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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Growth slows in Britain and the US as GDP reports miss forecasts - as it happened

The US Capitol in Washington DC
The US Capitol in Washington DC Photograph: Michael Reynolds/EPA

Closing post: GDP Day is over

Phew! Economists and investors are catching their breath after a busy day dominated by growth figures from the eurozone, the UK and America.

There’s some disappointment that Britain, the United States and France all grew slower than expected in January to March. But there’s no panic.

American GDP is expected to rebound this quarter, while the UK seems to be settling into a period of slower growth due to the pick-up in inflation, and some Brexit uncertainty.

Here’s our news story about the US GDP:

And here’s our UK GDP story:

Thanks for reading and commenting. Hope you have a great weekend. GW

Here’s today’s Nasdaq record high:

Larry Fink: US is growing slower than France!

Larry Fink, the head of fund management firm BlackRock, has said it’s “terrible” that America grew slower than France in the last quarter.

Fink is speaking at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, where he expressed concern about the US slowdown.

[Reminder, we learned today that French GDP rose by 0.3%, or 1.2% on the US-style ‘annualised basis’].

Wall Street calm after GDP miss

The US stock market isn’t too concerned by the growth figures.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dipped in early trading, but the technology-focused Nasdaq hit a new record high.

That’s due to Amazon and Alphabet (Google), which both posted strong results after the closing bell on Thursday night.

US stock markets in early trading

Updated

The weather is copping some blame for the slowdown in US growth.

Unusually mild conditions meant Americans spent less money heating their homes and offices during the winter, which equates to lower economic activity.

Michelle Meyer, chief United States economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, explains:

“Warm weather meant consumers weren’t spending as much on electricity and natural gas and home heating.

Government spending can also be affected by seasonal factors, and defense spending is especially volatile.”

Here’s Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics, explaining how weak consumption dragged the American economy back down in the last three months:

The slowdown in the first quarter this year was principally due to a near-stagnation in consumption, which increased by only 0.3% annualised.

Household spending was held down by a drop back in motor vehicle sales from a near-record high at the end of last year and the unseasonably warm winter weather, which depressed utilities spending. But consumer confidence is unusually high and real personal disposable income increased at a 4% annualised pace in the first quarter. Consumption growth will rebound in the second quarter.

Another former Democratic official argues that we shouldn’t panic about the US growth figures.

Jason Furman, who chaired president Obama’s council of economic advisors, points out that growth will likely rebound in the April-June quarter.

It may be tempting to contrast Donald Trump’s promise to “Make America Great Again” with the news that US economic growth has hit a three year low on his watch.

This certainly isn’t the start that Trump had in mind during the campaign, when he boasted that America could grow by more than 4% per year if he were in charge.

But I don’t think you can really blame the new president for the slowdown in Q1 (especially if you’re also criticising him for not getting much done in his first 100 days). The consequences of Trump’s presidency will only emerge over many months and years.

Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management, explains:

We haven’t yet had the expected fiscal stimulus from Trump, the effects of which may not be seen until the end of this year or the start of 2018.

While investors might be disappointed with the reading, it has been a steady start to the year with inflation looking benign, a resilient jobs market and positive PMI data, all likely to boost returns for investors.”

Macro-economic strategist George Pearkes concurs:

Updated

Jared Bernstein, a former advisor to VP Joe Biden, points out that America’s economy has posted solid enough growth over the last year:

Some context:

As you can see, America’s economy also grew modestly in Q1 2016, and actually shrank in Q1 2014. The first three months of 2015 weren’t amazing either.

Here’s Associated Press’s take on the US growth figures:

The U.S. economy turned in the weakest performance in three years in the January-March quarter as consumers sharply slowed their spending. The result repeats a pattern that has characterized the recovery: lackluster beginnings to the year.

The Commerce Department says the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, grew by just 0.7% in the first quarter following a gain of 2.1% in the fourth quarter.

