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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

FTSE 100 hits record closing high as Brexit rattles the pound - as it happened

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at today’s press conference in Washington.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at today’s press conference in Washington. Photograph: Yuri Gripas/Reuters

Closing summary

That’s all for tonight, as City traders catch a breather after another busy day.

Here’s a brief recap of the main events.

Britain’s FTSE 100 has closed at a new record high. The index of the biggest companies listed on the London stock market closed at 7,556, a gain of 0.3% today.

The pound has had a volatile day, as Brexit developments continued to buffet the currency. Sterling tumbled to a four-week low against the euro after the EU’s top negotiator warned that talks have hit deadlock.

But...the pound is staging a surprise rally tonight, on reports that Brussels might be open to a two-year transition deal.

The Financial Times has got hold of the draft conclusions of the upcoming EU summit, which show that leaders plan to approve internal discussions on a post-Brexit relationship with the UK.

The FT says:

It [the draft] suggests EU leaders will “reassess the state of progress” at a summit in December, and if sufficient progress is made, adopt additional guidelines for EU negotiators on a transition and future trade relations with the UK.

In a recognition of the progress made so far, the EU will attempt to be “fully ready for this scenario” by inviting Michel Barnier, its chief negotiator, to “start internal preparatory discussions” on a transition and the future relationship.

This has helped the pound to surge back again tonight....

Earlier, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said she couldn’t imagine how Britain could leave the EU without a deal. She warned that WTO rules wouldn’t provide protection for EU citizens in the UK, or Britons abroad, or give airlines the ability to keep flying back and forth.

Back in the UK, the Bank of England has flagged up that lenders are planning to cut back on consume credit availability. A new report also found that default rates on credit cards etc are rising.

There are also fresh signs that the UK housing market is slowing. Chartered surveyors have reported that sales and prices are cooling, with London worst affected. It could provide some much-needed help to those trying to get onto the housing ladder...

That’s all for tonight. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

The US stock market is continuing to rally tonight too; the S&P 500 just hit a new alltime high.

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange today.
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange today. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

Bitcoin is also surging in value tonight.

The digital currency just hit $5,388, which means it has gained more than 10% in just one day.

Jordan Hiscott, chief trader at ayondo markets, says Bitcoin continues to defy those who have claimed it will crash.

Confounding many financial experts, including Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high of $5,233, with robust speculative demand seen on the move through $5,000. The cryptocurrency success story continues, albeit for now, but just as an idea for basis, the asset is up 425% since the start of the year.

“The returns are truly remarkable, especially given the recent ban on Bitcoin trading in China, where demand had previously accounted for at least 10% of all global volumes.”

Mystery solved....

Hello..... the pound has suddenly reversed today’s losses, and is now slightly HIGHER against the US dollar for the day.

I can’t immediately see why.....

Readers may be looking at the FTSE 100 and wondering if they should be buying shares, or selling up.

I”m certainly not giving any investment advice.

So instead, here’s Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at financial services group Hargreaves Lansdown.

Factoring in earnings, from where we’re sitting valuations in the UK stock market look reasonable, neither particularly cheap, nor particularly expensive. That means in the short term the stock market can turn in either direction without defying the laws of statistics.

However there are some reasons to be positive. The global economy, driven by its largest contributor the US, is picking up, with even Europe seeing a renaissance. Interest rates remain low and the UK consumer remains resilient. Meanwhile in an environment where doom and gloom pervades market sentiment, any positive surprises could go a long way to boosting stock prices.

Khalaf also points out that the alternatives to the stock market aren’t too attractive, with interest rates at record lows. Property is also expensives -- and we saw this morning that chartered surveyors expect prices to fall in London in the coming months.

Khalaf concludes:

For long term investors the immediate direction of the stock market is of limited importance in any case, as what ultimately determines your wealth are the scores on the doors when you come to draw on your investment. History tells us that over a long time period, the stock market really comes into its own.’

Britain’s FTSE 250 index has also hit a record closing high.

The FTSE 250 contains medium-sized companies that aren’t big enough to make it into the FTSE 100, so is seen as a better gauge of the UK economy.

As it happens, today is the 25th anniversary of the FTSE 250’s creation. Back in 1992, the FTSE 250 was worth £98bn. It’s now more than quadrupled to over £450bn in 2017 this year

Energy companies also helped to push the FTSE 100 to tonight’s record peak.

Centrica and SSE, two of Britain’s biggest energy providers, both gained 2%, after it emerged that the government’s new price cap probably won’t come into effect until 2019.

