Sterling has enjoyed a good day, with the higher than expected UK inflation figures dampening speculation that the Bank of England would cut interest rates in November.
The suggestion from government lawyer James Eadie that parliament could have a bigger role in Brexit proceedings also helped support the UK currency.
So against the dollar the pound has gained 0.9% to $1.2295, while it has also climbed against the euro, up 1% to €1.1185.
On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.
European shares close higher
Although they have come off their best levels, it has been a good day for European stock markets. The FTSE 100 has just squeezed back above the 7000 level, albeit lagging behind European peers, after a revival in sterling and bond prices. Some positive corporate news, from building group Bellway in the UK to Goldman Sachs and Netflix in the US, has helped support sentiment. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said:
Stock markets are in rude health this afternoon, with the FTSE moving back over the 7000 mark, as earnings season continues to come in ahead of expectations. We can also point to weakness in the US dollar for the gains over the past few hours, as markets take the cue from Fed officials and note that there are still hurdles to a possible December move.
Earnings season has given investors the chance to look under the bonnet of the US economy, and so far they like what they see, especially in financial stocks. Couple that with some excellent figures from Netflix which indicate that consumer spending is holding up well across the globe, and we have a potent recipe for stock market gains, as the traditionally strong fourth quarter performance reasserts itself.
The final scores in Europe showed:
- The FTSE 100 finished up 52.51 points or 0.76% at 7000.06
- Germany’s Dax rose 1.22% to 10,631.55
- France’s Cac closed up 1.32% at 4508.91
- Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 2.02% to 16,966.61
- Spain’s Ibex ended up 1.43% at 8865.3
- In Greece, the Athens market added 1.33% to 593.83
On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 96 points or 0.5%.
Back with exchange rates, and the effect of the day’s inflation figures, financial analyst Connor Campbell at Spreadex said:
It seems that the pound’s pleasure at a potentially delayed Bank of England rate cut is outweighing the hopes of a US rate hike this Tuesday afternoon.
With US inflation coming in as expected at 0.3% at a monthly basis and 1.5% annually, the Federal Reserve seemingly got another green light to raise rates before the end of 2016 – Clinton-election win permitting, that is. However, the usual boost this would have given the dollar was largely lost this afternoon, the pound instead holding strong with a 0.8% increase against the greenback, taking it back towards 1.23 as sterling cheered the fact that Mark Carney and co. likely won’t cut rates in November.
OPEC could reach output deal - secretary-general
Hopes that oil producers can reach agreement on limiting output have received a boost. Reuters reports:
OPEC should be able to reach a deal next month to limit oil production without too much disagreement about individual countries’ output levels, the producer group’s secretary-general said on Tuesday.
Mohammed Barkindo also told journalists on the sidelines of the Oil & Money conference that Russia, which is not in OPEC, was not backtracking on its pledge to contribute to output limits should OPEC reach a deal at its next meeting on Nov. 30.
“We expect that all the building blocks will be in place in a timely fashion for the implementation,” Barkindo told the conference, an annual London gathering of top oil officials and company executives.
“I am optimistic we will have a decision,” he said.
Despite this optimism on the part of producers, crude prices have edged lower. Brent crude is down 0.16% at $51.44 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate is off 0.02% at $49.93.
Updated
US inflation figures have added to the idea that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates before the end of the year. James Knightley, a senior economist at ING Bank, said:
Today’s inflation numbers are certainly no barrier to Federal Reserve rate hikes. Assuming the presidential election doesn’t result in significant financial market volatility and the employment numbers continue to post reasonable 150,000 or so gains, the likelihood of a December rate hike will look strong.
This has supported the dollar, which hit a high for today of $1.0983 against the euro.
Despite this, the pound continues to hold most of its gains against the dollar, up by 0.9% at $1.2290, as UK inflation figures suggest that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates further in November.
Updated
Wall Street opens higher
US markets have opened sharply higher, lifted by well-received updates from Goldman Sachs and Netflix.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 109 points or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 opened 0.7% higher and the Nasdaq Composite about 1%.
European markets have remained buoyant, with Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac both about 1.4% higher. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, is up 0.8%, with continuing worries about Brexit taking some of the shine off.
