Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Fed defies Trump by indicating it will push ahead with rate rises - as it happened

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York
Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York Photograph: Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

And finally, the New York stock exchange had finished in the red.

The Dow shed 90 points, or 0.36%, taking a bite out of yesterday’s 547-point rally. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were only slightly lower, though.

Sentiment was slightly dampened by confirmation that the Fed expects to press on with interest rate hikes, even if it slows the economy.

That’s all for today. Goodnight. GW

President Donald Trump’s repeated complaints about rising interest rates appear to be having no impact on policy so far, says CNN.

Andreas Johnson, US Economist at Nordic bank SEB, expects the Fed to raise rates three more times in the next eight months, before slowing down:

The minutes from the September meeting state that almost all participants saw little change in their assessment of the outlook. The minutes indicate that the Fed is prepared to press on with rate hikes for now and most participants seem to agree that the fed funds rate should be pushed above the neutral level. However, there is disagreement about the level to which the policy rate should be hiked.

We are sticking to our forecast of another hike in December followed by two additional hikes in 2019 (March and June) and one hike in 2020.

Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E*Trade, agrees that the Fed is resisting Trump’s pressure.

He says (via Sky News):

“For now, the Fed has made it clear that they are focused on their agenda despite rising presidential pressure on their rate decisions,”

Here’s the Fed’s dilemma -- US inflation hit a six-year high this summer, bolstering the case for rate hikes. But it has been dipping since....

Marc-André Fongern of MAF Global Forex says the Federal Reserve remains focused on its mandate:

CNBC also reckon the president won’t be happy that the Fed is sticking to its guns on future interest rate hikes:

Federal Reserve officials remain convinced that continuing to gradually increase interest rates is the best formula to preserve a steady economy, according to minutes released Wednesday of the central bank’s most recent policy meeting.

That may not please President Donald Trump, who has been vocal in his criticism of the central bank’s actions.

A summary of the Sept. 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee session reflected both confidence in the rate of economic growth and some hesitancy over the impact that tariffs might have on the future path.

Some cartoon-based reaction:

There’s no response to the Fed minutes from the White House yet.

But yesterday, Donald Trump said the Fed was his “biggest threat”, because it was raising rates too fast. So we can probably guess his reaction....

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics has read the minutes, and says:

Overall, nothing here to change our view that the Fed will persist with its “gradual approach” of hiking by 25bp each quarter.

That is until mid-2019, when we expect a drop in GDP growth to below-potential to force the Fed to the sidelines.

Read the minutes here

You can read the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting online here.

They show that the Fed expects to press on with interest rate rises in the coming months, despite Donald Trump’s vocal concerns that it is tightening too fast:

This is the key section (I’ve bolded up the main points):

With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants generally anticipated that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would most likely be consistent with a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near 2 percent over the medium term. This gradual approach would balance the risk of tightening monetary policy too quickly, which could lead to an abrupt slowing in the economy and inflation moving below the Committee’s objective, against the risk of moving too slowly, which could engender inflation persistently above the objective and possibly contribute to a buildup of financial imbalances.

Participants offered their views about how much additional policy firming would likely be required for the Committee to sustainably achieve its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. A few participants expected that policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time and a number judged that it would be necessary to temporarily raise the federal funds rate above their assessments of its longer-run level in order to reduce the risk of a sustained overshooting of the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective or the risk posed by significant financial imbalances. A couple of participants indicated that they would not favor adopting a restrictive policy stance in the absence of clear signs of an overheating economy and rising inflation.

Shares in New York have dipped since the Federal Reserve minutes hit the wires.

Traders have noted that the Fed is planning to press on with interest rate hikes, which could weaken growth and push up unemployment.

The Dow is now down 100 points at 25,697, a drop of 0.4%.

Fed frets about trade wars and tax cuts

There’s no explicit mention of Donald Trump or the White House in the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting.

But the US president’s tax cuts, and his deepening trade spat with China, are clearly a concern.

