Evening summary
- Boris Johnson has described the roadmap he has published for the lifting of lockdown measures in England as “a one-way road to freedom”. He made the comment at a No 10 press conference, after he spent more than two hours in the Commons setting out his plans to MPs. In the chamber Johnson rejected a call from lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs for all restrictions to be lifted at the end of April, once all adults have had their first dose of vaccine (see 4.47pm), and in his press conference he insisted that he was being cautious. In response to a question from the political editor of the Daily Mail, who suggested he had become a risk-averse “gloomster”, Johnson said:
The crocus of hope is poking through the frost and spring is on its way both literally and metaphorically. But I won’t be buccaneering, as you put it, with people’s lives, and nor will anybody in government.
I think when people look at this road map I think actually it’s about as dynamic as it’s possible to be under the circumstances and with disease and infection where we are.
If you’d said to me a few months ago that by June 21 we were going to be in a position where we thought it was really credible to open up everything including nightclubs, I would have struggled to believe you, quite frankly. But that’s the miracle of the vaccination programme that has delivered that.
Johnson claimed that his lockdown plan would be driven by data, not dates, and that the plan for restrictions to be lifted in four stages, tied to four specific dates, with a five-week gap between them, was provisional. But, as Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall points out, the tests being used by the government to determine when further easing can take place (see 12.49pm), are vague.
CONCLUSIONS-the "data not dates" and "v cautious" framing isn't really right, it's much more nuanced.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) February 22, 2021
-The document the govt published today was very detailed except on the very thing we've heard so much about- data.
-It was much more detailed about the dates.
-The other framing was about caution.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) February 22, 2021
-It's certainly true that there's time (five weeks) between relaxation to measure effects. That is def cautious.
-But the time frame the govt has opted for, most measures relaxed by summer is on the ambitious end of what SAGE/Spi-M discuss.
Here is the 60-page document (pdf) setting out the plan. And here is a summary by my colleague Peter Walker.
- Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has hinted that he would back vaccines being made compulsory for health workers. Speaking at the press conference, he stressed that this was a political matter that was not up to him. But he said:
It is a professional responsibility for doctors to do things which will protect their patients. And I expect that to be a professional responsibility for all other health and social care staff as well.
He also said there were precedents for rules of this kind. For example, surgeons were expected to have the hepatitis B vaccine, he said.
- Johnson has said “there may well be a role” for domestic “Covid passports”. For weeks the government has been saying it does not favour using vaccination certificates to control people’s access to jobs or venues or services in the UK. But Johnson has now ordered a review into this. Explaining the change of approach at the press conference, he said:
There are clearly some quite complex issues, some ethical issues, issues about discrimination and so on, to what extent can governments either compel or indeed forbid use of such certification. I think all that needs to be gone into so we are going to have a review of the whole issue before we come to it ...
There may well be a role for certification but we just need to get it right.
Updated
Johnson says he does not think Covid will lead to 'fundamental change' in city life
Johnson says there will be changes to city centres as a result of the pandemic. There may be opportunities for more housing in city centres. But he does not think there will be “fundamental change” to the way cities work. He says, the more people can communicate virtually, the more people want to talk face to face. He thinks that will come back, he says, provided people have confidence about coming back to city centres.
I don’t believe this is going to mean a fundamental change to the way our life in our big cities really works ...
I remember [when he chaired Transport for London] the better remote communication gets and the more people can see each other and talk on mobile devices ... the more actually they want to see each other face to face.
And that, I’m sure, will come back and I think that London, our great cities, will be full of buzz and life and excitement again, provided that people have confidence about coming back into those city centres.
I’m a sceptic when people say this is going to lead to a massive change in urban life, I’m doubtful.
I believe our great cities will bounce back along with the rest of the economy once we’ve got this road map delivered.
He says Covid could become something like flu, that we have to manage.
Then life will come to normal, he says.
And that’s it. The press conference is over.
Updated
Vallance says he thinks it is likely people will be wearing masks next winter. But he says he does not expect “a whole raft of NPIs [non-pharmaceutical interventions] in place” in place next winter affecting where people can go.
Johnson claims he 'won't be buccaneering with people's lives'
Q: You have become very cautious, unlike the PM who won the election. Have you become a gloomster?
Johnson does not accept that. But he says he will not be “buccaneering” with people’s lives.
The crocus of hope is poking through the frost, and spring is on its way, both literally and metaphorically. But I won’t be buccaneering, as you put it, with people’s lives, and nor will anybody in government.
(Critics would says that this was exactly the mistake Johnson did make last year, when repeatedly talked up the prospects of an early return to normality and when he resisted calls for a second lockdown as case numbers started.)
Q: It is reported that you had concerns about all pupils going back at once. Do you? And can you reassure parents this will be safe?
Whitty says he was surprised to read this story. He had denied it. It was reported anyway.
He says there are big benefits from children being in school. And the risks to children are low. Given the small residual risks, the benefits of children being in schools are clear.
But there is an issue to do with the impact of school reopening on R, the reproduction number. He says the Easter holidays will provide a natural firebreak. And measures like testing, and the wider use of masks, will bring down the risks posed by school reopening to R rising, he suggests.
He says schools need to be a safe working environment. Relative to other professions, like nursing and social care, teaching is not a high risk profession.
Vallance says it is crucial children go back to school. The environment has been made safe. When children go back, there will be just three weeks before the Easter holiday.
Q: How can you be sure these measures will be irreversible? Will you have to resign if there is another lockdown?
Johnson says he hopes this will irreversible. He thinks the timetable is reasonable.
He does not address the resignation point.
Johnson says there 'may well be role' for domestic Covid passports
Q: There is no reference to R in the four tests. (See 12.49pm.) What rate of infection should cause us concern?
Whitty says, until we had vaccination, rising cases always meants rising deaths.
But vaccination can break that link, he says.
He says lifting restrictions will lead to a “surge” in cases.
But vaccinations can do the “heavy lifting”, he says.
Q: You seem to have changed your mind on vaccine certificates. (See 7.08pm.) Why?
Johnson says vaccine certificates are likely to be important for international travel.
As for using them domestically, the issues are complex. Can government compel or forbid their use? He says it is worth having a review to look at these issues.
There may well be a role for certification - we just need to get it right.
Q: How many more deaths are we likely to see when restrictions are eased? And what do you expect vaccine rollout to be?
Whitty says he is wary of putting numbers into the public domain. Often they are not meaningful.
But he says, every year, flu kills about 9,000 people.
Coronavirus will add to the list of illnesses that kills like this, he says. He says it is likely to be a something that kills people every winter.
On uptake, he says it has been incredibly high. In some cases it has been well over 90%. He hopes this continues.
Vallance says deaths can be minimised by going slowly and everyone sticking to the rules.
