Closing post
Time to wrap up…
Britain’s stock markets has jumped to a new all-time high today, led by a rally in pharmaceuticals stocks.
The FTSE 100 share index has climbed by 96 points through the day to close at 9446 points, a new peak, extending its gains for this year to around 15%.
Drugs makers rallied on relief that Donald Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on branded drugs, which were due to come in today, may not be as bad as feared.
AstraZeneca surged by over 11%, reclaiming its crown as the most valuable company listed in London, with GSK (+6.1%) and Hikma (+5.7%) close behind on the FTSE 100 leaderboard.
London investors shrugged off concerns over the US government shutdown which began this morning, and some worrying jobs data from America.
Payroll operator ADP reported that US private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, far below economists’ expectations of 51,000 jobs added.
This surprisingly weak report rattled the US dollar, which fell against other currencies today:
Nadir Belbarka, analyst at XMArabia, explains:
”The deeply negative ADP reading of -32k signals severe labor market contraction, amplifying expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, potentially 50bps or more in November or December, as economic slowdown concerns intensify.
This dovish outlook significantly weakens the USD, as lower interest rate prospects reduce the appeal of USD-denominated assets, driving capital outflows.
The weaker dollar helped to push gold up to another record high today.
In other news…the UK property market returned to growth in September after a summer lull, with house prices rising 0.5% compared with the previous month.
The average amount paid for a home ticked up to £271,995, according to Nationwide Building Society, recovering from a 0.1% decline in August, while the annual rate of house price growth accelerated slightly from 2.1% to 2.2%.
David Beckham earned $23.6m (£18.6m) in dividends from his personal business empire last year as Stella Artois and SharkNinja joined the football star’s roster of brand deals.
Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank at the fastest pace in five months in September, dragged back by the shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover.
We also have data today showing that economic activity in America’s manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month.
Updated
GSK's Walmsley warns UK must 'recognise the value of innovation'
GSK boss Emma Walmsley, who is stepping down at the end of 2025 after nearly nine years at the helm and will hand over to the drugmaker’s chief commercial officer Luke Miels, whom she poached from AstraZeneca, said there is “zero chance of any retirement” for her post-GSK, without saying what she will do next. (Walmsley, 56, will remain with the company until the end of September).
Speaking at the an event hosted by Bloomberg, entitled Women, Money & Power, she had a veiled warning for the UK:
“You cannot have life sciences as a leading industry for your country, whether it’s here or in Europe, if you don’t support a competitive commercial environment, if you don’t recognise the value of innovation, and you know that is critical.”
Drugs companies are in an acrimonious row with the UK government over drug pricing after prolonged negotiations broke down in August, while being pressured by Donald Trump to lower their US prices.
Walmsley reiterated GSK’s commitment to the UK, but also said the group is “betting big on the US” with a $30bn investment over five years. The UK makes up 2% of sales and the US 52%, she noted.
The drugmaker is in negotiations with the US government over pricing and access. Some of its peers have announced price cuts in recent days to stave off looming US tariffs on branded drugs. “I’m optimistic that the industry and government can navigate through this together,” she said.
Updated
AstraZeneca is London's biggest stock again as FTSE 100 closes at new high
Trading has ended for the day in London, with the FTSE 100 share index firmly in record territory.
The blue-chip index has climbed by 96 points through the day to close at 9446 points, a new peak, extending its gains for this year to around 15%.
AstraZeneca surged by over 11% today, which I calculate lifts its value to over £192bn. That also overtakes HSBC’s value, meaning AstraZeneca has retaken the crown as the most valuable company listed in London
GSK (+6.1%) and Hikma (+5.7%) close behind on the FTSE 100 leaderboard, amid relief that Donald Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on branded drugs, which were due to come in today, may not be as bad as feared.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:
The prospect of tariffs has held back gains in this sector, however, this week could mark an important turning point for the pharma sector in the UK. Firstly, there is a clear precedent for UK pharma companies to negotiate with Trump and lower tariff rates, secondly, AstraZeneca’s news this week that it was switching to a primary listing in the US, and keeping its primary listing in the UK, and maintaining its UK headquarters in Cambridge, should put to bed fears that the second largest company by market capitalization on the FTSE 100 is delisting.
