Closing post
Time to wrap up.
Donald Trump has intensified his call for cuts to US borrowing costs, urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by a full percentage point.
Trump pushed for a cut after the latest jobs report, showing that the US added 139,000 new jobs in May, more than expected.
Stocks rallied in New York after the jobs report was released.
The price of silver has hit a 13-year high….
Russia’s central bank surprised the markets today, by cutting its key interest rate by a full percentage point.
The Bank of Russia lowered rates from 21% to 20%, citing easing inflationary pressure.
It explained:
“Current inflationary pressures, including underlying ones, continue to decline. While domestic demand growth is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services, the Russian economy is gradually returning to a balanced growth path.”
At a press conference following the decision Governor Elvira Nabiullina dismissed a suggestion that the regulator had given in to political pressure to reduce rates.
Donald Trump has claimed that today’s jobs numbers are “great”.
Posting on Truth Social, the president declares:
GREAT JOB NUMBERS, STOCK MARKET UP BIG! AT THE SAME TIME, BILLIONS POURING IN FROM TARIFFS!!!
[reminder: Total nonfarm payroll employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, a little higher than forecast, but lower than the average monthly gain of 149,000 over the prior 12 months.
It also wasn’t ‘great’ news that March and April’s jobs data was revised down, showing that 95,000 fewer jobs were created than previously estimated].
Trump calls for big cut to US interest rates
Donald Trump has taken a break from squabbling with Elon Musk to call for a hefty cut to US interest rates.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump claims that Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell – who he has nicknamed “Too Late” – is a “disaster” for not having cut earlier.
Following today’s jobs report, showing a slowdown in hiring, the US president argued that the Fed should cut rates by a whole percentage point – which would be a fairly dramatic reduction.
Trump posted:
“Too Late” at the Fed is a disaster! Europe has had 10 rate cuts, we have had none. Despite him, our Country is doing great. Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!
[Fact check, Europe has had eight cuts since the European Central Bank started easing monetary policy a year ago, with the latest coming yesterday.
The US Fed hasn’t cut rates since last December (the month before Trump’s second inauguration), when it lowered its target range to between 4.25% and 4.5%.]
In a second post, Trump says a Fed rate cut would lower the interest rates on US government debt, making borrowing cheaper.
He writes:
If “Too Late” at the Fed would CUT, we would greatly reduce interest rates, long and short, on debt that is coming due. Biden went mostly short term. There is virtually no inflation (anymore), but if it should come back, RAISE “RATE” TO COUNTER. Very Simple!!! He is costing our Country a fortune. Borrowing costs should be MUCH LOWER!!!
[Factcheck: the US inflation rate dipped to 2.3% per year in April, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target.
Also: the fear that Trump’s trade war will be inflationary is making the Fed wary of cutting rates, which is keeping bond yields (interest rates) high]
Updated
Tesla shares gain 5% in early trading
Shares in Tesla have opened higher, after a torrid session yesterday.
Tesla’s stock has risen by 5.5% in early trading to around $300, recovering around a third of yesterday’s 14% tumble during the escalating clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
Trend:— Tesla shares rise nearly 5% after 14% drop yesterday due to Musk-Trump conflict. pic.twitter.com/6b67tLMg9e
— The Outpost (@outpostosint) June 6, 2025
Tesla shareholders may be hoping that relations can be patched up. But… the US president may not be ready to make peace. Trump has told ABC News that he is “not particularly” interested in talking to Musk right now, claiming the billionaire has “lost his mind”.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is even considering getting rid of his red Tesla too, which he acquired back in March.
Wall Street opens higher
The opening bell on the New York stock market has been rung, and stocks are rising.
The main indices are all up in early trading, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 474 points, or +1.1%, at 42,794 points.
The broader S&P 500 share index, and the tech-focused Nasdaq, are both up around 1% too.
Stocks are gaining despite predictions that today’s jobs report will deter the US Federal Reserve from any imminent interest rate cuts.
As Scott Helfstein, Global X‘s head of investment strategy, says:
“In the ongoing saga of the White House versus the Fed, this jobs report continues to back the Fed’s patience strategy.
That said, the White House set the stage for policy uncertainty and economic volatility in the first place. The Fed is likely to remain on hold through the end of summer to see how tariff negotiations proceed and ensure prices are stabilizing.”
