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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden (until 1.30pm) and Nick Fletcher

Poor households hit hard as UK inflation sticks at five-year high - as it happened

A shopping trolley with groceries is pushed around a supermarket in London, UK.
A shopping trolley with groceries is pushed around a supermarket in London, UK. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

European markets end lower

A stronger euro following positive eurozone growth figures helped undermine European markets, while Wall Street fell back on concerns about the Republican’s tax plans and the prospect of rising interest rates.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 outperformed other major indices, despite a fall in mining companies as commodity prices lost ground on weak Chinese data. The UK index was helped by positive performances from Vodafone following its results and Tesco after its takeover of Booker was cleared by competition authorities. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished down 0.01% at 7414.42
  • Germany’s Dax dropped 0.31% to 13,033.48
  • France’s Cac closed 0.49% lower at 5315.58
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 0.63% to 22,297.08
  • Spain’s Ibex ended down 0.59% at 9990.4
  • But in Greece, the Athens market added 0.38% to 720.18

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 72 points or 0.3% lower.

On that note it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Bank of England's Cunliffe - wait for wage growth before raising rates

When the Bank of England raised interest rates earlier this month, two members of its monetary policy committee voted to keep them on hold.

In a speech to the Oxford Economics Society one of them, Sir Jon Cunliffe, has been explaining his reasoning. His decision came because of uncertainty around the relationship between pay and unemployment, which is an important guide to domestic inflationary pressures. He said:

Given the uncertainties … and the serial disappointments we have had in recent years in forecasting the impact of unemployment on pay growth, there is, in my view, a not immaterial risk that the trade-off is not as it currently appears and that domestic inflation pressure will undershoot the Committee’s collective expectation.

In my view, the low level of domestic pressure on inflation now, the absence of second round effects from the depreciation of sterling, and inflation expectations around their historical averages, make it possible to wait before tightening policy until there is clear evidence that pay growth is responding to the level of unemployment in line with our forecast.

He said that the apparent disappearance of the link between pay and unemployment was one of the key puzzles of the post recovery economy in the UK and in advanced economies. He said:

Some of the relationships between economic variables that we depended on in the past appear to have gone on a longish leave of absence, but we are not sure why, or whether this is a temporary or more persistent departure.

Against that background – and although it makes forward-looking monetary policy more difficult – I tend to put more weight on the evidence we can or cannot see in the data, and a little less on the un-observables and on how we think the economy works.

He also emphasised that his decision did not anticipate any particular Brexit outcome:

We can, in my view, only work on what we see in the economy now, and stand ready to respond as necessary as Brexit emerges.

Sir Jon Cunliffe
Sir Jon Cunliffe Photograph: Jonathan Brady/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Gocompare rejects Zoopla bid approach

Gocompare.com, the price comparison website spun out of esure a year ago has rejected a takeover bid from property group ZPG, owner of Zoopla.

ZPG offered 110p a share, valuing Gocompare at nearly £420m, but its target said the offer fundamentally undervalued its business.

Gocompare shares jumped nearly 10% to 102p on the news, while ZPG added 0.4% to 338p.

Over in Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras has taken many by surprise with an announcement that his government will distribute €1.4bn worth of welfare handworks to citizens worst hit by cuts in the coming weeks. Helena Smith reports from Athens:

Attempting to repeat his politically adroit gesture of handing out pre-Christmas ‘gifts’ last year, the leftist leader said the Greek economy had done so well his government had decided to distribute € 1.4bn from the primary surplus it had posted in 2017.

In a televised address that took many by surprise, Tsipras said the government had decided to more than double the amount it would distribute in the form of a one-off “social dividend” in December.

Among those entitled to the handout would be citizens worst hit by austerity, including low-income pensioners and unemployed.

“We are in the very pleasant position of being better prepared and more organised to offer an even bigger amount … to the people who need it most,” he said.