The minutes warn that a trade war could hurt growth:

Some participants commented that trade policy developments remained a source of uncertainty for the outlook for domestic growth and inflation.

The Fed is also concerned about tensions in the emerging markets, due to the strong dollar:

The divergence between domestic and foreign economic growth prospects and monetary policies was cited as presenting a downside risk because of the potential for further strengthening of the U.S. dollar; some participants noted that financial stresses in a few EMEs could pose additional risks if they were to spread more broadly through the global economy and financial markets.

They also fear that Trump’s tax cuts could make the economy run to hot:

With regard to upside risks, participants variously noted that high consumer confidence, accommodative financial conditions, or greater-than- expected effects of fiscal stimulus could lead to stronger-than-expected economic outcomes.

Here’s the Financial Times’ take on the Fed minutes that were just released:

Federal Reserve policymakers said they will forge ahead with further rises in interest rates, with some talking of pushing borrowing costs into restrictive territory, as the central bank seeks to prevent inflation from overshooting its target.

Despite outspoken criticism of rate rises from President Donald Trump, a number of Fed policymakers said in their September meeting that they thought it may become necessary to temporarily boost rates above levels they expect in the longer run. This would prevent inflation from getting too hot and ward off risks of financial excesses, the central bankers said.

Fed: We discussed hiking rates to restrictive levels

Newsflash: The Federal Reserve has discussed raising American borrowing costs to ‘restrictive levels’.

The minutes of last month’s Fed meeting show that officials discussed how much higher interest rates could go.

Several members of the Fed’s rate-setting Open Market Committee indicated that rates could rise higher, to a point above the ‘neutral’ level (where they would neither stimulate or restrict economic growth).

The minutes say:

“A few participants expected that policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time and a number judged that it would be necessary to temporarily raise the federal funds rate above their assessments of its longer-run level.”

That’s a sign that the Fed is prepared to choke off growth, in order to keep inflation in check and avoid financial risks growing to dangerous levels.

But it may also fuel criticism that the Fed is being too aggressive - as Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed.

The minutes also show that Fed officials expect rates to continue rising gradually, from their current level of 2-2.25%.

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York today
Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York today Photograph: Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, points out that tonight’s Fed minutes were written before the markets wobbled last week.

As such, they may be less useful than investors would like:

The dollar was trading higher ahead as the release of the FOMC minutes moved into the spotlight. Given all that has happened since the meeting, there is a high chance that the minutes are in fact out of date.

That said, traders will still scrutinize them closely for any hints as to when the next rate rise will be (December) and what the Fed has in store for 2019.

Wall Street is now clawing back some of those early losses.

The Dow is still down, but only 28 points or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are flat.

Traders are waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting (where it raised interest rates) to be released in an hour’s time. They may shed new light on the Fed’s plans for further rate hikes, and whether policymakers are worried about criticism from the White House.

Royal London seeks Triple Lock clarity

Steve Webb of Royal London Asset Management has called on the government to clarify how the UK pension ‘triple lock’ actually works.

As I covered earlier, there was confusion over which month’s earnings figures would be used to set pension increases in 2019. At one stage yesterday, journalists and Royal London itself were told that August’s figures would be used, before a u-turn this morning (once it was clear that wages, not inflation, would be the key).

Webb argues that ministers are wrong to plump for July (when wages rose by 2.6%), rather than August (when they gained 2.7%), even though July has been used in the past.

Webb, who was once pensions minister, says:

“It is annoying that such uncertainty exists and we need DWP to give clarity on what figures it uses to calculate the triple lock.

We calculate that using July figures instead of August leaves pensioners £100m worse off. It doesn’t make sense that out of date data should be used.”

Here’s something new to worry about - the Bank of England fears that too much money is being lent to indebted companies, often at high interest rates (reflecting its riskiness):

European stocks markets have closed in the red, with the French CAC and German DAX both down around 0.5%.

