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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Ukip wins Clacton with 12,404 majority, and almost snatches Heywood from Labour: Politics live blog

Empty baskets with name signs of candidates for the Clacton byelection at the counting centre at the Town Hall in Clacton
Empty baskets with name signs of candidates for the Clacton byelection at the counting centre at the Town Hall in Clacton Photograph: Stefan Wermuth/Reuters

Summary

A remarkable byelection result often produces a headache for one of the two main political parties. As Nigel Farage goes to bed tonight, he will be taking satisfaction from the fact that he has managed to alarm them both. David Cameron will wake up on the morning after his birthday to ponder what to say about a byelection which saw the Conservative share of the vote fall by almost 30 percentage points. But he has been predicting this for weeks, and it will not come as a shock. For Ed Miliband, the slender scale of his victory in Heywood and Middleton will come as a shock. Some newspapers have already been talking up a putative Labour leadership crisis this week, and you should expect to hear a lot more of this over the next 48 hours.

There will be a lot more analysis tomorrow - or, rather, later today. I’ll be writing a reaction blog in the morning.

Meanwhile, let’s finish on the two key points.

  • Douglas Carswell has become the first person to be elected as a Ukip MP, holding his seat with almost 60% of the vote and causing the Conservative vote to tumble.
  • Labour has only narrowly held Heywood and Middleton, where Ukip forced a recount and lost by only 617 votes. One Labour MP, John Mann, has already said the result shows why Miliband must change course.

That’s all from me.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Clacton result - Full details

Here are the Clacton results in full.

Douglas Carswell (UKIP) 21,113 (59.75%)
Giles Watling (C) 8,709 (24.64%, -28.38%)
Tim Young (Lab) 3,957 (11.20%, -13.84%)
Chris Southall (Green) 688 (1.95%, +0.71%)
Andy Graham (LD) 483 (1.37%, -11.57%)
Bruce Sizer (Ind) 205 (0.58%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 127 (0.36%)
Charlotte Rose (Ind) 56 (0.16%)

UKIP maj 12,404 (35.10%)

Electorate 69,118; Turnout 35,338 (51.13%, -13.05%)

Douglas Carswell's acceptance speech

Douglas Carswell is speaking now.

He thanks the other candidates. It is a good thing to stand for pubic office, he says.

He tells the electors of Clacton that they are his boss.

And he has a message for his new party, he says. The should show “humility when we win,” and “modesty when we are proved right”.

If we speak with passion, let it always be tempered by compassion.

He says Ukip must speak for all Britons, includiong firirst and second generation immigrants, he says.

And he says Ukip will go on to fight in Rochester, where Mark Reckless is also fighting a byelction.

He says voters will reject “negative campaigns by old party machines”.

Reckless did the right thing, Carswell says. He is an honourable man. Carswell says he rejects the “smears of the Westminster machine” directed at Reckless.

He quotes Abraham Lincoln’s phrase in the Gettysburg Address: “government of the people, by the people, for the people”. Those words were not Lincoln’s words originally, he says. They were the words of an Englishman, John Wycliffe, translator of the Bible.

In the future people who hoard power, whether in banking or in Brussels, will feel the power of those words every more powerfully, he says.

Crony corporatism is not the free market. There must be change.

Ian Davidson, the acting returning officer, is reading out the results.

Douglas Carswell has won, with 21,113 votes, beating the Conservatives on 8,709.

At Clacton the candidates are gathering on the stage.

Paul Nuttall, the Ukip deputy leader, says an “electoral storm cloud” is gathering over Westminster.

There are now suggestions the Ukip majority could be as high as 13,000 in Clacton.

At the election Douglas Carswell had a majority of 12,068.

Candidates and agents are being summoned to see the acting returning officer at Clacton.That means the provisional results are ready.

4 reasons why Ukip's result in Heywood is so remarkable

Here are some facts about the Ukip result in Heywood and Middleton which explain why it is such a good result for the party.

