Afternoon summary
That’s all from me for today. But our coronavirus coverage continues on our global live blog. It’s here.
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, is offering people who get or book a first jab in the city this week the chance to win either two tickets to the Euro 2020 final, or one of 50 tickets to watch the match in the fan zone in Trafalgar Square.
NEW: Londoners have a golden opportunity to watch the #EURO2020 final in the Trafalgar Square Fanzone if they get or book their first jab this week.
— Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) July 6, 2021
And with England just one game away, I’m also inviting two lucky Londoners to watch the game at Wembley. https://t.co/GfWd5IiAUT
Chris Whitty says rates of long Covid likely to increase significantly
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has told the Local Government Association that rates of long Covid will increase significantly, and that this won’t be a trivial problem. He told the LGA:
Since there’s a lot of Covid at the moment and the rates are going up I regret to say I think we will get a significant amount more long Covid, particularly in the younger ages where the vaccination rates are currently much lower.
Fundamentally the two ways to prevent long Covid in my view are to keep Covid rates right down and make sure everyone is vaccinated so they get very mild disease and I think we really just need to push hell for leather for those two.
The deaths from Covid I think are mercifully going to be much lower in this wave compared to the previous ones as a proportion of cases but long Covid remains, I think, a worry.
We don’t know how big an issue it’s going to be but I think we should assume it’s not going to be trivial.
The LGA has called for a debate on the impact that long Covid will have, not just on the NHS, but on the demand for social care. (See 11.46am.)
Dr Sakthi Karunanithi, the director of public health in Lancarshire, has urged people in the county to carry on wearing masks on public transport after 19 July - even though the government plans to stop this being a legal requirement. In a statement he said:
Every one of us wants to see these restrictions lifted but we must not forget that, here in Lancashire, we have some of the highest rates in the country ...
It is also important that as long as there are high levels of the virus in our communities, that we continue to use common sense and take extra steps when appropriate. We have got into the habit of taking a face mask wherever we go and let us not drop this habit now. Soon it won’t be illegal to forego a mask in enclosed public spaces such as on buses or trains - but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t.
My advice to you is to continue to wear a mask in those circumstances.
Updated
The UK will block visas for visitors from countries the home secretary believes are refusing to cooperate in taking back rejected asylum seekers or offenders under a borders bill published today. My colleague Jamie Grierson has the story here.
Burnham calls for 16- and 17-year-olds to be offered vaccines
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has warned that the government’s decision to lift the requirement for people to wear masks on public transport from 19 July could make it “loss of freedom day” for people who are vulnerable.
Speaking at a press conference, he said leaders in Greater Manchester “broadly support the direction of travel” of the government on most aspects of opening up. But he said he was “surprised” by the decision on face masks. He said:
When I first picked up late last week that this is where we might be heading I was genuinely surprised. I think what surprised me is that distancing and masks have both been removed at the same time, because obviously distancing does have an impact on the economy in terms of the number of people you can have in locations or on public transport, and it felt to me that, were you to do something on distancing, it makes it more important we kept the requirements around masks.
He said removing the requirement to wear masks gave the impression that Britain has returned to normal and he said that the message about personal choice from the government did not make it clear that masks were there to protect others.
I still have the concern that ‘freedom day’ for some will be ‘loss of freedom day’ for others. There will be people who will feel very worried, from 19 July, about venturing out and going on public transport, and I struggle to see how that’s fair for people who have no choice to use public transport.
Burnham also called for people aged 16 and 17 to be offered the vaccine off the back of a large increase in the spread of Covid-19 among younger population groups. He said:
Higher-case areas are at greater risk going into this next uncharted phase of the pandemic, and we need to do everything we possibly can to mitigate those risks.
We are very clear here in Greater Manchester that vaccinating or calling forward 16- and 17-year-olds for vaccination will help us manage those risks, particularly as those that teenagers return to college in the autumn.
Updated
According to the Sunday Times’ Gabriel Pogrund, the health minister Lord Bethell is now being investigated by the standards commissioners in the Lords. Bethell sponsored a parliamentary pass for Gina Coladangelo, the aide who was filmed kissing Matt Hancock, the health secretary, in breach of Covid regulations.
As Pogrund reported at the weekend, it is alleged this was against the rules because Coladangelo got the pass even though she was not working for Bethell. But Bethell’s allies say she was offering him unpaid support.
