Summary
Here is a round-up of all today’s top Covid and politics stories from the UK:
- There have been 119,789 new Covid cases and 147 more coronavirus-related deaths registered in the past 24 hours in the UK. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said there had been 16,817 additional confirmed cases of the Omicron variant of Covid reported across the UK.
- The Omicron variant of Covid is less likely to result in severe disease and hospital admission, government public health experts have said. Publishing preliminary findings of its research into the new variant, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said Omicron appears to result in less severe disease for those infected with it.
- Nicola Sturgeon has warned against getting “carried away” with the latest Omicron data, as she again rejected pressure to reduce the 10-day Covid isolation period in Scotland.
- There is “no doubt that if you are unvaccinated you are hugely at more risk of hospitalisation, severe illness and even death,” a scientist has said. Prof Anthony Harnden, of the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation, told BBC News this is backed up by the “proportion of patients that are unvaccinated that are ending up with severe illness in hospitals around the country”.
- The NHS is preparing to expand capacity in case a “surge” of healthcare is needed, but will be able to manage increased hospital cases.
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The number of NHS staff off sick because of Covid is soaring, new figures show, raising fresh fears about how hospitals will be able to respond to any Omicron-driven surge in patients needing care.
- Latest estimates from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) have found that around one in 45 people in private households in England had Covid in the week to 16 December, up from one in 60 the previous week.
- Nightclubs in Scotland are to close from 27 December for a three-week period, the deputy first minister, John Swinney, has announced.
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More than six in 10 care home staff in England have not received a booster jab, figures suggest, despite the ramping up of the vaccine rollout as Omicron spreads.
- A decision on whether all children aged five to 11 might get the jab “is still under very active consideration”, a member of Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has said.
- A total of 2,097 people were in hospital in London with Covid as of 8am on 23 December, according to new figures from NHS England. This is the highest number since 27 February and is up 44% from a week earlier. During the second wave of coronavirus, the number peaked at 7,917 on January 18.
- A total of 840,038 booster and third doses of Covid vaccine were reported in the UK on Wednesday, new figures show.The is the lowest daily figure since 15 December.
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Some people may need a fourth dose of Covid vaccine to remain protected, a government scientific adviser has said, with a decision expected shortly after the Christmas and new year holidays.
- Two Premier League games scheduled for Boxing Day have been called off because of Covid outbreaks at Leeds and Watford.
- The Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall will be with the Queen on Christmas Day, a Clarence House spokesman has confirmed.
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People crossing the Channel in small boats to claim asylum could be tagged on arrival under Home Office plans, it has emerged. The home secretary, Priti Patel, is expected to announce the plan early in the new year as part of her overhaul of the immigration system.
- Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has urged Russia to enter talks in January over its military build-up on the border of Ukraine.
That’s it for today from me, Tom Ambrose, and indeed from the UK politics and Covid blog. You can still keep across all breaking news in the global coronavirus blog here. Goodbye for now.
Evidence that infections caused by Omicron may be less severe than other Covid variants is good news but is likely to make little or no difference to the duration of the pandemic, according to experts.
Several pieces of research published this week suggested that those infected with Omicron were much less likely to require hospitalisation.
People with the variant are estimated to be between 31% and 45% less likely to attend A&E compared with the Delta variant, and 50% to 70% less likely to be require admission to hospital, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Thursday.
Separately, researchers at the University of Edinburgh studied infections from the Delta and Omicron variants since November, and said the results “suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of Covid-19 hospitalisation when compared with Delta”.
In non-Covid related news from Westminster today, the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has urged Russia to enter talks in January over its military build-up on the border of Ukraine.
Ms Truss’s call for dialogue comes after Russian troops have reportedly been massing along the border with Ukraine over the last few months, with the Foreign Secretary also warning that any “incursion” would be a “massive mistake”.
The Foreign Secretary said:
I condemn the Kremlin’s aggressive and inflammatory rhetoric against Ukraine and Nato. Nato is a defensive alliance and Ukraine continues to show commendable restraint in the face of Russian provocation and aggression.”
Russia’s military build-ups on the border of Ukraine and in illegally-annexed Crimea are unacceptable. Any Russian incursion would be a massive strategic mistake and would be met with strength, including coordinated sanctions with our allies to impose a severe cost on Russia’s interests and economy.
The UK’s support for Ukraine is unwavering.
Omicron less likely to result in hospitalisation - UKHSA
The Omicron variant of Covid is less likely to result in severe disease and hospital admission, government public health experts have said.
Publishing preliminary findings of its research into the new variant, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said Omicron appears to result in less severe disease for those infected with it, the Press Association reported.