Q: Will the UK commit to a fair and equitable global vaccine rollout once the top nine groups have been vaccinated?
Yes, says Johnson. He says the government supports Covax. There is no point having a vaccination programme confined to one country.
(One suspect that the PM’s definition of an equitable global vaccine rollout and the questioner’s are not the same.)
And Johnson starts coughing. Bad sign ...
Q: How will you continue with the vaccine rollout when people start needing their second dose?
Johnson says the government thinks it has the supplies in place to keep up the current pace of vaccination.
Whitty says the PM also asked him to talk about the five-week gap between each stage of lockdown easing.
He says it takes about four weeks to measure what impact lifting measures is having.
That is why a five-week gap has been scheduled: four weeks for the data to emerge, and a week to evaluate it.
He ends by stressing that there are still a lot of people in hospital. Here is the slide he showed earlier with hospital figures.
Whitty is now summing up the results of the studies out today about the effectiveness of the vaccines.
My colleague Sarah Boseley wrote those findings up here.
Whitty shows the figures for vaccinations.
And he shows a chart showing Covid hospital outcomes, by age. This shows that most deaths are amongst people over the age of 70, who have all now been offered the vaccine.
But there are large numbers of younger people in hospital with Covid too, Whitty says.
Whitty is now presenting the slides.
Here are the latest figures for deaths.
Johnson says we cannot persist indefinitely with lockdown.
The balance of judgement - whether to lock down, or ease off - is now shifting in our favour.
He says the summer will be “incomparably better” - and there will be no going back.
Johnson says these measures are for England.
But the government will continue to do what it can to protect jobs in all parts of the UK, he says.
Johnson is now summing up what happens when steps one, two, three and four are reached.
There is a summary here.
Johnson says more deaths inevitable whenever lockdown lifted
But Johnson says no vaccine is 100% effective. He says we must be “realistic”, and accept that lifting restrictions will lead to more infections, more hospitalisations and more deaths. That would happen even if the lifting of lockdown were delayed for six or nine months, he says.
Johnson says UK now on a 'one-way road to freedom'
Johnson has arrived for his press conference.
More than 17.7 million people across the UK have been vaccinated, he says.
And he says the odds have been shifted in our favour. Vaccination has put a shield around people.
With every day that goes by this programme of vaccination is creating a shield around the entire population which means that we are now travelling on a one-way road to freedom.
And we can begin safely to restart our lives and do it with confidence.
Updated
From the Spectator’s political editor, James Forsyth
The end of Johnson’s statement today owed a lot to Tony Blair. Johnson cast himself as charting a middle course between those who think the government’s plan is too ambitious & those who want restrictions eased faster. It was classic Blairite triangulation https://t.co/DA5QL6G2UO
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) February 22, 2021
The government is investigating the use of “Covid status certificates” to help allow society to reopen, Boris Johnson has announced. My colleague Heather Stewart has the story here.
Boris Johnson's press conference
Boris Johnson is about to hold a press conference.
He will be accompanied by Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific adviser.
Mark Harper, chair of the Covid Recovery Group, which represents lockdown-sceptic Tories, says the PM’s response to him in the Commons earlier (see 4.47pm) implied a return to further restrictions next winter. In a statement Harper says:
In answer to my question in parliament today, the prime minister said that those who “have not taken up the vaccine” mean that “there is still a substantial body of risk” to the rest of society.
There are two important questions raised by his answer.
The chief scientific adviser has said Covid-19 will become endemic and is going to be with us “forever”.
For the rest of time, with Covid endemic, can society really be held back by those who choose not to have a vaccine?
How does the prime minister’s rationale for delaying lifting restrictions past the end of April, once the most vulnerable groups accounting for 99% of deaths are protected, not lead us into further restrictions as we move into the winter when respiratory viruses tend to become more prevalent?
These are from John Burn-Murdoch at the Financial Times illustrating today’s data from Public Health England about the impact of the Pfizer vaccine.
More good news: data from @PHE_uk on people in England aged 80+ shows solid and rising protection from a first dose of BioNTech/Pfizer, with second dose boosting efficacy to over 85%
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) February 22, 2021
These data are for protection against infection, not hospital. The latter will be even higher 😀 pic.twitter.com/UVQUjlgY8o
Finally, more PHE data, this time from healthcare workers (aged under 65) shows very strong and long-lasting protection from infection among this age group after a single dose.
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) February 22, 2021
As before, protection against hospitalisation will be even stronger. pic.twitter.com/ifrIME59Cz
Demand from Tory MPs to scrap Covid rules 'could bring huge death toll'
Relaxing all restrictions by the end of April, a scenario demanded by the Tory Covid Recovery Group (see 4.47pm), could lead to a massive fourth wave of infections higher than the January peak and risk almost doubling the UK’s death toll, the Sage documents have revealed.
Here is the Guardian story.
And the various Sage papers modelling different different scenarios are available here.
Spectators will not be able to return to sporting venues in England until 17 May at the earliest, the government has announced. There is a full story here.
From Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor
Indoor hospitality won't reopen until 17 May at the earliest - more than a month after they have to start paying business rates and more than two weeks after furlough ends.
— Anneliese Dodds 💙 (@AnnelieseDodds) February 22, 2021
Businesses needed certainty today. Instead this Conservative Government has left them in the lurch again.
The Northern Ireland protocol could destabilise Northern Ireland, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) MP, told the House of Commons during a debate triggered by a DUP e-petition.
Trade disruptions and the implications for the region’s position within the UK risk “political instability”, obliging the British government to intervene, he said.
The petition and debate were part of a campaign by the DUP and other Northern Ireland unionist parties to launch political and legal challenges to the protocol.
Simon Hoare, the Conservative MP who chairs the Northern Ireland affairs committee, said there was no alternative to the protocol and that it could pave the way to a golden age for the region’s economy.
Ireland’s taoiseach, Micheal Martin, also talked up the economic opportunities, “There are many benefits and opportunities inherent in the protocol for Northern Ireland and so it is right that we all work closely together to ensure that the protocol works and that disruption is minimised to the greatest extent possible,” he told the British Irish Parliamentary assembly.
One vaccine dose gives high protection from severe Covid, evidence shows
Real-world evidence from the Covid vaccination programmes in England and Scotland show that one dose of vaccine gives high protection against severe disease and admission to hospital – and protects against even mild disease with no symptoms in younger people, my colleague Sarah Boseley reports.
Johnson dismisses calls from Tory MPs for restrictions to be lifted sooner
Boris Johnson has now finished his Commons statement. He was on his feet for almost two and a half hours, and broadly his announcement received a positive reception. In the past Sir Keir Starmer has been damning about some aspects of Johnson’s handling of the pandemic, but today he did not really challenge any of the details of the new timetable - although he did restate his calls for the extension of furlough and business support. Several opposition MPs, including the Green’s Caroline Lucas (see below) did challenge Johnson over the court ruling about PPE contracts not being published on time, but Johnson brushed these aside by saying that the public wanted government at the time to focus on securing PPE.