Tsipras.
Tsipras. Photograph: Costas Baltas/Reuters

Because the debt-stricken country had beaten fiscal bailout targets mandated by international creditors keeping it afloat, €720m of the primary surplus would go towards buttressing households earning less than €18,000 annually, the equivalent of around 3.4 million people, he said.

Another €360m would be given to Greece’s public power corporation to protect poorer consumers from tariff increases while €315m would alleviate “unfair” health insurance payments previously incurred by pensioners.

The leftist-led coalition is hoping to make a “clean exit” from international supervision when its third EU-IMF funded bailout officially expires next summer.

But critics today were quick to accuse Tsipras of dangerous populism with the main opposition New Democracy party saying the measures were the price of over-taxation that had otherwise killed the economy and as such were tantamount to taking from Peter to give to Paul.

Stock markets are under pressure at the moment, with worries about the Trump tax plans, a stronger euro and declines in commodities combining to send shares lower. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:

The euro seemed to be the only real winner this Tuesday, with the currency managing a robust rise as seemingly everything else fell.

The Dow Jones joined in with the wider decline after the bell. The US index dropped nearly 150 points, hitting a fortnightly low as it struggles to keep its head above 23300 due to doubts about Donald Trump’s tax plan.

One of the main drivers of UK trading this Tuesday was the commodity sector. Brent Crude fell 1.1% on increased output in the US, while copper plunged 2% as China’s manufacturing production slipped from 6.6% to a worse than forecast 6.2% month-on-month. This all sparked a 2.5%-3% dive from the likes of Rio Tinto, Anglo American and BHP Billiton, with BP also falling 0.7%, preventing the FTSE – which is down 0.2% – from enjoying sterling’s sharp decline against the euro.

It’s safe to say the Eurozone indices are not best pleased with the euro’s recent comeback. The currency is looking pretty buff this Tuesday, surging 0.7% against the pound and 0.8% against the dollar thanks to a mixture of strong GDP and ZEW economic sentiment readings, and the various issues plaguing its rivals. This meant that the DAX shed another 80 points, leaving the German bourse at a fresh near 3 week nadir. The CAC, meanwhile, lost 0.6%, with the Spanish IBEX dropping under 10000 following a 0.8% decline.

UK households unable to save for emergencies, MPs told

Falling real pay, higher housing costs, and cuts to benefits are limiting the ability of UK households to save money for emergencies and retirement, MPs on the Treasury Select Committee have been told.
In the first session of the committee’s inquiry into household finances, Torsten Bell, director of the Resolution Foundation, said family budgets were being constrained as wages in real terms are £15 a week lower than they were before the financial crisis.
“In those circumstances - and housing costs have gone up quite a lot during that phase - then obviously people are finding it hard to save,” Bell said.
He added that many low to middle income families say that while they’d like to save £10 or more a month, they cannot afford to do so.

Updated

Wall Street opens lower

US markets are heading lower in early trading, on continuing concerns about the Republican tax plans. Investors are also worried that further interest rate rises - with another expected next month - could harm the economic recovery.

Weaker than expected Chinese data overnight also added to the downbeat mood.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down52 points or 0.22% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both opened 0.35% lower.

The pound remains weaker against both the dollar and euro.

The stronger than expected US producer prices figures are supporting the US currency, with the pound now down 0.05% at $1.3108.

Against the euro, sterling has slipped 0.8% to €1.1151 following positive economic news from the eurozone, including 2.5% GDP year on year growth in the three months to September.

US producer prices rise by more than expected

Over in the US, and producer prices climbed by more than expected in October.

The month on month figure rose by 0.4%, the same figure as in September but higher than the forecast 0.1%. On a yearly basis, prices were up 2.8% compared to expectations of a 2.4% rise and a 2.6% increase in September.

The figures add more weight to the idea of another rate rise by the Federal Reserve in December.

Updated

UK house prices continued to climb in September, according to separate figures released by the ONS.

