- Economic forecasters warn Britain's economy is poised to "flirt" with recession, with unemployment set to rise significantly due to the ongoing conflict in Iran.
- The Item Club report predicts the UK economy will flatline in the second and third quarters of this year, potentially entering a technical recession, and has downgraded 2025 GDP growth to 0.7 per cent.
- The conflict in Iran is expected to cause higher oil and energy prices, stifling economic activity and leading to the job market's "biggest hit since the pandemic".
- The jobless rate is anticipated to peak at 5.8 per cent by mid-2027, resulting in nearly 250,000 more people out of work.
- Despite inflation projected to surge to almost 4 per cent in late 2026, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.
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