The slowdown primarily reflected slower consumer spending, which grew by just 0.3 percent. That was the poorest showing in more than seven years. Analysts blame in part the unusually warm winter, which meant less spending on utility bills.

Economists believe the slowdown will be temporary. They forecast GDP growth will rebound to 3% or better in the current quarter.

US economic growth falls to lowest pace since 2014

The White House
The White House Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Breaking! America’s economy has slowed sharply, posting its weakest growth in three years.

US GDP rose by an annualised rate of just 0.7% in the first three months of 2017.

That’s equal to a quarterly rate of less than 0.2%, and means that the first growth figures of the Trump administration are a disappointment.

This is a sharp slowdown compared to the final quarter of 2016, when the US economy grew at an annualised pace of 2.1%.

As in the UK, consumer spending was partly to blame, with car sales rather weak.

Here’s Bloomberg’s snap take:

Three down, one to go....

After disappointing GDP figures from the UK and France, but stronger growth in Spain, we’re now turning to America to see how its economy fared in the first quarter of this year.....

Summary: UK growth misses forecasts

Time for a quick recap of this morning’s UK growth report.

Economists are warning that the Brexit slowdown has begun, after Britain’s economic growth has more than halved to its lowest rate since the EU referendum.

UK GDP grew by just 0.3% in January to March, down from 0.7% in the previous quarter. That’s a weaker performance than the City expected.

The service sector suffered the brunt of the slowdown, as rising prices hurt the retail, hotels and restaurant sector.

UK GDP
UK GDP, quarter on quarter

The data show that the drop in the pound since last summer is now hurting the domestic economy. But manufacturing grew by 0.5%, suggesting sterling’s depreciation has also boosted UK factories.

Chancellor Philip Hammond has said that the UK economy remains resilient.

But shadow chancellor John McDonnell, and TUC head Frances O’Grady, have both warned that Britain faces a new cost of living squeeze.

Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics says the consumer-driven slowdown has begun, as incomes are hit by slowing employment and wage growth as well as rising inflation.

One quarter of slow growth is not definitive proof that the economy is on the ropes. But the pressure on consumers’ incomes looks set to build this year as retailers pass on higher import prices; we still expect CPI inflation to exceed 3% in the second half of this year.

The British Chambers of Commerce fears that the UK is entering a period of sluggish growth, just as the Brexit negotiations begin.

With growth unlikely to pick up, Barclays predict UK interest rates will remain on hold until at least the end of 2018.

Updated

The pound has not been rattled by the slowdown in UK growth.

Instead, sterling hit a new seven-month high of $1.2957 after the GDP figures were released.

The pound is now on track for its best month since the Brexit vote last June:

The pound vs the US dollar over the last 12 months
The pound vs the US dollar over the last 12 months Photograph: Thomson Reuters

As mentioned earlier, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has become the latest bank to revise its pound forecasts higher.

BAML currency analyst Kamal Sharma told clients that

The announcement of an 8th June general election was a game-changing event for sterling.

Sterling will face Brexit challenges but its day of reckoning has been pushed further into the future.”

BAML now expect the pound to bottom out at $1.25 in the current quarter and finish the year at $1.27, compared with their respective forecasts of $1.15 and $1.19 previously.

The chancellor has now tweeted about the GDP figures:

This chart, from CBI economist Alpesh Paleja, shows why the UK growth rate almost halved in the last quarter.

As you can see, the retail and hospitality sector (in green) had been a key driver of growth in October-December, but shrank in January-March.

The looming shadow of Brexit means the UK economy is unlikely to accelerate over the next couple of years, warns Morgan Stanley economist Melanie Baker.

She writes:

We expect this slower quarterly pace of growth to persist in 2017, reflecting our assumption that higher inflation will dampen real consumer spending growth and an assumption of subdued business investment as Brexit approaches

As this chart shows, Morgan Stanley predict growth could inch up to 0.4% in April to June, but then dipping back to around 0.3%:

MS growth forecasts

John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has responded to the news that growth slowed to 0.3% the last quarter:

“Today’s GDP figures reveal the threat to living standards under the Tories.