Auto makers had a bad day, after figures showed a 24% tumble in EU car sales last month (as manufacturers struggled to meet new emissions rules).

In London the FTSE 100 had a better day, down just 4 points.

Shares in US housebuilders are having a bad day, after disappointing construction data.

The number of new housing projects dropped by 5.3% in September. Hurricane disruption is partly to blame, but this is a bigger fall than expected. Construction activity in the South fell by the most in nearly three years, probably due to Hurricane Florence.

Back on Wall Street, today’s sell-off is gathering more pace.

The Dow is now down 220 points or 0.8% at 25,577, handing back a chunk of yesterday’s big rally.

Here’s our news story about the latest UK inflation figures:

UK inflation dropped further than expected last month as the falling price of meat and chocolate helped reduce some of the pressure on cash-strapped British consumers.

The Office for National Statistics said the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.4% in September from 2.7% the previous month, confounding City analysts’ forecasts for a more modest reduction to 2.6%.

Combined with the pay growth figures for British workers, which showed average weekly earnings rising at the fastest rate in almost a decade, the latest snapshot for UK inflation suggests pressure on households is beginning to fade two years on from the EU referendum.

The latest figures are also likely to dissuade the Bank of England from raising interest rates before Britain formally leaves the EU in five months time as it suggests inflation is gradually returning to the 2% target set for the central bank without the need for higher borrowing costs.

The ONS said the largest downward contribution to inflation, which measures the rising cost of living, was thanks to food and non-alcoholic drink prices dropping by 0.1% between August and September. Meat and chocolate prices provided most of the downward contribution.

Ferry prices also fell from a surprisingly high summer peak, while the cost of going to the theatre dropped compared to an increase a year ago.

More here:

A person displays Netflix on a tablet.

Netflix is defying the downward gravitational pull of Wall Street.

Shares in the streaming service have jumped by 6.5% since the opening bell, after yesterday’s strong results showing a jump in new subscribers and profits in the last quarter (its Q3).

Chris Ford, manager of the Smith & Williamson Artificial Intelligence Fund, says Netflix has shaken off the memory of disappointing results three month ago (for Q2).

Ford writes that Netflix shares now look good value:

“Despite posting a weaker-than-expected set of figures in Q2, we believe the numbers for this quarter show Netflix has the guile and ingenuity that one would expect from a company of its stature.

“Q2’s numbers were below Street estimates, but Netflix took a conscious and sensible decision to take a step back from releasing new content and the latest seasons of its most popular shows as it correctly predicted that the FIFA World Cup would impact sales and viewership.

“In Q3 we have seen Netflix return to doing what it does best, retaining its current subscribers through its high-quality series, and enticing new ones by using its proprietary algorithms to target specific content to specific users in specific regions. Today’s results are important as they are indicative of how Netflix is positioning itself for future growth.”

“We continue to believe that Netflix remains an attractive proposition globally, especially in light of the recent market volatility which saw its share price fall to a multi-month low.”

Consumer goods, technology, mining and industrial companies are all dropping in New York.

IBM is the biggest faller on the Dow (now down 6.6%), followed by Home Depot (-2.5%).

Shares in New York are dipping at the start of trading.

The main indices have opened lower, with the Dow falling around 100 point at the open.

The open of Wall Street today
The open of Wall Street today Photograph: Bloomberg TV

IBM is having a bad start, tumbling 6.5% after disappointing Wall Street with a bigger-than-expected drop in profits last night.

Property partner at Pinsent Masons, Kevin Boa, says a ‘perfect storm’ of problems combined to drive UK house price inflation down.

They includes:

Interest rates increases, government policy changes that have shrunk the buy to let market, Brexit upheaval and the reduction in EU and overseas buyers, particularly in London all contribute to this decline.

Despite this, there remains a huge undersupply of housing which will only become more acute over time.”

Back in the markets, Wall Street is expected to open cautiously in just over an hour’s time.

The Dow is being called down 100 or so points, having surged by almost 550 yesterday, in the biggest one-day rally in seven months.

