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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Pound slides as UK growth slows to brink of stagnation - as it happened

Bricks on a building site
Bricks on a building site Photograph: David Davies/PA

UK stock market ends on a high

Britain’s stock market has responded to today’s growth slowdown....by hitting its highest level in almost three months.

The FTSE too jumped 80 points to close at 7,502, its highest finish since 31 January.

It’s mainly due to the slide in the pound, which pushes up the value of exporters (as their overseas earnings are more valuable).

Major multinational firms led the risers, including Burberry (+3%), Unilever (+2.5), and Diageo (+2.2%).

European stock markets showed more modest gains, with Germany’s DAX gaining 0.65% and France’s CAC up 0.5%.

Markets were also cheered by the remarkable scenes from Korea today, where the leaders of North and South have held talks and even hugged like a couple of old friends.

David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, says:

The drop in the pound has helped the FTSE 100. The British equity benchmark is internationally focused and the slide in the pound has helped the market hit its highest level since early February.

The geopolitical mood is improving after the historic meeting between North and South Korean leaders, as it suggest the two nations are on the road to peace.

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Kim Jong Un meet in Panmunjom today.
South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Kim Jong Un meet in Panmunjom today. Photograph: UPI / Barcroft Images

And that note, it’s time to wrap up. Thanks, and have a good weekend. GW

These charts help tell the (unhappy) story of Britain’s economy in the last three months:

UK GDP
UK GDP
UK GDP

Why the UK economy has faltered

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, says there are three reasons why the UK economy slowed to a near-standstill in the last three months.

First, construction had a terrible start to the year, with a drop in output of more than 3%. Without that, growth would have been 0.3%, in line with City forecasts. Activity had been weak in every month, not only in late February and early March, the ONS made clear.

Some analysts said the first-quarter collapse of the construction company Carillion, which had knock-on effects to smaller subcontracting firms, had a bigger impact than the weather.

Second, the strong performance by manufacturing during 2017 came to an end in early 2018. Factory output was up 1.3% in the final three months of last year but by 0.2% in the latest quarter. A slowdown in the eurozone has led to weaker demand for UK exports but survey evidence suggests that manufacturers have run into capacity constraints following years of underinvestment.

Third, the lack of spending power for consumers is having an impact on the service sector, which accounts for around 80% of the economy and grew by only 0.3% in the first quarter.

More here:

Sterling keeps falling as interest rate rise looks unlikely

Back in the markets, the pound has hit an eight-week low as traders continue to digest Britain’s alarmingly sharp slowdown.

Sterling has shed a cent and a half, to $1.37, its lowest point since the start of March.

The pound vs the US dollar
The pound vs the US dollar Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The pound has also shed one eurocent against the euro, dropping to €1.14.

Investors are concluding that an early UK interest rate rise now looks a lot less likely, given the weak growth in the last quarter - and the fact that the poor weather is only partly to blame.

Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, says the UK GDP figures have undermined the pound sharply.

Buying sentiment towards the British Pound was dealt a severe blow on Friday, following reports that the U.K economy grew much slower than expected in Q1.

U.K GDP growth slowed to 0.1% in the first quarter, much worse than the expected 0.3%, and its weakest since 2012. While the snow had some negative impacts on GDP, the bad weather really can’t bear all the blame - its effects on growth were small.

Today’s dismal GDP figures have not only dented confidence in the health of the U.K economy, but also in the Bank of England’s ability to raise interest rates in May. With the Pound notorious for its extreme sensitivity to monetary policy speculation, further downside is likely as investors heavily reduce bets of a rate hike next month.

BoE and ECB to work together on Brexit

NEWSFLASH: The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are teaming up to protect the financial services industry from Brexit risks.

Details are sparse, but presumably it will look at the issue of access to the EU by City banks after Brexit, passporting, regulatory equivalence, and the huge number of EU-based derivative contracts owned by UK banks.

In a statement, the UK government says:

Today, the European Commission and HM Treasury have asked the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to convene a technical working group on risk management in the period around 30 March 2019 in the area of financial services. The European Commission and HM Treasury will attend as observers and other relevant authorities will be invited on an issue-specific basis.

This technical work is separate from the on-going negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and the UK and from the negotiations on the overall understanding of the framework for the future relationship between the EU and the UK.

In a nutshell....

Here’s Moody’s take on the American growth figures:

U.S. GDP growth moderated in the first quarter, but at least part of the slowdown is statistical coming from residual seasonality in the data.