“Growth for the first three months of 2017 was only half of what was expected. It comes on the back of new forecasts last week from leading independent forecasters showing growth and earnings expectations slashed and inflation revised up.”

“There is no hiding from the truth. The Tories’ economic plan has undermined the UK economy and is a threat to working people’s living standards.

“This General Election is a choice between a Labour Party who will stand up for the many and a Tory Party which only looks after the privileged few.”

There’s not been much other reaction from the campaign trail; The Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn thinks he knows why....

TUC: UK faces living standards crisis

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady fears that the alarm bells are ringing in the UK economy, now that the consumer slowdown is underway.

“Today’s GDP figures do not bode well for the future.

“Consumer spending has been propping up the UK economy. But with pay packets squeezed, families have less money to spend on the high street.

“The next government cannot rely on household spending alone to drive growth, especially when another living standards crisis is on the horizon.

“Politicians have long promised to rebalance the economy. They need to spell out at this election how they will deliver, starting with an industrial strategy that creates good jobs where they’re needed most.”

But writing in The Times, Ed Conway suggests the Conservatives will play down economic issues in this election:

The slowdown in Britain’s economy will prevent the Bank of England raising interest rates until at least 2019.

That’s according to analysts at Barclays, who have issued a good note on the GDP figures.

They argue:

In our view, given rising inflationary pressures and the increasing likelihood of negative real wage growth in the coming months, household consumption will continue to ease over the course of 2017. All in all, we believe this strengthens our view that the Bank of England MPC will leave its monetary policy stance unchanged over our forecast horizon (until end-2018).

Barclays also predict that the UK economy will keep slowing this year, as “households are forced to tighten their belts”.

Barclays growth forecasts
Barclays growth forecasts Photograph: Barclays

Kalum Pickering of Berenberg says we shouldn’t panic about the slowdown in the UK economy, even though growth halved in the last quarter:

While the deceleration looks a little scary, the UK’s trend rate is around 0.4%. The expansion is entering its eighth year and the labour market is at full employment. Against this backdrop, growth with some volatility around its trend rate during the middle of the cycle is more than satisfactory.

Via Berenberg Bank, here’s a neat chart showing UK growth by sector over the last decade:

Britain’s economic growth by sector
Britain’s economic growth by sector Photograph: Berenberg Bank

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), believes Britain is entering a “sustained period of more sluggish growth”.

June’s snap general election won’t help the situation, he warns:

Inflation is expected to continue to rise, increasing the squeeze on consumer spending power and firm’s profit margins, pushing growth lower. The BCC’s own Quarterly Economic Survey confirms that inflation is a key risk to the UK’s growth prospects, with businesses under increasing pressure to raise prices. Uncertainty over the impact of Brexit and the distraction of a General Election are also likely to weigh on economic activity over the near term.

Hammond: UK economy is resilient

Philip Hammond

Chancellor Philip Hammond has just been interviewed about the GDP figures by Sky News, outside the Treasury.

Hammond argues that the UK economy is in good shape, despite the slowdown in the last quarter.

“Employment at record highs and it’s set to go higher still”, says Hammond, adding that “The British economy is resilient”.

Q: But isn’t the slowdown in growth due to Theresa May’s Brexit plans?

These negotiations will be “tough and complex”, Hammond replies.

That’s why we need strong and stable leadership and a clear mandate, to get the best possible deal, he concludes.

The slowdown in Britain’s service sector is worrying, because services firms make up around 80% of the economy.

Dutch bank ING says households are being squeezed, and fears that Brexit uncertainty will compound the problem:

Katie Allen: Cost of living takes its toll

Here’s my colleague Katie Allen’s take on today’s GDP figures:

Britain’s economy slowed more than expected in the opening months of this year, with GDP growth slipping to 0.3% from 0.7% the previous quarter as the post-referendum rise in living costs took its toll on British households.