Investor: US jobs market is in limbo
Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments, warns that uncertainty is holding back the US jobs market:
“With the amount of uncertainty in the economy, it is not surprising that hiring is slowing. If there is a bright spot, it is that the unemployment rate didn’t increase. The US isn’t hiring, but they aren’t firing either, which will only last so long if we do not see a resolution to the larger issues.
Limbo is not a great spot for business and job creation. Who would feel comfortable with the Truther in Chief that can flip the economy on its head with one ill-advised tweet.”
Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, has spotted signs that the Trump trade war hit the jobs market last month:
The contributions to the 139,000 rise in payrolls in May were unusually narrow, with 78,000 of the gain from health care & social assistance and another 48,000 from leisure & hospitality.
Elsewhere, the 8,000 drop in manufacturing and 6,500 decline in retail point to some limited negative tariff effects. That said, it was striking that transportation & warehousing employment rebounded by 5,800, despite reports of sharp declines in job openings amid lower imports.
Wealth Club: US jobs market shrugs off tariffs
Today’s jobs report shows the US labor market has shrugged off the tariff uncertainty that rocked global stock and bond markets in April and May, reports Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club:
While the Federal government has continued to shed a small number of jobs, the wider economy has more than made up the difference, with the US adding slightly more jobs than expected in May. Wage growth also came in higher than expected – suggesting the economy is in rude health.
That will be taken as vindication by the Trump administration – which has been clear that the tariffs are aimed squarely at supporting Main Street rather than pleasing Wall Street. Less positive from the White Houses’ point of view is that a strong economy and rising wages gives the Federal Reserve less reason to cut interest rates – pushing yields a touch higher and making the fiscal splurge built into Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” that bit more expensive.
With rate cuts looking less likely, Fed Chair Jay Powell can expect to remain firmly in the President’s firing line once the spat with Musk is over.”
[of course, had Trump not u-turned on his initial plans for higher tariffs, today’s jobs data might be worse….]
US annual hourly earnings up 3.9%
Earnings grew faster than expected across the US economy last month – a boost to workers, but a potential worry for central bankers.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $36.24 in May, today’s jobs report shows. Economists had forecast a smaller rise, of 0.3%.
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%, ahead of forecasts of a 3.7% rise.
April’s annual wage growth data has been revised up too, from 3.8% to 3.9%.
Higher wages can lead to stickier inflation, which may deter the Federal Reserve from cutting US interest rates despite mounting pressure from Donald Trump.
May average hourly earnings +3.9% y/y vs. +3.7% est. & +3.9% prior (rev up from +3.8%) pic.twitter.com/RJopqrnDlj
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 6, 2025
The 139,000 increase in the US non-farm payroll last month is slightly below the average monthly gain of 149,000 recorded over the prior 12 months.
Digging into the US jobs report, we can see that the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4% in May.
That suggests a small increase in people neither in work nor looking for a job.
Where jobs were added, or lost
The US healthcare sector added 62,000 jobs in May, higher than the average monthly gain of 44,000 over the prior 12 months, according to today’s jobs report. Job gains occurred in hospitals (+30,000), ambulatory health care services (+29,000), and skilled nursing care facilities (+6,000).
Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in May (+48,000), largely in food services and drinking places (+30,000).
In May, social assistance employment continued to trend up (+16,000), reflecting continued growth in individual and family services (+16,000).
Federal government employment continued to decline in May (-22,000) and is down by 59,000 since January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey, so this may not capture the full impact of Elon Musk’s DOGE cost-cutting drive)
US economy added 139,000 jobs in May
Newsflash: Hiring slowed across the US economy last month, and fewer jobs were created than previously thought in March and April too.
The US added 139,000 new jobs in May, according to the latest non-farm payroll report, with the US unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%.
Economists had expected the non-farm payroll to rise by 130,000 jobs, so this is slightly higher than forecast.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that “employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.”
But, the report also reveals that 95,000 fewer jobs were created in March and April than previously estimated.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and the change for April was revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000, the BLS says.
Updated
US jobs report approaches....
Tension is building in the financial markets as investors await the latest US jobs report, due in under half an hour’s time.
As flagged in the introduction, economists expect a hiring slowdown – with non-farm payrolls forecast to increase by around 130,000 for last month, down from 177k in April.
But as usual, there’s a wide range of forecasts – from a low of 75,000 new jobs to a high of 190k.
US May Payrolls Seen Slowing Sharply, Keeping Fed on Cautious Path
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) June 6, 2025
Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will conclude a volatile week, during which US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs dominated headlines and drove moves in global equity markets.