Real GDP grew 2.3%, better than expected but below the 2.9% in the fourth quarter and the weakest growth in a year, according to the advanced estimate from the BEA.

Growth, though modest, was widespread including investment, consumer spending, trade and government. Imports and durable goods spending were drags. Real disposable income growth accelerated to 3.4% on the back of tax cuts, after rising 1.1% in the fourth quarter. The saving rate jumped to 3.1%, from 2.6% in the fourth quarter.

Why did US growth slow a little?

The US GDP report shows that consumer spending, the biggest portion of the American economy, only rose by 1.1% in the last quarter.

However, business investment remained solid, and trade boosted growth (having been a drag on growth at the end of last year).

Growth in government spending slowed to 1.2%, from 3%, but inventory building by companies added almsost 0.5% to growth.

That all added up to a growth rate of 2.3% (if the pattern in Q1 was expanded over the full year) - a little better than expected.

Here’s some snap reaction:

US growth stronger than expected

NEWSFLASH: America’s economy grew much faster than Britain in the first three months of this year.

US GDP expanded by almost 0.6% between January and March, or at an ‘annualised rate’ of 2.3%.

That beats forecasts of 2.0% annualised growth, but is a little slower than the 2.9% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017.

More to follow....

We’re about to discover how America’s economy fared in the first three months of this year.

But first, here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on the disappointing UK growth figures:

Britain’s economy slowed to a virtual standstill in the first three months of 2018, the weakest period of activity in more than five years.

Office for National Statistics figures showed a sharp contraction in the construction sector, weaker manufacturing growth and a squeeze on consumer spending power contributed to GDP growth of 0.1% in the first quarter.

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, said the economy was strong and that the exceptional weather in late February and early March had been partly to blame for the slowdown. The ONS, however, said the “beast from the east” had been only a minor factor.

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said: “The truth is that the last eight years of Tory economic failure has allowed our economy to be left exposed.

“It’s clear to everyone except Philip Hammond that our economy is in need of increased investment and working families are struggling with the cost of living and the burden of increasing household debt.”

Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, said: “One week of snow doesn’t explain a decade of weak growth, dismal productivity and falling wages. It’s the avalanche of cuts that has done the long-term damage.”

The performance of the economy was much worse than the Bank of England had been expecting and almost certainly puts paid to any chance of an interest rate rise when the monetary policy committee meets early next month.

City firm Fathom Consulting reckon there’s an evens chance that Britain suffers two quarters of negative growth this year - the official definition of a recession.

In another worrying sign, the ONS says there is a “longer-term weakening” in Britain’s service sector, particularly in “domestic consumer-facing industries”.

Here’s a chart showing the details of today’s UK GDP report:

UK GDP breakdown

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady blames government cutbacks for Britain’s slowdown:

“One week of snow doesn’t explain a decade of weak growth, dismal productivity and falling wages. It’s the avalanche of cuts that has done the long-term damage.

“We need to modernise Britain’s infrastructure. The government should set up a National Investment Bank to upgrade roads and rail, and to bring high-speed broadband and clean energy to every part of Britain.

“And it’s time to get our public services back up to strength. Schools, hospitals and other vital services are part of Britain’s core economy. If they remain starved of resources, the rest of the economy will continue to struggle too.”

The Evening Standard (edited by former chancellor-turned-newspaper editor George Osborne) has pinned the blame firmly on Brexit:

The latest figures out today show gross domestic product grew by just 0.1 per cent in the first three months of this year.

There’s been a sharp fall in construction, manufacturing barely grew and the consumer is squeezed by higher inflation.

All this against the backdrop of a world economy that, by contrast, is going gangbusters.

Two years ago, Britain was the fastest growing of the major Western economies. Then the country voted to leave the EU, and the Government said we would also leave the single market and customs union.

Now we are the slowest growing of the major Western economies.

Draw your own conclusions.

Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury, says Britain is still ‘Tiggerish’ despite the slowdown (referencing a line from chancellor Hammond’s budget speech)

Today’s figures also show that Britain’s economy has only expanded by 1.2% in the last year.

That’s much slower than average, illustrating how growth has slowed in recent quarters.

Professor Costas Milas and Dr Mike Ellington of the University of Liverpool argue that such weak growth “kills the case” for the Bank of England raising UK interest rates next month.