NEW: Lord Bethell under investigation by standards commissioner for sponsoring Gina Coladangelo's pass
— Gabriel Pogrund (@Gabriel_Pogrund) July 6, 2021
On Sunday, the minister's friends gave an account of the work she "personally and genuinely" did for him
Their claim: advice on "personal presentation"https://t.co/BKBtxsculf
Updated
UK records 28,773 new cases and 37 more deaths
The UK has recorded 28,773 new coronavirus cases, according to the latest update to the government’s Covid dashboard. That is the highest daily total on this measure since the end of January (29,079 cases on 29 January). And the total number of new cases over the past seven days is up 49% on the total for the previous week.
The UK has also recorded 37 more deaths. That is the highest daily total on this measure (by date recorded) since late April (40 on 23 April). Over the past seven days the total number of deaths is up 20.3% on the total for the previous week.
Updated
Why are so many English pupils off school?
Here is a question from below the line.
Earlier my colleague Richard Adams reported that 641,000 pupils in England were off school on 1 July. (See 12.22pm.) The figures are here, on the Department for Education’s website, under the attendance table. This is how they break down:
471,000 pupils isolating because of contact with someone testing positive in a school setting.
90,000 pupils isolating because of contact with someone testing positive outside a school setting.
34,000 pupils with a suspected Covid case.
28,000 pupils with a confirmed Covid case.
18,000 pupils off because of school closures. (The main web page says 0.2% of pupils, but an associated spreadsheet says this amounts to 18,200 pupils.)
Updated
Main hospital in Scottish Highlands cancels non-urgent surgery as Covid cases rise
The main hospital in the Scottish Highlands has been placed in the rare “code black” status as a result of rising Covid patient admissions and an increase in the number of staff isolating.
Raigmore hospital, Inverness, has reached capacity, according to health officials, who warned that emergency patients would face long waits while all non-urgent elective surgery and most outpatient appointments have also been cancelled. With the Scottish school holidays now having begun, the hospital is also seeing the impact of planned annual leave.
Dr Boyd Peters, medical director for NHS Highland, said:
We are very sorry that we have had to do this. Covid is on the increase again but what is different this time is that we are seeing more medical and surgical activity at the same time. We also have a high number of staff having to self-isolate.
The health board said medical, surgical and clinical support teams were meeting regularly to discuss what more can be done to reduce the pressure on services within the hospital, but said that cancer and urgent cases would continue as well as orthopaedic and day case work where possible.
Updated
Another teaching union, the NAHT, has also expressed concerns about Gavin Williamson’s plan to end the bubble system for schools, that requires pupils to isolate if someone in their bubble has tested positive. Nick Brook, deputy general secretary of the union, which represents school leaders, said the government could be lurching “from one extreme to the other”. He said:
No school leader wants to have restrictions in place any longer than are needed, but there will be a sense of real concern amongst many that the worsening situation they see before their eyes is at odds with the government’s narrative of relaxation and return to normality. Schools have seen a near doubling of children contracting Covid-19, with 28,000 confirmed cases reported in the last week alone. School leaders and parents alike will want more reassurance than has been given so far that removal of restrictions are supported by scientific evidence, not driven by political convenience.
It is certainly about time that NHS test and trace step forward to take responsibility from school leaders for contact tracing and managing outbreaks. However, it would be extremely concerning if government were to lurch from one extreme to the other, should there be no clear requirement on pupils that have come into very close contact with Covid to test and remain at home for that short period whilst awaiting results.
Like the National Education Union (see 2.38pm), the NAHT is also calling for better ventilation in classrooms.
Brook also said he was worried by the government’s suggestion that restrictions might have to be reimposed in the autumn on a school by school basis. He said:
From September, all schools have been told that they will need to have in place contingency plans, should there be a Covid outbreak amongst pupils, which could trigger reintroduction of restrictions on a school-by-school basis. By shifting responsibility to schools for development and implementation of contingency arrangements, government must not simply wash their hands of the problem.
Updated
NEU teaching union accuses government of pursuing 'herd immunity' strategy affecting children
The National Education Union has accused the government of pursuing a “herd immunity” policy, impacting on children in particular. This is a term used to refer to a strategy of allowing infection to spread through population, so that eventually most people are immune.
Kevin Courtney, the NEU joint general secretary, made the allegation in response to Gavin Williamson’s statement to the Commons, which has just ended. Ministers have rejected the claim that herd immunity is their policy for the summer.
Courtney said:
Gavin Williamson has announced an end to bubbles and self-isolation, to follow the removal of masks in mid-May, without even a replacement by daily contact testing.
Instead, NHS test, track and trace will contact children who have a positive result to ask them who their close contacts are and will then ask those contacts to have a PCR test. However, those close contacts will not have to isolate whilst waiting for that PCR test.