Having a dual primary listing on two of the world’s major stock indices can be a good thing for AstraZeneca, since it could increase its public profile, it could also boost liquidity and enable longer trading hours. There is more opportunity for capital raising, and thus it expands the potential for future investment, solidifying AZ’s position as a major global player in the pharma sector. With AZ’s commitment to the UK being reinforced this week, it could help the company grow, which is beneficial to all AstraZeneca shareholders.
Updated
Elsewhere in the markets, the oil price has fallen to a 17-week low today.
Expectation of another output boost from OPEC+, and worries about the impact of the US government shutdown on growth, hit crude prices. output boost by OPEC+ next month.
Brent crude fell 1.1%, to $65.31 a barrel, with US crude down a similar amount to $61.69/barrel.
Wall Street opens lower
Wall Street has opened in the red as investors weigh up the drop in US company payrolls last month, and the government shutdown which began early this morning.
The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 52 points, or 0.1%, in early trading to 46,345 points.
The broader S&P 500 share index is down 0.25%, as is the tech-focused Nasdaq.
ADP’s payrolls report sends “a gloomy message” about the US labour market, says Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Although there is only a passing correlation between monthly changes in the ADP measure of private payrolls and the official non-farm payrolls estimates, the plunge in the former in September is a concern, particularly since the government shutdown could delay the release of the official employment data.
If the shutdown drags on, the weakness in the ADP will be all the Fed has to go on as it considers another rate cut at the FOMC meeting late this month.
Today’s US private payroll reports is much worse than expected, reports Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB:
This reported a decline of 32k jobs in the private sector last month, worse than the increase of 51k expected. The losses were concentrate in the services sector, which shed 28k jobs last month. The goods producing sector also reported job losses, but a far milder decline of 3k.
This is another sign that the US labour market is losing steam. This one is worrying, it is the third time in four months that the private sector has shed jobs, which comes after a boom in service sector jobs growth post Covid.
If the service sector is going into reverse when it comes to hiring, then the labour market picture in the US could deteriorate sharply from here.
Dollar slumps after weak payroll report
The dollar is dropping like a European putt in the Ryder Cup as traders react to the news that US companies cut 32,000 jobs last month.
Wall Street will be calculating that a weak labor market increases the chances of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
That’s bad for the dollar, which is losing ground against other major currencies.
The pound has gained two-thirds of a cent against the dollar, back over $1.35.
*U.S. DOLLAR INDEX TUMBLES AFTER WEAK ADP PAYROLLS REPORT pic.twitter.com/lGlh57Gv4y
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 1, 2025
US companies shed 32,000 jobs last month
Newsflash: US companies shed 32,000 jobs in September, in a sign that America’s labor market weakened last month.
Private payroll provider ADP has reported that services companies cut around 28,000 jobs last month, with some 3,000 positions lost across goods producers.
Dr Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, says:
“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring.”
Job losses were centered on small and medium-sized companies, ADP reports.
Here’s the details:
Small establishments: -40,000 oobs
1-19 employees -19,000
20-49 employees -21,000
Medium establishments: -20,000 jobs
50-249 employees -11,000
250-499 employees -9,000
Large establishments: +33,000 jobs
These job losses may cement fears that Donald Trump’s trade war, and the increased tariffs on imports, has hit economic confidence and driven up costs for US companies.
We were due to receive the official US jobs report on Friday, but it may now be delayed due to the government shutdown.
Updated
Omaze, the company which runs regular house prize draws across the UK, has made its first profit since launching in Britain, City AM reports.
The division of the US-headquartered business has posted a pre-tax profit of £6.2m for 2024, new accounts filed with Companies House show.
The profit comes after Omaze reported a pre-tax loss of £17.3m for 2023.
The new accounts also show that the firm’s revenue jumped from £127.4m to £196.6m over the same period, as more people signed up for the chance to win large, luxury properties around the country. More here.
Other European stock markets are also higher today.
Germany’s DAX has gained 0.55% and France’s CAC is 0.45% higher, with investors seemingly unworried by the US government shutdown.
Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior market analyst at Trading Point, cautions:
While major investment houses speculate on the duration of the shutdown, equities are still digesting the current newsflow. That mood could quickly turn sour if the shutdown continues into next week, especially if US President Trump does not appear ready to compromise.