Weak pound drives FTSE 100 to record high

Boom! Britain’s blue-chip stock market has hit a new all-time closing high.

The FTSE 100 has closed at 7556.24 points, up 22 points or 0.3%.

Multinational exporters led the rally, with luxury fashion chain Burberry gaining 2.6% and consumer goods group Unilever rising by around 2%. They will benefit from the drop in the pound today to a one-month low against the euro (see earlier post).

The FTSE 100 over the last decade
The FTSE 100 over the last decade Photograph: Thomson Reuters

This beats the FTSE 100’s previous closing high of 7,547 points set in June, but is still below the record intraday high of 7,598.99.

The rally was sparked by the fall in the pound this lunchtime, after the EU’s chief negotiator warned that Brexit talks were deadlocked.

A weaker sterling typically pushes up shares price in London, particularly for companies who make most of their money overseas.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says:

The continued ascent of the FTSE has had much to do with the negative effect of the disjointed Brexit negotiations, with daily updates seemingly highlighting just how unsuccessful the initial rounds of talks have been.

The current ‘deadlock’ shows little signs of being broken, with both sides unwilling to budge in their stance and combative positions. As time ticks on, the chance of a hard Brexit are heightened.

David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, adds:

The [FTSE 100’s] bullish move was achieved for the wrong reasons, as the dip in the pound on the back of the stalled Brexit talks helped the British index.

The FTSE 100’s rally is also part of a wider surge in global equities. MSCI’s All Country index has hit several record highs in recent weeks, as has America’s Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500

In fact, as I type, the Dow has just hit a new record - 22,872 points. It’s gained almost 25% in the last year.

Updated

Brexit uncertainty isn’t hurting Germany’s stock market. The DAX index, which contains the country’s largest companies, has just hit its highest-ever level.

Britain’s FTSE 100 could yet close at its highest ever level too, thanks to the drop in the pound today (as explained earlier)

Lagarde: No-deal Brexit is unimaginable

Q: What would be the economic impact on Europe if Britain left the European Union without a deal?

Christine Lagarde says she “just cannot imagine” that the UK would simply default to WTO rules after leaving the EU, because it would create so much disruption.

What would it mean for the people themselves, she asks. For the Europeans residing in the UK, the British living in Europe? WTO rules do not cover this.

She also points to airline landing rights as another area where WTO rules don’t apply [yesterday, Chancellor Philip Hammond suggested flights between the UK and EU could simply stop after Brexit]

Lagarde that this means a deal must be reached, as:

There is so much that has been brought together between the continent and the United Kingdom that it requires a very specific approach to reduce the uncertainty that is damaging [economic] potential.

Lagarde is asked about yesterday’s Fiscal Monitor, which argued that countries could raise taxes on the rich without hurting growth.

Q: Is this the best way to reduce inequality?

No, Lagarde replies. The most efficient way to reduce inequalities is to close the gender gap between men and women.

But yes, the Fiscal Monitor did show that taxes on the rich could be higher without damaging economic growth.

Updated

Lagarde has also dropped a heavy hint against trade protectionism.

Asked about Europe, Lagarde says it will be a “growth leader”.

Earlier this week the Fund raised its growth forecasts for the eurozone (but not for the UK)

Lagarde: Brexit transition period would help cut uncertainty

On Brexit, Christine Lagarde says Britain and Brussels need to provide more clarity and certainty.

She tells the IMF press conference in Washington that she hopes the negotiations can be concluded promptly. It is important to reduce the uncertainty that is worrying people, and put “people first and business second”.

Lagarde says she doesn’t know if the two-year transition period proposed by Theresa May in Florence will be agreed.

But she certainly believes that “clarity on the timetable” and “more certainty” on the three pillars of the agreement would help.

[Those pillars are Britain’s exit bill, how citizens rights will be protected, and how the Irish border will be managed after Brexit].

Q: Are you concerned that United States might withdraw from the NAFTA agreement? Would it be a Brexit-style event?

Lagarde says the Nafta talks are underway, so she doesn’t want to comment directly on it. She also doesn’t put it in the same category as Brexit.

She argues that it’s not unusual to ‘look under the skin’ of an agreement that has lasted for 20 years, given the changes seen in the last two decades.

Updated

On China, Lagarde welcomes recent moves by the Chinese central bank to reduce credit, to avoid an explosion of bad debt.

The continued reining in of credit in China, to control financial risks, would be ‘most welcome’ she adds.

Christine Lagarde points to Fintech as an opportunity. There are “all sorts of financial innovation and disruptions” she says (but she’s not specifically talking about Bitcoin).