The news adds to signs that the resilience seen for the UK economy in the wake of the Brexit vote is now waning and will come as a blow to Theresa May’s government as it banks on a solid victory in the snap election on 8 June.

Economists had expected growth to slow more modestly to 0.4% in the first quarter, according to a poll by Reuters. The 0.3% growth rate was the slowest for a year. Statisticians said the biggest drag was the retail sector, echoing other signs shoppers are cutting back....

Click here for the full story:

Scotia Bank: It's fair to blame Brexit

Winter weather Jan 3rd 2016A car drives through flood water on the A93 north of Blairgowrie in Scotland.

Alan Clarke of Scotia Bank sums up the slowdown:

To put the pace of growth into context, this is like driving away for the bank holiday weekend, hitting traffic and slowing from 70mph to 30mph… and it is starting to rain...

Clarke also believes that Britain’s exit from the EU is responsible:

This weakness is likely to be blamed on Brexit. That is probably fair, albeit in an indirect sense. The fears leading up to Brexit were that growth would stall due to a dive in confidence, hiring and investment. That hasn’t happened. What did happen is the pound dived, pushing inflation sharply higher and that is causing consumer spending and hence overall growth to slow.

The good news is that the surge in inflation is probably temporary and the squeeze on growth should pass. However, it is probably going to take another year before growth on back on an upwards trajectory.

UK economy slows: Instant reaction

Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management, says that weak pay growth and the rising cost of living is hurting the UK economy.

“After a GDP reading which defied expectation at the end of last year, all eyes were on the Q1 data to see whether the Brexit effect would have affected UK economic performance at the start of 2017. Rising inflation and slow wage growth have dampened consumer demand and reduced retail spending, which were helping drive growth last year after Britain’s vote to leave the EU.

On the other hand though, the increased attractiveness of sterling in the wake of the referendum has boosted manufacturing and international exports, making headway in rebalancing the UK economy.

Dean Turner, Economist at UBS Wealth Management, fears growth will remain modest this year.

“Today’s print of 0.3% represents a sharp fall from the giddy pace of growth we witnessed a last quarter. Rising inflation seems to be having a negative impact on the parts of the economy exposed to the consumer. Looking ahead, we expect that pressure on real household incomes will keep growth subdued.

Mark Sismey-Durrant, chief executive officer at Hampshire Trust Bank, blames economic uncertainty for the slowdown:

“Today’s decline in GDP demonstrates the short term uncertainty being felt among both businesses and consumers. Businesses like certainty and with the impact of the snap General Election and the evolving EU negotiations, perhaps some economic impact is inevitable.

However, we believe that the outlook offers room for optimism, based on the resilience the economy has demonstrated since the EU Referendum.

Sky’s economics editor Ed Conway agrees that consumers are cutting back:

ITV’s Noreena Hertz reckons Theresa May won’t be happy:

UK GDP: The key points

Here are the key points from today’s report into the UK economy:

  • UK gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017, the slowest rate of growth since Quarter 1 2016.
  • Slower growth in Quarter 1 2017 was mainly due to services, which grew by 0.3% compared with growth of 0.8% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016.
  • In Quarter 1 2017 there were falls in several important consumer-focused industries, such as retail sales and accommodation; this was due in part to prices increasing more than spending.
  • Production, construction and agriculture grew by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively in Quarter 1 2017.
  • GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.1% during Quarter 1 2017.

Today’s GDP repost shows that Britain’s economy is suffering the impact of higher inflation.

Retailers, hotels and restaurants all suffered falling growth, after being forced to hike prices due to higher input costs (because sterling fell sharply after the EU referendum).

The ONS says:

Retail trade and accommodation services were the main contributors to the negative growth in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector. These industries were impacted by increases in prices.

GDP detail

Updated

UK service sector slows sharply

Britain’s dominant service sector has suffered a significant slowdown in the last quarter.