Tariff relief lifts pharma share prices
Pharmaceutical shares have surged across Europe on relief that Donald Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on branded drugs, which were due to come in today, may not be as bad as feared.
In London, AstraZeneca jumped by 6.15% and GSK was up 2.5%, lifting the FTSE 100 to its new record high, while elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland’s Roche rose by 5.3%, Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk by 3.3%, and Swiss rival Novartis and France’s Sanofi both by climbed more than 2%. (EU goods are currently subject to 15% tariffs while Swiss products come under a 39% US tariff.)
US drug company Pfizer, the maker of Viagra, managed to get a three-year grace period from tariffs after agreeing to slash its medicine prices price cuts by up to 85% in the US and to sell directly to the American public yesterday. Analysts at JPMorgan see this as a “potential bellwether for the sector”. They said:
“We see Pfizer’s agreement on most favoured nation [pricing] as a potential bellwether for the sector, which we anticipate is likely to be replicated by EU pharmaceutical companies and should therefore result in a broadly manageable impact from MFN on EU pharma, reassuring investors.”
A number of pharma companies have taken action in recent days, under pressure from the US president to lower their prices, in the hope of staving off tariffs on imports into the US. AstraZeneca will sell its diabetes and asthma drugs directly to US patients at a discount of up to 70% off list prices. Also last Friday, Sanofi said it will offer a month’s supply of its insulin products for $35 to all patients in the US with a valid prescription.
Denmark’s Novo Nordisk said in August that it would sell its diabetes drug Ozempic for $499 a month directly to eligible cash-paying patients with type 2 diabetes in the US. Drug prices in the US are among the highest in the world, inflated by a complicated system that includes middlemen which negotiate with drugmakers and health plans to set drug prices.
US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said last night:
“While we’re negotiating with these companies, we’re going to let them play out and finish these negotiations, because they are the most important thing to the American people.”
Medical technology stocks such as Convatec also fell sharply last week after the US launched investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices. Today, Convatec is up just over 1% after announcing more than $1bn in investments in the UK and US, including a new £500m flagship research centre in Manchester.
Updated
Gold is continuing to soar to new record heights today.
The spot price of gold is now up 0.75% today at $3,887 per ounce, a new peak, as the rally which has been running for many months continues.
Eurozone inflation rises over 2% target
Just in: the rising cost of living across the eurozone accelerated last month.
Inflation in the euro area rose to 2.2% in September, up from 2.0% in August.
That takes inflation above the European Central Bank’s forecast of 2%, but is rather lower than in the UK (where inflation was 3.8% in August).
Statistics body eurostat has reported that services inflation was 3.2%, followed by food, alcohol & tobacco where prices rose by 3.0%.
Goods prices rose by 0.8%, while energy was 0.4% cheaper than a year ago.
Euro area #inflation expected to be at 2.2% in September 2025, up from 2.0% in August 2025. Components: services +3.2%, food, alcohol & tobacco +3.0%, other goods +0.8%, energy -0.4% - flash estimate https://t.co/B4PQ2yN7oq pic.twitter.com/RayhDlN5Qt
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) October 1, 2025
UK manufacturing shrinks at fastest pace in five months as JLR cyber-attack hits output
UK manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace in five months in September, as factories were hit by subdued domestic demand, fewer export orders, and the disruption at Jaguar Land Rover.
The latest S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI shows that output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases all worsened last month, with manufacturing production falling for the eleventh successive month.
This pulled the UK manufacturing PMI down to 46.2 in September, a five month low. Any reading below 50 shows a contraction.
The cyber attack at JLR, which forced production to halt all month, will have hurt the sector, given the disruption to automotive supply chains.
Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explains:
“The final Manufacturing PMI results provide further worrying news for the health of UK industry. Manufacturers are facing an increasingly challenging environment, with intakes of new business and levels of production hit by weak market sentiment, a dearth of new export work and a high-cost environment exacerbated by tax and labour cost rises.
Companies entwined into the autos supply chain are also facing a temporary hit to activity following the cyber-attack on JLR.
Updated
“The US government shutdown has left investors wondering what might happen next, with a minor pullback on European equity markets and weaker futures prices for Wall Street,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
He adds:
“The FTSE 100 bucked the negative trend, rising 0.4% thanks to a surge in pharmaceutical stocks.