How likely is for this first GDP estimate to be revised upwards? Our database suggests that since 2006, the ONS has produced a first annual GDP growth reading which has on average been only 0.11 percentage points lower than the revised one. Therefore, if history repeats itself, the revised GDP growth reading will be only slightly higher at 1.2%+0.11%=1.31% which is equally disappointing!

MPC members cannot, and will not, ignore the fact that the latest data for GDP growth and inflation are substantially weaker than their most recent predictions. Annual GDP growth of 1.2% is far below their forecast in February 2018 that suggested 1.65% was the most likely outcome for the first quarter of 2018. Likewise, the figure for 2018Q1 CPI inflation, of 2.7%, is also far lower than their prediction of 2.92% reported in February 2018.

Theresa May’s official spokesman has opined:

Alfie Stirling, Head of Economics at the New Economics Foundation, makes an important point - the link between wages and economic growth has frayed badly since the financial crisis:

“Today’s GDP estimates from the Office for National Statistics are again disappointing, and fall far short of what would be expected from a healthy economy.

“But worse still is that GDP growth of any kind is no longer leading to higher real wages. Since 2010, GDP growth has become ‘decoupled’ from growth in pay with the latest estimates showing that total pay in February was the lowest monthly level seen for 2 years.

“This grim phenomenon is unique, both to the community of major economies and to the UK’s own historical record. It points to an economic model that is no longer working for people.”

Updated

Danielle Haralambous, UK analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, isn’t buying the ‘snow excuse’ either.

She says:

Growth was surprisingly soft in the first quarter of 2018, even lower than our expectation, which factored in the impact of bad weather in February-March.

This hit output in the construction sector particularly hard, but there is more to the story than snow, and the slowdown will be a big consideration in the Bank of England’s deliberations next month.

Ivan Petrella, associate professor at Warwick Business School, says the UK economy is showing signs of weakness - and Brexit may well be to blame.

Today’s GDP number confirms a recent trend of slow growth and a weakening economy.

“One is tempted to attribute a large part of that to uncertainty following the Brexit referendum. In fact, after the initial boost to growth associated to the fall of the pound, the UK economy considerably under-performed with respect to its European partners last year and shows all the signs of heading for the same trend this year.

Here’s Rob Kent-Smith of the Office for National Statistics on Britain’s shock slowdown:

“Our initial estimate shows the UK economy growing at its slowest pace in more than five years, with weaker manufacturing growth, subdued consumer-facing industries and construction output falling significantly.

“While the snow had some impact on the economy, particularly in construction and some areas of retail, its overall effect was limited with the bad weather actually boosting energy supply and online sales.”

Labour: Blames the Tories, not the snow

John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, says Philip Hammond should blame his own government, not the weather, for Britain’s alarmingly weak growth this year.

McDonnell argues that the UK urgently needs fresh investment:

“Today’s disappointing GDP figures further confirm that continued Tory austerity cuts are weakening growth.

“The Chancellor will want to blame this all on a bit of bad weather, but the ONS say this had a limited impact. The truth is that the last eight years of Tory economic failure has allowed our economy to be left exposed.

“This is the weakest Q1 growth since 2012. It’s clear to everyone except Philip Hammond that our economy is in need of increased investment and working families are struggling with the cost of living and the burden of increasing household debt.

“The next Labour government will end austerity and provide the investment vitally needed to kick-start the economy to deliver rising living standards for the many, not the few.”

Updated

UK chancellor Philip Hammond has blamed the ‘Beast from the East” for Britain’s weak growth, saying that “exceptional” bad weather had some impact.

One problem, chancellor.... the Office for National Statistics says the snow only had a “generally small” impact.

According to the ONS, Britain’s services industries were “broadly unaffected” by the bad weather, while there is “no evidence to show that the fall in the manufacturing growth was due to the effects of the snow.”

IoD: Brexit uncertainty is hurting business confidence

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors, says Britain’s GDP figures are “particularly disappointing”.

Growth has slowed much more sharply expected, and he singles out Britain’s exit from the EU as a factor:

“The icy weather slowed industrial deliveries, grounded construction projects, and pushed consumers off the high-street, so some cooling was expected. But it clear that some further underlying weakness persists in the economy.

“It should hopefully bounce back this quarter. Some of the business activity lost due to the snow will be recovered over the coming months, leading to a rebound in the figures. Consumer spending power will also be bolstered by the fall in inflation.

“But, the bigger picture remains one of a safe but sluggish economy. Confidence amongst business leaders, whilst no longer outright pessimistic, remains very much on the fence, and that is largely a result of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the precise nature of Brexit.

