Summary
On a busy day, UK public finances showed a surprise surplus of £184m in July, compared to forecasts of a £1bn deficit. The number was boosted by higher than expected tax receipts.
Meanwhile the latest CBI industrial trends survey brought positive news on manufacturing orders and exports.
In Germany, however, there was a surprise drop in economic sentiment.
On the foreign exchanges, the pound continues to weaken, thanks to Brexit concerns and a revival in the dollar.
On the corporate front, Provident Financial saw its shares slump after the UK lender issued another profit warning, bade farewell to its chief executive, abandoned its dividend and revealed an investigation by regulators into its Vanquis Bank.
Elsewhere the Pensions Regulator said it would prosecute Dominic Chappell for failing to provide documents it requested during its investigation into the sale of BHS.
Stock markets have regained some poise, with the FTSE 100 up 0.8% despite the collapse in Provident Financial’s shares. Germany’s Dax is currently 1% higher while France’s Cac has climbed 0.75%.
On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back bright and early tomorrow.
Despite the surprise surplus in July, the UK’s public finances will take time to sort out, says Larry Elliott:
The government was in the happy – and unusual – position of being in the black in July. To the surprise of the City, tax receipts were higher than public spending. Not by much, but a surplus is still a surplus even if in the context of a £1.8tn economy it is small change.
This, though, was a classic case of one swallow not making a summer. For a start, the deficit in the first four months of the financial year – a much better guide to the trend than a single month’s figures – was higher this year than last.
Moreover, despite strong growth in employment, PAYE receipts last month were only 1.6% higher than in July 2016. That is entirely consistent with an economy where workers struggling to secure a decent pay rise are not paying very much tax.
The first July surplus since 2002 was an improvement on a small £400m deficit in July 2016 but close examination of the Office for National Statistics data suggests that was the result of an £800m jump in receipts from self-employment.
But as a number of analysts pointed out, in 2016 the deadline for the self-employed fell on a weekend, with the result that many payments were not processed until August. To judge whether there has been any real improvement in self-employment receipts we will have to wait for the August data to come out.
Larry’s full analysis is here:
Updated
£ at nearly €0.92. We're one hawkish ECB message and one rubbish bit of UK econ data away from a new record low in trade weighted sterling.
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) August 22, 2017
Here’s Lord Macpherson – who on Monday described QE as “like heroin” – on the public finances:
Good to see budget in surplus if only for one month. But 23% rise in debt interest bill in year to date a reminder UK not out of woods.
— Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2) August 22, 2017
Updated
Brexit concerns are outweighing the positive public finance figures as far as the pound is concerned, says Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex:
The first July surplus meant little to the pound this Tuesday, which wilted in the face of a resurgent dollar.
With little news on the key US fronts – North Korea, the status of economic advisor Gary Cohn – the greenback saw no reason to not to rebound, climbing half a percent against both the pound and the euro.
It wasn’t all due to dollar strength, however. Sterling suffered from a renewal of the semi-persistent Brexit fears, while the euro was hurt not only by a weaker than forecast pair of German and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment readings but further doubt that Mario Draghi will say anything to boost the currency at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment survey showed a fall from 35.6 to 29.3 in August.
Back with the UK public finances, and Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club, says they could give chancellor Philip Hammond some leeaway in his forthcoming budget :
A welcome summer break for the chancellor as the public finances saw the first July surplus since 2002.
Specifically, there was a marginal repayment of £184m on public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNBex) in July. This compared to a shortfall of £308m in July 2016.
June’s shortfall was also revised down to £6.2bn from a previously reported £6.9bn. Even so, June’s shortfall was up markedly from £4.8bn a year earlier - partly due to a major payment to the EU budget as well as higher debt interest payments.
Completing a hat-trick of good news, the 2016/17 budget shortfall was trimmed again to £45.1bn from £46.2bn.
The public finances particularly benefited in July from a 10.6% year-on-year (y/y) rise in self-assessed income tax receipts, which ties in with the resilience of the labour market...
If the pattern of the first four months were repeated over the full fiscal year, 2017/18 public borrowing would come in at £49.2bn. This would be well below the shortfall of £58.3bn forecast by the ONS in March’s Budget.
While a struggling economy and higher interest debt payments look likely to weigh down on the public finances over the coming months, there’s a good chance that the chancellor will have a little wiggle room in November’s Budget.
