Network Rail is planning for fewer than one in 10 trains to run if next week’s strike goes ahead, with the biggest commuter service entirely halted and a freight train ban bringing steel production to a standstill, leaked documents setting out its contingency plans show.
Hopes that the strike may be averted have been raised after the smaller of the two rail unions due to strike called off its industrial action on Thursday, after an improved pay offer – and less than an hour before a legal challenge from Network Rail was due to be heard in the high court.
The major rail union, the RMT, was still set to strike although Network Rail will hope its latest proposal will avert industrial action.
The track operator also fears major business contracts could haemorrhage from railway to road if disruption continues, including mail services and freight links serving the UK’s major delivery hubs, according to documents seen by the Guardian.
No freight trains will run between Sunday night and Wednesday. The analysis shows even a 24-hour stoppage would have a critical impact on iron and could bring production to a halt at steelworks around the country.
Passengers have already been warned to expect huge disruption to trains, with no services at all on Tuesday on South West Trains, the biggest commuter network, or on Virgin’s west coast intercity trains. Commuter services in major cities including Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Edinburgh will also be severely disrupted.
No details have yet emerged of Network Rail’s revised offer. The original four-year deal froze salaries at inflation and did not extend guarantees against feared job losses until beyond 2016. Talks at the arbitration service Acas were adjourned on Thursday for the unions to consider the proposals.
Manuel Cortes, general secretary of the smaller TSSA rail union, said: “Our negotiating team at Acas has received a revised offer from Network Rail. As a result of this, they have suspended the planned industrial action, pending the outcome of a meeting of our workplace representatives next week.”
The transport secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, said: “I welcome the decision of the TSSA union to suspend their part in the threatened strike action next week and hope that a resolution between RMT and Network Rail can also be achieved.”
While the TSSA union’s membership is only a fraction of the RMT’s, Network Rail believes it can now run around half the normal service to Gatwick airport on Tuesday. Otherwise, no trains would have run to the airport that day, affecting travellers and airport staff, and potentially damaging the airport’s prospects of expansion instead of Heathrow.
Should the RMT action continue, passenger trains will be particularly affected on Tuesday, when key commuter services will be out of action as people return to work after the bank holiday, but many will also be cancelled on Monday as the strike starts at 5pm.
Contingency plans are being drawn up for the Championship play-off final at Wembley, as well as the Three Queens event in Liverpool – an unprecedented gathering of the world’s three largest cruise ships that is expected to draw 600,000 people.
Network Rail is planning to publish full timetables on Sunday afternoon, the last moment when it believes industrial action could be averted.
As potential passengers start to redraw their own travel plans, motoring organisations warned that the traditional holiday jams were likely to intensify. The RAC, which estimates that 20 million drivers could take to the road over the bank holiday weekend, said: “If the strike does go ahead, it’s likely to add to the jams that we’re expecting on many of the major routes.”
Highways England has further suspended many roadworks on motorways and main roads until Thursday morning in anticipation of the rail strike.
Coach companies have put on extra services to meet demand, with National Express so far adding 18,000 extra seats.
Most tube services in the capital will run as normal but are likely to be very crowded, with commuter trains and London Overground largely out of action on Tuesday. Transport for London is running about 100 extra bus services.
Michael Roberts, director general of the Rail Delivery Group, which represents Network Rail and train operators, said: “The proposed industrial action will severely affect the travel plans of millions of passengers, stop vital freight deliveries, and disrupt lives and the economy.”
Meanwhile, the threat of a tube strike has emerged as the train drivers’ union Aslef announced it would ballot its members over pay and rostering on the tube. New all-night services will see drivers forced to work night shifts from September. The traditionally moderate union has not called a tube strike in the last 13 years.