Prices increased by 5.4% in the year to September 2017, up from 4.8% in the year to August. The ONS said the annual growth rate had slowed since the middle of 2016 but remained around 5% during 2017.

But there are further signs of cooling in London, which showed the lowest annual growth rate in the country at 2.5%.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club, said housing market activity was being hit by weaker consumer purchasing power and wariness over making major transactions. He said:

We see house prices being muted over the fourth quarter and then rising a modest 2%-3% in 2018.

The fundamentals for house buyers are likely to remain challenging over the coming months with consumers’ purchasing power continuing to be squeezed by inflation running higher than earnings growth.

Additionally, housing market activity is likely to be hampered by fragile consumer confidence and limited willingness to engage in major transactions. It is also very possible that the recent Bank of England interest rate hike will weigh down on housing market activity.

While the increase in interest rates was just 0.25% and mortgage rates are still at historically very low levels - with the impact further limited by the fact that the share of mortgages on variable rates has fallen to around 40% from a peak of 70% in 2001 - the fact that it was the first rise in interest rates since 2007 could have a significant effect on housing market psychology by focusing minds on the likelihood that households will have to deal with higher mortgage rates over the coming months and years.

Having said that, the Bank of England again stressed that interest rates will rise only gradually and to a limited extent.

Updated

Lunchtime summary: Has inflation peaked?

Time for a quick recap.

Britain’s inflation rate remains at its highest level since 2012, putting more pressure on people hit by the real wage squeeze.

The consumer prices index rose by 3% in October, matching September’s reading. Although over the UK’s target, it is a little less than economists – and the Bank of England itself – had forecast.

Food prices are playing a key role driving CPI up, with food price inflation hitting 4.1%.

Inflation is hitting poorer families hardest, says the Resolution Foundation. That’s because the cost of essential items is pushing higher.

Some economists are predicting that inflation may now be peaking. That would bring some relief to families. But until wages rise faster, Britain’s cost of living squeeze will continue.

Unions are pushing the government to relax the public sector pay cap, to help teachers, nurses et al recover from years of austerity.

UNISON general secretary Dave Prentis says workers are under financial pressure:

“The government needs to take action in next week’s budget, ensure the pay cap is lifted and give public service employees a decent wage rise.”

Here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on today’s figures:

Over in Frankfurt, the Bank of England’s governor has spoken about Brexit....

The jump in food price inflation to 4.1% may drive more families to Britain’s growing roster of food banks.

Garry Lemon of the Trussell Trust, a charity which runs food bank, says it’s already an issue:

Several City economists are predicting that inflation may now have peaked, having stuck at 3% last month.

The theory is that the impact of the pound’s Brexit-induced tumble will fade out of the annual inflation figures before much longer. And with the economy weak, it will be hard for retailers to hike prices.

However, food prices may still keep rising over the next few months.

Stephen Oldfield, Agri-Food leader at PwC, fears that prices may accelerate before Christmas, making the festive season a little less jolly.

Oldfield says:

“This food cost inflation has yet to fully come through to prices on the shelves – the recent inflation figures for the UK were 3%, with food a main contributor.

But that still doesn’t fully reflect the costs rises, so we expect food prices to continue to rise during the final quarter of 2017. One of the reasons for this is the time lag, as costs rise in terms of feeding through the food chain from importers to suppliers to supermarkets themselves.

And Stuart Law, CEO of peer-to-peer lender Assetz Capital, reckons savers still face meagre returns.

“It is likely that inflation has peaked at 3%, but will fall very slowly over the next year or two. This will provide little comfort to those losing money every day on their savings where the bank’s rate of interest is less than inflation.

“The recent base rate rise will have also driven up borrowing costs, whilst not passing much on to savers so, with inflation perhaps falling slowly now from 3%, this rise may have been implemented prematurely.”

With wages rising at little more than 2%, and inflation at 3%, Christmas will be a squeeze for many families.