She also warns that a ‘tightening of the financial markets’ could hurt emerging markets, if it sparks a capital outflow.

On trade, Lagarde says a “pickup of trade” is fuelling growth.

But rising inequality is a concern, which could hurt global growth.

Lagarde: We need a season of action to improve global economy

Christine Lagarde begins by quoting Percy Bysshe Shelley, who once declared “There is a harmony in autumn”.

There is also a harmony in the global economy today. Our goal is to turn that harmony into a season of action, Lagarde declares.

She says the global recovery is “stronger and more broadly based” than before, which is why the IMF raised its growth forecasts to 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2018.

But policymakers need to take the right decisions so that more people and more countries benefit from the recovery.

What does that mean? Lagarde says

1) Those with healthy economies should invest more in their own economies - including infrastructure spending, strengthening education, and helping more women into work

2) Other countries should focus on their fiscal position, and reduce debt as a percentage of GDP

Updated

IMF chief Christine Lagarde is giving her press conference in Washington now, at the Fund’s Annual Meeting. It’s being streamed live here.

My colleague Adam Vaughan has been looking into the government’s pledge to cap fuel bills, and reports:

The energy bills of 11m households will be capped for as long as five years under legislation put forward by government, which the Conservatives have said could save people up to £100 a year.

The draft energy bill compels regulator Ofgem to change the licence conditions for energy suppliers so that they are forced to cap electricity and gas prices.

The measure will apply to anyone on a standard variable tariff, the expensive plans that customers are moved to when cheaper, fixed deals end....

Here’s the full story:

Greece awaits IMF's verdict, and looks to Trump

Women in traditional outfits carry Greek national flag during the ceremony marking the 73rd anniversary of liberation of Athens from Nazi German troops in 1944, at the Acropolis, Athens, Greece, today
A ceremony marking the 73rd anniversary of liberation of Athens from Nazi German troops in 1944, at the Acropolis, Athens, Greece, earlier today Photograph: Alexandros Beltes/EPA

Over in Greece officials are anxiously awaiting this afternoon’s press conference by IMF chief Christine Lagarde after the Washington-based organisation predicted that the country’s primary surplus in 2018 will be much lower than that forecast by the EU.

Helena Smith reports from Athens

With the IMF raising the spectre of further austerity measures all eyes will be on Christine Lagarde this afternoon. In its fiscal monitor report Wednesday, the Washington-based body predicted that the primary surplus will come in around 2.2% of GDP next year - well short of the 3.5% forecast by the Greek government in the draft budget it has already tabled before parliament and by the EU.

There are mounting concerns in Athens - and other EU capitals - that Greece could be force to endure yet more budget cuts and tax increases to raise the extra €2.3bn or 1.3% of GDP.

The figures were released as feverish preparations get underway for the official White House visit which prime minister Alexis Tsipras will make next week. Much hangs on Tsipras’ talks with president Donald Trump, Greek officials say.

The October 17 talks, which took many by surprise, could play a decisive role in completing the country’s third and last bailout review. With the leftist-led government’s setting a ‘clean exit’ from the programme – and international supervision – by the summer of 2018, a great deal depends on the stance of the IMF.

Tsipras is expected to appeal to Trump to urge the organisation to show more flexibility on Greece so Athens can conclude the compliance review and ultimately fend for itself by returning to international capital markets. In return he will play up Greece’s crucial geopolitical role- at a time of ever worsening relations between the West and Turkey – by signing an array of bilateral defence agreements.

Before his election Trump had tweeted that he thought the Greeks “are wasting their time” staying in the euro zone. As the largest shareholder in the IMF, with a 17% share of the body’s voting power, the US has effective veto power over many of the IMF’s decision.

The Greek deputy defence minister Dimitris Vitsas flew to Washington at the weekend to prepare for the visit amid talk of Athens purchasing more F16 fighter jets from the US.

The news that the Brexit talks have hit a ‘very disturbing’ deadlock over Britain’s exit bill will not pleased the City, or the country’s bosses.

The lack of progress is not a great surprise, though, which explains why the pound didn’t fall more sharply (a one-month low against the euro is bad enough, though).

Shilen Shah, bond strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment, says investors will hope for a breakthough, fast.

“As expected, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator has confirmed that the EU and UK have not progressed far enough to move on to the next stage of discussions. Along with uncertainty on the future Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland border, both sides seem to have not found an agreement on the UK’s final bill.