Services output expanded by just 0.3% in January-March, down from 0.8% in October-December.

Industrial production grew by 0.3%, including a 0.5% rise in manufacturing output, construction expanded by 0.2% and agriculture grew by 0.2%.

UK GDP
UK GDP Photograph: ONS

UK GROWTH SLOWS

Breaking! Britain’s economic growth slowed sharply in the first three months of this year.

UK GDP expanded by just 0.3% in January to March, the Office for National Statistics says.

That’s down from 0.7% in the final three months of 2016, and the slowest reading since the first three months of last year.

More to follow....

A former top advisor to ex-chancellor George Osborne tweets:

Tension is building in the City, with just four minutes to go until the UK growth figures are released.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says a surprise reading can’t be ruled out....

After surprising everyone with 0.7% growth in the final quarter of 2016, the UK is expected to have seen a sharp drop-off in Q1 2017, analysts estimating that the country’s economy expanded by just 0.4% across the first 3 months of the year.

The GDP readings for the last few quarters, however, have tended to beat the Brexit-inspired gloom, so there is room for a shock this morning.

Pound hits seven-month high

Zing! Sterling has just hit its highest level against the US dollar since last September.

The pound has jumped by 0.3% this morning to $1.2939, a seven-month high.

It’s also a little higher against the euro, at €1.1881.

The rally comes as Bank of America tears up its gloomy forecasts for the pound. It now predicts that sterling will average $1.25 this quarter, having previously expected it to slump to $1.15.

Why GDP isn't perfect

Gross domestic product is the economics world’s favoured way of estimating growth and output. But it’s not a perfect measure.

GDP tries to pin down how well, or badly, a country is performing by estimating how much was produced, spent, and earned across its economy. It show the output across services, industry, construction and agriculture, household and government spending, business investment, and net trade.

But it doesn’t show whether the economic growth is being shared fairly, whether it is reducing inequality or creating it, whether economic activity is environmentally harmful, or

Robert F. Kennedy gave the definitive explanation of GDP’s flaws almost half a century ago, in a famous speech:

It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl.

It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman’s rifle and Speck’s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.

It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.

And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.

Listen: Bobby Kennedy on GDP

It’s worth remembering that the UK’s economy has actually held up pretty well since the EU referendum.

GDP rose by 0.5% in July-September last year, accelerating to 0.7% in October-December, dashing forecasts that a Brexit vote would quickly trigger a recession.

On a longer-term basis, Britain’s economy has already posted 16 quarter of growth in a row. Unless today’s report is a real shocker, that should become 17 quarters.....

UK GDP

spanish flag.

Breaking! Spain has shown Britain how it’s done, by reporting strong growth figures for the last three months.

Spanish GDP expanded by a punchy 0.8% in Q1, ahead of expectations, and extending its recent recovery.

On an annual basis, Spain grew by 3.0%.

Why today's UK GDP report really matters

Today’s UK growth figures, due at 9.30am, are significant for several reasons.

First, they’re the most important economic data to be released before the general election on June 8th. So a strong GDP report would bolster the Conservative Party.

But... Economists are expecting that growth slowed to its lowest rate in 12 months -- to around 0.4% to 0.5%, from 0.7% in the fourth quarter.

So if the GDP report is disappointing, opposition parties should be able to land some blows on the government.

Secondly, there’s Brexit. These figures will cover the three months before Theresa May triggered Article 50. Crucially, they also cover the period when the PM gave her Lancaster House speech, committing to leave the single market. Will that have dented business confidence? And has rising inflation, due to the slump in sterling last year, started to hurt consumers?

Thirdly, there’s the impact on the markets. The pound has quietly been recovering in recent weeks, back up to $1.29 against the US dollar from just $1.21 in mid-March. If GDP misses forecasts, then the pound may get tonked.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have predicted that growth fell to 0.4%, setting the UK up for a year of slower growth.