  • It’s Ukip’s highest share of the vote in a byelection - and the first time it has been over 30%.
  • It’s Ukip’s largest percentage point increase in a byelection - and the first time the percentage point increase has been over 30 percentage points.
  • It is the closest Ukip has come to winning a byelection - and the first time it has been less than 1,000 votes short.
  • It’s Ukip’s fifth successive second place in a byelection in a row - or seventh if you include the night when it came second in two byelections, and third in one.

Obviously, when we get the Clacton result in a few minutes, these records will change.

Here’s Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, on the result in Heywood and Middleton.

We are ripping lumps out of the old Labour vote in the north of England. The truth of what has happened in the North today is that if you are anywhere north of Birmingham , if you vote Conservative you get Labour.

And the reason we haven’t won up there, despite a fantastic campaign, is that too many people have stuck with the Conservatives, not recognising that Ukip is now the challenger to Labour in every urban seat in the north of England.

In Heywood and Middleton Jennifer Williams has more on Labour reaction to the party’s very narrow victory.

We should get the result in Clacton by 2.30am, the parties have been told.

John Mann says Labour must change course in light of threat from Ukip

Tonight’s results will result in a backlash against the leadership in both main parties. We’ve already seen Lord Ashcroft take a pop at David Cameron. John Mann is not normally seen as Labour’s answer to Lord Ashcroft, but he is playing the same role on Twitter.

I didn’t hear the acceptance speech from the new Labour MP for Heywood and Middleton, Liz McInnes, but on Twitter she’s getting some stick.

Michael Crick says the Lib Dems had something to celebrate in Heywood and Middleton.

Heywood and Middleton result - Full details

Here are the Heywood and Middleton results in full.

Liz McInnes (Lab) 11,633 (40.86%, +0.75%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11,016 (38.69%, +36.06%)
Iain Gartside (C) 3,496 (12.28%, -14.88%)
Anthony Smith (LD) 1,457 (5.12%, -17.59%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 (3.06%)

Lab maj 617 (2.17%)

17.65% swing Lab to UKIP

Electorate 79,170; Turnout 28,472 (35.96%, -21.57%)

Here are the results from Heywood and Middleton.

And here is some comment on the figures.

(I’m sorry I was not quicker with these. There’s no TV where I’m working, and the wifi is operating at snail’s pace.)

Labour wins Heywood and Middleton

Labour has won in Heywood and Middleton.

Douglas Carswell is at the Clacton count giving a TV interview. He explained why people were turning to Ukip.

People feel that the government is not on their side. They feel that politics is dominated by an out-of-touch Westminster establishment which simply is not very good at politics.

He also said that the 2010 Conservative party manifesto was a “brilliant document” but that it had not been implemented. And Steve Hilton, one of its authors, had himself walked away, Carswell true. (That’s true in the sense that Hilton left Number 10 to go to lecture in California, although, as far as we know, he has not joined Ukip.)

He also attacked the whipping system in the Commons.

The system of politics, which is dominated by whips, where people are expected to toe the line and toady up to ministers to get promotion - this is what is wrong with our politics.

Paul Nuttall, Ukip’s deputy leader, says Ukip is now the official opposition to Labour in the north.

Ashcroft says Cameron largely to blame for rise of Ukip

The anti-Cameron backlash in the Conservative party has begun.

Updated

The recount has been granted in Heywood and Middleton.

Ukip sources are saying that they have asked for a recount in Heywood and Middleton, where Labour are only ahead by around 600 votes.

Updated

It looks like I’m in the wrong place. If Sky’s Jon Craig is correct, all the drama is in Heywood and Middleton.

Assuming the figures we are getting from Labour sources for Clacton are correct -and it is only an assumption; they have not been backed up by other parties - Ukip is heading for a majority of around 12,000.

You would expect the rough totals to be:

Ukip - 20,900

Conservatives - 8,800

Labour - 4,200

I’ve taken the 25% figure for the Tories, and the 59% figure for Ukip, to be conservative, and rounded the figures up or down to the nearest 100.

Turnout in Clacton is 51.2%

Ian Davidson, the acting returning officer, has just confirmed the turnout in Clacton was 51.2%

There are 69,118 people registered to vote in Clacton.

Ian Davidson, the acting returning officer, has just announced that 35,386 ballot papers have been verified.

By my count, that’s a turnout of 51%.