Policymakers at the Bank of England will be relieved to see UK inflation dropping last month.

Weakening price pressures take pressure off the BoE to consider raising interest rates any time soon. So with Brexit approaching a crescendo, the Bank can sit tight, even though wages are rising.

Joel Dungate, Investment Analyst at Redmayne Bentley, explains:

“The figure came a day after encouraging wage growth figures, which showed pay rose by 3.1% in the three months to August, the fastest pace in nearly a decade. This is positive news for consumers, as it should, in theory, increase their spending power. This, in turn, is good news for the UK economy which relies heavily on consumer spending.

“The inflation figure will also come as a relief to the Bank of England, which will be under less pressure to raise rates in the near future. It now appears increasingly unlikely that the central bank will raise rates again before the terms of the UK’s Brexit deal with the EU are clarified. On the other hand, if the trend of real wage growth continues, then we might expect rising inflation in the longer term.”

Heads-up: Gatehouse’s savings products are actually more generous than I wrote earlier (I accidentally used an old chart). Their one-year fixed savings account has an expected profit of 1.9%, while the five-year fixed account is 2.68%.

TUC: Stop freezing benefits

The TUC are urging the government to end the freeze on working-age benefits, and raise them in line with inflation again.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady says:

“Although prices are rising, support for working families is still frozen. Too many households can’t make ends meet without being forced into the red.

“If Theresa May is serious about her claim that austerity is over, then the government must reverse unfair cuts to working age benefits.”

Alex Collinson, the TUC’s policy and campaigns support officer, shows how the cap has pushed down the value of benefits.

That freeze affecting a range of benefits including tax credits, child benefit, jobseeker’s allowance.

The IFS has calculated that freezing these benefits in cash terms has saved the government billions, and cost many poor households hundreds of pounds per year.

Updated

In other news, UK house prices growth has fallen to its lowest level in five years - but still faster than inflation.

The Office for National Statistics reports that average house price growth dropped to 3.2% per year in August, down from 3.4% in July. That’s the slowest increase since August 2013.

The ONS blamed a “sustained slowdown” in the south and east of England, with prices dropping by 0.2% per year in London.

The average UK house now costs £233,000, although London prices are still much pricier, at an average of £486,000.

UK house price growth

The Triple Lock confusion has been resolved!

The Department for Work and Pensions have told us that the government will used July’s earnings figures when setting pension increases.

That means the state pension should rise by 2.6% next year (as we originally thought).

Updated

Savers still being squeezed by inflation

Although wages are rising faster than the cost of living, the same isn’t true of saving rates.

Even the best one-year fixed term bank accounts listed on Money Supermarket are only offering around 2% per year, below September’s inflation rate.

Charles Haresnape, CEO at Gatehouse Bank - the Shariah-compliant challenger bank – says savers face a struggle:

“Savers will be relieved that inflation has finally fallen after three successive rises.

“However, despite this good news, the truth is that in the current low interest rate environment savings struggle to keep pace with the rising cost of living.

“Savers need to make their money work as hard as possible. The savviest will be looking to the rates offered by smaller banks - including those with ethical philosophies - which typically pay higher rates, to try and combat the very worst effects of inflation.”

Gatehouse’s own 1 Year Fixed Term Deposit account offers a profit of 1.9% per year, rising to 2.68% per year on a five-year fixed (updated).

Updated

Triple Lock confusion....

Important point: Confusion is swirling about which earnings figure the government will use to set the Triple Lock for state pensions next year.

In the past, it has used annual total wage growth for the quarter to July, which was 2.6%.

But there’s some speculation that it might actually use August’s data (published yesterday), which showed total wages up by 2.7%.

Apparently the Department of Work and Pensions told Royal London Asset Management yesterday that they would use the August number, which would be a departure from previous policy [according to this House of Commons briefing paper].

That 0.1 percentage point only actually means 20p per week to pensioners, we reckon. But in total, that adds up to £100m per year, according to RL’s Steve Webb (a former pensions minister).