Economists expect… pic.twitter.com/6o9VTq0g1r
The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, explains:
The US economy needs to create approximately 200k jobs per month for the unemployment rate to remain stable, likewise, initial jobless claims need to stay below 260k-270k per week for the unemployment rate not to rise. The question is, will job growth slow to such an extent that the unemployment rate rises? The consensus is no, not yet. It is worth considering the economic backdrop, to determine if a downside surprise in the labour market data could materialise on Friday. Consumer sentiment has picked up in recent weeks, although it remains at low levels, business confidence has also picked up from the lows, and the layoff rate, as calculated by the Jolts survey, remains stable.
Thus, while we expect a soft May payrolls report, we do not think that it will show the labour market falling off a cliff. The de-escalation in the US/ China trade war may have helped sentiment. There remains a huge amount of uncertainty caused by the US trade tariffs, and if the US economy can generate decent jobs growth in this environment it would suggest an underlying resilience, which could boost stock markets, the dollar and overall risk sentiment.
Anything under 100k for May payrolls would be considered weak, and it may also be a sign of worse to come. Thus, Friday’s report is all about the trajectory of the US labour market and what this means for the Federal Reserve.
NatWest banking app is down
UK bank NatWest has apologised to customers after service issues left people unable to log in to their mobile app.
Customers are being urged to use online or telephone banking, or go into a branch, while it works to fix the problem.
A spokeswoman for the bank said:
“We are aware that customers are experiencing difficulties accessing the NatWest mobile banking app this morning.
“We’re really sorry about this and working to fix it as quickly as possible.
“Customers can still use online and telephone banking, or visit a branch.”
More than 3,000 outages were reported through services monitoring site Downdetector at about 10am on Friday.
UK proposes lifting ban on bitcoin and crypto funds
Britain’s financial regulator is clearing the way for UK investors to buy crypto assets such as bitcoin though low-cost ETF-style funds.
The Financial Conduct Authority is proposing to lift the ban on offering crypto exchange traded notes (cETNs) to retail investors.
The change would mean that cETNs could be sold to individual consumers, rather than just professional investors, in the UK, if they’re traded on an FCA-approved investment exchange.
The FCA notes that similar products are already available in other countries.
David Geale, executive director of payments and digital assets at the FCA said:
“This consultation demonstrates our commitment to supporting the growth and competitiveness of the UK’s crypto industry. We want to rebalance our approach to risk and lifting the ban would allow people to make the choice on whether such a high-risk investment is right for them given they could lose all their money.”
This feels like a change of position from the regulator, which has previously warned that crypto investors should be prepared to lose all their money
The UK boss of Tata Steet is urging the British government to secure its trade deal with Donald Trump as soon as possible, amid fears it could miss out on tariff-free access to the US.
It was reported yesterday that Tata Steel, which runs the vast Port Talbot steelworks in south Wales, could breach US import rules that require all steel to be “melted and poured” in the country from which it is imported.
That’s because Tata is curently importing steel from its sister companies in India and Europe to be finished in the UK, having shut down its blast furnace at Port Talbot last year as it shifts to a greener electric arc furnace.
Rajesh Nair, CEO of Tata Steel UK says today:
“We are grateful for the work the UK Government has undertaken so far in negotiating this trade agreement with the US administration.
“Tata Steel UK will need to import steel substrate until Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking is operational in Port Talbot from late 2027 onwards. It is therefore critical for our business that melted and poured in the UK is not a requirement to access the steel quotas in any future trade deal.
“Even though we are not currently melting steel in the UK, we remain the largest steel producer in the country and our mills continue to transform imported steel coil and slab into high-value, specialist products which are not available from US producers and are therefore essential to our US customers.
“We urge the government to secure a deal as soon as possible, and we would be happy to provide the US Government with any needed assurances on the provenance and processing of the steel we supply.
“However, a good deal with the US will not negate the need for an urgent review of the UK’s own tariff rate quotas for steel to protect us from re-diverted steel flows and global overcapacity”.
Silver price hits 13-year high
The price of silver has hit a 13-year high this morning.
Silver traded as high as $36.29 per ounce, its highest level since February 2012.
Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior market analyst at Trading Point, suggests anxiety over the US-China dispute over rare earth minerals could be lifting the silver price:
Silver is stealing the limelight, as, at the time of writing, it is trading above the $36 level, recording a new 13-year high.