Head teachers will welcome not being responsible for testing of pupils but will share the concerns of the NEU about how effective a public test track and trace system will be and how much it will control cases in schools. Schools have so far been the most effective part of the test, track and trace system.
It seems clear that the government policies are based on a new form of herd immunity strategy - they are hoping that the increase in vaccination rates and the increase in infection rates across the summer will eventually get cases to fall simply because there is no one left to infect.
Courtney said instead the government should be improving ventilation in schools, planning mass asymptomatic testing in schools organised by Public Health England and getting the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to make a recommendation on vaccinating secondary school-aged children.
Updated
Nicola Sturgeon welcomes evidence that new Covid cases in Scotland starting to fall
Scotland has recorded 2,363 new coronavirus cases. And of all the tests carried out, 10.2% were positive.
A week ago today 3,118 new cases were recorded, and the positivity rate was 11.6%.
Today’s figures also show 346 Covid patients in hospital (up eight from yesterday) and 32 of them in intensive care (up two from yesterday).
And there have been six further deaths.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has welcomed the suggestion that cases are starting to fall.
Daily fluctuations still likely - but reported Scottish cases have dropped compared to this time last week. Vital that everyone gets vaccine - & that we all stay outdoors as much as possible and continue to follow advice on distancing, face masks, hygiene etc https://t.co/mMi5okpNwO
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) July 6, 2021
Updated
Williamson says the government is leaving it up to schools to decide for themselves whether or not they want to keep the bubble system system going for the final few days of term after 19 July.
But they are not expected to operate the bubble system during summer schools, he says.
Ben Spencer (Con) asks what will children have to do if they get coughs or colds.
Williamson says children should stay at home and get better if they are ill. If a pupil has been in touch with someone testing positive, test and trace will get in touch and ask them to do a PCR test. But they will still be able to attend school, he says, unless they develop symptoms or test positive.
Chris Matheson (Lab) asks Williamson to hold an open consultation with schools about any changes to exams.
Williamson says the government does talk to school leaders continuously on these issues.
Sir Edward Leigh (Con) asks Williamson to reassure parents that there is no risk to children from these moves because the risk to children of getting seriously ill from Covid is “vanishingly small”.
Williamson says Leigh is right to point this out.
Williamson says he wants to bring back exams in 2022, but with 'mitigations' to help pupils who have missed schooling
Robert Halfon (Con), chair of the education committee, asks what is being done to ensure a level playing field for exams next year for pupils who have missed so much school.
Williamson says he plans to move back to an exam system next year, but he wants to put mitigations in place to help pupils. He will give more details before the summer.
Williamson is responding to Green.
He claims that Green is wedded to the EU vaccine programme, and is probably “disappointed” that the UK is not part of it.
He ignores most of Green’s questions.
Kate Green, the shadow education secretary, is responding for Labour.
She asks about the latest pupil absence figures (see 12.22pm) - which Williamson did not mention.
She says she is glad the “chaotic” bubbles system is going. But how can Williamson be sure that the new system will be better.
She asks him to give the results of the pilot schemes for using regular testing as an alternative to isolation.
Why is the government no longer requiring pupils to wear masks, when cases are higher than they were when masks will be required?
If the JCVI recommends vaccinating older children, will that happen before September?
Williamson says there will no longer be restrictions on in-person teaching in universities in step 4.
It will not longer be necessary for schools and colleges to stagger start and finish times, he says.
He says some protective measures, relating to hygiene and ventilation, will remain in place in schools in the autumn term.
But face coverings will no longer be required, and social distancing will no longer be required, he says.
He says schools will still be asked to give their pupils two on-site tests at the start of term in September. And home testing will continue until the end of September, when it will be reviewed.
He says it is also vital testing continues until the end of this term.
He says new guidance covering these matters is being issued to schools.
Gavin Williamson confirms bubble and isolation arrangements in schools in England to end
Gavin Williamson starts by saying his statement will cover restrictions being lifted for schools (in England).
He says we have faced down a historic public health emergency; he says parents and teachers have contributed so much.
But some restrictions will remain in place in step 4, after 19 July, he says.
Children are better off in classrooms, he says.
Millions of them have been back in school since March. This is good for their wellbeing as well as their education.
And it is not right that they should have to give up more than adults.
Key restrictions on education and childcare will come to an end in step 4, he says.
The system of bubbles and isolation is causing disruption.
