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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK government borrowing hits record high in April and retail sales slump - as it happened

A closed pub in the City of London
A closed pub in the City of London Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

Closing summary

And finally, after an edgy day’s trading, Europe’s markets have closed pretty much where they started.

Anxiety over US-China tensions weighed on stocks, and kept the oil price down. But some investors are also clinging to hopes that lockdown measures will continue to be eased without a dangerous spike in Covid-19 infections.

The City took the record surge in UK borrowing, and the slump in retail sales, largely in its stride.

Over the week, the Stoxx 600 index gained 3.7%, which Reuters says is the best performance since 6th-10th April. The FTSE 100 gained 3.3%.

Here’s today’s closing prices:

  • Stoxx 600: up 0.02 points or 0.01% at 340.28
  • UK FTSE 100: down 22 points or 0.37% at 5993
  • German DAX: up 9.9 points or 0.09% at 11,075
  • French CAC: up 5.6 points or 0.1% at 4,451

David Madden of CMC Markets says the Footsie underperformed due to geopolitical tensions:

The FTSE 100 is underperforming against its Continental counterparts as US-China tensions rise. Beijing are keen to tighten their grip on Hong Kong which is why the Chinese government are set to impose a national security law on the district. Last year there was protests and civil unrest in the territory as the Beijing administration were trying to put Hong Kong further under its influence.

The latest development is likely to trigger protests. President Trump effectively sided with Hong Kong last year so he is likely to do the same if the situation escalates, and that might renew US-China trade tensions, which is why equity traders are a little nervous.

On the FTSE 100, HSBC and Prudential are the biggest fallers in terms of index points as the companies have large exposure to the Far East. The weakness in the oil market is weighing on BP as well as Royal Dutch Shell.

But the standout performer was Marston’s - jumping by over 102% to 66p after securing that brewing tie-up with Carlsberg.

On that note, goodnight, and have a lovely Bank Holiday weekend (while staying safe). GW

With Britain’s borrowing hitting record levels, the government can at least rely on the Bank of England to mop up hundreds of billions of pounds of bonds.

That moves, though the Bank’s QE scheme, is helping to keep borrowing costs at record lows - and limit the need for fresh austerity.

My colleague Richard Partington explains:

A decade ago, Britain would have been described as living beyond its means. This time around, warnings about maxed-out credit cards will only come from yesterday’s men who favoured austerity. It appears there is now broader acceptance of an argument defeated by the Conservatives a decade ago – that the budget deficit is more complex than a family’s bank balance.

The household metaphor holding sway today is about public borrowing and central heating: it’s supposed to come on when the weather is cold. And right now, despite the late spring sunshine, the economic outlook for Britain is wintery bleak.

But well above and beyond the tools a family could call upon to handle a blowout credit card bill, Britain has the advantage of the Bank of England sinking interest rates to the lowest level in its 325-year history, alongside its £645bn quantitative easing programme – sucking up government debt to keep borrowing costs low.

Small brewers are worried they might lose out once Marston’s teams up with Carlsberg to form a new brewing and distribution operation.

Although Marston’s will keep running its pubs independently, could there be pressure to take more beer from the CMBC joint venture, and less from independent beer-makers?

James Calder, chief executive of SIBA, which represents small independent brewers in the UK, says:

“This merger is the latest in a series of consolidating measures within the UK beer market. It has the potential to take the Marston’s brand global and brings Carlsberg back into the distribution and porterage business only after a few short years of leaving it.

This merger yet again has the potential to impact negatively on small independent brewers by further reducing the access to market they receive.”

The City is cheering Marston’s tie-up with Carlsberg.

Shares in the UK pub and brewer jumped as much as 87% today to 60p, for the first time since Friday 13th March (at the height of the pandemic sell-off).

Updated

Over in New York, stocks have dipped at the start of trading as investors worry about rising China tensions, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Dow has dropped by 120 points, or 0.5%. to 24,353.

This follows the earlier losses in Europe, after Beijing dropped its growth target and announced a new clampdown on dissent in Hong Kong.