“AstraZeneca, Hikma and GSK rallied after Donald Trump announced plans to launch a government-run website for consumers to buy drugs directly from manufacturers. It looks like investors are regaining confidence in the pharma sector following recent uncertainty around pricing and tariffs. More clarity on both points is helping to regain investors’ interest.”
AstraZeneca are now up 5.6%, followed by Hikma (+4.7%), with GSK gaining 2.2%.
Updated
Convatec to invest £500m in Manchester research centre
The wound dressings and medical device company Convatec has laid out plans to invest £500m in a new flagship research centre in Manchester, in a rare fillip of good news to the government at a time when other companies have paused or ditched investments in the UK.
At the same time, Convatec is investing $600m in research & development (R&D) in the US over the next ten years, expanding its labs in Boston by 50% by the end of 2025.
In the UK, it is creating a new R&D centre in Manchester in a new Citylabs building, set to open in 2027, which will be one of its largest technology & innovation hubs worldwide and be part of the city’s life sciences cluster. It will be carrying out work across its four main areas of advanced wound care, products and services for people with a stoma, as well as those with urinary continence issues, and disposable infusion sets for people with diabetes.
The centre will host up to 250 scientists and lab technicians, of whom 150 will transfer from Convatec’s Deeside labs in north Wales. Some R&D will stay in Deeside and its manufacturing site there is not affected, with 400 staff continuing to work there after the move is completed in 2027.
The company already invests about $100m a year in R&D, 5% of its revenue, in places such as Denmark, Slovakia, Mexico and the Dominican Republic.
Dr. Divakar Ramakrishnan, chief technology officer and head of research & development at Convatec, said the investments “reinforce our belief in the strength of the US and UK life sciences sectors and position Convatec at the forefront of medical technology innovation for years to come.”
Yesterday, the medical devices company Smith+Nephew announced that its finance chief will relocate to the US from the UK, citing operational efficiency, with more than half the company’s revenues coming from the US.
The UK company, which makes orthopaedic implants, wound dressings and surgical aids for sports medicine, said its chief financial officer John Rogers is moving to the US this week.
The government is locked in a row with the pharmaceutical industry over medicine pricing, and companies have criticised the UK as a ‘a terrible place’ to sell medicines. The US drugs company MSD has abandoned a planned £1bn research centre in London, which was already under construction, while another US firm, Eli Lilly, and the UK’s biggest drugmaker AstraZeneca have put investments on hold. At the same time, companies have been investing billions of dollars in the US, under pressure from Donald Trump.
Liz Kendall, science and technology secretary, said Convatec’s move was a “clear vote of confidence in the UK life sciences sector”, adding:
“This landmark investment is proof of how, when the UK and US work closely together to unlock the latest medical breakthroughs, both our countries stand to benefit hugely.”
Updated
The FTSE 100 is continuing to climb, and just hit 9,400 points for the first time ever.
That’s a gain of 50 points, or 0.55%, today.
The US market is set for falls, though, as the US shutdown weighs on sentiment. The S&P 500 index is down 0.8% in the futures market.
Updated
Over in the eurozone, the manufacturing sector has slipped back into contraction.
Data firm S&P Global reports that factory operating conditions across the euro area deteriorated in September, due to a reduction in new order inflows and a sharper rate of job shedding.
This has pulled its HCOB eurozone manufacturing PMI down to 49.8 (from 50.7in August), back below the 50-point mark showing stagnation.
Although production volumes continued to expand, business confidence weakened.
FTSE 100 on track for best year since 2009
So far this year, the FTSE 100 share index has risen by almost 15%.
As this chart shows, the share index quickly shook off its tumble in early April when Donald Trump launched his global trade war, after the US president backed down and delayed new tariffs.
This puts the FTSE 100 on track for its strongest year since 2009, when the index was recovering from the trauma of the financial crisis.
The FTSE 100 index is “cautiously positive” this morning as it pushes over its previous record high, says Richard J Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor.
Hunter adds:
The pharmaceutical sector led the way, with the previous AstraZeneca announcement of a dual listing in New York not only prompting hopes of a valuation boost, but also reading across to its competitors who could conceivably be considering a similar move.
In addition, the announcement from the White House on a deal with the drug companies could also have positive implications for the UK pharmas which do much of their business Stateside.