Bubbles will end, and responsibility for contact tracing will be referred to NHS Test and Trace for early years settings, schools and colleges, he says.
And from 16 August children will only have to isolate if they test positive.
The Javid statement is over. Next up is Gavin Williamson, the education secretary.
Nick Brook, deputy general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, has said that latest figures about pupil absences in England (see 12.22pm) show the urgent need for a new approach to keeping schools safe. He says:
These latest figures make for grim reading and show that the delta variant is having a huge impact on schools. Whilst the government might argue that scrapping bubbles and changing rules around self-isolation will reduce the number of pupils missing education, we should be equally worried about the significant rise we have seen in confirmed and suspected cases in a single week. These latest figures only serves to demonstrate why the government must take urgent action and put alternative measures in place to keep school communities safe. Simply hoping the problem will go away is not a realistic option.
We will hear from Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, on this in the next few minutes.
Catherine West (Lab) asks what is being done to improve ventilation in schools.
Javid says Gavin Williamson will be speaking soon about changes being made in schools.
Munira Wilson (Lib Dem) asks Javid to confirm that it is policy to have a third wave of Covid cases now, not in the winter. How many deaths and long Covid cases will this cause?
Javid says no one wants another wave of Covid cases. But the link between cases and hospitalisations has been weakened, he says.
Henry Smith (Con) asks what will be done to advise immuno-compromised people. He says the vaccines have little impact on them.
Javid says new guidance will be issued for these patients, through GPs.
Patricia Gibson (SNP) asks what contingency plans are in place for the emergence of a new variant.
Javid says no one knows what will happen. But border controls are staying in place. Test, track and isolate is staying in place. And lots of genome sequencing is happening, he says.
The Department for Health is very much aware of this issue, he says. He says it is an issue around the world.
Javid says he wants to come forward as soon as he can with a new plan to tackle mental health.
Javid says the government plans to run the Covid booster vaccine programme in the autumn alongside the flu vaccine programme. That should lead to record take-up for the flu vaccine, he says.
Andrew Murrison (Con) asks about batches of AstraZeneca vaccine not being recognised by the EU. Will that affect people wanting to travel to the EU?
Javid says the Indian version of the AstraZeneca, Covishield, has not been used in the UK. He says the government is having “intensive discussions” with its EU partners to make them aware of this.
Damian Green (Con) asks why vaccine take-up seems to be falling.
Javid says, compared to any other large country, vaccine take-up in the UK is the best in the world. But the government would like it to be higher.
Walk-in centres improve take-up, he says.
And he says the gap between first and second doses is being made shorter.
Javid is responding to Ashworth.
He says he has been “upfront” with the public about the likelihood of cases rising.
He claims the the ongoing restrictions have contributed to people not seeking health treatment for non-Covid conditions. So the current rules are also putting pressure on the NHS, he says.
And, referring to what he said in his Harvard paper (pdf), he says the success of the vaccination programme has changed the situation.
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, is responding for Labour.
Referring to Javid’s Today interview, he asks Javid to confirm that 100,000 cases per day would mean around 5,000 people a day developing long Covid.
What will the impact of this be on waiting times?
He says research from Israel shows the Delta variant can be passed on by fully vaccinated people even if they don’t get sick.
What percentage of hospital beds or ICU beds will have to be occupied with Covid cases before the government thinks the NHS is at risk?
And he asks if Javid still supports the argument he made in his Harvard paper (pdf) supporting masks.
Updated
Javid says under-18s who have contact with positive case will also no longer have to isolate from 16 August
Javid says people under the age of 18 are not being offered vaccines.
So anyone under 18 will not have to isolate from 16 August after contact with an infected person, he says. He says instead they will get advice about whether they should get tested.
UPDATE: Javid said:
So in line with the approach for adults, anyone under the age of 18 who is a close contact of a positive case will no longer have to self-isolate.
Instead they’ll be given advice about whether they should get tested, dependent on their age and will need to self-isolate only if they test positive.
These measures will also come into force on August 16 ahead of the autumn school term.
Updated
Javid says if anyone gets their second dose just before or after 16 August, they will have to wait two weeks until this new rule applies to them.
Javid says from 16 August fully vaccinated people will no longer have to isolate after contact with infected person
Javid thanks people for the sacrifices they have made when they have had to self-isolate.
But science has shown a solution, he says. It is the vaccine. He says the vaccination programme has saved more than 27,000 lives, and prevented more than 7 million people getting Covid.
The odds have shifted in our favour, he says.
He says the government will soon be able to take a risk-based approach to isolation.