“All the details are on the record”
— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) February 22, 2021
No they aren’t, Prime Minister. We still don't know how or why some Covid contracts were awarded, including via the VIP lane. Your Sec of State broke the law & either you haven’t noticed or you don’t care. Which is it?@GoodLawProject pic.twitter.com/JQlSDB4WUo
In his response to Johnson, Starmer said that some Tory MP (the Covid Recovery Group) wanted all restrictions lifted by the end of April, that this was “reckless and irresponsible” and that Johnson should “face this down”. An hour or so later Johnson did exactly that, telling Mark Harper, the CRG chair, that the CRG plan would put a large number of people at risk. (See 4.47pm.)
Some Conservative MPs did press Johnson to open up more quickly, but not particularly forcefully, or in a manner to suggest that a big rebellion is looming. Richard Fuller said this about international travel.
With respect to international travel, the inside page of our passport states that ‘in the name of Her Majesty, all those whom it may concern, to allow the bearer to pass freely without let or hindrance’. And with regard to quarantine hotels, may I remind the prime minister that just because a policy is popular does not mean it is right.
And Paul Bristow said the dates in the plan were “arbitrary”. He said:
Because the UK is ahead of others on vaccinations we can open up sooner. [Johnson said he would focus on data, not dates, but these five weeks of dates seem arbitrary. If progress against the four tests look better than expected, might the government be flexible and review the data and restrictions on a weekly or fortnightly basis and not on predetermined dates?
In response Johnson said the not-before dates were not arbitrary and were “dictated by the science”.
This is from Julian Bird, chief executive of the Society of London Theatre and UK Theatre, on the PM’s announcement.
We welcome the government’s roadmap announcement as the country takes the first steps towards easing lockdown - in particular, the news that theatre and live arts can resume performances from step three, as early as May 17.
The real route back for the sector, however, will be the step four announcements hopefully enabling full auditoriums from June 21. While our theatres remain closed, we urge the chancellor to continue with the financial support packages needed for businesses and individuals.
Boris Johnson is still responding to questions in the Commons, and Richard Burgon, the Labour MP and secretary of the Socialist Campaign Group, told him that he was wrong to claim that a zero Covid approach was impossible. Burgon said in other countries this had been achieved. He said that Johnson’s decision to delay ordering the lockdown cost lives, and that sending all pupils in England back to school on the same day was a mistake.
Johnson claimed that Burgon’s comments showed that Labour was in the pockets of the teaching unions.
Prof Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist from Imperial College London who published a paper credited with persuading the government to announce the original lockdown, told Radio 4’s PM programme he thought the plans announced today struck the “right balance”. He explained:
I think it is the right balance of giving people hope that we are not in this situation forever and yet being relatively cautious about the pace of relaxing measures.
As PA Media reports, Ferguson said it was “not completely impossible but probably quite unlikely” that ministers would be able to accelerate the easing process, and speeding up the transition through the stages would depend on the effectiveness of vaccines in reducing transmission.
But Ferguson also said that Covid cases were likely to rise once schools return in England next month. He said:
I’m afraid, as the prime minister said, we think R will go above 1.0 - it may even go above 1.0 when the schools reopen.
It is down at 0.7-0.8 at the moment but the new variants and reopening schools might just push it a little above 1.0, so we have to be prepared for case numbers to start rising again, but the calculations would indicate that the rise in cases will be more than counterbalanced by the rise in immunity and protection of the population by vaccination.
UK records 178 further Covid deaths and 10,641 more cases
The UK government has updated its coronavirus dashboard. It has recorded 178 further deaths and 10,641 further new cases.
This is the lowest daily figure for reported deaths since Sunday 13 December, when 144 deaths were recorded.
Here is the full text (pdf) of the government’s 60-page roadmap to lifting the lockdown in England.
Here is the Downing Street summary.
And here is the PM’s statement to MPs about it.
Here is a Guardian Comment panel with contributions from four leading scientists, Devi Sridhar, Jennifer Dowd, Graham Medley and Stephen Reicher, saying what they think of the PM’s plan for lifting the lockdown in England.
And here is an extract from the article by Medley, who chairs the government’s SPI-M. (See 5.01pm.)
At the moment, the UK’s epidemic is decreasing but we know it could double in size in a couple of weeks if transmission picks up again. Despite the progress made in driving down cases during the lockdown, we’re only a month away from being back in the same position as we were in December.
This is why a careful, measured approach to easing restrictions is sensible.
Lifting restrictions will lead to 'epidemic resurgence', says Sage
And here are the minutes (pdf) of the Sage meeting held on 18 February (last Thursday), where theSPI-M-O document (see 5.01pm) was discussed.
Sage says extra hospital admissions and deaths will occur when restrictions are lifted. It does not suggest that this is an argument for continuing with the lockdown indefinitely; rather, it just suggests this is an epidemiological inevitability, although it stresses that a lot depends on how measures are eased. It says:
The conclusions from modelling of additional scenarios for releasing of measures are consistent with those from previous iterations of modelling. All scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths, though there are differences in the scale and timing (high confidence).
There remains significant uncertainty about the scale and timing of such resurgence. This uncertainty is greater further into the future. Given this, decisions about changes to restrictions are best made based on epidemiological data rather than based on predetermined dates.
Boris Johnson acknowledged this in his opening statement to MPs. He said: “As the modelling released by Sage today shows, we cannot escape the fact that lifting lockdown will result in more cases, more hospitalisations and sadly more deaths. This would happen whenever lockdown is lifted, whether now or in six or nine months, because there will always be some vulnerable people who are not protected by the vaccine.”
In the minutes Sage says indoor mixing is particularly problematic.
The models suggest that allowing additional indoor mixing at an earlier stage when prevalence is higher and fewer people have been vaccinated would result in significantly higher numbers of infections. There is uncertainty over the scale of this increase, but if it were to be allowed, the risk would be reduced if the mixing were limited to exclusive bubbles.
This helps to explain why the PM’s plan involves a cautious return to indoor mixing, which will not be allowed for more than six people, or more than two households, before 21 June at the earliest.
Sage says, once all adults have had at least one vaccine, there is not much to be gained by delaying the lifting of restrictions any longer. It says:
Though releasing restrictions later while the vaccination programme is underway results in fewer subsequent infections (because more people have been vaccinated when contacts increase), after all adults have been offered at least one dose of the vaccine any further delay is not likely to have a significant impact on the scale of the subsequent resurgence (though it would change the timing).