We’ve asked the DWP for clarification on this point. Officials are huddled in a meeting as I type.....

Updated

Tom Selby, senior analyst at AJ Bell, says pensioners should welcome the Triple Lock (despite the confusion over exactly which earnings figure will be used):

“Today’s figures will provide a welcome income boost to millions of people currently in receipt of the state pension. Those who get the flat-rate amount will see their annual payment increase by over £220 in April next year, a smaller increase compared to last year but still not to be sniffed at. With inflation returning to the economy, the value of protection against rising prices is not to be underestimated.

“In the context of the triple-lock, it’s worth noting the guarantee will cost the Government nothing compared to the earnings and inflation ‘double-lock’ some have proposed. It is only in a low inflation, low earnings environment that the promise begins to bite.

Updated

BRC: Inflation means £180m increase in business rates

British retailers are gritting their teeth at the prospect of even higher business rates.

They are due to rise next year in line with today’s inflation reading, meaning an extra £180m total bill according to the British Retail Consortium.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, argues the current system is simply unfair.

She says:

“These figures confirm that the retail industry, which is under significant pressure from public policy and a consumer and technology-led transformation, will face yet another eye-watering rise in business rates next April. The burden of the current business rates system, which is in urgent need of reform, is leading to store closures and hindering the successful reinvention of the retail industry.

“Ministers need to act to address this £180m increase in retailers’ already unsustainable business rates bill, along with other public policy burdens which retailers are struggling to absorb the cost of.

“We need a freeze in the business rates multiplier until the next revaluation to help save shops, protect jobs, and future-proof retail, and to give the Government time to work with industry to reform the business tax system and make it fit for purpose in the 21st century.”

Updated

Any inflation is bad news if your benefits are capped:

Updated

The Resolution Foundation thinktank agree that households should welcome today’s inflation data (even though it shows energy bills are rising).

Resolution are hopeful that real wages will accelerate in the coming months:

At 2.4%, Britain’s CPI inflation has fallen to a three-month low. It hasn’t been lower since March 2017.

Thanks to the Triple Lock, Britain’s state pension will rise by £4.25 per week next year (assuming the government doesn’t ditch it).

Financial expert Paul Lewis has all the details:

Here’s what it means for pensioners, and those saving for a pension:

Expected figures for 2019:

  • Weekly state pension: £168.60
  • Annual State pension: £8,767.20
  • The Lifetime Allowance will go up in line with the CPI increase to: £1,054,800

Updated

Some instant reaction to the fall in UK inflation:

(CPIH, another inflation measure, adjusted for housing costs. CPI, though, is used to set pensions and business rates)

Falling inflation is good news for households across the UK.

Yesterday we learned that basic pay jumped by 3.1% per year in the three months to August, the fastest growth since the financial crisis.

Why did inflation fall?

  • Cheaper food and drink helped to pull inflation down last month. However, higher energy prices did have an upward impact on inflation.

  • The Office for National Statistics says:

  • The largest downward contribution to the change in the CPIH 12-month rate came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, where prices fell by 0.1% between August and September 2018 compared with a rise of 0.8% between the same two months a year ago.

  • The main effects came from meat where prices fell, between August and September, this year but rose a year ago and from chocolate.

  • Transport also had a downward effect, with passenger transport fares showing larger price falls between August and September 2018 than between the same two months a year ago. The largest effect came from sea fares with a smaller downward effect from air fares.
    • UK inflation details

    As explained earlier, this inflation rate will also dictate pension entitlement increases across the state sector.

    It means:

    • Teachers’ Pension – Increases of CPI + 1.6% = +4%
    • NHS Pension – Increases of CPI + 1.5 % = +3.9%
    • Police Pension – Increases of CPI + 1.25% = +3.65%

    UK inflation falls to 2.4%

    Breaking: Britain’s inflation rate fell to 2.4% in September, weaker than expected, and down from 2.7% in August.