Updated
UK inflation: the key points
Here’s a handy summary of today’s UK inflation report, for anyone just tuning in:
And here’s a chart showing that British companies are being charged much more for their raw materials since the pound dropped:
UK producer price inflation, ONS Sep 16. Looking ahead, this more important than consumer price inflation imho https://t.co/yuJtv7rWCX pic.twitter.com/wBd7JKCDw1
— (((FrancesCoppola))) (@Frances_Coppola) October 18, 2016
Updated
The prospect of poor families suffering a tighter inflationary squeeze hasn’t dampened the mood in the City.
The pound is up by almost one cent to $1.228.
The FTSE 100 has jumped back over the 7,000 mark, gaining 76 points (1.1%).
Joshua Mahony, a market analyst at IG, says:
Recent worries appear to have been dismissed this morning, with the FTSE gaining ground at a rapid rate, despite the negative implications of this morning’s UK inflation update.
Fears over a hard Brexit certainly seem overdone, given that we are still months from even entering negotiations, let alone close to finding any trade solutions. Equity markets are recovering across the board, with sentiment no doubt helped along by Netflix’s standout figures last night.
Updated
US inflation jumps to 1.5%
Newsflash: Britain isn’t the only country experiencing higher inflation.
Consumer prices in the US rose by 1.5% annually in September, figures show, up from 1.1% in August.
As in the UK, fuel prices were a major factor, increasing by 5.8%.
On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3%, broadly in line with expectations.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, came in at 2.2%. That’s down from 2.3% and a little weaker than Wall Street expected.
US Sept inflation in-line, core a touch softer #usd
— Mike van Dulken (@Accendo_Mike) October 18, 2016
Updated
Phil Aldrick of the Times also fears that inflation will jump as the increase in prices charged by producers (factory gate prices) hits consumers.
Inflation at 1pc and ONS saying it's not to do with sterling, but energy. Meanwhile PPI is over 7pc. Big prices rises still to come
— Philip Aldrick (@PhilAldrick) October 18, 2016
Updated
The chancellor, Philip Hammond, could potentially help some of those hurt by inflation by changing the way in-work benefits are uprated.
Who will rising inflation hurt most? The poor. Unless govt changes course on the plan to freeze working-age benefits in cash terms pic.twitter.com/eIyOk33hTz
— Sarah O'Connor (@sarahoconnor_) October 18, 2016
Updated
The BBC’s Kamal Ahmed has also written about how poorer families, including those in work, will suffer from higher inflation [as flagged earlier].
He writes:
As Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, made clear on Friday, the first to feel the impact of a rise in inflation - at its most basic an increase in the price of essentials like food and fuel - are the “just managing classes” who spend a high proportion of their income on daily staples.
These are people in work but who feel very far from comfortably off.
Add to that the benefits freeze announced by the government last year, and the toxicity of even relatively low levels of inflation becomes clear.
Before the freeze, those on working age benefits or tax credits would be shielded to an extent from inflation by an automatic increase in benefits in line with the headline figure.
With that connection broken, real incomes for those on benefits and in work will be more adversely affected.
As the Institute for Fiscal Studies said this morning: “This policy [the benefits freeze] represented a significant takeaway from a large number of working age households.
“But it also represented a shifting of risk from the government to benefit recipients.
“Previously, higher inflation was a risk to the public finances, increasing cash spending on benefits.
“Now the risk is borne by low-income households: unless policy changes, higher inflation will reduce their real incomes.”
Here's inflation 2006-2016. And my blog on why today's increase matters, particularly for those on in-work benefits https://t.co/1q8uqFMkDB pic.twitter.com/6cWk2hePsx
— Kamal Ahmed (@bbckamal) October 18, 2016
As we mentioned earlier, the Office for National Statistics has played down suggestions that the fall in the pound is fuelling the jump in inflation.
Mike Prestwood, head of inflation at the ONS, said this morning that:
“There is no explicit evidence the lower pound is pushing up the prices of everyday consumer goods.”
That’s probably because some UK firms used currency hedges to protect themselves against the pound dropping, and because companies are swallowing higher costs where they can.
Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, predicts that the Bank of England won’t be spooked into tightening monetary policy:
Competition in the high street could spare consumers from some of the effects of the weak pound. But if businesses find they are operating with lower profit margins, they will seek to save money by tightly controlling wages. One way or another, living standards are going to be squeezed.
Will higher inflation lead to the Bank of England raising interest rates? Almost certainly not. Threadneedle Street has already said it is prepared to accept a temporary overshoot of the 2% inflation target, rather than risk damaging the economy’s growth prospects. Only if higher inflation looks to be becoming embedded will the Bank move. For the moment, that does not appear to be much of a risk.
Here’s his analysis:
Rising inflation is just the start: UK living standards will be squeezed https://t.co/GFQPvouldZ
— Guardian Business (@BusinessDesk) October 18, 2016
IFS: Poor families to lose £100/year as inflation jumps
The jump in inflation will cost poorer households around £100 each, because their benefits will not rise in line with CPI.
That’s the grim warning from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
And it’s all because George Osborne recently froze some benefits, breaking the traditional peg with inflation.
The IFS explains:
In the July 2015 Budget the Government announced that, as part of its attempt to cut annual social security spending by £12 billion, most working-age benefit and tax credit rates would be frozen in cash terms until March 2020.
This policy represented a significant takeaway from a large number of working age households. But it also represented a shifting of risk from the Government to benefit recipients. Previously, higher inflation was a risk to the public finances, increasing cash spending on benefits. Now the risk is borne by low-income households: unless policy changes higher inflation will reduce their real incomes.
The government had expected this change to cost households £260 per year each. But with inflation higher than forecast, the real cost has jumped to £360.
And remember, benefits such as tax credits go to poor working people, to help them achieve a minimum standard of living.
The IFS concludes:
While it is perfectly reasonable to argue – as the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto did – that the working age benefit system should be made less generous over this parliament, it is hard to see why the appropriate size of cut should be arbitrarily determined by the impact of movements in sterling on prices.
Poorest families to lose an extra £100 a year as rising inflation compounds benefit freeze, says @TheIFS https://t.co/e2Ql8GKUAR #brexit
— Patrick Butler (@patrickjbutler) October 18, 2016
Updated
Treasury: UK economy is fundamentally strong
The Treasury has taken a break from falling out with pro-Brexit government ministers, and sent over a response to today’s inflation report.
However, it doesn’t really address the fact that consumer prices jumped by 1% in the last year.
A spokesperson says:
The economy is fundamentally strong, with a record number of people in employment.
The government stands ready to support the adjustment to a new relationship with the European Union and is committed to building an economy that works for all.”
Hopefully they didn’t send the wrong email out...
@BenChu_ @Gilesyb @hmtreasury Do you think they sent the labour market one? Tomorrow we'll get something tell us not to worry about sterling
— Jake Cordell (@JakeCordell) October 18, 2016
We’ll find out tomorrow morning, after the unemployment report is released....
Updated
Pound rallies close to $1.23
Sterling is still rallying today, following the news that inflation jumped by more than expected last month.
The pound has gained more than one cent to $1.229, the highest since last Wednesday.
Traders ponder whether growth is going to suffer, and if the Bank of England will really ‘look through’ (ignore) the inflationary impact of the Brexit vote.
Kallum Pickering of Berenberg Bank reckons that the Bank will resist cutting interest rates to new record lows in November.
The bigger-than-expected drop in sterling has done a lot of the work for the Bank of England and with resilient economic performance since the Brexit vote, we expect the BoE to stay on hold for now, easing monetary policy again only if economic conditions deteriorate.
This week's jump of 1.22% in the price of petrol is the biggest since the #EURef (and also the biggest since Jan 2011). pic.twitter.com/t9Xg4VmZ1u
— Ian Jones (@ian_a_jones) October 18, 2016
Here’s a link to the inflation report:
ONS: UK consumer price inflation: Sept 2016
Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC (and former Bank of England policymaker) also predicts inflation is going to jump over the 2% target.
And that ‘inflationary iceberg’ is going to hit growth in 2017, he fears:.
“Inflation has risen to 1.0 percent this month, as expected. Higher import prices are feeding through to consumers because of the fall in sterling since the EU referendum vote. This latest rise, however, is just the tip of the inflationary iceberg which is coming our way. Since the beginning of September, sterling has fallen a further 8 percent or so against the euro and the dollar. This will continue to push up inflation in the months ahead. A stronger oil price will add further to price rises for energy and transport.