Hannah Maundrell, editor in chief of money.co.uk, has some advice for coping with the cost of living:

  • check you’re on a fixed rate energy tariff (one that guarantees the price you pay per unit) and if not switch
  • shop around for food and fuel so you’re not paying any more than you need to
  • check whether you could cut your mortgage repayments by switching to a fixed rate deal if you’re on your lender’s SVR

Here’s more details from Resolution’s Stephen Clarke on how inflation is hurting poorer households:

“While the headline rates of inflation remained unchanged, the drivers of inflation have continued to shift – and are hitting less well-off families particularly hard.

“Food and drink prices increased faster than at any point in the last four years, while clothing prices also rose at a rate above overall inflation. The rising cost of these basic items affects low and middle income households far more than better-off households, who are also being cushioned by static fuel costs.

“With prices rising far quicker than wages, it is vital that the Chancellor keeps in mind the double whammy of squeezed pay packets and frozen benefits when he announces his Budget next week.”

Updated

Lower-income households hurt by inflation

Stephen Clarke of the Resolution Foundation has interrogated today’s data, and shown that poorer households are suffering particularly badly from the surge in inflation.

That’s because essential items, such as food, are rising sharply in price. Higher energy bills also hit families across the board.

In contrast, the cost of ‘non-essentials’ such as hotels and restaurants was more subdued last month.

Plus, the recent drop in petrol prices is welcome if you own a car, but not if you can’t afford one...

Updated

A Treasury spokesperson says the government is trying to fight the cost of living squeeze:

“We understand that people are concerned about increases in everyday costs. That’s why we have cut taxes and introduced the National Living Wage, which has lifted the wages of the lowest paid by over 6% above inflation.

It’s also why we are bringing in an energy cap to help people with the cost of household bills.”

The jump in food and drink prices are a particularly blow for the poorest in society (as everyone has to eat).

So even if inflation peaks soon, the cost of living squeeze could continue for a while.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, explains:

“With monthly inflation gradually moderating, households will be relieved that the UK may have now reached the peak in year-on-year price rises.

However, the overall figures mask significant increases in the price of basic necessities such as fruit and vegetables, which are most likely to hit those already struggling to cope with the squeeze on real incomes due to the high inflation.

Labour MP Chuka Umunna
Labour MP Chuka Umunna Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Labour MP Chuka Umunna says the “ongoing Brexit chaos” is hitting people in their pockets.

“Not only is inflation continuing to run well above the Bank of England’s target, at 3%, but the inflation rate for food and drink has increased to 4.1%, the highest since September 2013.

“People are feeling the Brexit squeeze as real wages contract and everyday items become more and more expensive. Nobody voted in the referendum to make themselves poorer, so people have every right to look at the impact Brexit is having on their finances and ask themselves whether the realities of Brexit match up with what they were promised. If not, everyone has the right to change their mind.

Did Bank of England raise interest rates too early?

On one level, today’s inflation reading is a relief to the Bank of England.

The BoE is responsible for maintaining price stability. So governor Mark Carney won’t have to write a letter explaining why CPI has deviated more than 1 percentage point away from the 2% target.

But.... the Bank expected inflation to push over 3% this autumn, when it raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% two weeks ago.

If inflation isn’t as strong as feared, has the Bank blundered by hiking borrowing costs, at a time when consumers are cautious and economic growth is slow?

Inflation is measured across a number of areas. And this chart neatly shows how transport (yellow) and food (blue) have driven inflation higher this year.

In 2016, they both pulled the cost of living down (as you can see, they’ve below zero), but this year they have both become significant contributors.

Alistair Wilson, Head of Retail Platform Strategy at Zurich, sees some light at the end of the living squeeze tunnel:

“Higher inflation is creating a living standards headache for families as prices continue to rise faster than their pay packets.

However, there are signs that the worst of the squeeze on family finances may be coming to an end with British workers set for the biggest pay rises since before the financial crisis, likely to increase by between 2.5% and 3.5% next year.