Virus fears and China tensions weigh on oil

Oil markets retreated from 10 week highs by tumbling 5% on Friday morning as renewed trade tensions between the US and China fanned fears for the global economy.

The price of Brent crude fell from over $36 a barrel on Thursday to lows of $33.70 late Friday morning, before paring its losses to $35.40 a barrel by early afternoon.

Oil prices have climbed since ‘Black April’ when the glut of oil in the global market left by the impact of the coronavirus threatened to overwhelm the world’s available storage.

But fears over a looming global recession were reignited on Friday after the US warned China against imposing new security laws on Hong Kong and said it could have an impact on the favorable US treatment of the territory.

Oil analysts at Rystad Energy added that fundamentals of the oil market remain weak, and the threat of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is still weighing on the minds of oil traders.

“Oil production is still above demand levels and there is a lot of uncertainty about the future of how the Covid-19 pandemic will evolve,” said Paola Rodriguez Masiu of Rystad, adding:

“A second wave is not such a remote possibility and a new round of lockdowns could send prices back to much lower levels very quickly, and the market knows it.”

More reaction to the Marston’s-Carlsberg brewing merger, from beer blogger Steve Williams:

Here’s Ben Lockwood of craft brewer BrewDog:

More from John Porter:

Marston’s and Carlsberg merge brewing operations

Marston’s Park Brewery in Wolverhampton.
Marston’s Park Brewery in Wolverhampton. Photograph: David Jones/PA

Newsflash: UK pub chain Marston’s is merging its brewing operations with Carlsberg’s UK arm in a deal worth around £780m.

The two companies have just announced they will form a new “joint venture” called Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company (‘CMBC’), combining their brewing and distribution operations.

The deal values the Marston’s Brewing Business at up to £580m and the Carlsberg UK Brewing Business at £200m.

But Marston’s, which has been forced to shut its pubs under the lockdown, is only receiving 40% of CMBC + plus cash of up to £273m.

That will let Marston’s focus on its pub and accommodation business.

Shares in Marston’s have surged by almost 30%, up to 42p - on track for their highest close since mid-April (although they started the year at 128p).

Here’s some snap reaction from beer writer John Porter:

And Dan Coatsworth of Shares Magazine.

OBR: Record borrowing is 'initial taste' of Covid-19 crisis

Britain’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, says it will take many months before we know the full cost of the pandemic.

But, today’s public finances give an “initial taste” of the fiscal hit - with borrowing jumping at a record amount last month, at £62bn.

The OBR also points out that April’s deficit is more than the UK intended to borrow in the whole financial year.

OBR view on UK public finances
OBR view on UK public finances Photograph: OBR

The watchdog says:

  • Today’s data highlight the fiscal impact of the coronavirus crisis, but will be prone to material future revisions. The headline accrued data rely heavily on forecasts (including our reference scenario assumptions in places). And while cash measures reflect actual payments to and from government, any underlying pattern is clouded by timing effects and non-payment of taxes. It will take many months before the true scale of even the initial shock becomes clear.
  • Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) totalled £62.1 billion in April, £19.6 billion higher than market expectations. This takes the headline deficit to a record monthly level. The sharp rise on last year reflects both much higher spending and a significant deterioration in tax receipts.
  • HMRC cash receipts fell by 42 per cent on a year earlier. VAT accounted for the bulk of the deterioration as the Government’s VAT deferral scheme left VAT receipts negative in April. Income tax, corporation tax and fuel duties also saw sharp falls on a year earlier.
  • Central government spending was up 52 per cent in April, reflecting the assumed impact of the coronavirus job retention scheme (CJRS), higher grants to local authorities and higher public services spending, much of which was coronavirus related (including NHS spending).
  • Net debt rose by 17.4 per cent of GDP on a year earlier to 97.7 per cent in April – a sharper rise than at any point during the financial crisis. This reflects higher borrowing and the impact of Bank of England schemes on cash debt, but also the falls in nominal GDP over the coming months assumed in our reference scenario, which the ONS has used pending outturn data.

The good news for the UK is that it won’t struggle to finance its huge deficit.