Some investors believe that this move could be an indication of a brighter economic outlook, given silver’s multiple industrial uses. While that could be the case, the current upleg could also be driven by hoarding amidst the ongoing rare earth metals dispute.
As well as being a precious metal, silver also has industrial uses, in electronics, automobile components and solar panels.
Another factor may be some investors shifting out of gold into silver, which has hit a series of record highs in the last few years.
Alexander Zumpfe, a senior trader at German gold refiner Heraeus Group, told Bloomberg yesterday that there was “renewed interest from momentum-driven investors who are rotating into silver.”
Zumpfe explained:
“After lagging behind gold for several weeks, silver is now catching up,”
The weakness of the dollar has also pushed up the prices of precious metals quoted in the US currency.
Eurozone growth revised up to 0.6% in Q1 2025
Newsflash: the eurozone economy grew faster than previously estimated.
Eurozone GDP rose by 0.6% in January-March, new data from eurostat shows, twice as fast as the 0.3% growth previously estimated.
The increase has been driven by Ireland, whose economy expanded by a sizzling 9.7% in the last quarter, due to a surge of exports of products, such as pharmaceuticals, to avoid new US tariffs.
Ireland was followed by Malta (+2.1%) and Cyprus (+1.3%). The highest decreases were observed in Luxembourg (-1.0%), Slovenia (-0.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both -0.5%).
Germany expanded by 0.4%, and France by 0.1%, slower than the UK which expanded by 0.7% in the quarter.
The owner of Pret A Manger is reportedly considering selling a stake in the sandwich chain ahead of a potential stock market flotation.
Luxembourg-based JAB Holding – which bought Pret for £1.5 billion in 2018 – told the Financial Times that while it was not “currently” considering a stake sale in Pret, it could look at the move with an initial public offering (IPO) in its sights.
“As we move closer to a potential IPO, we may evaluate bringing on a pre-IPO investor,” it told the FT.
It is thought to mark the first time Pret has publicly confirmed IPO plans for Pret, PA Media reports.
Wall Street is set to open higher in a few hours time, after falling yesterday amid the clashes between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
The S&P 500 share index, which fell 0.5% yesterday, is up around 0.35% in premarket trading.
Tesla shares are up over 4% in premarket trading, recovering a portion of yesterday’s 14% tumble.
There could be hopes that the two men patch up their disagreement; overnight, hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman urged Trump and Musk to stop fighting and “make peace” for the benefit of the US.
I support @realDonaldTrump and @elonmusk and they should make peace for the benefit of our great country.
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) June 5, 2025
We are much stronger together than apart.
Ion Jauregui, analyst at ActivTrades, says:
After a session marked by a sharp decline, Tesla shares rebounded strongly in after-hours trading. The catalyst: a Politico report revealing that President Donald Trump’s advisors have scheduled a phone call with Elon Musk for today, Friday, in an effort to ease tensions following a public dispute between the two figures.
Updated
Global food prices fell in May
Global food commodity prices declined in May, driven by cheaper cereal, sugar, and vegetable oil prices.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has reported that its food price index, which tracks a basket of food commodities, dipped by 1 point last month, to 127.7 points. That left prices 7.2% higher than a year ago, but almost a third below its peak in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Cereal prices fell 1.8%, thanks to a record maize harvest in the US, and increasing seasonal availability from ongoing harvests in Argentina and Brazil.
Vegetable oil prices fell 3.7%, with palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oil prices all down.
Sugar fell 2.6%, attributed to “weaker global demand for sugar, amid concerns over the uncertain global economic outlook and its potential impact on demand from the beverage and food processing industries”.
Meat, though, rose 1.3%, helped by strong global import demand, particularly from China, the Middle East and Europe.
Dairy prices rose 0.8%, with international butter prices remaining at “historically high levels”, due to strong demand from Asia and the Middle East amid tightening milk supplies in Australia.
Leeds technology firm Filtronic appears to be caught in the crossfire between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
Filtronic, which was founded by Professor David Rhodes, chair of electronic and electrical engineering at Leeds University, designs and manufacturers RF-to-mmWave components. They convert radio frequency signals to higher-frequency millimeter wave signals, which allow faster communication.
It has secured several deals with SpaceX in the past, including a $20m tie-up in February to supply parts to its Starlink satellite system.
Shares in Filtronic have dropped by 10% this morning, as traders digest Trump’s threat to terminate the governmental subsidies and contracts given to Musk’s businesses.