From 16 August, when even more people are fully vaccinated, and modelling suggests the risk from the virus is even lower, anyone who is a close contact of a case will no longer have to isolate if they have been fully vaccinated.
He says close contacts will be advised to take a PCR test as soon as possible. If they are positive, they will have to isolate - whether they have been vaccinated or not.
UPDATE: This is what Javid said as he announced the new change.
So, from the 16th of August, when even more people will have the protection of both doses and when modelling suggests the risk from the virus will be lower, anyone who’s a close contact of a positive case will no longer have to self-isolate, if they’ve been fully vaccinated.
If someone gets their second dose just before, or after, the 16th of August, they’ll need to wait until two weeks after they get the second jab to benefit from these new freedoms so the vaccine has time to build the maximum possible protection.
As we make this change, we’ll be drawing on the huge capacity we’ve built for testing and sequencing, and advising close contacts who are fully vaccinated to take a PCR test as soon as possible so they can get certainty about their condition.
Of course, anyone who tests positive will have to self-isolate, whether they’ve had the jab or not.
This new approach means we can manage the virus in a way that’s proportionate to the pandemic, while maintaining the freedoms that are so important to us all.
Updated
Sajid Javid starts by saying “freedom is in our sights” because of the “protective wall” provided by the vaccination programme.
He says it was wonderful to describe a world yesterday where people would no longer have to count the people they are meeting.
He understands why some people are cautious, he says. But the government must balance the risks, he says.
Sajid Javid's statement to MPs on Covid
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, is about to make a statement to MPs. He is expected to confirm that people who are fully vaccinated will be allowed to use daily testing instead of having to isolate if they have been in contact with someone testing positive. (See 9.35am.)
More than 500,000 pupils in England out of class because of isolation rules, DfE figures show
The number of children missing school in England because of Covid last week has shot up by 66%, with 641,000 out of the classroom, including more than one in 10 secondary school pupils.
The previous week saw 330,000 pupils self-isolating because of contacts within and outside of school. But the Department for Education said that on 1 July there were 561,000 off for the same reason, including 471,000 because of close contacts within school.
The number of confirmed cases has also rocketed: 28,000 confirmed cases of Covid among pupils were recorded on 1 July, compared with just 15,000 the previous week.
Updated
Labour claims that the government’s failure to support teachers has led to a big increase in the number of them saying they might leave the profession. Referring to an Education Policy Institute survey suggesting that “teachers are now almost twice as likely to leave as they were before the pandemic”, Peter Kyle, a shadow schools minister, said:
The Conservatives’ mismanagement of education is driving teachers from their classrooms, leaving pupils without the personal support they need to thrive. And this is only likely to get worse as we exit the pandemic ...
Teachers and school leaders have worked incredibly hard to support children through the pandemic. Now the government needs to support them, and back Labour’s children’s recovery plan – investing in school staff to ensure every pupil gets the help they need to bounce back from the pandemic and reach their potential.
Updated
In the Times today William Hague has written a good column (paywall) with advice for Sir Keir Starmer, based on Hague’s own experience leading an opposition party making little or no headway against a government run by “a rare political operator, unique in their generation”. Here’s an extract.
On the three occasions that Labour has gained scores of seats to win a large majority – 1945, 1966 and 1997 – it has been associated with the ideas of the future. I struggled in opposition because, having opposed such developments as devolved parliaments and a minimum wage, it was hard to portray my party as best placed to manage them.
You have a bigger issue: making the most of Brexit and looking like you will enjoy its opportunities. That will be hard for you, but since you voted down Theresa May’s softer version of all this, you are partly responsible for how things turned out.
For instance, you are opposing the free trade deal with Australia because of the farming industry. When did you decide to be the farmers’ party, rather than of all the young people who will be able to live and work in Australia? On countless comparable issues, you need to show some enthusiasm for the future, not hope it goes away.
Conservatives can win elections for several reasons: because they are the safe option, because their opponents are divided, or because they have the best vision of the future. Labour only wins when it is the future. I hope you don’t mind me pointing that out.
Updated
LGA calls for debate on impact long Covid will have on demand for social care
The Local Government Association, which is starting its (virtual) annual conference today, has called for a public debate about the impact that long Covid will have, not just on the NHS, but on the demand for social care (a council responsibility). In a statement David Fothergill, chair of the LGA’s community wellbeing board, said:
The scientific consensus is that coronavirus will be with us in some form for many months and years ahead and councils with their public health and social care responsibilities want to play their full part in keeping our communities safe, healthy and protected.