It says that “decisions about changes to restrictions are best made based on epidemiological data rather than based on predetermined dates”. This, broadly, is the policy followed by the PM. His plan does include dates, but they are only provisional, “not before” dates; it is not a firm timetable.
And Sage says some “baseline” measures will need to be retained beyond the summer. It explains:
As previously advised, retaining a baseline set of policies to reduce transmission after other restrictions have been lifted would reduce the scale of a resurgence (high confidence). A specific set of policies has not been modelled, but could include voluntary measures (e.g. hygiene measures, mask wearing in certain situations, avoiding crowding), environmental measures (e.g. ventilation), and test, trace, and isolate systems. A better understanding of how these policies impact transmission will be important in understanding the impact of the release of the last set of restrictions, where there is a high degree of uncertainty. Some of these policies are likely to be needed in the longer term.
The government has just published a new tranche of documents from Sage, its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. Most of the new material is on this page, which has links to documents relating to Sage meetings in February.
This document (pdf), dated 17 February (Wednesday last week), is from SPI-M-O, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational, which is effectively a sub-committee of Sage. It is a summary of what might happen when restrictions are eased.
The group modelled four scenarios for lifting restrictions, of which at least one (scenario 4) would involve a slower easing than that announced by Boris Johnson.
It says that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions modelled, it is estimated that “at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths would occur under the new scenarios”.
Explaining why there are likely to be further deaths even allowing for the vaccination programme, it says:
There are still many people in vulnerable groups who do not have protection; neither directly (because they have not been vaccinated or because their vaccination has not prevented them from becoming infected then ill) nor indirectly from wider population immunity (because many younger age groups have not yet been vaccinated or infected).
The herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 with the B117 variant is unknown, but is likely to be high. Only around 79% of the population are adults, so even if coverage amongst them is 79%, only 62% of the population would be vaccinated. As the vaccines do not completely prevent transmission, the reduction in transmission that results would be expected to be lower than 62%7 . As a result, herd immunity is not likely to be reached in these scenarios without a further resurgence of transmission.
There are a very large number of older and more vulnerable people living in England. A small proportion of them will not be vaccinated and others will be vaccinated but would still be seriously ill, if infected. If many people are infected once restrictions are lifted, it is highly likely that many people will die or be hospitalised, though significantly fewer than in a scenario where vaccines had not been available.
The paper also says that, given the uncertainties about what impact the vaccine will have, “it would be advisable to tie changes in policy to data instead of dates.”
Updated
'It's pure mathematics' - Johnson says 'large minority' at risk if all restrictions ends after over-50s vaccinated
In the Commons Mark Harper, chair of the Covid Recovery Group, which represents lockdown-sceptic Tories, says the government wants to vaccinate all over-50s, and people with underlying health conditions, by 15 April. These people account for 99% of Covid deaths and 80% of hospital cases. So why can’t all restrictions be lifted from the end of April, once those first doses of vaccines have taken effect?
Johnson says Harper is making an excellent point, but that “a significant minority” of people either won’t take the vaccine, or won’t get protection from it.
We believe that the protection is very substantial. But there’ll be a large minority will not have sufficient protection and the risk is that if you let the brakes off, then the disease could surge up in such a way as again to rip through a large number of [that] group in a way that, alas, I don’t think anybody in this country would want to see.
So I’m afraid it’s pure mathematics. There is still a substantial body of risk.
We also need to wait and see exactly what the effects of the vaccine. There are some promising data, but I think what the country would want at this stage is caution and certainty and irreversibility, and that is what we aim to provide.
Updated
Johnson told MPs that both Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical offficer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, approved the plan for the reopening of schools.
At the end of last week the Guardian reported education sources as saying Whitty was “very unhappy” with the idea of all 10 million children and staff returning to schools in England on 8 March.
In the Commons Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, asked why the government was awarding so many NHS contracts without putting them out to tender. In a comment that seemed intended to differentiate himself from Sir Keir Starmer, who has refused to call for Matt Hancock’s resignation over the court ruling saying he broke the law over the late publication of contracts (see 10.54am), Corbyn said Hancock should be replaced with a health secretary willing to obey the law.
Johnson said at the start of the pandemic Labour MPs were urging the government to go faster in acquiring PPE. Labour suggested PPE contracts should be awarded to a theatrical impresario and a football agent, he claimed.
In the Commons Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, was the first Tory to suggest the government should go faster. He urged Boris Johnson to consider relaxing the rules for hospitality more quickly, pointing out that some of the lowest paid people in the country were working in the sector.
Johnson acknowledged the point, but said the government could not risk another surge. And he said the dates provided today gave the sector some certainty.
The government has sent its 60-page roadmap to lifting lockdown to journalists. I can’t find it on the government’s website yet, but here are four graphics from it summarising the potential timetable for relaxing measures.
The document is headed: Covid-19 Response - Spring 2021. That might be a tacit acknowledgment that this not the first lockdown lifting plan it has published. We had another one last May.
Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says the UK government’s plans will be worthless if the virus is allowed to re-enter the country. He says Boris Johnson should follow the Scottish government, which is imposing hotel quarantine on all arrivals.
Johnson claims the UK has some of the toughest travel restrictions in the world. And he says vaccines are being developed to counter the new variants.
Theresa May, the Conservative former prime minister, urges the PM to do more to help the aviation industry. She says the travel review will not report until 12 April. Airlines needs three months to prepare, she says.
Johnson says the government will continue to support the aviation industry.
Sir Keir Starmer used his response to Johnson to restate his call for teachers to be vaccinated, and to say that Johnson should not wait until the budget next week before confirming that furlough will be extended.
In his response, Johnson said that Labour wanted to stay in the European Medicines Agency, which he claims would have made the vaccine rollout impossible.
But he thanks Starmer for offering his cautious support for the plan.
Guide to PM's four-stage plan to lifting lockdown in England
Here is a summary from my colleague Peter Walker of the plan announced by Boris Johnson.
Updated
Johnson says four reviews will also be carried out.
They will cover: the case for Covid status certificates; how events can be staged; how travel can be facilitated; and social distancing.
And he says next month the government will publish a plan for dealing with local outbreak and variants of concern.
He ends by saying it is important to be cautious, and humble in the face of the virus. But the end is in sight, he claims.
Johnson says step four will start no earlier than 21 June.
At that point all limits on social contacts should be lifted.
And he says large events like weddings should be able to go ahead.
Johnson says step three will start no earlier than 17 May.
Most restrictions on meeting outdoors will then be lifted, he says.
Pubs and restaurants will open for indoor service, he says.
Cinemas, play areas, hotels, and theatres will also open, he says. And larger events will be allowed, subject to enhanced testing.
Johnson says step two will start no earlier than 12 April.
Non-essential retail will open. People will be able to get a haircut.
Pubs and restaurants will begin to open, for outdoors service. There will be no curfew, and no requirement for people to order a substantial meal.