Rising dissatisfaction with austerity and the public sector pay cap is exerting pressure on the government to recalibrate fiscal policy in November’s Budget. However, it currently seems most likely that there will be limited adjustments to the fiscal approach rather than radical policy changes.
While the chancellor has indicated that he has taken on board the views of the electorate, he has stated that he remains committed to the fiscal rules set out at the Autumn Statement which lead to a balanced budget by mid-2020’s.
More on the pound. Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com, said:
Sentiment towards the British pound remains negative and so if the dollar were to stage a more meaningful comeback then the GBP/USD would be the one to watch as it could drop heavily.
The pound is currently down 0.6% at $1.2824.
GBPUSD at a 40 day low after breaking below recent range. Approaching the key 1.2811 support level pic.twitter.com/5arquSepQV
— Joshua Mahony (@JMahony_IG) August 22, 2017
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UK manufacturers report strong demand
Manufacturers expect strong growth in the next three months after a pick up in orders in August, according to the CBI’s latest industrial trends survey.
The survey showed 30% of manufacturers reported order books above normal, with 17% saying they were below normal. The balance of +13% was higher than the +10% level seen in July and above the long run average of -14%.
As for exports, 22% of firms said they were above normal and 10% below.
Output growth remained strong and broad based and is expected to remain so over the next quarter. #CBI_ITS https://t.co/m53aToSWoQ pic.twitter.com/hb5GrDjw3f
— CBI Economics (@CBI_Economics) August 22, 2017
Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic Intelligence, said:
There are further signs that exporters are feeling the benefit from the lower pound in this month’s figures, and output growth is expected to power on over the coming quarter.
But she added:
After a brief pause last month, expectations for selling prices have rebounded, indicating that the squeeze on consumers is set to persist. We expect CPI (Consumer Price Index) to top out at around 3% towards the end of this year and remain close to that level during 2018, as the effect of the weak pound continues to feed through.
Updated
Here’s our story on the UK public finances. Richard Partington writes:
The government ran the first July budget surplus in more than a decade last month, as Britain’s public finances recorded an unexpected leap back into the black with help from an increase in self-assessed tax payments.
Public sector net borrowing last month, excluding the nationalised banks, was in surplus by £184m, the first surplus in that month since 2002, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday. City economists had expected the government to record a £1bn deficit.
Receipts from self-assessed income tax increased by £800m to £8bn last month, compared with July 2016, giving the government the highest level of July self-assessed tax receipts since it started recording these payments in 1999.
Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY Item Club, said the figures were a welcome boost for the chancellor, Philip Hammond, who now had a “very decent chance” of undershooting his 2017-18 fiscal target.
The full story is here:
Pensions regulator to prosecute Dominic Chappell over BHS
BREAKING:
The Pensions Regulator has announced it will prosecute Dominic Chappell over its investigation into BHS. The full statement from the regulator reads:
The Pensions Regulator (TPR) is to prosecute Dominic Chappell for failing to provide information and documents it requested during its investigation into the sale of BHS.
Mr Chappell was the director and majority shareholder of Retail Acquisitions Ltd at the time that the company purchased BHS.
TPR is prosecuting Mr Chappell for failing to comply with three notices issued under Section 72 of the Pensions Act 2004. The notices requiring information were issued to Mr Chappell on 26 April 2016, 13 May 2016 and 20 February 2017.
He has been summonsed to appear at Brighton Magistrates’ Court on 20 September 2017 to face three charges of neglecting or refusing to provide information and documents, without a reasonable excuse, when required to do so under section 72 of the Pensions Act 2004, contrary to section 77(1) of that Act.
Earlier this year the regulator started legal action to try and force Chappell to pay as much as £17m into the failed retailer’s pension scheme.
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Here’s Bloomberg’s graphic on the day’s fall in the pound so far:
Pound declines as uncertainties linger about post-#Brexit trade https://t.co/e6Pt8nTRUR via @anoojad pic.twitter.com/7r3lALLDzs
— Forward Guidance (@ecoeurope) August 22, 2017
UK's full year borrowing revised lower
The UK’s net borrowing for the year to March 2017 has been revised lower again, the latest ONS figures show.
It decreased by £27bn to £45.1bn compared with the previous financial year, the lowest level of borrowing since the year to March 2008.
In May the ONS said the figure for the year to March 207 was £48.7bn.