We are only beginning to learn more about the long-term effects of this disease and we need to start planning now for what could be a potential increase in requests for care and support and other council services due to Covid-related conditions.
As we look towards our eventual exit from the pandemic, all of us involved in the response to the pandemic – central and local government, the medical and scientific community - need to have an honest debate about the potential implications of long Covid on resources and capacity, not just in terms of pressures on the NHS, but also on our overstretched and under-pressure social care system and other vital council services.
The Office for Budget Responsibility says the UK faces three “large, and potentially catastrophic, sources of fiscal risks”: the pandemic, the climate crisis, and the UK’s public debt (which is now over £2tn, or around 100% of GDP) and its exposure to higher interest rates, my colleague Graeme Wearden reports. Graeme has full coverage on his business live blog.
Updated
The European Commission has urged the UK to implement the Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland, against a backdrop of deteriorating relations.
In a speech that revealed mistrust of Boris Johnson’s government, the European Commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič called on the government to “live up to its international obligations”.
“Trust is a two-way street,” Šefčovič told a conference organised by the EU-UK Forum, which seeks to promote post-Brexit co-operation.
We have already shown in the protocol that we are willing to trust, because for the first time the EU has entrusted the control of its economic border to an outside partner. But there is still a lack of implementation of this agreement by our partner, the UK. So we need to see the pathway to compliance as soon as possible. We need to be able to trust the UK to live up to its international obligations.
The speech was given in a video message recorded on Monday, two days after the publication of an article by the Brexit minister, Lord Frost, and the Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis, widely seen by the EU as a provocation.
UK government sources reject the suggestion they are not implementing the protocol and have highlighted £500m spent on helping businesses adapt to the new rules. Since the Brexit deal was agreed at the end of last year, the two sides have fallen out over the Irish protocol, an agreement to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland that keeps Northern Ireland in the EU customs union and single market.
In the article in the Irish Times the government ministers said there was “a seriously unbalanced situation” in Northern Ireland because of the protocol, which they claimed was putting the Good Friday agreement at risk.
Their intervention has appalled EU officials, coming days after the EU agreed to extend a grace period that pauses the dispute over sausages and chilled meats. “We were pretty disappointed” by the article, said one, who said it contained “mistakes” and a failure to acknowledge the EU’s recent promises to amend the protocol, as well as a pledge to change EU law on medicines to ensure the availability of generic drugs in Northern Ireland.
“We really bent over backwards to get everything over the line, to get that grace period done and dusted ... If there is still aggression then that’s on them,” the EU official said.
Updated
Prof Anthony Costello, a former director of the World Health Organisation and a member of Independent Sage, the independent group of scientists offering alternative Covid policy recommendations, has written a long and damning thread on Twitter about what the government is doing. It starts here.
The story so far. About the failure of public health. Not masks. Look at the death rates in China (pop 1.4bn), Vietnam (100m), USA (340m) and UK (68m). Yes, you cannot see the death curves in the first two because they are so low. (1) pic.twitter.com/cppTqJ08Uk
— Anthony Costello (@globalhlthtwit) July 6, 2021
He also reveals that he has Covid himself, despite being fully vaccinated.
So that's what I'm doing. Fully vaccinated I contracted Covid a week ago. Not pleasant. Isolating. And listening to the radio, to experts who say we're in 'the endgame', how well we've done, we can get back to normal. Er.. and wear a face mask if you're worried. (20)
— Anthony Costello (@globalhlthtwit) July 6, 2021
Tory MP Simon Hoare apologises for joke about loyalist bonfires
Simon Hoare, a Conservative MP and chairman of the Northern Ireland affairs select committee, has apologised for a tweet that joked about loyalist bonfires.
On 11 July hundreds of bonfires, some several storeys high, will blaze across Northern Ireland to commemorate the victory of King William of Orange over Catholic forces at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690. Parades the next day mark the “glorious twelfth”.
“Who knew William of Orange arrived in Ireland with hundreds of wooden pallets hence the traditional pallet burning fiesta began,” Hoare tweeted on Monday.
Some loyalists and unionists took umbrage and accused the MP of sneering.
Hoare, a familiar figure in the region from online hearings about Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol, deleted the tweet and apologised.
Earlier I posted a Tweet which was never intended to cause the offence it has to some in NI. I want to say fully & unequivocally that I am sorry. I intended only to be humorous/tongue in cheek & I got it wrong. I hope my apology will be accepted. It is sincere & heartfelt
— Simon Hoare MP (@Simon4NDorset) July 5, 2021
The Ulster Unionist party leader Doug Beattie accepted the apology. Not so Kate Hoey, the former Labour MP, who accuses Hoare of siding with nationalists.