Sky’s Jon Craig has some provisional numbers from Heywood and Middleton.

Ukip on course to win Clacton by more than 30% points, say Labour

According to a Labour source, the turnout in Clacton is just over 50%. Ukip are on 59/60%, the Tories are on 23/24/25%, Labour on around 12%, and the Lib Dems well below 5%.

And Labour reckon the Tories are on about 20% of the vote in Claction, Labour say. That would mean a fall of 33 percentage points (because they were on 53% in 2010.)

Lib Dem set to lose their deposit in Clacton, Labour say

The Lib Dems seem to have lost their deposit in Clacton, Labour are saying.

That mean they are on less than 5%. In 2010 they were on 12.9%.

“On a swing like this [in Heywood and Middleton], we would win all 14 marginals in the north west,” a Labour source says.

Douglas Carswell has arrived at the Clacton count.

And in Heywood and Middleton the Conservative share of the vote is just over 10%, Labour sources are saying. In 2010 it was 27.2%.

Labour say they've won Heywood

Labour sources are now privately declaring victory in Heywood.

And they also they expect their vote share to be up on 2010 (when it was 40.1%) and up on the 2014 locals.

Turnout in Heywood and Middleton is 36%

We’ve got a turnout figure for Heywood and Middleton.

My colleague Tom Clark makes this observation on the figure.

My colleague Helen Pidd is covering the Heywood and Middleton count. She’s sent me this.

The battle for Heywood and Middleton has not been all sweetness and light. Police were called to a polling station in Middleton today after a scuffle between a Ukip teller and some Labour supporters, according to Ukip.

A Ukip source said the skirmish at the Jumbo Social Centre began when one of their members, who had been stationed outside to take a note of voters’ polling numbers, told a Labour councillor and two supporters that they couldn’t park their car so near to the polling station. He allegedly told them that they were breaking election rules because the car had Labour posters in it (there are strict rules about what parties can and can’t do near polling stations).

An argument ensued and according to the Ukip source, a female Labour councillor grabbed the Ukipper’s phone, which ended up being smashed. He called his party campaign office and asked to be moved to a different polling station because he felt “intimidated”. Party officials called the police “because for us, that goes against every facet of democracy”. Greater Manchester Police officers attended, but the Ukipper decided not to pursue the matter. The Ukip source said: “Labour really doesn’t like the fact they’ve actually had to fight this byelection. They are used to not having to contest it, so when they saw Ukip tellers standing outside every polling station today they weren’t happy about it.”

A Labour press officer said she would investigate.

A Ukip source tells me he thinks that Peter Kellner’s 10,000 majority prediction for Clacton is “over-egging it”, but that he agrees with the Tories about turnout being in the 45/50% range. Amongst the postal votes, turnout was even higher, he says. He claims that, of the 9,000 postal votes sent out, some 7,000 were returned.

A high turnout would be good for us. This has been exciting. People have enjoyed the byelection. People recognise that this is something special and that they are the focus of the country. They are quite enjoying it. There are even people who have been canvassed four times and who are saying they are not bored of this.

He’s more cautious about Heywood than some of his Ukip colleagues (see 11.07pm), saying that he thinks anything over 25% will be a good result for Ukip, but he says that he thinks the Heywood polls (which had Ukip on 31% and 28% respectively) understated Ukip’s support.

We also think Labour thought the same too, because of the huge effort they have made. You would not have had shadow cabinet ministers knocking on doors last night if they thought they would win easily.

Douglas Carswell in his own words

And, while we’re on the subject of Douglas Carswell (see 11.02pm), it is worth pointing out that he is far more interesting than most byelection candidates. He was one of the few MPs who could genuinely be described as a radical thinker. Quite how he ended up in the Conservative party remains something of a mystery, because essentially he is an arch-libertarian with contempt for big government, a passion for direct, local democracy and an acute interest in the empowering potential of technology. His book, The End of Politics, is one of the boldest books around about how the internet could transform politics. And The Plan, a localism manifesto he wrote with the Tory MEP Daniel Hannan before the 2010 election, is another surprising read. Their call for elected police commissioners (or sheriffs, as they called them) has been adopted by David Cameron, but hasn’t proved a great success, and their proposal for moving the NHS towards an insurance model would be regarded by most as electoral suicide, but it’s an ambitious, confident book that is worth reading if you despair of bland politics.