Back to the UK public finances and a good sign for the chancellor:
If pattern of first 4 months of 2017/18 sustained, #UK public borrowing would come in at £49.2 bn – well below £58.3 bn seen in March budget
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) August 22, 2017
German economic confidence disappoints
Over in Germany, the monthly economic sentiment index has come in below expectations.
The ZEW Institute said there was a “strong decrease in expectations” as the index fell from 17.5 in July to 10 in August, worse than the figure of 15 that analysts had been expecting. The figure is well below the long term average of 23.8 points. ZEW president professor Achim Wambach said:
The significant decrease of the ZEW economic sentiment indicator reflects the high degree of nervousness over the future path of growth in Germany. Both weaker than expected German exports as well as the widening scandal in the German automobile sector in particular have helped contribute to this situation. Overall, the economic outlook still remains relatively stable at a fairly high level.
The German ZEW index remains at elevated levels, however German investors are concerned about the future, the expectations fell to 9-mth low
— City Index (@CityIndex) August 22, 2017
The better than expected UK public sector finances have done little for the pound, at least as far as the dollar is concerned. It is now down 0.4% at $1.2847.
But it is down just 0.01% against the euro at €1.0915, as the single currency comes under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers later this week.
#EURUSD is lower today as scepticism enters the market that the ECB's Mario Draghi will say anything to boost the euro at #JacksonHole
— City Index (@CityIndex) August 22, 2017
Boost for #Chancellor as #UK #public #finances see first Jul surplus since 2002; repayment of £184 on PSNBEx lifted by #income #tax receipts
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) August 22, 2017
Here's what's driven the change in UK public sector borrowing so far this financial year. pic.twitter.com/d46wPMtsax
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) August 22, 2017
This chart shows the monthly as well as the cumulative borrowing figures:
And borrowing as a percentage of GDP:
The receipts from self-assessed income tax, which increased by £0.8bn to £8.0bn compared with July 2016, represented the highest level of July self-assessed receipts on record (records began in 1999).
Updated
UK public finances show surplus
BREAKING NEWS:
Britain has seen the first July surplus since 2002, defying expectations of another deficit.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed a surplus of £0.184bn compared with expectations the government would borrow around £1bn. That compares with a deficit of £0.308bn in July 2016.
That means the total cumulative borrowing for the year so far is £22.8bn, up 9% on the same period last year.
UK Public Finances: receipts from self-assessed Income Tax increased by £0.8 billion to £8.0 billion, compared with July 2016
— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) August 22, 2017
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On BHP, analyst Nicholas Hyett at Hargreaves Lansdown said:
The headline news today is BHP’s decision to exit onshore oil & gas in the US. Coming after pressure from activist investor Elliott International to spin off the entire US oil & gas business, the move is likely to be seen as a capitulation by the board, which had previously argued that the division formed a core part of the group’s operations.
However while that volte face may attract headlines, management’s strategy elsewhere seems to be going smoothly and delivering results.
The focus on cost control at BHP’s already very low cost assets, means cash generation is soaring now commodity prices have turned. Net debt is tumbling, and as that falls towards more sustainable levels it will free up cash for other uses.
Next year a significant portion of the spare cash is going on increased capital spending, particularly in Petroleum and expanding existing mines. But since the group has already proven itself willing to return more than the 50% of earnings its dividend policy dictates, returns to shareholders could benefit as well.
As ever though, that assumes stable commodity prices, and if the last two years have taught us anything it’s the risks of making that kind of assumption.
BHP boosted by US shale sale plans
Back with the stock market, and BHP Billiton is a positive story for the day.
The mining group’s shares are up 3% after it reported a jump in profits from $1.2bn to $6.7bn and confirmed that it planned to dispose of its underperforming US shale oil and gas business after pressure from activist investors.
Updated
The latest grocery market share figures are out, and it is a moment to savour. Sarah Butler reports:
Lidl has overtaken Waitrose to become the UK’s seventh largest grocer as increasingly cash-strapped shoppers turn to the discounters.
The German discount chain reached a new market share high of 5.2% as sales rose 18.9% in the 12 weeks to 13 August – making it the UK’s fastest-growing grocer, according to the latest market share data from analysts Kantar Worldpanel.
Fellow discounter Aldi’s sales rose by 17.2% taking it to a 7% market share. Aldi overtook Waitrose in 2015.