Sincere and heartfelt ?? Well we will see if he can refrain from his regular snide remarks and obvious anti Unionist and loyalist views and his pandering to nationalists and the Irish Government @NIConservative https://t.co/jFInwvlBeg
— Kate Hoey (@CatharineHoey) July 5, 2021
Updated
The Scottish government’s goal remains to ease restrictions further on 19 July and remove all legal restrictions on 9 August, despite WHO data yesterday showing that over half of Europe’s Covid hotspots were in Scotland.
Kate Forbes, the finance secretary, told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme that ministers were reviewing the data on a daily, “if not hourly”, basis, but added:
We saw over the weekend that in some of the figures were stabilising, and if those cases continue to stabilise then our hope would be to reopen on the descending path of this third wave rather than on the ascending path.
Following the prime minister’s confirmation that most of England’s restrictions will be scrapped on 19 July, Forbes added:
We all want to get back to some form of normality and the first minister has set out in Scotland our own timetable. There are some similarities but there are two fundamental differences with Boris Johnson’s announcement yesterday.
The first is on the timetable itself. We have said that all of Scotland could move to level zero on July 19, so that includes the easing of physical distancing indoors and outdoors, and then we’ll move beyond level zero from August 9.
National clinical director Jason Leitch told the same programme that Scotland had some of the highest numbers across the UK and Europe for two reasons. He said:
[The Delta variant] got seeded into our biggest, dense city in Glasgow and we’ve got less natural immunity because we haven’t been at the top of this league table throughout the pandemic.
According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, 1.1% of the deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending Friday 25 June involved coronavirus (99 deaths out of 8,690). That is the same percentage as the previous week, although the actual number of Covid deaths fell marginally from 102 to 99.
Prof Neil Ferguson said the government’s decision to lift most restrictions for England from 19 July was “a slight gamble”. (See 9.54am). Prof Calum Semple, another government adviser, and a member of Sage (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), told Times Radio he had a different way of putting it. He said:
I wouldn’t say this is a gamble, it’s more of a calculated risk.
We do have good data now that does indicate we are gradually breaking the links in the chain between community cases and severe cases in hospital.
I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn’t had the chance to develop immunity, so that’s within 28 days of the vaccine.
There’s now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people.
At the Downing Street press conference last night Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, declined to say how high the daily death toll might rise after 19 July, when most restrictions in England get lifted, although he said the government’s modelling would be published as usual in due course.
But, in the light of Sajid Javid’s comment this morning about cases possibly reaching 100,000 a day over the summer (see 9.35am), Layla Moran, the Lib Dem MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on coronavirus, has said the government should release these estimates now. She said:
The health secretary must clarify what this figure would mean for hospitalisations, deaths and long Covid cases, and what the expected impact on the NHS will be. The government must not fly blind into a situation where the virus is allowed to run rampant while the patchwork of support services for long Covid patients is stretched to breaking point.
She also said ministers should explain what their plans mean for the clinically vulnerable. She said:
We also need urgent clarity on the impact of these plans on the clinically vulnerable and immuno-suppressed. Many of these people are deeply worried about protections like mask-wearing being dropped on July 19. For them, so-called freedom day risks meaning their freedoms to travel or visit crowded indoor places are taken away.
Prof Ferguson says opening up a 'slight gamble' and restrictions might have to return if cases rise too high
Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist who leads one of the teams that produces modelling used by the government to inform Covid policy making, told the Today programme this morning that, although case numbers were set to increase substantially, hospitalisations and deaths were likely to be much lower than in the past. He explained:
This third wave is going to look very different from the second wave. In terms of cases per day, I think we will at least reach 50,000, I think [Boris Johnson] was saying in his statement what he was expecting to see in the next couple of weeks, it will likely go higher than that.
But what we do know is in the second wave there was a certain ratio between cases and hospitalisations and that ratio right now is being reduced by more than two-thirds. As we get more second doses into people it will go down even further.
Even more positively, the ratio which we saw in the past between case numbers and deaths has been reduced by more like eight to ten fold ...
At the peak of the second wave 50,000 cases would translate into something like 500 deaths, but that’s going to be much lower this time, more like 50 or so.
Ferguson said the government’s decision to lift most remaining restrictions for England from 19 July was justifiable. But it was still a “slight gamble”, he said. And he said it was possible that restrictions might be needed again. He told the programme:
The challenge is, there’s still the potential of getting very large numbers of cases and so if we get very high numbers of cases a day, 150,000 or 200,000 it could still cause some pressure to the health system.