The financial markets haven’t reacted badly to April’s record surge in borrowing, or the possibility that Britain needs to borrow, say, £300bn this year.

UK gilts (government bonds) are trading at record highs. Both two-year and five-year bonds are swapping hands at a yield (or interest rate) of below zero, showing that Britain could effectively borrow for free (as happened this week).

Wetherspoons has unveiled its plan to reopen its pubs while keeping customers and staff safe from Covid-19.

It include protective screens between tables, and bar staff wearing goggles, in an attempt to comply with physical distancing rules and limit the risk of infection.

My colleague Rob Davies explains:

The £11m plan will include two staff members per pub, or more in bigger venues, specifically tasked with disinfecting surfaces such as door handles, handrails and card payment machines.

Dedicated staff will also monitor the pub to ensure physical distancing is being maintained, while customers will be encouraged to use one of 10 hand sanitiser points in each pub.

Astonishingly, the UK government actually paid out more in VAT repayments than it took in through VAT receipts last month.

VAT, charged at up to 20% on a range of goods and services, is usually a reliable source of revenue. In April 2019 it brought in £13bn. But last month, VAT cash receipts were minus £0.9 billion.

That’s partly due to the shutdown, and partly due to the government’s deferral scheme for Value Added Tax payments, letting firms delay VAT due between 20 March 2020 and 30 June 2020.

UK VAT receipts
UK VAT receipts Photograph: IFS/ONS

The ONS estimates that most, but not all, of this deferred VAT will eventually be paid (but it all depends how many firms don’t survive the crisis, and how much damage is done to consumer spending).

Carl Emmerson and Isabel Stockton of the Institute of Fiscal Studies have a good explanation:

This sharp decline in revenue reflects both the economic slowdown and the VAT deferral scheme. Therefore – at least in large part – this represents a policy success: large parts of the economy have, as was intended, shut down to stop the spread of COVID-19, reducing VAT owed.

In addition, firms have been able to defer payment on their VAT liabilities until the end of the financial year. To the extent that businesses had short-term liquidity problems, this measure will help support them through the crisis and revenue will come in later in the year. However, some fraction of businesses is likely to face not just a liquidity but a solvency issue and not survive, meaning that some VAT revenues will never be paid.

The OBR assumes that 5% of the VAT that is deferred will never be repaid and, on this basis, forecast that the deferral cost will mean that ultimately revenues are depressed by £1.9 billion as a result.

European stock markets are still in the red, amid concerns that China is tightening its control of Hong Kong. Here’s the latest:

Around 800 jobs have been saved through a rescue deal for the Carluccio’s restaurant chain.

But sadly, 1,000 jobs are still being lost.

My colleague Sarah Butler has the details:

The billionaire Ranjit Singh Boparan has bought the Carluccio’s brand and 31 restaurants in a deal that rescues more than 800 jobs.

About 40 further outlets of the ailing chain, which called in administrators in March, will be permanently shut, with the loss of 1,000 jobs. All the Carluccio’s outlets are currently closed and its staff are on furlough.

Boparan, 53, has made his fortune in the food business and owns the Giraffe and Ed’s Easy Diner chains as well as Fox’s Biscuits and a vast supermarket chicken empire.

Phil Reynolds, a joint administrator of Carluccio’s and a partner at the corporate restructuring firm FRP, said: “The Covid-19 lockdown has put incredible pressure on businesses across the leisure sector, so it has been important to work as quickly and as decisively as possible in an extremely challenging business environment to secure a sale, which ensures the future of the Carluccio’s brand in the UK casual dining scene.”

Soros: EU should issue perpetual bonds

George Soros in 2017
George Soros in 2017 Photograph: Ferdinand Ostrop/AP

Billionaire investor-turned-philanthropist George Soros has warned that Covid-19 threatens the survival of the EU.

In a new Q&A session sent to reporters today, Soros warns that the economic damage of the pandemic will last longer than people think.

His solution -- ‘perpetual bonds’ to boost the EU budget and and fund relief efforts in hard-hit member states such as Italy and Spain.