Zoos, theme parks, and drive-in cinemas will open, as will public libraries and community centres.
Updated
Johnson confirms that schools will open from 8 March.
They will be supported by twice weekly testing, he says.
Students on university courses requiring practical teaching, specialist facilities and on-site assessments will also return. But all others will need to continue learning online, and we will review the options for when they can return by the end of the Easter holidays.
And from 29 March people will be able to meet outside, subject to the rule of six, or provided no more than two households are meeting.
People will no longer be legally required to stay at home. For many lockdown restrictions will remain. People should continue to work from home where they can, and minimise all travel, wherever possible.
Updated
Johnson says his approach will be led by data, not dates.
And four tests will apply, he says. He reads them out. (See 12.49pm.)
He says the government will move forward in four steps.
There will be at least five weeks between each step - four weeks to acquire data on its impact, and a week to give people notice of what is happening next.
He says Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, has said that moving faster would increase the chances of the government having to reverse course and reimpose restrictions. “I won’t take that risk,” says Johnson.
Updated
Johnson says these measures are for England. But he says the devolved administrations have similar plans.
He says the vaccines seem to be effective against the dominant strains of the virus.
But he says it is inevitable that lifting restrictions will lead to more hospital cases and more deaths.
There is no credible route to a zero Covid future, he says.
Boris Johnson starts by saying his roadmap will guide the government “cautiously but irreversibly” to lifting the lockdown.
Boris Johnson's Commons statement on roadmap to easing lockdown
Boris Johnson is about to make his Commons statement on the roadmap for easing the lockdown in England.
After he has spoken, Johnson will respond to questions from MPs. There are 100 MPs down to speak; the list is here. Sir Keir Starmer will be the first to respond.
Forty MPs have signed a Commons early day motion tabled by the Labour leftwinger Richard Burgon calling for the government to “adopt a zero Covid plan that seeks the maximum suppression of the virus as the best way to save lives and allow our communities and the economy to safely reopen”. It cites New Zealand and Vietnam as examples of countries where this approach has kept the death rate down, while allowing the economy to reopen. Among the signatories are MPs from Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP and the Greens.
40 MPs from 6 parties have backed my call for the PM to adopt a Zero Covid strategy as New Zealand and others have done to deal successfully with this crisis.
— Richard Burgon MP (@RichardBurgon) February 22, 2021
That's the best way to save lives and allow our communities and the economy to reopen safely.https://t.co/cQBPD3riMe
Updated
Northern Ireland has recorded 187 more coronavirus cases and four further deaths. A week ago today there were also four deaths recorded, but 234 new cases.
The Department of Health #COVID19 dashboard has been updated.
— Department of Health (@healthdpt) February 22, 2021
187 individuals have tested positive for COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. Sadly, a further 4 deaths have been reported.https://t.co/ZhGagw1BNL pic.twitter.com/g0oDpTGFzS
On the World at One Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, said he was “slightly worried” about the emphasis on the risks posed by new variants in the government’s four tests for easing lockdown restrictions. (See 12.49pm.) Walker, one of the Tories most opposed to the lockdown, said he would like to see more “flexibility” in the timetable. He said:
Perhaps as the data gets better, and the vaccines take hold and the months get warmer, and the number of infections could drop away more quickly than anyone could have imagined, then we need the flexibility. The government needs the flexibility to revisit these things. What I don’t want to do is keep businesses closed for any longer than they need to close.
I am slightly worried about some of these thresholds because all viruses mutate, that’s what they do, that’s why we have an annual flu vaccine … If we’re going to talk about new variants, then I think we’re going to have problems, and that causes me concern.
Updated
NHS England has recorded 178 further coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.
A week ago today the equivalent figure was 231 deaths, and two weeks ago it was 313 deaths.
In Scotland there has been a small rise in the number of Covid patients in hospital. There were 1,141 coronavirus patients in hospital yesterday, according to the figures released today, an increase of nine on the total announced yesterday (1,132).
There have been 715 new cases. A week ago the equivalent figure was 559.
And no further deaths have been recorded, but that is normal for Mondays, because registration offices are closed at the weekend.
A total of 15,471,509 Covid-19 vaccinations took place in England between December 8 and February 21, according to provisional NHS England data, including first and second doses, which is a rise of 116,333 on the previous day’s figures.
As PA Media reports, of this number, 14,958,074 were the first dose of a vaccine, a rise of 113,987 on the previous day, while 513,435 were a second dose, an increase of 2,346.
Public Health Wales has recorded nine further deaths and 319 further cases.
A week ago today 16 deaths and 363 new cases were recorded in Wales
The rapid COVID-19 surveillance dashboard has been updated
— Public Health Wales (@PublicHealthW) February 22, 2021
💻https://t.co/zpWRYSUbfh
📱https://t.co/HSclxpZjBh
Read our daily statement here: https://t.co/u6SKHz0zsG pic.twitter.com/FcPmHd6kOh
An Irish MEP has called for direct communications channels to be set up between the Northern Ireland assembly and Brussels.
Ahead of a key meeting of the UK-EU joint council on Wednesday, Barry Andrews, MEP for Dublin, told reporters there was “no reason” why the grace period on checks on supermarket goods and chilled meats which end in April and July could not be extended for a year. This would meet the UK government’s demands for a two-year extension half way.
He said he believed issues could be solved by creating “connective tissue” between Belfast and Brussels, which would give local leaders input into implementation rules. He went on:
The EU are not desensitised to this. The problem is the UK and I think the UK have a huge role to play here.
Updated
At the weekend, in response to a spate of reports about the latest Downing Street in-fighting (this was the best version, but this the most entertaining), and the role in it all being played by friends of Carrie Symonds, the PM’s fiancee, the Bow Group called for an inquiry into her role in running the country. The Bow Group is now a maverick outfit with little credibility, but it used to be an influential, mainstream thinktank, and it can still manage to generate a headline.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing Allegra Stratton, the PM’s press secretary, said it was “incorrect” to claim that Symonds had a central role in running the country. Stratton went on.
The prime minister’s fiancee is on maternity leave, she’s raising their son Wilf and shortly she will be taking up a new role at the wildlife charity the Aspinall Foundation.
She did not have anything further to say about the Bow Group claims, stressing that Boris Johnson was focused on Covid.
UPDATE: Stratton subsequently issued a clarification, saying that Symonds ended her maternity leave in January and that she is now working for the Aspinall Foundation.
Updated
At her news conference Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, also announced that people with mild or moderate learning difficulties would be vaccinated in Scotland as part of priority group six. Cohort six is for people with serious underlying health conditions, and under the guidelines drawn up by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which are being followed in England, only people with a severe and profound learning disability are in group six. Disability campaigners have called for all people with a learning disability to be included.