Here are a few quotes that give a flavour of Carswell’s thinking. They are all from The End of Politics, except the one about the Levellers and the Chartists, which is from The Plan.

Carswell the anarchist

The digital age is favourable to the idea of spontaneous and organic design. Collectivism without the state – the dream of every anarchist in history – begins to seem possible, practical and mainstream.

Carswell the Roundhead

Politicians might today be seen as expropriators for more government. But the parliaments and legislatures in which they sit came into being in the first place to ensure the precise opposite: to prevent monarchs or ministers from levying taxes without the consent of the people.

Representative government was designed to keep government small.

Carswell the anti-elitist

The internet pulverises monopolies and smashes hierarchy – not just in the world of busines and commerce, but in public life too. The elite – pundits, officials, experts, scientists – who have exercised such a grip over the body politic of Western states for so long are losing their privilege status to guide and inform. The power of their prejudice in favour of doing things by grand design is on the wane.

The West will not just sound and feel a very different place. If we really are witnessing a decisive blow against top-down determinism – the death of what Hayek called ‘constructive rationalism’ – it will change the way the West is governed fundamentally.

Carswell the Bennite

Historically, it was the left that sought to disperse power among the people. This high-minded aim informed and elevated the English radical tradition over the centuries. It was the cause of the Levellers and the Chartists and the Suffragettes, the cause of religious toleration and meritocracy, of the secret ballot and universal education. The left is right to take immense pride in these achievements, which almost no one now questions …

Yet, with some exceptions – among whom, in a special place of honour, stands Tony Benn – few contemporary British leftists show any interest in dispersing power when doing so would mean challenging public sector monopolies. The left, in short, has let the standard of radicalism slide from its fingers. The question is whether the right will snatch it up.

Carswell the optimist

Be happy. The West’s Big Government model has failed. So we will manage with less government – and rediscover how it was we once thrived.

Jennifer Williams from the Manchester Evening News says Ukip is hoping to get at least 30% of the vote in Heywood and Middleton.

On Question Time David Dimbleby says he’s heard the turnout in Clacton was 50%.

For Ukip, getting an MP in parliament will be a major step forward. It will boost its status in relation to the other parties.

But having Douglas Carswell as its first MP in parliament may also have an impact on the party itself. That’s because Carswell, although conventionally labelled as a rightwinger, is actually markedly more liberal than many in his new party. The Economist explained this well in an article branding him “the thinking man’s kipper”.

Like all political outfits, UKIP is a coalition. It is a partnership of right-wing shire Tories and white, ageing working-class voters disillusioned with Labour. The instincts of these two groups differ in various areas, but they are united by a preference for authoritarian and nationalist policies. Yet a smaller “third UKIP” also exists: Thatcherite and libertarian, comprising much of the party’s youth and some of its younger parliamentary candidates. Until now, this lot have not been prominent (or, in the case of the quietly libertarian Mr Farage, frank) enough to melt the socially conservative glue holding the first and second UKIPs together. But Mr Carswell is nothing if not outspokenly small-statist. Unlike most of his new party, his instincts on immigration are liberal, he cares deeply about civil liberties and wants to disestablish the church. It is not impossible to imagine his election as UKIP’s first fully-fledged MP (and the way that he votes in parliament) hastening the confrontation between these different wings of the party.

Carswell himself was quite open about some of his liberal thinking in the statement he made when he announced his defection. Here’s an extract.

I’m joining UKIP not because I am a conservative who hankers after the past. I want change. Things can be better than this.

I am an optimist. Britain’s a better place than it was when I was born in the early 1970s.

We’re more open and tolerant. We’re, for the most part, more prosperous. More people are free to grow up and live as they want to live than ever before.

As the father of a young daughter, I’ve come to appreciate what feminism’s achieved. Most girls growing up in Britain today will have better life chances than before thanks to greater equality.

There’s been a revolution in attitudes towards disabled people.