“Following Barnier’s comments Sterling has weakened, with the risk that the deadlock could become permanent. Markets are however also likely to focus on his comments that “decisive progress” could be made by Christmas – limiting any sell-off in UK-related assets.”

Terry Scuoler, chief executive of EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, points out that firms need to know what will happen after March 2019 (when Britain’s EU membership is set to cease).

“The UK and EU negotiators all seem to agree that we need to move to some form of transition discussion. However, they’ve yet to fully grasp the need to do this quickly if they want to avoid damaging investment and industry’s prospects on both sides of the channel.

“Business is looking for clarity and a clear sign of goodwill on transitional arrangements, as it is in all our interests to ensure these are comprehensive and agreed, at least in principle, before the end of the year. The EU Council must show leadership next week and build on the Prime Minister’s constructive approach set out in her speech in Florence and move quickly to protect our collective economic interests.”

The drop in the pound is having its usual invigorating effect on the London stock market.

The FTSE 100 has gained 28 points, or 0.3%, to 7562. That means it’s less than 40 points off a new record high.

Shares in multinational companies listed in London usually typically rise when the pound falls, as it makes their overseas earnings more valuable in sterling terms.

Updated

Sterling hit by Brexit 'deadlock'

The pound has just dropped by half a cent against the US dollar, back below $1.32, as the Brexit negotiations continue to struggle.

Over in Brussels, EU negotiator Michel Barnier told reporters that talks over Britain’s divorce bill have reached deadlock, something he called ‘very disturbing’.

This means that it is too early to begin discussions over Britain’s future relationship with the European Union, Barnier warned.

David Davis, secretary of state for leaving the EU, argued that talks have ‘come a long way’. Barnier agreed that ‘decisive’ progress could be made before Christmas.

But traders reacted swiftly to the lack of progress, sending sterling down to a four-week low against the euro at €1.109.

The pound vs the euro over the last six months
The pound vs the euro over the last six months Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The pound also shed more than half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.315.

Andy Sparrow’s Politics Live blog has full details:

Britain’s banks have pulled a ‘spectacular’ u-turn by clamping down on credit, says Mark Dyason of the specialist lending broker, Thistle Finance.

Not so long ago they were lending left, right and centre at tantalising rates, and now they are turning the taps off with similar enthusiasm.

Some might accuse them of a mind-blowing myopia.

For consumers, money being as cheap as it has been is a double-edged sword. Initially, it enables people to keep their heads above water but then the rates on offer can encourage households to take on more than they can manage.

Default rates have risen

UK lenders have also seen a rise in customers defaulting on their debts.

That’s a sign that households are struggling as inflation outpaces wage growth.

The Bank of England says:

Default rates on credit card lending were reported to have increased slightly in Q3, while those on other unsecured lending increased significantly. A further slight increase was expected for credit card lending only in Q4.

Losses given default were reported to have increased slightly on credit card lending while remaining unchanged on other unsecured lending. Both were expected to be unchanged in Q4.

Any tightening of consumer credit is likely to hit spending, and thus economic growth, warns Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics:

Today’s figures show that lenders are heeding the Bank of England’s warnings not to be too reckless, says Capital Economics:

(The FPC is the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee, which told banks to set aside another £10bn to cover bad loans last month)

Economist Rupert Seggins tweets:

This chart confirms that UK lenders are putting a squeeze on consumer credit:

Bank of England credit conditions

The Bank of England has also found that banks are being more rigorous about approving applications for credit cards and other unsecured loans.

It says:

Lenders reported that the availability of unsecured credit to households decreased in Q3 and expected a significant decrease in Q4.

Credit scoring criteria for granting both credit card and other unsecured loans were reported to have tightened again in Q3, while the proportion of unsecured credit applications being approved fell significantly.

UK lenders plan biggest credit curb since 2008

Newsflash: British banks are planning to rein in consumer lending by the most since the financial crisis nearly a decade ago.

Lenders surveyed by the Bank of England say they expect to tighten loan availability over the next three months. That follows warnings that Britain’s debt mountain has risen to dangerous levels.

The BoE asked lenders if they expect to make more or less unsecured credit available in the next quarter. The question returned a net balance of -28.6, the lowest figure since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in autumn 2008.

That means that many more lenders expect to tighten lending rather than expand it.

Lenders also reported that they tightened credit over the summer, as this chart shows (see the second line).

Bank of England credit conditions survey

Back in July, the BoE warned that some lenders have been too reckless with their loans, particularly for credit cards and new car loans.

And last month, the Guardian ran an investigation into how the UK’s debts have risen sharply, and how it could create a new crisis.