    That means the State Pensions will rise by 2.6% under the Triple Lock next April, because average earnings in the last year (+2.6%) have grown faster than inflation.

    More to follow!

    Updated

    Lagarde pulls out of Saudi conference

    In other news, IMF chief Christine Lagarde has become the latest big name to pull out of Saudi Arabia’s big investment conference.

    This follows the international outcry over the disappearance and apparent murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

    A Fund spokesperson says:

    “The Managing Director’s previously scheduled trip to the Middle East region is being deferred.”

    A swathe of business chiefs have also withdrawn, including Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chas, BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga.

    Donald Trump, though, has come to the Saudi’s defence, accepting denials that those at the top were involved at all.

    Over in the City, the pound has dipped a little to $1.316 as traders watch for Brexit developments.

    Theresa May is heading to a crunch meeting with fellow EU leaders tonight, where she will try to make progress on the sticky issue of the Irish backstop.

    But there’s little hope of a major breakthrough, with many cabinet ministers insisting that the backstop should be time-limited and not split Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

    Konstantinos Anthis, Head of Research at ADSS, points out that the pound hasn’t been too badly hit by the Brexit deadlock:

    UK Prime Minister Theresa May is heading to Brussels today with no breakthrough related to the Brexit talks in her bags and will instead ask the EU leaders to keep working towards a solution.

    What’s interesting however is that even though we’ve seen no progress, the pound is trading with a positive bias since the beginning of the week. There’s only one way to read this: everyone who’s bearish regarding a “no deal” Brexit is already short sterling and the only ones dipping their toes in the market are the short-term speculators hoping for a positive resolution.

    Former Who singer Roger Daltrey has weighed in too. Rather than hoping to die before he gets old, Daltrey now hopes to see Britain out of the EU - with its ‘gravy train’ and ‘democratic deficit’ - as soon as possible....

    How inflation will affect teachers, NHS and police pensions

    A clinical nurse using a healthcare app in a surgery day care ward.
    A clinical nurse using a healthcare app in a surgery day care ward. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

    Investment service Hargreaves Lansdown have released a very useful note on public sector pensions.

    It shows how today’s inflation reading will affect millions of state sector employees, by determining how much goes into their pension pot each year.

    Since 2015 Public Sector Pensions have moved to using Career Average Earnings as opposed to final salary pensions.

    This basically means that each year members ‘bank’ their accrued pension and this is uprated in-line with the previous September’s inflation.

    Some pensions increase this cumulative accrued benefit by more than inflation, so for three key sectors it means:

    • Teachers’ Pension – Increases of CPI + 1.6%
    • NHS Pension – Increases of CPI + 1.5 %
    • Police Pension – Increases of CPI + 1.25%

    So if inflation was 2.7% in September 2017, the increase for pensions being accrued would be 4.3% on the Teachers’ Pension, 4.2% for those in the NHS and 3.95% for the Police Pension Scheme.

    Those increases outstrip rises in actual earnings in recent years, due to the government’s austerity programme.

    Nathan Long, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says an imbalance is building:

    ‘With inflation outstripping wage growth, there is a risk that public sector workers could find their overall pay distorted towards their life after work. Saving for a pension is important, but so too is having enough to put food on the table and pay the bills.

    Continued periods of goods going up more in price than the rise in wages could create even bigger challenges.’

    Updated

    Introduction: UK inflation rate to set pensions and business rates

    Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, the eurozone and business.

    Millions of UK pensioners and public sector workers, and thousands of businesses around the country, will be affected by new inflation figures being released today

    September’s consumer prices index will show how the cost of living rose last month.

    But crucially, it will be used to determine Britain’s state pension “triple lock”. It will also determine increases in public sector pensions for teachers, NHS workers and the police.

    The Triple Lock is a pledge that pensions will increase each April in line with wages, earnings, or 2.5%, whichever is higher.

    City economists predict that CPI will have risen by 2.6% per year in September, with guesstimates varying from 2.4% up to 2.8%.