These perpetual bonds would never mature, but would simply pay a coupon to whoever held them. Soros reckons the EU would only need to offer a 0.5% annual interest payment. That’s the equivalent of raising a whopping €1trn and only repay €5bn per year. Forever.

Soros says:

Exceptional circumstances require exceptional measures. Perpetual bonds or consols are such a measure. They should not even be considered in normal times. But if the EU is unable to consider it now, it may not be able to survive the challenges it currently confronts. This is not a theoretical possibility; it may be the tragic reality.

The coronavirus and climate change are threatening not only people’s lives but the survival of our civilization.

The European Union is particularly vulnerable because it is based on the rule of law and the wheels of justice turn proverbially slowly. By contrast the coronavirus moves very fast and in unpredictable ways.

In order to borrow so cheaply, the EU would need to maintain a AAA credit rating. That would mean agreeing taxes to cover the cost of servicing the bonds. A long process, that would be opposed by those who won’t accept collective borrowing.

But Soros has a solution:

The taxes only have to be authorized; they don’t need to be implemented. Authorization should take a few weeks, not a few years. Once they are authorized the EU could go ahead and issue perpetual bonds or consols.

Consols, incidentally, are an old financial instrument -- used by government such as Britain to finance spending. For example, debt issued to fund the First World War.

Burberry sales and profits hammed by virus

A closed Burberry luxury fashion store in Venice, Italy.
A closed Burberry luxury fashion store in Venice, Italy. Photograph: Simone Padovani/Awakening/Getty Images

Luxury fashion chain Burberry has also highlighted the slump in retail, reporting that sales fell by over a quarter as the Covid-19 pandemic began.

Like-for-like sales slumped by 27% in January-March, Burberry reports, due to around 60% of its retail outlets being closed by the end of March. This compares to +4% for the first 9 months of the year, the chain says.

Earnings also took a significant hit, with operating profits dropping to just £189m, from £437m.

Burberry explains:

Reported operating profit declined 57%, predominantly due to the impact of adjusting items relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has also forced Burberry to cancel its final dividend. It is still selling online, but demand for expensive clothes, handbags and accessories will obviously be lower than normal until the pandemic eases.

The company has also been doing its bit to help, saying it has:

Retooled our factory in Yorkshire to make gowns and sourced surgical masks through our global supply chain.

To date donated >150,000 pieces of PPE to NHS and care charities, funded research into a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and donated to charities tackling food poverty in the UK.

British households probably won’t return to their old spending patterns until the middle of this decade, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

CEBR economist Sam Miley has warned that the damage caused by the pandemic will linger on, long after lockdown measures have eased.

He writes:

Any potential lifting of restrictions going into June is likely to facilitate a slight return to retail activity, though the impact of lockdown throughout April and May means the picture for Q2 as a whole is entirely negative. Our forecasts estimate household consumption to fall by 19.5% over the course of the current quarter, before picking up from Q3 onwards.

Consumer activity is expected to remain suppressed for much longer than this, however, with lingering fears over the virus, the continued need for social distancing, and wider economic uncertainty all serving to restrict spending. In a stark illustration of the economic impacts of coronavirus, we do not expect household consumption to reach pre-crisis levels until the mid-2020s.

With restrictive measures as we currently know them highly unlikely to remain in place for this sort of timescale, this forecast highlights the longer-term effects of the current crisis on consumer spending, showing that the economic consequences will not solely be confined to the lockdown period.

UK retail sales and wages

Full story: Borrowing surge amid crisis

Here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on the jump in UK borrowing:

The government was forced to borrow a record £62bn to balance its books in April as the public finances felt the strain from a shutdown of the economy that saw high street spending plummet by an unprecedented 18%.

Figures from the office for national statistics highlighted the dramatic impact of the Covid-19 restrictions introduced in late March on activity – with public borrowing up by more than £50bn on the same month a year earlier and spending in clothes stores down by 50%.

The ONS said there had been a sharp drop in all the state’s main sources of revenue – income tax, national insurance, VAT and corporation tax coupled with a marked increase in spending. With the economy at a virtual standstill, the government borrowed as much last month as in the whole of the previous financial year.