Filtronic has been on an excellent run, though. It ended trading last night at a record high, having risen from 11p a decade ago to 132p this morning.
Updated
The London stock market has opened higher, heading back towards its recent record high.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has gained 19 points, or 0.2%, in early trading to 8830 points.
Trade war anxiety has eased slightly, after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping held a call yesterday.
The Footsie is now less than one hundred points away from its alltime high, 8,908 points, reached in March.
Disappointing economic data from Germany this morning has suggested that the Trump trade wars have hurt Europe’s largest economy .
German exports sank by 1.7% in April, new data from statistics body Destatis shows, a bigger fall than expected.
Im April 2025 sind die deutschen #Exporte gegenüber März 2025 nach vorläufigen Ergebnissen um 1,7 % gesunken und die #Importe um 3,9 % gestiegen. im Vergleich zum April 2024 sanken die Exporte um 2,1 %, während die Importe um 3,8 % stiegen. https://t.co/QasNyrCtPR #Außenhandel pic.twitter.com/5240E57mqZ
— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) June 6, 2025
Industrial output also weakened, falling by 1.4% month-on-month in April.
ING haven’t given up hope for a cyclical rebound in Germany, yet, anyway. Their global head of macro, Carsten Brzeski, told clients that the ongoing trade tensions will still weigh on German (and European) industry, adding:
The recently increased US tariffs on steel, along with the threat of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, highlight that the risk of escalating trade tensions remains very much alive. Compounding these pressures, the stronger euro effectively acts as an additional tariff.
And there are more potential impediments to German industry which have nothing to do with tariffs; water levels in Germany’s rivers are currently at almost unprecedentedly low levels for this time of year. Vessels can currently only transport around 50% of their normal cargo.
Bosses' bonuses banned at six water companies
Bonuses for 10 water company executives in England, including the boss of Thames Water, will be banned with immediate effect over serious sewage pollution, as part of new powers brought in by the Labour government.
The top executives of six water companies who have overseen the most serious pollution events will not receive performance rewards this year, the environment said.
The companies – Thames Water, Anglian Water, Southern Water, United Utilities, Wessex Water and Yorkshire Water – are responsible for the most serious category of sewage pollution into rivers and seas, all of which are, or have been, under criminal investigation by the Environment Agency.
Under powers in Labour’s Water (Special Measures) Act 2025, the regulator, Ofwat, is now able to ban bonuses for water executives where a company fails to meet key standards on environmental and financial performance, or is convicted of a criminal offence.
House prices: what the experts say
Here’s some early reaction to the news that UK house prices dipped by 0.4% last month.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank:
“Demand was frontloaded this year thanks to April’s stamp duty deadline, which means house prices are coming under downwards pressure as buyers still in the market have a lot to choose from.
While activity will eventually pick up, concerns around inflation and the government’s tight financial headroom mean mortgage rates don’t feel poised to drop meaningfully. We expect UK growth of 3.5% in 2025, which suggests the direction of travel for prices will be largely sideways.”
Jonathan Handford, managing director at national estate agent group Fine & Country:
“This slight month-on-month dip follows the stamp duty changes introduced in April and comes just ahead of the typically quieter summer period, when many families pause moving plans to focus on holidays and school breaks.
“Although economic pressures continue to impact personal finances, with inflation at 3.5% and household budgets feeling the squeeze, the Bank of England’s May rate cut to 4.25% has offered some welcome relief. While mortgage rates remain relatively high, any further easing in borrowing costs could help reignite market activity.
“Mortgage approvals fell in April as demand naturally cooled after the stamp duty tax break ended, and tighter lending criteria and deposit requirements still pose challenges for many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers. However, steady wage growth is providing some support, even if affordability remains a hurdle.
In this month’s @HalifaxBank HPI for May 2025 house prices took two steps back after taking two steps forward in April. Falling 0.4% to £296,648. This game of cat and mouse looks set to continue throughout the year, with rates determining the outcome. pic.twitter.com/1RKSpp4OAS
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) June 6, 2025
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club:
“After a strong start to 2025, the housing market lost momentum as March’s change in stamp duty thresholds came into view and passed. Having spiked in March, housing transactions slowed sharply in April after homebuyers had rushed to complete transactions in the nick of time. This soft patch probably has a little further to go. Mortgage approvals, which lead house purchases by a couple of months, have sunk through the first four months of this year. Earlier changes to stamp duty thresholds in 2021 also led to a temporary drop-off in housing activity.