BCC: UK is trapped in global slow lane

Dr Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), says Britain’s economy is suffering from political paralysis.

“Sadly, the latest GDP figures confirm what we have been saying for some time: the UK is stuck in the global growth slow lane, while other countries race ahead.

“Westminster politicians need to start focusing their attention on a much stronger, more proactive drive to boost growth and investment. While the ‘Beast from the East’ clearly had an impact in the first quarter, the underlying slow-growth trend is real cause for concern.

Marshall adds that Britain’s “faltering infrastructure, a training system in chaos and patchy digital connectivity” are all holding the economy back.

UK GDP per head has fallen!

Most worryingly, Britain’s economy has actually shrunk - once you adjust for population increases.

Although gross domestic product has risen by a meagre 0.1% in the last three months, it contracted by 0.1% on a per-capita basis.

Updated

The ONS is adamant that this slowdown can’t just be blamed on the icy weather that blasted Britain over the winter:

UK economy slows: Snap reaction

There were gasps on the City’s trading floors (and in at least one newsroom) when the unexpectedly weak UK growth figures were released.

Jeremy Cook, Chief Economist at WorldFirst, says the slowdown in growth caused “a sharp intake of breath”.

0.1% is the lowest quarter on quarter growth since Q4 2012 with particular weakness seen in construction and services sectors – sectors worth over 80% of the UK economy. There are some caveats within this number of course; it is only the advance reading and therefore subject to revision and the poor weather that the UK suffered will have had a large effect on demand, particularly private consumption. That being said, March’s numbers were horrific, are unlikely to be part of the sample yet and any revision to this advance number could easily be lower as opposed to higher.”

“It’s not just UK voters who could call themselves the JAMs – Just About Managing - it now seems that the wider UK economy is in that predicament too.”

Marc Brütsch, chief economist at insurance group Swiss Life, says the UK economy failed to hit expectations:

Economist Howard Archer also fears that the economy is weakening:

Pound tumbles to seven-week low

Sterling is tumbling as City traders react to the news that the UK economy barely grew in the last three months.

The pound has lost a whole cent against the US dollar to $1.3815, its lowest level since 9 March. Investors are wagering that the Bank of England will be reluctant to raise interest rates next month, when the UK economy looks so fragile.

Why UK growth fell to a five-year low

The Office for National Statistics reports that Britain’s construction sector shrank sharply in the last three months, dragging the UK growth rate down to just 0.1%.

The ONS says:

  • UK GDP growth was the slowest since Quarter 4 2012, with construction being the largest downward pull on GDP, falling by 3.3%.
  • Production increased by 0.7%, with manufacturing growth slowing to 0.2%; slowing manufacturing was partially offset by an increase in energy production due to the below-average temperatures.
  • The services industries were the largest contributor to GDP growth, increasing by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2018, although the longer-term trend continues to show a weakening in services growth.
  • While some impacts on GDP from the snow in the first quarter of 2018 have been recorded for construction and retail sales, the effects were generally small, with very little impact observed in other areas of the economy.

UK ECONOMY SLOWS

BREAKING! UK economic growth slowed sharply in the first three months of 2018, with GDP rising by just 0.1%.

That’s the weakest quarterly growth since the last three months of 2012, and a worse result than expected.

More to follow....

Tensions is building as the City prepares for the first estimate of UK GDP to be released, in just three minutes...

Economist Catherine Colebrook has written about the shortcomings with GDP in the Guardian today.

She says it fails to measure whether poverty is being reduced, whether the environment is being protected, or if people are happier (themes that Bobby Kennedy picked up in 1968).

She explains:

If we want to understand whether the economy is really delivering for its citizens, we need some new indicators. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), where I am the chief economist, is proposing a dashboard of five outcome indicators, to be updated annually, which would directly measure our progress against the outcomes the public wants the economy to deliver – broadly shared prosperity, justice and sustainability.

Our chosen indicators are the distribution of the gains from growth; poverty rates among children and adults; levels of wellbeing among individuals at different income levels; the gap between the median income of the poorest region of the UK and the richest; and the gap between projected carbon emissions and the cost-effective path to decarbonisation.

Suren Thiru of the British Chambers of Commerce is also expecting a UK slowdown....

Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, says there’s a risk that Britain’s growth rate slowed sharply in the first quarter of this year, to below the City forecast of 0.3%.

If so, that would cut the chances that the Bank of England raises interest rates next month.

