It’s four weeks until Britain goes to the polls but though the Tories are consistently scoring strongly, they are unlikely to be taking anything for granted.
Generally, campaigns do not make that much of a difference. But 2017 proved to be different. Jeremy Corbyn closed the gap on Theresa May and early talk of a Tory majority was replaced by the reality of a hung parliament.
Two years later and the situation is, in some ways, very different. Mr Corbyn is far better known to the public and Boris Johnson, though new to the role of prime minister, has been one of the most recognisable politicians for many years.
Data suggests Labour will unlikely pull off such an exceeding of expectations this time. So far it has been largely stable. There is a little variation between polling companies but the Conservatives are generally on about 40 per cent, with Labour around 29 per cent and the Lib Dems in third at about 16 per cent.
Some polls are showing a decline of the Brexit Party, down to 4-6 per cent. This fall may be hastened now candidates will not be standing in Tory seats.
It is still early days and polls are only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the given time; they are used to explain, not to predict. It is always good to remember that most people are far less interested than you might imagine.
Many will start taking notice only in the final few days, some not even then. A week is a long time in politics. We still have four “long times” remaining.
Joe Twyman is co-founder of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll and presents the Polling Politics podcast