TUC: Britain needs a pay rise

At 3%, Britain’s inflation rate is outstripping pay rises - -which only rose by 2.1% over the last year.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady says the government needs to take action -- and next week’s budget is the perfect opportunity.

“The government must stop turning a blind eye to Britain’s cost of living crisis. Household budgets are being stretched to breaking point.

“Wages will continue to lag behind inflation unless the Chancellor acts.

“Next week’s Budget is a chance to give five million public sector workers the pay rise they are long overdue. And its a chance to invest in the kind of high-skilled jobs people can live on.”

Chart: Why inflation is at a five-year high

Housing and household service costs made the biggest contribution to Britain’s inflation last month.

That’s due to electricity price rises, and increases in council tax over the last couple of years.

Food was another key factor (as explained earlier), along with transport costs (even though fuel prices have dipped recently)

UK inflation chart

Brexit blamed for high UK inflation

The jump in inflation over recent months is clearly a blow to UK consumers, even though October’s reading isn’t as bad as feared.

Thomas Wells, manager of the Smith & Williamson Global Inflation-Linked Bond Fund, says households are still suffering the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit vote:

“UK inflation remains elevated, in line with our expectations. We continue to view the post-referendum weakness in sterling as the key driver of the recent spike in inflation, putting pressure on household budgets.

“This is unquestionably bad for consumers, especially when combined with the recent increase in interest rates pushing up mortgage repayments. We therefore expect conditions to remain tough, putting downward pressure on demand, and hence inflation, over the next six months.

The cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rocketed by 4.1% over the last 12 months -- helping to keep overall inflation high.

Chart: UK inflation in detail
Chart: UK inflation in detail Photograph: ONS

Here’s a chart showing how UK inflation is running at a five-year high this autumn:

The UK inflation rate

Food prices are keeping inflation high

  • Rising food prices kept Britain’s inflation rate at 3% last month.

  • The Office for National Statistics reports that food prices jumped across “all main classes of product” including dairy products, which have seen recent wholesale shortages

  • ONS Head of Inflation Mike Prestwood says:

  • “Inflation remains at a five year high with rising food prices offset by a fall in the cost of fuel.“The rise in the cost of raw materials and goods leaving factories both slowed, with crude oil and petroleum prices both increasing less than at this time last year.

    • Updated

    UK INFLATION RELEASED

    Breaking! Britain’s inflation rate has stuck at 3.0% in October, matching September’s five-year high.

    That means there’s no let-up in the cost of living squeeze hitting UK households.

    On the upside, City economists had feared the consumer prices index would have risen even higher, to 3.1%.

    More to follow!

    Updated

    Here we go....

    Italian economy beats forecasts with 0.5% growth

    Italians didn’t have much to cheer about during last night’s football. But this morning’s economic data is a whole new ball game!

    Italy’s economy expanded by 0.5% in the third quarter of this year, ahead of expectations for a 0.4% rise.

    That matches France’s performance, and is slightly faster than the UK.

    After several sluggish years, Italy’s economy does seem to have shifted up a gear in the last few quarters:

    The Netherlands economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter, new figures show. That’s in line with forecasts:

    Economist Rupert Seggins has tweeted some useful charts ahead of today’s UK inflation data, due in 30 minutes:

    German GDP shows 'changing of the guard'

    Here’s Kit Juckes of French bank Société Générale on today’s German growth figures:

    Europe’s economic heart is pumping away and a 0.8% Q3 q/q GDP gain in Germany threatens to nudge the Eurozone growth rate up too. It’s a reminder of the changing of the guard as the US economic cycle ages.

    Tesco executives might be reaching for a bottle of Finest fizz later; they’ve just been given a provisional green light to buy cash-and-carry group Booker.

    The UK’s competition authorities have concluded that the deal won’t mean higher prices or a poorer service for shoppers.