This is a slight gamble, it’s a slight experiment at the moment, and I think it’s justifiable and I’m reasonable optimistic, but policy will have to remain flexible.
If we end up in something close to the worst-case scenario we and other groups are looking at, which I think is unlikely but can’t be ruled out, then yes there will need to be some course direction later.
Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative chair of the Commons health committee, told the Today programme this morning that he supported the government’s move to remove restrictions for England, and to rely instead on expecting people to act responsibly. But he said it would be a mistake to suggest this was irreversible. He explained:
At the moment, the projections are that the deaths from Covid will actually be less than some of our worst years for flu. When you have that kind of change, I think it’s reasonable to change the social contract to one of co-operation, rather than compulsion.
But I think we have got to be careful about using the language of irreversibility, because we still have 350,000 new infections every day across the world, there is still room for the vaccine-busting variants that we are all worried about. So we have to be on our guard and recognise that things may sadly yet change.
Sajid Javid says new cases could reach 100,000 per day over the summer
Good morning. Sajid Javid, the new health secretary, has been doing the morning interview round and he has given more details of how Covid case numbers are expected to go up after 19 July, when almost all the remaining restrictions for England are due to be relaxed. Yesterday Boris Johnson said cases could reach 50,000 a day within a fortnight. Today Javid went further. Here are the main points from his interviews.
- Javid said cases could reach 100,000 a day by the summer. He told the Today programme:
By the time we get to the 19th, we would expect case numbers by then to be at least double what they are now, so around 50,000 new cases a day. As we ease and go into the summer, we expect them to rise significantly and they could go as high as 100,000 case numbers.
We want to be very straightforward about this, about what we can expect in terms of case numbers. But what matters more than anything is hospitalisation and death numbers, and that is where the link has been severely weakened.
- But he said the proportion of cases leading to people being hospitalised was just a thirtieth of what it was earlier in the pandemic. He said:
What we have seen is a severe weakening in the link [between cases and hospitalisations]. The link hasn’t broken and no one is pretending it has; there isn’t enough evidence for that yet. But what we have seen is a very severe weakening.
And just to put a number on that – at the moment we are seeing around 25,000 new cases a day. The last time was saw numbers like that we sadly had deaths of around 500 a day. And now we are at about one-thirtieth of that.
And that is because [of] the impact of the vaccine, number one, but also the impact of the treatments; the treatments that we have today are far better than when this pandemic began.
- He rejected suggestions that the government had a figure in mind for what it considered an acceptable level of deaths. “It’s not about some number of deaths being acceptable, of course not,” he told Sky News, when this question was put to him.
- He said that plans to change self-isolation rules for people who have been in contact with someone testing positive would be announced today. He told BBC Breakfast:
We will have a more proportionate system of test, trace and isolate, and it is absolutely right that those that have been double-jabbed that we can take a different approach than the one we take today. In terms of what we will be doing exactly, you will have to wait for my statement to parliament later today.
The government is expected to say that daily testing can replace isolation for people who are fully vaccinated. According to the Commons order paper, Jo Churchill will be making a Commons statement, not Javid, but that could change.
- Javid said that he would continue to wear a mask after 19 July in some circumstances. He said:
For the foreseeable future I will be carrying a face mask with me, I think that’s a very responsible thing for anyone to do.
As I have said, the pandemic is not over.
If I’m in a crowded or enclosed space, I will wear a face mask. In fact I will wear one if I was next to someone or near someone that felt uncomfortable with others not wearing face masks.
And that’s what I mean by personal responsibility.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Boris Johnson chairs cabinet.
9.30am: The ONS publishes its weekly death figures for England and Wales.
9.30am: Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, and Jamie Driscoll, the North of Tyne mayor, give evidence to the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee on devolution.
10.45am: George Eustice, the environment secretary, gives evidence to the Lords environment and climate change committee.
11am: The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes a report on fiscal risk.
12pm: Downing Street is due to hold its daily lobby briefing.
12.30pm: Sajid Javid, the health secretary, makes a statement to MPs on Covid.
Around 1.30pm: Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, makes a statement to MPs on Covid and schools.
2.05pm: Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, gives a speech to the Local Government Association virtual conference.
2.30pm: Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, gives evidence to the Commons foreign affairs committee.
Politics Live has been a mix of Covid and non-Covid news recently and that will probably be the case today. For more coronavirus developments, do follow our global Covid live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com
Updated
