The efficacy of the government’s home quarantine system to prevent the spread of coronavirus in the UK has been “much lower” than expected, a leading scientist has said.
As a result, the home quarantine system may not stop Covid-19 variants from entering Britain, Imperial College London epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson warned.
However, in an interview with ITV, Prof Ferguson, whose team played a role in helping define the terms of the first lockdown in March of last year, warned that “the effectiveness of...home quarantine visitors” was “much lower than we might have hoped”.
“If you’re wanting to stop variants coming into the country through border measures then the only really effective way of doing that is quarantine outside the home,” he said.
Under the current traffic light travel system, only people returning from red list countries are required to stay at a quarantine hotel.
Those arriving from such countries will have to book a quarantine hotel package, which includes two more Covid-19 tests. They will also need to complete a passenger locator form ahead of their arrival.
Those returning from “amber” list countries are expected to self-isolate at home for 10 days upon arrival. They are also expected to take a Covid test upon or before their arrival, as well as on day two and on or after day eight of the quarantine period.
In some other countries, all travelers arriving must quarantine at a hotel upon arrival.
In Canada, for example, all visitors, including returning citizens, must book and pay for a three-night stopover at a government-authorised hotel upon arrival.
Those who cannot provide evidence of a pre-booked and pre-paid accommodation at a government-authorised hotel upon arrival could face a $3,000 (£1,750) fine.
Ultimately, Prof Ferguson said variants could only ever be stopped “to some limited extent” when it comes to allowing travel to open up.
He said the government had to make decisions around whether that concern should outweigh allowing the free movement of people and allowing the travel industry to open up.
“I think the science is becoming clearer but still effectively it is a policy and political decision,” he said.
The government has already faced accusations of failing to put India on its red list fast enough, with some claiming restrictions were delayed due to Boris Johnson’s planned trade trip to India.
That accusation has been denied, however, with officials insisting the government acted early and before the variant had been officially put under investigation.