The first British Lidl opened its doors in 1994 and it now has a chain of more than 650 stores after an ambitious expansion programme. Although Lidl has overtaken Waitrose, the upmarket grocer’s share of sales held steady at 5.1%. It managed to increase sales by 2.8% year on year, continuing an unbroken run of growth dating back to March 2009.
The “big four” – Tesco, Sainsbury’s Asda and Morrisons – all increased sales for the fifth period in a row, their best performance since 2013, but nevertheless lost market share as the discounters grew much faster.
The full story is here:
Updated
Provident Financial continues to slide, now down 60%. This means it has lost around £1.5bn so far today.
The pound continues to slip back, down 0.12% to a new eight-year low of €1.0903 against the euro.
Against the dollar, sterling is 0.33% lower at ¢1.2856. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:
Sterling dipped against both the dollar and the euro after the bell...The currency could be helped out, however, by the July’s public sector net borrowing figures, which is expected to see a tax receipt-boosted improvement on June’s £6.9bn deficit.
Updated
Provident Financial shares are now down 53%. Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, said:
Hedge funds that built up short positions in Provident Financial made the right call after another, much bigger, warning has rattled investors and sunk the stock. Provident shares, already down 45% since May, tumbled another 43% on the open, on course for one of the biggest ever one-day falls for a FTSE 100 stock.
A catastrophic share price drop in a subprime lender – it’s like the last ten years never happened. Is this a Northern Rock moment? Probably not – this is more about management failings than a market-wide issue: rivals are taking market share.
The new home credit model isn’t working and drastic action is required. CEO Peter Crook is out and a turnaround is underway already. The previously-announced dividend is being withdrawn and investors shouldn’t expect anything until we see significant improvements. The 5.5% dividend yield was really the last leg holding the stock up but this key support has now gone.
Provident seems to have run into some IT problems on top of the morale and recruitment issues relating to the restructuring. Execution risks remain and there is no easy way out from this hole.
Management will take a long time to regain credibility. This comes just a couple of months after a profits warning off the back of the disruption of moving to the new operating model. It clearly wasn’t going well and, with profits warnings rarely standalone events, there is a touch of inevitably about this.
The performance is abysmal and significantly worse than management ever could have imagined. Collections are running at 57% compared with 90% in 2016, while sales are £9m per week lower than the comparative weeks in 2016.
This blows another hole in the guidance and Provident is now forecasting a net loss of £80m-£120m.
Is this the end? There must be some sense that things cannot get any worse. A review and turnaround is in process. Other areas of the business remain profitable with Vanquis Bank, Moneybarn and Satsuma all still in line with expectations.
Updated
European markets open higher
As expected, European investors are in a brighter mood.
Despite the collapse in Provident Financial – now down 45% – the FTSE 100 is up 0.6%. Germany’s Dax has added 0.8%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.5% and Spain’s Ibex is up 0.7%.
Updated
Unsurprisingly, Provident Financial shares have tanked, falling 44% in early trading.
The company, which joined the FTSE 100 in December 2015, is the biggest loser in the leading index.
Updated
Provident Financial boss leaves after profit warning
The chief executive of Provident Financial. Peter Crook, is leaving after the UK lender issued its second profit warning in two months and said it would not pay a dividend this year as well as cancelling a previously promised payout.
It also announced its Vanquis Bank was being investigated by the Financial Conduct Authority over its repayment option plan. It said:
In view of the substantial deterioration in the trading performance of the home credit business, together with the uncertainty created by the FCA’s investigation at Vanquis Bank, the board has determined that the group must protect its capital base and financial flexibility by withdrawing the interim dividend declared on 25 July 2017 and indicate that a full year dividend is unlikely.
Reuters reports:
The company has been struggling to reorganise its door-to-door subprime lending business, warning in June that its profit would fall as it struggles to switch from using self-employed debt collection agents to employees on its payroll.
Provident Financial, which provides credit to people who do not meet the loan criteria of mainstream banks, billed the reorganisation as a way to create a more efficient and effective home credit business. But it has found it harder than expected to recruit agents.
The firm said on Tuesday the rate of progress being made in the turnaround of the home credit unit is “too weak” and that the business is now falling a long way short of achieving the objectives set out.
Collections performance and sales are both substantially underperforming against last year, Provident Financial said, adding that the pre-exceptional loss for the business is now likely to be in a range of £80m to £120m.