Even with the expectation of activity recovering in March, the broader narrative remains that we look for GDP growth to slow in 2017.

Here’s a good chart from the FT, showing how France’s growth has fallen back:

There’s a flurry of banking news this morning too.

Royal Bank of Scotland, which is majority-owned by the UK taxpayer, has posted its first quarterly profit since 2015. It made £259m in the three months to March, beating forecasts.

Barclays has announced plans to hire 2,000 extra staff over the next few years, as part of a new push into technology. Can Fintech help to replace City jobs lost due to Brexit?

And not to be outdone, the government has cut its stake in Lloyds Banking Group to just 0.89% - more than eight years after taxpayers bailing it out.

UK house price growth hits four-year low

We’ve just learned that the slowdown in Britain’s housing market is gathering pace -- another sign that the economy may be losing momentum.

Nationwide has reported that prices FELL in April for the second month running (on a seasonally adjusted basis). And on an annual basis, prices only rose by 2.6% - the slowest rate of increase since June 2013.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, says it may be due to rising inflation, which is driving down real incomes.

Also, prices may simply have risen too high, Gardner adds:

“There may also be more fundamental reasons for the slowdown. House price growth has been outstripping earnings growth for a sustained period of time, steadily eroding affordability on a number of metrics. For example, the typical house price is currently 6.1 times average earnings, well above the long run average of 4.3 times earnings, and close to the all-time high of 6.4 times recorded in 2007.

Nationwide house prices

France’s economy was dragged back by disappointing trade figures (because exports fell while imports rose).

This breakdown of the GDP figures shows how net trade (commerce exterieur) was negative for growth.

French GDP: The Details
French GDP: The Details Photograph: INSEE

INSEE explains:

Foreign trade weighs on growth

Exports decreased in the first quarter of 2017 (-0.7% after + 1.4%), particularly in transport equipment. At the same time, imports accelerated (+ 1.5% after + 0.8%). In particular, purchases of refined petroleum products are rebounding and those of other industrial products are growing more vigorously. Overall, foreign trade weighed on growth, at -0.7 point, after a contribution of +0.2 point the previous quarter.

Updated

Bert Colijn, senior colleague at ING Bank, says the French growth figures are a disappointment:

Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet agrees, but is encouraged that French businesses are investing more in new equipment and buildings.

French GDP disappoints with 0.3% growth

Breaking: France’s economy grew slower than expected in the first three months of this year.

French GDP expanded by just 0.3%, missing the 0.4% which economists had predicted.

It’s not all bad news, though - INSEE, the stats body, has revised growth in the last quarter of 2016 up to 0.5%, from 0.4%.

French GDP

French consumers dragged growth back; household spending slowed to just 0.1%.

Business investment jumped, though, to +0.9% from 0.6% -- an encouraging sign.

But...exports fell sharply (-0.7% from + 1.4%) while imports accelerated (+ 1.5% from +0.8%).

Updated

The agenda: A bonanza of growth figures

Good morning.

We’re about to get a deluge of economic data that will show how some of the world’s largest economies have performed in 2017.

Growth figures from Britain, America, France and Spain are all being released over the next seven hours. And for different reasons, they should all be fascinating.

Britain’s GDP report will be pored over for signs that Brexit is hurting the economy. Economists expect growth to have slowed in January-March to around 0.4% to 0.5%, down from 0.7% in October-December 2016.

France’s figures will highlight the scale of the challenge facing either Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen.

Spain’s data will show whether the eurozone’s battered periphery is still recovering....

And America’s growth figures are the first school report since Donald Trump became US president. And the bad news is that economists predict a slowdown, as consumers cut back.

Frugal U.S. consumers seen holding back first-quarter GDP

Here’s the timings:

  • France: Just released
  • Spain: 8am BST
  • UK: 9.30am BST
  • United States: 1.30pm BST

It’s also going to be a busy morning in the banking sector, with Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland reporting results...

Updated

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