Retail sales slump: What the experts say

Britain’s retailers are suffering from one of the most “profound shifts” in consumer behaviour in a century, says Lynda Petherick, managing director at Accenture.

April was always going to be the month when the full force of government lockdown measures would hit retailers. Clothing has continued to suffer, and though there are still some bright spots in grocery, “panic-buying” and online household goods orders subsided slightly as consumers continued to restrict their shopping trips.

Yes – these are hard times for the sector, however there are lessons to be learned if retailers are to come out the other side of the pandemic ready to respond. Online sales continue to reach new heights, suggesting that consumers have been quick to shift their buying habits – a trend which is only likely to continue. Retailers will need to act quickly and deliberately to improve their capabilities if they are to drive growth and profitability in an increasingly digital future.”

Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC, hopes that the worst may be over though, after the 18% slump in April:

However bad April’s figures are, we believe that retail has reached a turning point in the Covid-19 crisis. In the short term, May has already seen a loosening of lockdown restrictions across all the home nations. Indeed, enterprising operators have begun to reopen cautiously, from garden centres to some furniture stores coming back for the bank holiday weekend.

Economist Rupert Seggins has shown the unprecedented scale of the drop in April:

As rumoured, the UK government has extended its mortgage payment holiday scheme by three months.

It’s also extended the ban on home repossessions until the end of October, in an attempt to prevent the pandemic leading to rising homelessness.

My colleague Mark Sweney explains:

More than 1.8 million homeowners have taken a three-month mortgage holiday since the scheme was announced in March to help borrowers in financial difficulty because of the coronavirus crisis, according to Treasury figures. It was due to expire at the end of June.

“We’re doing everything we can to help people with their finances at this difficult time and that includes making sure people get the support they need with their mortgages,” said John Glen, the economic secretary to the Treasury. “That’s why we’re working with the banks and lenders to extend payment holidays if people need them.”

Covid-19 fears and Hong Kong tensions hit markets

Over in the City, shares are dropping as investors worry about the economic impact of Covid-19.

The FTSE 100 index of leading UK-listed shares dropped by 110 points, or 1.8%, in early trading to 5903. That wipes out most of this week’s gains. Nearly every share is down, led by financial services firms like Prudential (-9%), HSBC (-5.8%) and Standard Chartered (-4%).

The slump in retail sales, and the spike in borrowing, are a reminder of the economic cost of the pandemic. Recent hints from the Bank of England that it could impose negative interest rates in the UK are weighing on bank stocks too.

Shares are also down in Germany and France. Traders are worried that China has dropped its annual GDP target today - clearly growth this year is simply too bad [Beijing has an remarkable track record of achieving these targets...]

But there’s another reason for the sell-off: China’s ruling Communist Party has proposed a controversial national security law for Hong Kong to ban “treason, secession, sedition and subversion”.

The proposal, which could bypass Hong Kong’s lawmakers, would also allow the central government to set up “security organs” in the territory.

It’s likely to inflame tensions with pro-democracy supporters in the city state, and with the White House too, as Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank told clients:

This will likely draw a large amount of opposition given the pro-democracy protests in the country over the past year. This could be another wedge between China and the US, given how many US politicians on both sides of the aisle supported HK’s efforts last year.

European stock markets, May 22 2020
European stock markets in early trading today Photograph: Refinitiv

You can read today’s data yourself, here:

UK internet shopping hits record high

Online spending surged last month, as the lockdown encouraged more Britons to order groceries, wine, household goods and other items online.

The ONS reports that 30.7% of retail spending took place online in April, up from 19.1% a year earlier.

Simon French of Panmure Gordon has tweeted more details:

Over 14% of UK shops reported no turnover at all in April, due to the Covid-19 shutdown.

That includes 27% of clothing and footwear outlets (where takings halved last month!), and almost 40% of department stores.

This morning’s retail sales report also shows that sales at supermarkets dropped slightly compared with March.