“In response, a thorough and rapid review of home credit’s performance is underway to secure the turnaround of the business,” the company said.
Manjit Wolstenholme will assume the role of executive chairman as Crook departs.
Analyst Peter Lenardos at RBC Europe said:
While Provident is down nearly 40% year-to-date, we expect ongoing substantial losses in the share price, and would not be buyers at any price. While the share correction was making us warm to Provident, this quadruple whammy (another profit warning, no dividend, FCA investigation and CEO departure) lead us to now believe that the shares are not investible until greater clarity is received, which may not be until next year at the earliest.
Numis said:
The FCA is also investigating the group’s ROP product (Provident’s version of PPI) and should they have to repay all of the premiums as the banks have done it could question the viability of the group.
Updated
Persimmon shrugs off Brexit concerns
Not much in the way of corporate news, but we do have figures from the UK housebuilder Persimmon. My colleague Julia Kollewe reports:
Persimmon, one of Britain’s biggest housebuilders, says it has fared better than expected since last year’s Brexit vote, and is looking forward to a good autumn sales season. It posted a 30% rise in profit before tax to £457.4m in the first six months of the year.
The company built 556 more homes than in the same period last year – a total of 7,794 homes, up 8% – and raised its average selling price by 4% to £213,262. The sales price for its upmarket Charles Church brand rose by 9.4% to £347,819.
Chief executive Jeff Fairburn said:
Through the second half of 2016, the group experienced stronger market conditions than expected post the EU referendum on 23 June 2016, particularly through the traditionally slower summer weeks. Against these stronger comparatives, customer interest over the last seven weeks from 1 July has remained robust and our average weekly private sales rate per site was 2% ahead of the same period last year.
Analyst Anthony Codling at Jefferies said:
A very strong, sector-leading performance from Persimmon in the first half, delivering operating margin growth of 380 basis points to 27.6%. In our view, Help to Buy is acting as a bulletproof vest for the new-build sector allowing it to ride above the challenges faced by the secondhand market, with Persimmon continuing to balance the markets appetite more new homes with investors’ desires for higher cash returns.
Updated
European markets set to open higher
After a pretty gloomy day for European markets on Monday - in keeping with the weather - the prospects for today are looking a little brighter.
A slight recovery on Wall Street - helped by further weakness in the dollar - has given a bit of a lift to sentiment. In Asia the Hang Seng has climbed 1% although the Nikkei is virtually unchanged, down 0.05%. Europe is expected to adopt the positive trend:
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7346 up 27
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) August 22, 2017
$DAX 12101 up 35
$CAC 5098 up 11$IBEX 10384 up 24$MIB 21772 up 19
But the concerns troubling investors have not gone away. Tensions between the US and North Korea have not gone away, the turmoil at the White House continues, and there is also nervousness ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers later in the week.
Updated
Agenda: UK public finances and German confidence figures due
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
A slightly busier day today after a relatively quiet Monday, with UK public finances the main focus. The July figure is expected to show an improvement on the previous month’s number, which showed the government borrowing a higher-than-expected £6.9bn. Helped by tax receipts, last month’s rise in borrowing is expected to be just £1bn. Economists at RBC said:
July is a seasonally strong month for government tax receipts as corporation tax instalments are paid as well as a second wave of self-assessment liabilities being settled by individuals.
Therefore, the cumulative deficit for 2017-18 is only expected to expand by £1bn (PSNB ex banking groups measure) to a total of just over £27bn. The full-year target for the deficit is £58.3bn. Revisions to the target are likely in the Budget later in the year.
Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics said:
The public finance figures should show that borrowing fell a little on the year in July... Although the economy slowed in the first quarter, corporate profitability has remained strong.
Later come the CBI industrial trends survey and the latest German confidence figures, which are expected to show a fall from 17.5 to around 14.8.
On the CBI figures, Michael Hewson of CMC Markets said:
An extremely positive number in July boosted confidence in the manufacturing sector, and showed output growing at its fastest rate since the mid 1990s. August is expected to show a slight slowdown to 8 from 10 in July, but nonetheless is expected to largely sustain the positive trend seen a month ago..
The agenda:
9.30 BST UK public finances (July)
10.00 BST German ZEW confidence survey (August)
11.00 BST CBI industrial trends (August)
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