What was once dismissed as “political correctness gone mad”, we recognise as good manners. Good …

On the subject of immigration, let me make it absolutely clear; I’m not against immigration. The one thing more ugly that nativism is angry nativism.

In an interesting blog for the British Future thinktank today, Sunder Katwala says that, if Carswell does set out to change Ukip, this will be “the most audacious modernisation project in British politics”, one that will look the New Labour transformation look modest. But Katwala also expresses considerable doubt as to whether this will happen.

Matthew Goodwin, an academic, is one of the two authors of Revolt on the Right, an authoritative guide to Ukip and its electoral support. He has been tweeting about tonight’s results.

At the Clacton count Ian Davidson, the acting returning officer, has just announced that all the boxes have now arrived.

On Newsnight YouGov’s Peter Kellner also said he expected Labour to win with a majority of around 3,000 in Heywood and Middleton.

BBC Question Time is being broadcast from Clacton. On the programme Eric Pickles, the Conservative communities secretary, has virtually admitted his party will lose here.

A Clacton byelection reading list

Here’s a Clacton reading list.

Only in Asmara after Eritrea’s bloody war have I encountered a greater proportion of citizens on crutches or in wheelchairs.

Shops tell you so much. Though at Burton’s they are offering “Free shoes when you buy a suit! (from £99)”, Lycra is the textile of choice and I saw not a single woman under 70 in a skirt, still less a dress. I was able to stock up on reading glasses at £1.99, and in Holland & Barrett the “Serious Mass Muscle Gainer” came in bucket-sized black plastic tubs at the checkout for the impulse purchaser. There are ten tattoo parlours and no Waterstones.

Enough. Don’t buy the too-easy media picture of a rancid or untended town, or of bitter people; but understand that Clacton-on-Sea is going nowhere. Its voters are going nowhere, it’s rather sad, and there’s nothing more to say. This is Britain on crutches. This is tracksuit-and-trainers Britain, tattoo-parlour Britain, all-our-yesterdays Britain ...

Some of the Tory right want to drag the Conservative party the same way: to invest our political future in the disappointed, the angry, the nostalgic and the fearful. This is not a crazy strategy, because the market in pessimism is easy to capture, and easier to hold on to than the market in optimism; there will always be millions of pessimists.

But the truth from which the right hides is this: you cannot have both. You cannot look like a party for the resentful and still appeal to the cheerful. If you want to win Cambridge you may have to let go of Clacton.

Carswell responded by suggesting that Parris’s tone was only going to make Clacton even more likely to vote Ukip

In the decorous company of sixth-formers or international businesspeople, Farage will insist he isn’t against immigration, or Europe, or Europeans – only against British membership of the European Union. Being anti-immigration, he has said, would be ‘moronic’. He says he wants a Switzerland-style trade relationship with the EU, and an Australian-style immigration system, based on points, with the world: fewer Polish builders, more Indian scientists. But this isn’t the message Ukip is putting out on the street, where, as Lord Ashcroft correctly noted, EU membership isn’t an issue. Immigration is. All immigration. Foreignness. Otherness. ‘Say no to mass immigration,’ a Ukip flyer in Thanet says. Rumours and urban legends about victimised indigenous Britons and pampered foreigners fly across the internet. Hate anecdotes in the right-wing press become generalised: if one foreigner is found to be cheating the system, there must be thousands like them, millions. Farage is the beneficiary. Ukip’s discourse isn’t so much a dog whistle as the full dog orchestra.

Labour are saying their vote has held up in Heywood and Middleton. The postal vote turnout was 66%, they say.

Peter Kellner expects Ukip majority of 10,000 in Clacton

YouGov’s Peter Kellner has told Newsnight that he expects Douglas Carswell to win in Clacton with a majority of around 10,000.

Labour seem more keen to talk about the Conservatives than about their own performance in Heywood. If the Tories lose Clacton it will be “a humiliation for David Cameron”, a party source says. Clacton was the party’s 86th safest seat. And if the Conservatives get less than 29.9% of the vote, that will be their largest drop in vote share in any byelection since 1994, Labour says. (The two Clacton polls have had the Conservatives on 20% and 24% respectively.)