“Over the course of next year, we should expect inflation to rise above the Bank of England’s 2 percent target. This will squeeze household spending power and add to the slowdown in the economy in 2017. PwC is forecasting a slowdown in growth to around 1% next year, with investment cutbacks reinforcing the slowdown in consumer spending.”
Updated
UK factory gate prices hit 3-year high
We also have evidence that UK manufacturers are pushing up their prices, following the slide in sterling.
Factory gate prices (what companies charge for their goods) rose by 1.2% in September, the highest annual rise in three years.
And input prices (the cost of raw materials) jumped by 7.2% year-on-year
That suggests that consumers will face higher prices when these goods reach the shops, says Shilen Shah, Bond Strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment:
“The September inflation print is a confirmation that the long period of low inflation is over, with year-on-year CPI increasing to 1% from 0.6% in August. The combination of higher input prices -rising 7.2% in September and a higher oil price is likely to put some upward pressure on future inflation prints in the coming months.
Julien Lafargue, the head of equities strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank, isn’t convinced that the weak pound is driving up inflation. Not yet, anyway ...
We are seeing more and more signs that inflation is picking up in the UK, with today’s release pointing to the highest year-on-year increase in consumer prices since November 2014. At this point though, this seems more linked to base effects from commodity prices, a continued decline in the pace of food deflation and higher prices in restaurant and hotels following a weak August, rather than the post-referendum drop in the pound.
As such, we would expect inflation to increase further going forward, as the depreciation in the UK’s currency will likely put additional upward pressure on prices over time.
Updated
Fidelity: plummeting pound drives up fuel prices
Tom Stevenson, an investment director at Fidelity International, blames the weak pound for driving up inflation:
Inflation jumped to 1% in September, its highest level since late 2014. The significant leap in the CPI from August has primarily been as a result of the plummeting pound, which has pushed up fuel prices.
Today’s report shows that petrol prices jumped by 1.2p per litre between August and September.
Updated
Lots of expert reaction to today’s inflation numbers is flooding in.
Nick Dixon, the investment director at pensions group Aegon, reckons inflation will soar above the 2% target soon.
The renewed slide in the pound following ‘hard Brexit’ noise will flow through to higher inflation, potentially exceeding 3% during 2017.
Updated
Inflation: snap reaction
At 1%, inflation is only half the level targeted by the Bank of England.
But several economists warn that prices are heading upwards.
World First’s Jeremy Cook predicts more inflationary pain in early 2017:
Inflation will be felt more keenly in CPI post Xmas; no retailer wants to hike prices now and hedges on currency are still largely in place
— World First (@World_First) October 18, 2016
Reuters’ Jamie McGeever thinks the weak pound and higher energy prices will keep pushing the CPI up:
UK inflation. Still well below the Bank of England's target ... but not for long, given the pound's plunge and oil price rise this year. pic.twitter.com/CpgM7rAzsg
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) October 18, 2016
Joel Hills of ITV also blames the weak pound:
Higher than expected jump in inflation. Prices now rising in-line with wages. Impact of slump in £ post referendum starting to be felt.
— Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) October 18, 2016
George Eaton of the New Statesman points out that families relying on welfare payments will suffer:
Higher inflation (now 1%) will bite hard with benefits still frozen.
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) October 18, 2016
Updated
There’s been a lot of talk about food prices being pushed up by the weak pound.
But ... prices actually fell by 0.3% month on month in September.
The ONS said this fall was driven by “sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery, oils and fats, meat, and bread and cereals”.
But fruit and vegetable prices rose, including potatoes.
Updated
Why inflation jumped to 1%
Clothes prices went up by 6% in September on the previous month.
That’s a larger move than usual, although clothing prices normally rise in September as shops bring in autumn ranges.
So does that mean the Brexit vote is forcing prices up?
Possibly not. The Office for National Statistics suggests that UK companies are protected from the slump in the pound.