    So with average earnings rising by 2.6%, today’s inflation reading will determine just how much Britain’s state pension will rise by in April 2019. It’s currently £164.35 per week (equivalent to £8,546.20 per year).

    The Triple Lock does have its critics -- the Conservative Party proposed dropping the 2.5% floor in the last election, while the International Monetary Fund thinks it is too expensive. But others argue that pensioners deserve a decent increase, and to be protected from the ravages of inflation.

    But Britain’s hard-pressed companies will hit in the pocket by a large jump in inflation, as CPI is used to set business rates.

    Press Association explains:

    Business rates - which essentially serve as specific property taxes for resident businesses - could go up by as much as 819.23 million in England if the headline rate of inflation remains unchanged at 2.7%, according to real estate advisor Altus Group.

    It said 209.76 million would be paid by the ailing retail sector, which has seen a number of players go bust in recent month amid higher costs and lower consumer spending.

    So there’ll be a lot of interest when the Consumer Price Index figures are released, along with a new survey of UK house prices.

    Also coming up today

    Investors are in a cheerier mood, after Wall Street posted its strongest gains in almost seven months last night.

    The Dow surged by almost 550 points, as the markets shook off last week’s worries:

    Netflix brought more cheer after the closing bell, by reporting a big jump in subscribers.

    Later today we get the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting, when it raised interest rates to 2.25%.

    Following that meeting, Donald Trump launched several attacks on the Fed for being too aggressive. Last night, he made a fresh assault, claiming that the central bank was his biggest threat, adding:

    It’s going too fast. Because, you looked at the last inflation numbers, they’re very low.

    So much for central bank independence....

    The agenda:

    • 9.30am BST: UK inflation data for September
    • 9.30am BST: UK house price figures for August
    • 3.30pm BST: US weekly oil inventory data

    Updated

    Sign up to read this article
    Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
    Already a member? Sign in here
    Related Stories
    Top stories on inkl right now
    One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
    Already a member? Sign in here
    Our Picks
    Gwen Stefani faces “MAGA Makeover” allegations after promoting lent App
    “hey everyone, I just got my ashes, and I’m ready for Lent”: gwen stefani faces backlash over lent prayer challenge
    The Fashion Central
    The Fashion Central
    Kelly Osbourne Before And After Weight Loss Photos: Ozzy's Daughter Gets Flak For Alarming Look During Brit Awards
    Kelly Osbourne's appearance at the 2026 Brit Awards sparked online discussions about her weight loss, leading her to address body-shaming comments on Instagram.
    International Business Times UK
    International Business Times UK
    What Happened To Kelly Osbourne? BRIT Awards Appearance Sparks Frenzy As She Slams 'Ozempic Face' Speculation
    Kelly Osbourne confronts body-shaming comments following her appearance at the 2026 BRIT Awards, addressing speculation about her weight loss and health.
    International Business Times UK
    International Business Times UK
    SNL Was Forced To Change A Sketch At The Last Minute And Complained About It On The Air
    Fear. Rage. Chaos.
    Cinemablend
    Cinemablend
    Woman sees her favorite singer started following her on Instagram and jumps with excitement. Then she opened their account: ‘This is humiliating’
    TikTok creator Paloma (@whor3chata_) is sparking a massive wave of sympathy (and second-hand embarrassment) on TikTok with her recent grwm story. The creator shared the “before and after” of being followed by one of her favorite singers on Instagram. Sadly, the “after” is humiliating.
    The Mary Sue
    The Mary Sue
    Harry Styles, fake stage invaders and a censored Peter Mandelson joke: the biggest moments at the Brit awards
    The ITV censors had their work cut out in a protest-filled, relatively edgy ceremony that hosted ultra-expressive performances from Rosalía, Wolf Alice and more
    The Guardian - UK
    The Guardian - UK
    Fourteen days free
    Download the app
    One app. One membership.
    100+ trusted global sources.
    Download on the AppStore Get it on Google Play