Labour also claims that, overall, its record in byelections this parliament has been good. The source said:

Outside Northern Ireland there have already been 16 by-elections since May 2010 (not including Heywood and Middleton or Clacton). Labour have won 13 and our average vote share has gone up 5.5 percentage points. The Tories have won one and their vote share has gone down by 10.5 points. The Lib Dems have won one and their vote share has gone down by 11.2.

Although Ukip are confident about winning Clacton, the party is downplaying expectations. One poll (see 20.19pm) gave Ukip a lead over the Tories of more than 40 points but “it’s going to be a lot closer than that”, a source told me. Ukip claim a lot of its support has come from people who have not voted before and that ensuring that these people actually got to the polling booth was a challenge.

According to Tory sources, the turnout in Clacton is expected to be around 45/50%. That would be high for a byelection.

Updated

Results - Timings

The Clacton result is expected between 1.30am and 3am. And the Heywood result is expected at around 2am. But these forecasts are often unreliable, so don’t set too much store by them.

Heywood and Middleton - Essential data

And here are the key numbers for Heywood and Middleton

2010 result

Labour – 40.1% (18,499)

Conservatives – 27.2% (12,528)

Lib Dems – 22.7% (10,474)

BNP – 7% (3,239)

Ukip – 2.6% (1,215)

Polls

And here are the figures from the two polls conducted in Heywood and Middleton.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll on 6 October

Labour: 47%

Ukip: 28%

Conservatives: 16%

Lib Dems: 5%

Greens: 4%

Survation for the Sun on 30 September

Labour: 50%

Ukip: 31%

Conservatives: 13%

Lib Dems: 4%

Greens: 3%

Clacton - Essential data

Here is some key data for Clacton.

2010 result

Conservatives (Douglas Carswell, of course) – 53% (22,867)

Labour – 25% (10,799)

Lib Dems – 12.9% (5,577)

BNP – 4.6% (1,975)

Greens – 1.2% (535)

Ukip did not stand.

Polls

Lord Ashcroft’s poll on 2 September

Ukip: 56%

Conservatives: 24%

Labour: 16%

Lib Dems: 2%

Survation for the Mail on Sunday on 31 August

Ukip: 64%

Conservatives: 20%

Labour: 13%

Lib Dems: 2%

Labour 'confident of winning' in Heywood, says source

And in Heywood and Middleton Labour are “confident of winning”, according to a party source. The party expects to see its vote squeezed by Ukip, which averaged 31.5% here in the 2014 local elections, compared to Labour’s 40%, but it also expects to see the Conservative and Lib Dem share of the vote collapse.

Voting has just closed in tonight’s two byelections, in Clacton, and Heywood and Middleton, and the Conservatives have all but admitted that they’ve lost Clacton.

Normally the media get excited about byelections when the result is in doubt. But in Clacton, in Essex, this has been marked down as the seat where Ukip will get an MP elected for the first time ever since Douglas Carswell took Westminster by surprise in August by announcing that he was defecting from the Conservatives and resigning from parliament so that he could fight a byelection as a “Kipper”.

Tonight it seems to have paid off. The Conservatives had a majority of 12,068 here in 2010, but Carswell seems to have taken his majority with him to Ukip. “It looks like what everyone expected,” one Tory source told me, referring to the two polls conducted during the campaign showing Ukip well ahead. “Don’t expect any surprises,” another Tory said. Ukip claim it is “not in the bag yet”, but they are almost certainly being diplomatic. Carswell is on course to become Ukip’s first elected MP.

(I phrase it like that because Bob Spink sat in parliament under the Ukip banner for a period before the 2010 election after resigning the Conservative whip.)

We’ve also got another byelection in Heywood and Middleton, where Labour are defending the seat in the contest caused by the death of Jim Dobbin. Labour is expected to win, but it has been worried about the threat from Ukip, which is on course (according to the polls) to come a good second.

I’m in the Princes Theatre in Clacton, which also doubles as a town hall, in the balcony set aside for the press. I’ll be covering both byelections from here.

If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

And if you want to read our blog from earlier about voting in the byelections, it’s here.

Updated

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