Updated

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Bitcoin hits $5,000

Newsflash: Bitcoin has buffeted its way though the $5,000 mark for the first time ever.

It’s surged by 7% this morning, hitting $5,180 as traders send the cryptocurrency skyward.

Bitcoin has now shaken off its wobble last month; it briefly slumped below $3,000 in September after China announced a clampdown on digital currency exchanges.

Bitcoin’s meteoric rise (and occasional stumbles) have divided financial experts. Some traders believe it could be a new safe-haven in times of political and economic strife. Others, such as JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon, claim that it’s a fraud, and a bubble that will blow up eventually.

Updated

Several London-based surveyors have warned that the capital’s housing market is weakening.

Allan Fuller, a Putney-based estate agent, says Britain’s exit from the EU is one factor.

Buyers are cautious, Brexit and a government with little apparent direction are major factors that especially affect London sales, media predictions of values dropping erodes confidence in buyers.

Pimlico-based James Gubbins of Dauntons says talk of a house price correction is hitting confidence:

The market remained soft throughout the summer period and buyers are concerned that prices are now in decline.

Simon Aldous of Savills says prime London property is suffering the most.

Prices across prime London continue to soften, perhaps down 1 to 2 % over the last 3 months. Price falls have been greatest in central London at the top end of the market, probably back close to 2012 levels.

RICS also predicts that UK rents will rise by around 2% over the next year, but they’ll probably fall in London:

UK rent expectations

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, says there are two reasons why the UK housing market is cooling.

1) Affordability constraints are hitting the higher priced segments of the market. That is why prices dropped in London (where the average house costs around £470,000, more than double the national average), and in the South East.

2) The increased possibility that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in the next few months. That is making borrowers more nervous, with some staying on the sidelines until the situation is clearer.

Introduction: UK house market weakens

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Britain’s housing market is stalling as worries that interest rates could rise soon spook buyers.

Sales and inquiries from potential purchasers both fell “noticeably” in September, and see little evidence that the market will pick up soon.

That’s according to Britain’s chartered surveyors, who have given a rather downbeat assessment of the sector.

They report that price gauge for London remains “firmly negative”, and there are also signs that prices are cooling in the South East too, with talk that houses are simply over-priced.

In a new report, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors say:

The UK housing market continues to lack momentum in September, as demand from new buyers and sales fall again and the shift in interest rate expectations contributes to buyer caution in a slowing market,

However, Wales, the North West of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland all saw prices rise in September - reflecting regional disparities in the housing market.

UK house prices

Prices are expected to fall over next three months, and growth over the coming year is predicted to be the weakest since June 2016.

As RICS puts it:

The headline indicators on demand and sales both slipped deeper into negative territory, with this subdued picture anticipated to persist over the coming months.

Feedback from contributors suggests the recent shift in interest rate expectations may be contributing to the more cautious tone in market sentiment.

Estate agents are particularly downbeat about London’s prospects over the next year.

RICS says:

At the twelve month horizon, respondents do expect prices to increase in all areas, with London the sole exception. In the capital, twelve month expectations are now more downbeat than at any other point since this series was introduced in 2010.

This chart shows how prices in London are now lagging behind the rest of the country, having boomed earlier this decade:

UK house prices

It looks like another sign that the UK economy is cooling.

Also coming up today

The UK government is outlining plans for a ‘temporary’ energy price cap, as it tries to deliver on Theresa May’s pledge to end “rip-off” bills.

The Business department says the cap would run until 2020 (but might not get up and running until next year). A new draft bill will require regulator Ofgem to “consult and impose the cap as soon as practicable after the legislation is passed”. More on that shortly.

Broadcaster Sky, recruitment firm Hays and food wholesale group Booker are all reporting results this morning. Citigroup and JP Morgan kick off the bank reporting season this afternoon.

European markets are expected to open little-changed on last night’s close, after the US markets hit another record high.

We’ll also keep an eye on Washington, where the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are holding their Annual Meeting.

Here’s the agenda:

  • 9.30am: Bank of England publishes its latest credit conditions survey. That will show whether UK households and businesses are finding it harder to borrow money, and if lenders see any problems on the horizon .
  • 2.30pm: IMF managing director Christine Lagarde gives a press conference in Washington. Expect questions about the global economic outlook and inequality, after the Fund raised its growth forecasts earlier this week.
  • 3.30pm: European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is on an IMF/World Bank panel. He’ll be discussing “Rethinking Macro Policy”; timely, with central bankers facing pressure to unwind their stimulus programmes.

Updated

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