    Tesco shares have jumped by 5% to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as investors wager that the Booker deal will help its turnaround plan.

    Updated

    The ITV logo

    Over in the City, ITV has reported that TV ad revenue fell 7% in the first nine months of the year.

    The broadcaster expects improvement with a fall of 5% for the full year, as brands roll out big budget festive campaigns in the run up to Christmas.

    October will be down 1%, November up 2% and December up 1%. Peter Bazalgette, ITV chairman, said “some” grocers and consumer brands (like P&G and Unilever) are returning to TV advertising but the economy is still very uncertain.

    Updated

    The euro has hit a three-week high, on the back of Germany’s strong growth.

    The single currency has risen 0.3% to $1.17, its highest rate since 26th October (when the ECB decided to extend its stimulus programme into 2018)

    In another boost, Germany’s growth rate in the first three months of 2017 has been revised up to 0.9%.

    Today’s growth figures show that Germany remains “the high-flyer of the Eurozone”, say Carsten Brzeski of ING.

    He’s impressed that German GDP grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, writing:

    Never tired of good news? Then have a look at the latest German GDP data. The economy continues its golden cycle and staged yet another strong growth performance in the third quarter.....

    Growth was driven by public consumption, investment and net exports. Only the construction sector took a longer vacation break. Even if the economy would stagnate in the final quarter of the year, GDP growth for the entire year would still come in at 2.4%; the highest reading since 2011.

    German economy powers on with 0.8% growth

    The Reichstag, seat of the Bundestag, in Berlin.
    The Reichstag, seat of the Bundestag, in Berlin. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Boom! Germany’s economy has beaten expectations by growing twice as fast as the UK in the last quarter.

    German GDP expanded by 0.8% in July to September quarter, thanks to strong trade and investment figures. That beats expectations for 0.6% growth, and means Europe’s largest economy is having a very impressive year.

    In contrast, the UK grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, while France expanded by 0.5%.

    As Destatis, the German statistics office, puts it:

    “German economic growth continues at a high rate.

    Exporters put in another strong performance, meaning Germany shipped more to the rest of the world than it bought in.

    Destatis says:

    “Exports were stronger than imports in the third quarter. As a result, net exports had a positive impact on the GDP compared to the previous quarter.

    Investment in new machinery and equipment also rose, while government and consumer spending “remained rather stable”.

    The agenda: UK inflation

    The Union flag.

    Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

    Britain’s cost of living squeeze may hit a new five-year high today, as the weak pound continues to drive up prices in the shops.

    October’s consumer prices index is expected to hit 3.1%, up from September’s 3% and the highest level since March 2012.

    Economists say that rising food and energy prices will push inflation up. Sterling’s weakness - still down over 10% since the EU referendum in June 2016 - is another factor.

    This would bring more pain for households, as wage increases are running at just over 2%. It would also force Bank of England governor Mark Carney to write a letter of explanation to the UK chancellor, explaining why he’s failed to keep inflation close to the BoE’s 2% target.

    Also coming up today...

    New growth figures are expected to confirm that the eurozone economy grew by a punchy 0.6% in the third quarter of 2017. We also get individual figures from Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.

    The world’s four top central bankers are appearing at a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt. Mark Carney will join Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve, ECB chief Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan will all discuss “Communications challenges for policy effectiveness, accountability and reputation”.

    The agenda

    • 7am GMT: German GDP for the third quarter of 2017
    • 8.30am GMT: Dutch GDP figures for the third quarter of 2017
    • 9am GMT: Italian GDP for the third quarter of 2017
    • 9.30am GMT: UK inflation figures for October
    • 9.30am GMT: UK house price figures for September.
    • 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP growth figures for the third quarter of 2017
    • 10am GMT: Mark Carney, Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda speak at an event on central bank communication
    • 10am GMT: UK Treasury committee hearing on Household finances: income, saving and debt
    • 1.30pm GMT: US producer prices figures

    Updated

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