First, a rise in clothing prices in September is in line with normal trends and the comparatively large increase this year follows a sustained fall in prices between March and July, with a relatively small increase into August. Second, while the depreciation in sterling is likely to increase the cost of importing goods and outsourcing production, there are reports of businesses having measures in place to protect against exchange rate changes in the short term.
Other reasons why inflation jumped:
- Restaurant and hotel prices increased by 0.7% between August and September.
- Miscellaneous goods and services prices rose by 0.5% between August and September, driven by “certain appliances and products for personal care”.
- Overall prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels went up by 0.1% between August and September.
Updated
The retail price index, a wider measures of inflation that includes housing costs, has also risen.
RPI hit an annual rate of 2% last month, up from 1.8% in August.
CPI inflation up from 0.6% to 1%, RPI inflation to 2% from 1.8%.
— David Smith (@dsmitheconomics) October 18, 2016
This jump in inflation is going to hit people in the pocket.
Average earnings are only rising by 2.1% per year, according to the latest data. With inflation at 1%, real wages would only grow by 1.1%.
This chart shows how the cost of living is rising at the fastest rate since late 2014.
Updated
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in September.
The Office for National Statistics says there is no ‘explicit evidence’ that the fall in the pound is pushing consumer prices higher (more on that shortly...)
Updated
UK inflation was driven up by rising prices for clothing, overnight hotel stays and motor fuels, says the Office for National Statistics.
These upward pressures were partially offset by a fall in air fares and food prices, the ONS adds.
UK inflation rises to 1%
Breaking: The UK consumer price index jumped to 1% in September, higher than the City expected!
That’s the highest inflation rate since November 2014, and sharply up on August’s figure of 0.6%.
More to follow ...
Updated
Today’s inflation report will only be a foretaste of the full impact of the weaker pound, says the economist Rupert Seggins:
Expectations are that today's figures show a rise in UK inflation to c.0.9%, but the main exchange rate impact is likely some months away. pic.twitter.com/Jw1rNBMgKE
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) October 18, 2016
Updated
Less than 30 minutes until we get the latest UK inflation report!
Reminder: we’re expecting the cost of living to have jumped by 0.9% in September, a near two-year high.
Jeremy Cook of currency exchange company World First explains how energy costs are pushing consumer prices higher:
The main piece of UK news this morning is the latest run of inflation data that is set to carry higher to as much as 0.9% on the year. That would be the highest since November 2014, when oil prices were still up near $90 a barrel. A year ago, oil prices were about 20% cheaper than they are now and therefore we have base effects there to take into account, but both consumer and producer price inflation measures seem to be showing the effects of the weaker pound.
Inflation expectations for the medium term – five years away – have surged in recent weeks and are currently 3.4%; anything that starts with a four and we can expect [that] calls for the Bank of England to hike rates will increase, needlessly in our opinion.
Updated
The pound has rallied a little this morning, and is currently up 0.5% at $1.225.
However... that still means sterling is worth 21% than a year ago (when it traded at $1.55).
That’s a remarkable drop, only challenged by emerging market currencies like Malawi’s Kwacha, or the battered Venezuelan boliva.
Among the world’s worst-performing currencies, the British pound ranks alongside the Haitian gourde https://t.co/EesuqwF7O1 pic.twitter.com/qlGNPpmu6I
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 18, 2016
Hiring fell sharply in London after the EU referendum, as financial and construction companies hunkered down, according to recruiter Hays.
It reported a 10% drop in fees in the UK and Ireland in the previous quarter, as “continued concerns about the economic outlook impacted client and candidate confidence”.
Updated
Budget airline Ryanair was a strong supporter of the remain campaign and even offered cheap flights to expats who wanted to fly back and vote in the EU referendum.
That didn’t swing the result, though. And this morning, the company said the slump in sterling would hit its earnings.
Ryanair now expects full-year profit growth of 7%, down from 12% earlier this year.
Updated
Gerald Lyons, a former chief economic adviser to (Burberry model) Boris Johnson, also expects UK inflation to rise this morning.