“We think that the current weakness will prove temporary and that the conditions are in place for a modest pickup in the housing market later in 2025. Further interest rate cuts and real pay gains will support demand. But with house prices remaining high, affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty will temper activity.”
Northern Ireland continues to lead annual price growth in the UK
Halifax’s report also shows that house prices are rising faster in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland than in England.
Here’s the details:
Northern Ireland once again recorded the fastest pace of annual property price inflation, up by +8.6% over the past year. The typical home now costs £209,388, though prices remain well below the UK average.
Wales and Scotland also posted strong annual growth of +4.8% in May. Average prices now stand at £230,405 and £214,864 respectively.
Among the English regions, the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber lead the way, both showing annual house price growth of +3.7%. Average property values in these areas are now £240,823 and £213,983 respectively.
In contrast, London continues to see more subdued growth, with prices rising by just +1.2% year-onyear. However, the capital remains by far the most expensive part of the UK housing market, with the average home now priced at £542,017.
UK house prices dip in May
British house prices fell by more than expected in May, new figures from mortgage lender Halifax showed on Friday.
Halifax said house prices fell by 0.4% in May, more than reversing a 0.3% increase in April. Economists had only expected a fall of 0.1%.
According to Halifax, the average property price was £296,648 last month, down from £297,798 in April.
On an annual basis, house prices were 2.5% higher on the year – again less than expected.
Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, says the broader picture is that the housing market that has remained largely stable in 2025, with average prices down by just -0.2% since the start of the year.
Bryden adds:
The market appears to have absorbed the temporary surge in activity over spring, which was driven by the changes to stamp duty.
Affordability remains a challenge, with house prices still high relative to incomes. However, lower mortgage rates and steady wage growth have helped support buyer confidence.
The outlook will depend on the pace of cuts to interest rates, as well as the strength of future income growth and broader inflation trends. Despite ongoing pressure on household finances and a stilluncertain economic backdrop, the housing market has shown resilience – a story we expect to continue in the months ahead.”
Updated
Markets brace for US jobs report, after explosive Trump-Musk row
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Investors will have one eye on the US jobs market today, and the other on the spectacular blow-up between Donald Trump and Elon Musk overnight.
The latest US employment report is expected to show a slowdown in hiring across the US in May.
Economists forecast that the US non-farm payroll will have risen by around 130,000 in May, down from the 177,000 increase recorded in April, with the unemployment rate sticking at 4.2%.
Median NFP estimate: 126k pic.twitter.com/imJpaGE3pH
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 5, 2025
A weak payrolls report could fuel fears that the US economy is slowing, as Trump’s trade wars hit activity. But it could also intensify the pressure on the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, something the US president has been demanding for months.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, explains:
The US unemployment rate has hovered between 4.0% and 4.2% over the past year, and a job in the unemployment rate to 4.3% or higher will heighten economic slowdown fears. The US rates market is pricing in an 85% chance of a 25bp Fed rate cut in September, with a cumulative 55bp in cuts expected by year-end.
So the markets could be volatile at 1.30pm UK time, when the non-farm payroll data lands.
Speaking of volatility… the Trump-Musk relationship exploded dramatically on Thursday, with the president and the world’s richest person slinging accusations at each other.
Shares in Tesla slumped over 14%, wiping over $150bn off the company’s value, as Trump threatened to terminate Musk’s governmental subsidies and contracts, and accused the billionaire of going “CRAZY!” over the removal of electric car subsidies.
From the other corner, Musk called for Trump’s impeachment, claimed the president appeared in the files into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and briefly threatened to decommission SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft.
It all added up to another bruising day for shareholders in Tesla, whose value had already been hit by the backlack against Musk’s role in the Trump Administration.
Some traders will have been betting on further falls in Tesla’s share price, as Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, explains:
The selling in Tesla stock on the day has been wholly impressive with 285m shares traded on the day – the most since Jan 2023 – with a ‘sell first, ask questions later’ mentality sweeping through the shareholder base.
In the options space, over 4m put options traded hands, 4x the 20-day average.
The agenda
7am BST: Halifax house price index
9am BST: UN FAO food price index
10am BST: Eurozone GDP report for Q1 2025 (3rd estimate)
11.30am BST: Bank of Russia interest rate decision
1.30pm BST: US non-farm payroll report
Updated