Channel 4 poaches Boat Race rights
Channel 4 has poached the TV rights to the annual Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge universities, ending a decades-long relationship with the BBC.
Channel 4 has struck a five year deal to air broadcast the high profile annual race on the Thames until 2030, in a surprise shift away from the BBC.
The BBC, which will retain the radio rights, showed an inaugural broadcast in 1938 and has been considered the home of the race bar a brief four year period when ITV took the TV rights between 2005 and 2009.
“We are grateful for the support of our previous broadcast partners and have come a long way since our first radio commentary in 1927 and television pictures in 1938,” said Siobhan Cassidy, chair of The Boat Race Company.
The deal struck by Channel 4 will see it cover the centenary of the Women’s Boat Race in 2027 and 200th anniversary of the men’s race in 2029.
The Cambridge men’s team currently lead the fiercely contested head-to-head 88-81, and secured their third consecutive victory earlier this year.
An estimated 250,000 fans attended the latest edition, with a peak of 2.8m watching on TV.
Pete Andrews, head of sport at Channel 4, says:
“It’s the crown jewel of the rowing calendar and consistently captures the imagination of the British public year after year, both on the side of the Thames and in living rooms across the country.
“We are committed to bringing the very best sports events to our audience, both from the UK, and around the globe, and The Boat Race is the perfect example.”
Channel 4’s portfolio of sports rights include the Women’s FA Cup, Formula 1 highlights and England’s home matches in the UEFA Nations League and European qualifiers.
The broadcaster has also developed a reputation for striking last-minute opportunistic rights deals including showing Emma Radacanu’s US Open victory, the victorious England under-21 Euros campaign and the Cricket World Cup finals.
FTSE 100 hits record high
Newsflash: Britain’s stock market has hit a new record high at the start of trading, as it begins October on the front foot.
The FTSE 100 share index has risen by 32 points, or 0.3%, to 9382 points, a new intraday high above the peak hit yesterday, as investors shrug off concerns about the US government shutdown.
Pharmaceuticals firms AstraZeneca (+3.6%) and Hikma (+3.2%) are leading the FTSE 100 risers this morning.
This follows strong trading in the third quarter of this year – the Footsie gained 6.7% in July-September, its best quarter since October-December 2022.
As flagged in the introduction, global markets just posted their best September since 2013.
The London stock market has had a strong 2025, with defence companies, miners and banks all in demand this year.
Gold miner Fresnillo is the top riser this year, up 287%, following the surge in gold prices to record highs.
AJ Bell head of financial analysis Danni Hewson says the FTSE 100 has enjoyed a stellar year so far, adding:
“As investors and businesses weigh up what could be in the upcoming Budget, the beleaguered chancellor may point to the FTSE’s strong showing as evidence her push to boost investment in the UK is on the right track in one sense.”
Updated
UK house prices rise: what the experts say
Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners:
“UK house prices returned to growth in September with a monthly uplift of 0.5%, after taking account of seasonal effects, despite the market showing signs of trepidation ahead of the Autumn Budget. Annual growth remained steady at 2.2% - a slightly higher pace of growth compared to last month, though the majority of regions saw a modest slowdown in annual house price growth in the three months to September.
“While buyers are gradually adjusting to the stamp duty changes introduced in April, when thresholds reverted to their previous, lower levels, a new wave of uncertainty is emerging around what property tax measures the Chancellor may target in her fiscal statement on November 26.
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent:
“As our supply of listings start to slow a little in response to worries about the Chancellor’s Budget intentions for property taxes so the pressure on prices has eased.
“As a result, with some values softening, still-motivated buyers are seeking to second-guess possible increased costs.
“Looking forward, low unemployment as well as earnings still rising faster than inflation and house prices overall means we can look forward to a relatively-strong bounce back once the uncertainty is over.”
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket:
“While there is much uncertainty, not least surrounding the looming Budget at the end of November, the resilience of the market is remarkable. Activity is steady with focused buyers and sellers proceeding with their moves. Average prices are being held in check with buyers finding themselves in a strong position, which they are using to negotiate on price.
Five interest rate cuts since August 2004 have helped boost affordability, confidence and momentum. Even though September’s meeting of the Bank of England resulted in a hold rather than a further cut in rates, that stability enables buyers and sellers to plan ahead with some confidence.”
Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey reports drop in sales rate
Elsewhere in the property sector, UK homebuilder Taylor Wimpey has revealed its sales rate has slowed over the summer.
Taylor Wimpey has reported that in the nine weeks to 28 September 2025, its net private sales rate was 0.65 per outlet per week.
That’s slower than a year earlier (when it sold 0.7 homes per outlet per week), and below its sales rate for the year to date of 0.74 per outlet per week.
Taylor Wimpey points to “the backdrop of softer market conditions”, but insists that its expectations for full year operating profit are unchanged, adding:
While mindful of the various issues impacting customer sentiment and propensity to buy homes, including the impact of the delayed UK Budget on short term customer confidence, we remain well positioned and own all land with planning for 2026 completion.
[the autumn budget scheduled for 26 November isn’t ‘delayed’, exactly, just quite late in the year]
Updated
Southern England lags behind rest of the market
Nationwide also reports there was a modest slowdown in annual house price growth in the the majority of regions across the UK in the last quarter.
Northern Ireland remained the top performing area with annual house price growth of 9.6% in the July-September quarter, followed by Wales with 3.0% annual growth, Scotland with 2.9%, then England with 1.6%.
In @AskNationwide's latest house price index for September average house price growth nudged up by 0.5%. This made the average home now worth £271,995 according to their index. Once again Northern Ireland and the North continued to outperform the rest of the country boosting… pic.twitter.com/2BtQTx570e
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) October 1, 2025
Prices rose faster in Northern England than the South, Nationwide explains:
Average prices in Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands) were up 3.4% year on year, with the North (which incorporates areas, such as Tyneside, Teesside and Cumbria) the top performing region in England – with prices up 5.1% year on year.
Meanwhile average house price growth in Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) slowed to 0.7%. This was driven by a marked softening in price growth in Outer Metropolitan and Outer South East, the latter being the weakest performing region, with annual growth of 0.3% (down from 2.6% last quarter).
UK house prices return to growth in September
UK house prices returned to growth last month, lender Nationwide reports this morning.
According to Nationwide, the average UK house price rose by 0.5% in September, having dropped by 0.1% in August, lifting the average price to £271,995.
On an annual basis, house prices rose by 2.2% in the year to September, up from 2.1% in August.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, says ‘supportive’ conditions for buyers are supporting the market:
“The broad stability in the annual rate of house price growth over the past three months mirrors that of activity. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase have been hovering at around 65,000 cases per month, close to the pre-pandemic average (despite the higher interest rate environment).
“Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.
“Unemployment is low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace, household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered in the coming quarters as we, and most other analysts, expect.
“Providing the broader economic recovery is maintained, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually in the quarters ahead.
Introduction: Markets put strong September behind them
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s a new month in the markets, as investors shuffle nervously into the final quarter of the year.
September, often a weak month in the markets, was surprisingly strong this year despite anxiety that the artificial intelligence boom had run too high. Global stocks climbed by 3.5%, their best September since 2013, while the US S&P 500 share index had its best September in fifteen years.
Britain’s FTSE 100 joined the party, hitting a record closing high of 9350 points last night.
October is starting with the news that the US government is in shutdown, after Republicans and Democrats failed to agree a funding plan for federal departments.
Investors don’t seem too alarmed yet, probably remembering that previous shutdown have been resolved fairly quickly. However, they will be deprived of US economic data until the situation is resolved.
The uncertainty appears to be weighing on the US dollar. The dollar index has slipped to a one-week low, lifting the pound by 0.15% to $1.345. The euro has also strengthened.
Gold, which doesn’t need any excuse to rise this year, has hit a new record high of $3,875 early this morning as the shutdown loomed.
Typically, “a shutdown is immaterial for markets”, points out Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, adding:
In fact, the 2018-2019 shutdown, which lasted for over a month, actually saw Wall Street rise. The issue for markets here is twofold.
One, it could delay the release of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, which is going to be a nuisance, if nothing else, especially as market participants search for insights on the health of an ailing US labour market.
US President Trump has also threatened to permanently lay-off workers, which could turn the shutdown into a mini labour market shock.
The agenda
7am BST: Nationwide’s UK house price index
9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI report for September
9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI report for September
10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for September
Updated