Few factors look set to push #inflation up: last year's fall in energy prices set to fall out of annual comparison; weaker £; oil prices up
— Gerard Lyons (@DrGerardLyons) October 18, 2016
We know from experience - and as Bank of England says in Inflation Reports - food & petrol prices are often quickest to react to £'s moves
— Gerard Lyons (@DrGerardLyons) October 18, 2016
As @albrummer calls it: often a Feather & Rocket approach: benefits of cost cuts passed on slowly, rises passed on like a rocket into prices
— Gerard Lyons (@DrGerardLyons) October 18, 2016
Updated
Burberry shares slide despite boost from sterling
The weak pound has been a boon to fashion group Burberry.
It has reported a 30% jump in sales of luxury goods in the UK in the past six months, as the fall of sterling lured more foreign visitors to Britain.
However, the Burberry chief executive, Christopher Bailey, warned that the “external environment” remains challenging. Underlying retail sales fell by 2%, while underlying wholesale revenues dropped by 14%.
And the City isn’t happy; Burberry shares have slumped by 7% in early trading.
Updated
Kathleen Brooks of City Index suspects that UK inflation may have jumped by more than the City consensus of 0.9%.
She says:
We believe that the risks are to the upside, as the large decline in the pound starts to hit consumers in the pocket ...
This is the worst time for inflation to rear its head – just as Brexit concerns dim the economic outlook.
Updated
The slump in the pound has caused real pain in Britain’s food markets, as well as the financial markets.
The BBC’s Colletta Smith reports that traders at Manchester’s New Smithfield Wholesale Market have been hit hard by weaker sterling, putting pressure on them to raise prises.
This is Brian. The king of fish here at Manchester's Smithfield market for 40 yrs. says traders are being hammered by falling £ #inflation pic.twitter.com/X41v7G5pOH
— Colletta Smith (@collettasmith) October 18, 2016
Anne Dennis told me on @bbc5live she's thinking of giving up her wholesale stall as margins are so tight #inflation pic.twitter.com/tX3br7zRpi
— Colletta Smith (@collettasmith) October 18, 2016
Updated
Analysts: City investors are worried about inflation
Today’s UK inflation report will be very closely watched in the City.
If consumer prices jumped sharply in September, the Bank of England could be deterred from cutting interest rates at its next meeting in early November. That could help the pound rally (although not if traders worry about the health of the economy).
But higher inflation will worry bond traders. Yesterday, the value of some UK government debt (gilts) hit the lowest level since the EU referendum in June, suggesting that investors are worried about the UK’s economic prospects.
Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at Think Markets UK, explains:
Fears that inflation may be rising at a much faster pace is something that is making the headlines over and over again.
This is especially more relevant when we focus on the UK’s economy, where the sudden fall in the currency is making an impact on the UK gilt market. What investors are most worried about is how quickly these UK gilt yields are rising, and this is eroding any remaining confidence among investors.
Updated
The agenda: UK inflation expected to rise
Good morning.
After weeks of headlines about the tumbling pound, we’re about to discover what impact it has had on families and businesses.
September’s inflation report, due at 9.30am, is expected to show that prices jumped last month, as the cost of imports was driven up by weaker sterling.
Economists believe the consumer price index (CPI) could rise as high as 0.9%, from 0.6% in August. That would drive up the cost of living and eat into real wages.
The recent rise in the oil price is also a factor, pushing up the cost of petrol at the pumps.
Howard Archer, the chief UK and European economist at IHS Markit, sets the scene:
Inflation is expected to have been lifted in September by higher petrol prices and by some services companies and manufacturers raising their prices, as a consequence of increased input costs resulting from sterling’s overall substantial weakening.
Last week’s row between Tesco and Unilever (over proposed price rises for Marmite, Pot Noodle, Lynx deodorant etc) has highlighted the pressures cause by sterling’s tumble to record lows since the Brexit vote.
Some analysts fear that prices are going to keep rising until the end of next year, as the effect of the cheaper pound feeds through to the UK economy.
The Office for National Statistics will also release new “producer prices” figures at 9.30am, showing how much British firms are paying for raw materials. That could reveal a chunky rise.
Also coming up today ...
The latest US inflation report is released at 1.30pm BST (8.30am EDT). Economists expect the CPI to rise to 1.5% from 1.1%, putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.
And we get corporate results from fashion chain Burberry, budget airline Ryanair and recruitment group Hays. They should all have something to say about business conditions since the Brexit vote.
Updated