It’s now 50 years since Robert F. Kennedy gave his now-famous speech explaining why gross domestic product is a flawed measure that tracks “everything, except that which makes life worthwhile”.

Here’s a Youtube clip of the speech, given to the University of Kansas in March 1968, three months before Kennedy’s assassination.

As Kennedy brilliantly put it:

It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman’s rifle and Speck’s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.

It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.

Updated

The UK Treasury have created a short video explaining GDP:

French economy slows: what the experts say

Sylvia Walter, senior economist at insurance company Swiss Life, says the French government shouldn’t panic about the slowdown:

Agathe Demarais of the Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that the current rolling strikes on France’s railways will hurt growth this quarter.

Bloomberg’s Marcus Bensasson says bad weather hurt the French manufacturing sector:

France’s economy saw growth slow sharply in the first quarter as winter storms ripped through the country, hitting factory production.

Gross domestic product expanded 0.3 percent, the weakest in more than a year and less than half the 0.7 percent pace recorded in the previous three months. It’s also slightly below the 0.4 percent estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Spain posts 0.7% growth, again

A Spanish flag

Just in: Spain’s economy has posted another quarter of solid growth.

Spanish GDP rose by 0.7% during the first three months of this year, official figures show. That means Spain has grown by 0.7% per quarter for nine months in a row.

The annual growth rate dipped slightly, to 2.9% from 3.1%, but is still fairly strong.

Updated

French growth slows to 0.3%

French flag

Bad weather, falling business investment and weaker export growth have combined to slow the French economy.

Statistics firm INSEE explains that a series of factors meant French growth slowed to just 0.3% in the last three months, from a bouncy 0.7% in the last three months of 2017.

According to INSEE:

  • French household consumption rose by 0.2%, the same as three months earlier
  • Business investment (gross fixed capital formation) dropped to +0.6%, from +1.1%
  • Exports fell by 0.1%, having risen by 2.5% in October-December.
  • Manufacturing production shrank by 1.1%, compared with 1.5% growth previously

That all adds up to a chunky slowdown - economists had expected growth to slow to +0.4%.

French quarterly growth
French quarterly growth Photograph: INSEE

Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, says it’s a poor - but not catastrophic - result, adding:

[Annual] Growth of above 2.5 per cent in the second half of 2017 was never going to be sustained for long, and one-off factors such as weather also likely dented consumers’ spending in Q1.

The agenda: It's UK GDP day

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we get a major healthcheck on the global economy with new growth figures for Britain, the United States, France and Spain.

Economists predict they will show a slowdown on both sides of the Atlantic in the first three months of this year, as bad weather and worries over trade wars hit growth.

In the UK, quarterly growth is tipped to fall to 0.3%, from 0.4% in October-December. That would be rather weak performance in historical terms., below the country’s long-term trend growth rate.

Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada thinks Britain could have suffered an even sharper slowdown, given the bitter weather that gripped the country this winter.

Q1 GDP is out today, but will likely be affected to the severe weather conditions in the quarter. Our economists are in line with consensus (0.3% q/q), but markets would probably be tolerant of a downside miss in particular, given the weather-related uncertainty.

US growth is also expected to have slowed, from around 0.7% to 0.5% on a quarterly basis.

Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group says the American growth figures will be closely scrutinised by investors.

Economic growth in the first quarter is forecast to have slowed to 2% on an annualised basis, down from 2.9%, as consumers spending braked sharply.

This is expected to more of a bump in the road rather than the start of a full on change in direction for the US economy, which remains supported by a tightening labour market and sizeable tax cut.

And we’ve just learned that French growth rate slowed sharply, to just 0.3% from 0.7% in the previous quarter. That appears to confirm fears that the eurozone is slowing, after a strong 2017 (more in a moment).

Also coming up today

We’ll be watching the ongoing tech problems at TSB Bank, as customers still struggle to access their accounts a week after its IT migration.

Eurozone finance ministers will be meeting to discuss Greece’s bailout, which expires this summer.

The Bank of England is launching a new educational resource to help young people understand how the economy works.

Plus, there could be some credit rating announcements tonight:

Here’s the agenda:

  • 8am BST: Spanish GDP for January-March 2018
  • 9.30am BST: UK GDP for January-March 2018
  • 10am BST: Eurozone economic confidence stats for April
  • 1.30pm BST: US GDP for January-March 2018
  • 3pm: Bank of England launches its econoME educational resource

Updated

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