According to a recent ONS report, for people with a learning disability the risk of death with Covid is almost four times as high as for people without a learning disability.
People in group six are meant to get vaccinated after the over-65s (group five) but before the over-60s (group seven).
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said that Scotland’s route of out lockdown will be “broadly similar” to England, but different in some respects. She will set out further plans for lockdown easing in a statement to the Scottish parliament tomorrow. Speaking at her daily briefing, she said:
Our plans out of lockdown will not be identical, they are already not identical because we’ve got some kids back in school today which is not the case in England until into March, so we will not be identical but I think there will be broad similarities.
She said Boris Johnson was likely to set out a “careful and cautious”, which she welcomed. It was “vital that we learn from past experiences”, she added.
Similar to us, it seems that they have prioritised children and education and getting life back to normal before doing other things.
So I think the principles will be the same - we’re living through the same pandemic.
There is a limit to how much it is sensible to diverge in the circumstances we’re facing in common but clearly we will make our own judgments about the particular order and the particular timing of that because the data is not identical in each of the four nations.
Sturgeon also said the Scottish government’s own plan coming tomorrow would not include firm dates for reopening. She said:
We will seek to set out tomorrow an indicative order of priority and the likely phasing of firstly the gradual lifting of the current lockdown restrictions and then in due course, a return to the geographic levels system when we would decide whether all or parts of the country may move out of level 4 and into level 3, and of course that’s the part where more parts of the economy will start to open up.
This will be a cautious way forward because it’s really important that as we come out of this lockdown, we do so sustainably.
Hospital admissions in England of patients with Covid-19 are down nearly three-quarters from their second-wave peak, PA Media reports. PA says:
A total of 1,068 admissions were reported for 19 February, NHS England said.
This is a drop of 74% from a peak of 4,134 on 12 January.
It is the lowest number of daily admissions since 28 November - a few days before England came out of its second lockdown.
Chris Jones, Wales’s deputy chief medical officer, has said there has been “a steady and consistent fall” in the weekly number of new Covid cases in the country.
He said the number of weekly cases had fallen from a peak of 630 per 100,000 people in December to 80 now. “This is significantly lower than at previous points when schools and colleges were fully open,” Jones said.
More than 860,000 people in Wales have had their first dose of the vaccine - more than 25% of Wales’ population. Jones said:
We continue to vaccinate more people as a percentage of our population than any of the other UK nations.
We are still on track to reach the next milestone of offering vaccination to everyone in priority groups five to nine by the end of April, provided vaccine supplies remain on course.
Jones said more than 42,000 people had had a second dose.
The Association of School and College Leaders, which represents head teachers, has said it is “difficult to understand” why England is not adopting a phased reopening to schools, as the devolved administrations are doing. Geoff Barton, the ASCL’s general secretary, said:
We share the government’s aim of bringing all children back to the classroom as soon as possible, but we remain concerned about the idea of a ‘big bang’ approach of a full return of pupils all at the same time.
This is very different from the plans in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland in which a phased return is planned, and it is difficult to understand why the approach in England would go so much further.
It is crucial that the return of all pupils to face-to-face education is safe and sustainable and that we don’t end up prolonging a cycle of disruption.
Welsh government minister questions whether evidence justifies English-style full school reopening
The Welsh government has said it will continue to implement a “phased and very careful approach” to schools re-opening with many secondary school students not returning until after Easter.
The education minister, Kirsty Williams, said she had seen no evidence to suggest that schools could safely fully re-open within a few weeks, as is to happen in England.
Some of the youngest primary school pupils began to return on Monday and Williams told a press briefing that if conditions continue to improve over the next three weeks then all primary school children could start to return to classrooms from 15 March. She added:
At the same time, we would also like to see those in years 11 and 13 in schools, and those doing similar qualifications in colleges able to return to face-to-face learning in a safe and flexible way.
Where possible, we also want to give some flexibility around other learners, such as year 12 and those in year 10 who may also have been entered for qualifications this summer.
Unfortunately, for those learners in secondary settings or colleges this won’t necessarily be a return to full time on-site learning.
Williams said her “preference” was for all learners to be back in school after the Easter holidays. “I promise to provide further details on how this will look when I can do so,” she added.
Asked about the plans for all schools to reopen in England on 8 March, Williams, a Liberal Democrat serving in a Labour government, said:
I haven’t received any new evidence or advice that supports a different approach to the one we’re taking here in Wales. Our phased and very careful approach is in line with the public health advice and is consistent with UK wide advice. If there is new and different advice available which contradicts our careful approach then clearly we would want to consider that. We will continue to follow the evidence, data and advice.
Wales’ deputy chief medical officer, Chris Jones, said:
We know that opening schools will increase the R value. A cautious approach where we introduce the lowest-risk children back to school first, evaluate the impact of that, that will teach us a great deal.
Updated
How No 10's four tests for lockdown easing could allow R to rise above 1
According to the overnight briefing, Boris Johnson’s plan for easing the lockdown in England does not just involve four phases. (See 12.08pm.) It also involves four tests for lockdown easing.
I’ve numbered them for clarity, but otherwise this is how they are described in the No 10 news release. They are:
1) The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.
2) Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
3) Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
4) Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.
There are two features of this list that are important to note, and that are likely to come up when Boris Johnson takes questions in the Commons.
First, infection rates are now included. When the government initially announced in January the four tests that would decide when lockdown would be eased, hospitalisations and deaths were included, but not case rates. This has led the Covid Recovery Group, which represents Tories sceptical about the lockdown, to claim the goalposts have been moved.
Second, under these criteria lockdown easing could continue even if R, the reproduction number, was back above 1 (meaning cases were increasing again, not decreasing). The list implies an R number above 1 would be acceptable provided it would not lead to “a surge in hospitalisations” that would put “unsustainable pressure on the NHS”. Avoiding the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed was one of the five tests for lockdown easing used by the government last summer, although eventually a second wave did put the NHS in peril.
We don’t know yet if the government will provide more detail on how these tests will be assessed. In a recent report (pdf), the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, a thinktank, said lockdown easing should be linked to case rates reaching certain levels, with full lockdown being maintained if R was above one and new cases were at more than 50 per 100,000. Currently in England new cases are at around 130 per 100,000 and R is between 0.7 and 0.9.
Updated
This is from Mark Drakeford, the first minister of Wales, who is joining the many people concerned that reporting of the PM’s lockdown easing plan does not always specify that it is England only.
When the Prime Minister sets out his roadmap today, please note this applies to England only. Here in Wales, we announced last week that we’re using the next 3 weeks to get more students back to school/college, and looking at options for re-opening shops and hairdressers. Diolch.
