans stumped up an interest-free loan of €90bn (£79bn) for Ukraine. This, it is claimed, will keep the Kyiv government running for a year or two. The unspoken assumption is that, by 2027, when the war will be in its sixth year, the Russians will be so exhausted, and their economy and war machine struggling to such an extent, that Moscow will be forced to sue for peace. At that point, a fairer settlement can be achieved – and with it, the return of most of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and independence.
Perhaps. But there are pressures on Ukraine, too, such as running out of soldiers. It is also beyond doubt that Russia’s friends will continue to support the Kremlin, and even possible that the US will rapidly relax its sanctions and allow Russia to rejoin the world economy, so that Mr Trump can pursue lucrative real estate and other deals.
Europe, in other words, has once again given Ukraine “just enough”. Just enough, that is, to keep Ukraine going and avoid it being overrun by the Russians – but not enough for its military to achieve decisive victories and push the enemy back, as it has managed to do before.
European allies are twitchy about the Ukrainians’ use of long-range weaponry to hit deep inside Russia and elsewhere, such as the successful strikes on Russia’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. Some fear a nuclear conflagration, though Russia has done no more than make idle threats about that.
In other words, Europe seems unduly and perversely nervous about giving Ukraine what it needs to actually force the Russians to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, some European nations are still buying Russian gas.
Contrary to President Trump’s wishful thinking, this war is unlikely to be over by Christmas. The cruelties and the attrition will continue into the spring and the summer, and in a year, the battle lines will be more or less where they are now. Europe, divided and unwilling to spend more money on its defence, seems set to be not much more resolute than it was in the early days, when Berlin wanted to limit its military assistance to some new helmets for the Ukrainian troops.
Such a dismal situation may be inevitable, given the differences between European governments and their complacent electorates – but it is not sustainable. Ukraine cannot continue to survive on starvation rations from Brussels.
Europe, including Britain, therefore needs to decide whether it actually wants to defeat Russia. The opportunity to do so is still there, and, with Ukraine as an ally, victory would turn Europe into a fortress against a revanchist Russia.
If not, then everything that has been done thus far, all the lives lost and the money spent, will have been in vain. Ukraine will cease to exist. Europe, humiliated, will be left at President Putin’s mercy, fretting about where he will act next: Estonia? Moldova? Finland? Poland?
An enlarged, emboldened and stronger Russia will menace Europe for decades to come, Europeans will have only themselves to blame, and this time the Americans won’t rescue them. But it doesn’t have to be this way.