But alcohol and tobacco outlets posted rising sales, defying the 18% plunge across the industry. Here’s the full details:

UK retail sales to April 2020

UK borrowing: What the economists say

Paul Dales of Capital Economics predicts Britain’s deficit could hit 17% of GDP this year. That’s an immense figure -- exceeding the last financial crisis, when the deficit hit 10% of annual output.

Dales explains:

With little prospect of a swift return this year towards pre-crisis levels of economic activity, we expect borrowing to total £340bn (17.5% of GDP) over 2020/21, which would be over £40bn more than the OBR’s forecast.

Overall, the small easing of the lockdown on 13th May probably means that retail sales started to edge higher in May and that the government might not have had to borrow quite as much as in April. But it’s very clear that the retail activity will remain worrying weak for some time yet and that the government will have to borrow a few hundred billion pounds this year.

Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at financial services group Equals, says we should welcome the jump in borrowing - the alternative is worse.

The UK’s budget deficit is at the highest level since records began in 1993. This is a good thing; if your house is on fire, you don’t ask the Fire Brigade to only use a certain amount of water.

The water will need to keep flowing and the deficit will continue to grow because the alternative – a deeply scarred economy - is far worse.”

Howard Archer of EY Item Club points out that falling tax receipts also hit the public finances:

Central government receipts fell 26.5% year-on-year in April, as they were impacted by a combination of sharply contracting economic activity, markedly rising unemployment and weaker earnings, and companies being allowed to delay tax payments.

“Income and capital gains tax receipts were down 36.0% year-on-year in April, as jobs were lost and pay hit. There was also a fall of 14.1% in corporation tax receipts while VAT receipts were down 43.6% year-on-year.

Here’s some snap reaction to the surge in UK government borrowing to £62bn last month.

The BBC’s Dharshini David points out that Britain just borrowed more in April than it had expected to borrow in the whole financial year, before the pandemic struck:

Her colleague Kamal Ahmed has some historical context, for those who can’t remember 1993 (my main memory is of a young Shane Warne....)

Torsten Bell of Resolution Foundation says government borrowing is going to rocket this year, to protect us from even more economic harm:

John Hawksworth of PwC predicts the UK could borrow as much as £300bn in the current financial year -- six times as much as previously planned.

Introduction: Government borrowing hits £62bn in April

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

We start with some breaking news -- UK government borrowing hit its highest level on record last month amid the Covid-19 pandemic, as retail sales across the country plunged at a record pace.

The Office for National Statistics has just reported that public borrowing in April is estimated to have surged to £62.1bn. That’s £51.1bn more than in April 2019, and the highest borrowing in any month since records began in January 1993.

UK public finances to April 2020
UK public finances to April 2020 Photograph: Office for National Statistics

Indeed, it’s almost as much as the UK borrowed in the whole of the last financial year:

This is an early sign of the massive cost of the government’s attempts to limit the damage of the Covid-19 crisis, including its jobs guarantee scheme. It’s also due to a sharp drop in tax takings.

But the ONS also cautions that “the effects of COVID-19 are not fully captured in this release”.

The ONS has also reported that retail sales across the UK slumped at an unprecedented rate in April.

Sales fell by over 18% compared with March, due to the widespread shutdown of non-essential shop, taking turnover down to its lowest level since 2005.

UK retail sales to April 2020

The ONS explains:

  • The volume of retail sales in April 2020 fell by a record 18.1%, following the strong monthly fall of 5.2% in March 2020.
  • All sectors saw a monthly decline in volume sales except for a record increase in sales for non-store retailing at 18.0% and a continued increase in sales for alcohol stores at 2.3%.
  • The volume of clothing sales in April 2020 plummeted by 50.2% when compared with March 2020, which had already fallen by 34.9% on the previous month.

This comes as fears over the UK hospitality industry grow, with many pubs, bars and restaurants warning they will close some outlets permanently.

Stock markets are also under pressure, after China abandoned its long-held practice of setting a GDP target - presumably because growth has been so badly hit by the pandemic.

More details and reaction to follow!

The agenda

  • 7am BST: UK public sector net borrowing for April
  • 7am BST: UK retail sales for April

Updated

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