— Mark Drakeford (@fmwales) February 22, 2021
Here is the news release released by Downing Street overnight with early details of the roadmap for easing lockdown restrictions in England. It says there will be four steps for lifting the restrictions. My colleague Jessica Elgot has summed up what we know about what will happen when (which so far, beyond phase one, is not much).
According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, there may be a five-week gap between each stage. With stage one starting on 8 March, that would suggest it could take until mid June to reach stage four.
Morning - a lot of detail to come thro the day about what rolling back regulations will look like - but gaps between the govt's four steps expected to be FIVE weeks
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) February 22, 2021
In an article for ConservativeHome, Paul Goodman, the website’s editor, suggests that, after much criticism for excessive over-promising last year in relation to easing lockdown, this time Johnson may be intentionally doing the opposite. Goodman says:
The prime minister will not have forgotten, even if some of the rest of us have, that local elections take place on 6 May – a bumper crop this year, because last year’s cancelled polls will be wrapped into them. Mayoralties in London, the West Midlands, Teesside, the West of England, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough; county councils; a mass of thirds in districts and unitaries.
What a bracing springboard it would be to bounce into them with key restrictions lifted before the dates he will suggest this afternoon … and before polling day ...
How convenient it would be for the prime minister, and our fellow Conservative campaigners, to see him triumphantly announce at some point soonish, perhaps just before Easter, that the vaccine rollout continues to go smoothly, that the Astra-Zeneca success rate looks good, that the number of hospitalised people is falling fast, and that some modest opening-up can take place earlier than expected.
Updated
Diane Abbott, the former shadow home secretary, has just told Sky News that she has had her first dose of vaccine. It was painless, and she would encourage everyone to get vaccinated, she said. She is 67.
At a briefing on the research from Scotland suggesting that the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines reduce hospital admissions by up to 85% and 94% respectively (see 9.24am), Aziz Sheikh, director of the Usher Institute and professor of primary care research and development at the University of Edinburgh, said he would anticipate seeing similar vaccine results across the UK. He said:
We would certainly be hopeful that it will be very similar signals being reported by our colleagues in the other UK nations in due course.
Dr Jim McMenamin from Public Health Scotland made the same argument. He said:
For the results that we’ve observed and described here, we are encouraged.
Given the similarities between all of the approaches adopted across England and the devolved administrations, we would hope that the results that we’re seeing are broadly generalisable across the UK given that we’re using the same vaccines.
The funeral of Captain Sir Tom Moore will be held on Saturday, his family said. In a statement, his daughters Lucy Teixeira and Hannah Ingram-Moore said:
Over the past year our father spoke openly about his death and his funeral, and had wondered out loud if perhaps the interest in him over the last 12 months would mean we would need to have more Victoria sponge cakes available for the extra guests.
Sadly, like so many other families affected by the pandemic, we have no choice but to hold a small family funeral, which will take place this Saturday. Whilst we understand so many people wish to pay their respects to our father, we ask that the public and the press continue to support the NHS by staying at home.
We have been contacted by so many people asking what they can do to honour our father, so we have set up an online book of condolence. People can also donate to the Captain Tom Foundation, plant a tree in his memory or donate to a charity of your choice.
Updated
Starmer says public would not support Labour call for Hancock to resign over contracts court ruling
Sir Keir Starmer was doing his regular LBC phone-in this morning. Here are the key points.
- Starmer denied a story in the Observer claiming that that Labour MPs have been asked not to make public comments about the problems caused by Brexit. In his story Toby Helm reported:
One senior backbencher said the message from the top was very clear – that there should be virtual “radio silence” on the issue. “The order that is coming out is: ‘Don’t mention the war.’ We are being told that Keir wants to move on and that if we mention the B-word let alone suggest we a need better deal with the EU than Boris Johnson’s we are being unhelpful.”
Several sources said that MP Carolyn Harris, Starmer’s parliamentary aide with responsibility for coordinating with Labour members – including on what questions they ask at prime minister’s questions – had been discouraging interventions on Brexit, saying they would damage the leader.
But Starmer said the people making these claims were only speaking anonymously. The story was “not true in the slightest”, he claimed. He went on:
Rachel Reeves in the shadow cabinet leads for me on this. She has raised no end of issues. In fact, many times she has been saying we haven’t got enough customs officials on the front line.
- Starmer said the public would not support a call from Labour for Matt Hancock to resign over a court finding that he acted unlawfully in failing to publish Covid contracts on time. In an interview yesterday Starmer said he was not calling for Hanock to resign over this. Some leftwing Labour MPs, like Richard Burgon and Nadia Whittome, criticised this position.
Matt Hancock broke the law over PPE contracts
— Richard Burgon MP (@RichardBurgon) February 21, 2021
He needs to resign.
If he won't, he should be sacked.
The government awarded public contracts to Tory friends and donors.
— Nadia Whittome MP (@NadiaWhittomeMP) February 21, 2021
Matt Hancock acted unlawfully keeping it secret.
He should resign.
But Starmer said the public would want Hancock to stay in post so he could keep working on the vaccine rollout. Asked why he was not calling for Hancock to resign, he said:
That particular case, in relation to Matt Hancock, involved whether the declarations had been made in time. And I don’t think that that is an issue [for resignation]. He should apologise and come and explain to the house, of course he should. But at the moment, in the middle of the vaccine, my strong feeling is that the vast majority of the public would say, for heaven’s sake, what you should be doing here is making sure he’s working really hard to get that vaccine rolled out properly, rather than calling for him to resign.
- He stressed that he was patriotic, and defended his decision to appear alongside a union jack flag when making TV addresses to the nation. He said:
I don’t have any problem at all with the union jack ...
Also, I’m patriotic. I want to lead our country because I want our country to be even better than it is now. I fundamentally believe in our country. And I’m very comfortable with that, I don’t have any problem with that.
I actually think that, if you think about the Labour party, it’s 500,000 people who joined the Labour party, who are active trying to get Labour elected, because they believe in a better future. That is very patriotic and we shouldn’t be shy about this.
- He expressed qualified support for Sadiq Khan’s commission for diversity in the public realm, which has been set up make London’s statutes and street names more diverse. Earlier this month Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, described the idea as “loony”. Starmer said people should have a say on issues like this. But it was not a priority, he said. He said:
I think communities are entitled to express a view on what statues they want up in their area. I’m not sure I see it as a priority in terms of what we’re living through, and what we’ve got in terms of getting the country back up and running. But if I was living in a community I probably would like to express a view one way or the other, and I think that’s not a bad thing.
- He restated his call for teachers to get prioritised for vaccination. He said:
We just had half-term and I said to the government, use that to vaccinate teachers and school staff before we go back to school. They didn’t do it and it is frustrating.
Dr Josie Murray, Public Health Scotland’s public health consultant lead for the EAVE II project which found that the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines reduce hospital admissions by up to 85% and 94%, respectively (see 9.24am), said the results did not have any bearing on the virus’s ability to transmit from person to person and did not advise any changes. As PA Media reports, Murray said:
The first thing to say about these results is that the current vaccination programme shows from these data very likely to be preventing severe illness related to Covid-19.
I think it’s really important to emphasise that these data don’t support any comment about transmission or indeed transmission policy and therefore we wouldn’t be advising on the basis of these results that we should alter anything that we’ve got implemented currently to stop transmission of the virus from person to person within Scotland.
The brilliant news is that the vaccine delivery programme in its current format is suggesting that it’s working.
Updated
Boris Johnson, or rather the person who manages his Twitter account, has posted these about the roadmap for leaving lockdown in England being published later.
Today I’ll be setting out a roadmap to bring us out of lockdown cautiously. Our priority has always been getting children back into school which we know is crucial for their education and wellbeing. We'll also be prioritising ways for people to reunite with loved ones safely.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) February 22, 2021
Our decisions will be made on the latest data at every step, and we will be cautious about this approach so that we do not undo the progress we have achieved so far and the sacrifices each and every one of you has made to keep yourself and others safe.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) February 22, 2021
From Sky’s Ed Conway
As the PM prepares to announce a tentative timetable for loosening lockdown, it’s perhaps worth noting that the UK currently has the strictest lockdown in the developed world (as measured by the Oxdford @BlavatnikSchool’s tracker) pic.twitter.com/lGjsBU1zLP
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) February 22, 2021
Conway is referring to research available here.
As mentioned earlier, Nadhim Zahawi, who was out for No 10 this morning rolling the pitch ahead of the publication of the roadmap for easing lockdown restrictions in England, played down concerns about pupils returning to school all at once. (See 9.04am.) Here are some of the other lines from his broadcast round.
- Zahawi said the government would publish positive data later today about the impact of the vaccination programme on cases and transmission. “Suffice to say the evidence looks good,” Zahawi said. “The Oxford team demonstrated their own evidence of cutting transmission by two-thirds.”
- He explained why restrictions were being lifted across the whole of England at the same time, instead of on a regional, tiered basis. He said:
I think because the way this new variant actually took hold, which has become the dominant variant, the Kent variant, in the United Kingdom, infection rates around the country pretty much rose to similar, very high, unsustainable levels.
So the view is very much that this is about a gradual reopening of the whole of England, not regional.
- He said that prioritising the reopening of schools and “outdoor before indoor” where two of the key principles determining what restrictions would be eased first. On the second point, he said:
The simple way to look at this is that outdoor is safer and therefore we prioritise versus indoor. Outdoor sports - tennis, golf, outdoor organised team sports, grassroots football - will go back on 29 March.
Updated
Here are some comments on the new research about the impact of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines on hospital admissions. (See 9.24am.)
From Prof Aziz Sheikh, lead researcher of the Scotland vaccine study and director of the University of Edinburgh’s Usher Institute
These results are very encouraging and have given us great reasons to be optimistic for the future. We now have national evidence - across an entire country - that vaccination provides protection against Covid-19 hospitalisations.
From Dr Jim McMenamin, national Covid-19 incident director at Public Health Scotland
These results are important as we move from expectation to firm evidence of benefit from vaccines.
Across the Scottish population the results show a substantial effect on reducing the risk of admission to hospital from a single dose of vaccine.
For anyone offered the vaccine I encourage them to get vaccinated.
From Prof Chris Robertson, professor of public health epidemiology at the University of Strathclyde
These early national results give a reason to be more optimistic about the control of the epidemic.
Pfizer and AZ vaccines reduce hospital admissions by 85% and 94%, study suggests
The Covid vaccination programme has been linked to a substantial reduction in hospital admissions, PA Media is reporting. The PA story goes on:
Researchers examined coronavirus hospital admissions in Scotland among people who have had their first jab and compared them with those who had not yet received a dose of the vaccine.
Scientists from the University of Edinburgh, the University of Strathclyde and Public Health Scotland examined data on people who had received either the Pfizer/BioNTech jab or the one developed by experts at the University of Oxford with AstraZeneca.
By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.
Minister plays down concerns about English schools returning at same time
Good morning. Today Boris Johnson is going to unveil what the government describes as its “roadmap for cautiously easing lockdown restrictions in England” and this will include the reopening of all schools on Monday 8 March. Here is our overnight preview story.
This is the third time Johnson has laid out plans for the easing of national lockdown in England and he is anxious to ensure that this one will be the last. In many respects his approach is more tentative than it was in May last year, when he launched the original Covid recovery strategy. But in one at least one respect he is pushing forward more firmly than advisers might like. In Scotland and in Wales, which both went into this phase of lockdown ahead of England, schools are starting to reopen from today, but only for the very youngest pupils. But in England, as Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccination deployment minister told the Today programme, all pupils in England would go back to school.
Yesterday Prof John Edmunds, an epidemiologist who sits on Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, told the Andrew Marr Show that, if all pupils went back at once, he would expect R, the reproduction number, to rise to “something close to one, potentially slightly above”. (It is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 in England.) Asked if he thought primary schools should reopen first, he accepted that politicians had wider issues to consider, but went on: “Sticking to the epidemiology, yeah, of course it’s always safer to take smaller steps and evaluate.”
On the Today programme Zahawi was asked if he accepted that sending all pupils back at the same time could push R above 1. He did not contest the claim, but he brushed it aside. He said:
First of all, it’s no coincidence that the 8 March date has been chosen because the middle of February is when we offered the vaccine to the top four most vulnerable cohorts, and those who look after them. That is three weeks after that last person has had the first dose, when the protection really does kick in. And so we are being deliberately careful. And, of course, [we are] allowing teachers notice to be able to prepare.
So it’s ambitious, but it’s also careful, and it’s data driven.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: Sir Keir Starmer hosts his LBC phone-in.
10am: Boris Johnson chairs cabinet.
12pm: Downing Street is due to hold its daily lobby briefing.
12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is expected to hold a coronavirus briefing.
12.15pm: Kirsty Williams, the Welsh government’s education minister, holds a coronavirus briefing.
2.30pm: Sir Chris Wormald, permanent secretary at the Department for Health and Social Care, Jeremy Pocklington, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, and Dr Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer for England, give evidence to the Commons public administration committee about support for the vulnerable during the Covid crisis.
3.30pm: Boris Johnson makes his statement to MPs about the roadmap for easing lockdown restrictions in England.
7pm: Johnson holds a press conference about the plan at No 10.
At some point today, alongside the publication of the government’s roadmap for leaving lockdown, we are also expected to get a Public Health England report about the impact of the vaccination programme on cases and transmission, and documents from Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, disclosing advice given to the government ahead of today’s announcement.
Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. Today I will be focusing mostly on the Johnson announcement.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Updated