However, the agency warned that the new strain is more transmissible than previous variants such as Delta, and could still lead to significant numbers of people needing hospital treatment over coming weeks. Health Secretary Sajid Javid welcomed the latest data as “promising” but urged the public to remain cautious over the Christmas break, adding it was “still too early to determine next steps”.
The results of the research are consistent with that of two other early studies into Omicron by Imperial College London and the University of Edinburgh, both released on Wednesday. According to analysis by the UKHSA, the risk of hospital admission for an identified case with Omicron is reduced compared with a case of Delta.
Someone with Omicron is estimated to be as much as 45% less likely to attend A&E compared with Delta, and as much as 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital. However, Omicron is believed to be infecting more people who have previously had Covid, with 9.5% of people with Omicron having had it before.
Vaccination is also believed to give less protection against Omicron, although a booster jab provides more protection against symptomatic disease compared with the first two doses alone. Data suggests protection starts to wane 10 weeks after booster vaccination.
Mr Javid said:
This new UKHSA data on Omicron is promising - while two doses of the vaccine aren’t enough, we know boosters offer significant protection against the variant and early evidence suggests this strain may be less severe than Delta.
However, cases of the variant continue to rise at an extraordinary rate - already surpassing the record daily number in the pandemic. Hospital admissions are increasing, and we cannot risk the NHS being overwhelmed.
This is early-stage analysis and we continue to monitor the data hour by hour. It is still too early to determine next steps, so please stay cautious this Christmas and get your booster as soon as possible to protect yourself and your loved ones.
A total of 2,097 people were in hospital in London with Covid as of 8am on 23 December, according to new figures from NHS England.
This is the highest number since 27 February and is up 44% from a week earlier. During the second wave of coronavirus, the number peaked at 7,917 on January 18.
Across England, 7,114 patients were in hospital with Covid on 23 December, the highest number since 4 November and up 11% week-on-week. The second-wave peak for England was 34,336 on 18 January.
There were 307 Covid admissions recorded by hospitals in London on 21 December, NHS England said.
Motorways brought to a standstill and cancelled trains marred the first Christmas getaway in two years.
Millions of people are embarking on trips to spend the festive period with friends and relatives, after coronavirus restrictions forced many to miss out on such visits 12 months ago.
A survey of nearly 2,000 people in Britain for watchdog Transport Focus indicated that 44% plan to travel to spend Christmas with loved ones, the Press Association reported. There was a three-mile-long traffic jam on the M5 northbound between Junction 20 for Clevedon and Junction 19 for Bristol after a vehicle fire caused the closure of two lanes at around 9am on Thursday.
National Highways said there was also severe congestion on several motorways in England, including the M25, M4 and M6. An estimated 5.3 million journeys by people embarking on overnight stays or day trips will take place on Friday with major roads busiest between 11am and 2pm, according to RAC analysis.
Although demand for rail travel is at around 50% of pre-pandemic levels, thousands of people are travelling by train to spend Christmas with loved ones.
A person being hit by a train between Stockport and Manchester Piccadilly caused major disruption to operators including Avanti West Coast, Northern and TransPennine Express. CrossCountry is warning it will run a “very limited service” on Friday and New Year’s Eve due to strikes by train managers and senior conductors who are members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT).
The firm will not operate any trains on Friday between Aberdeen and Edinburgh; Glasgow Central and Edinburgh; Derby and Nottingham; Leicester and Stansted Airport; Cheltenham Spa and Cardiff Central; Newton Abbot and Paignton; or Plymouth and Penzance.
Hundreds of trains have also been cancelled across Britain due to pandemic-related staff shortages. Affected operators include CrossCountry, Avanti West Coast, Northern, ScotRail, TransPennine Express and Greater Anglia.
More than six in 10 care home staff in England have not received a booster jab, figures suggest, despite the ramping up of the vaccine rollout as Omicron spreads.
Some 37.6% of staff in care homes for older residents and 33.5% of staff in homes for younger adults had received a booster as of December 19, according to the latest figures from NHS England.
This leaves more than 340,000 staff who have not been recorded as having had their booster, without which they do not have the optimum protection against the rapidly spreading Omicron variant.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has asked care home staff to come forward as soon as possible, the Press Association reported. The proportion of residents who have been boosted is much higher, standing at 82.3% of older residents and 68.7% of younger residents.
It comes as government figures showed a total of 51,617,091 first doses of Covid vaccine had been delivered in the UK by 22 December, representing a rise of 39,309 on the previous day. Some 47,210,053 second doses have been delivered, an increase of 53,154.
A combined total of 31,684,926 booster and third doses have also been given, a day-on-day rise of 840,038. Separate totals for booster and third doses are not available.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said 70 million lateral flow tests were dispatched across the UK last week.
He wrote on Twitter: “Thank you to everyone across the country involved in our national testing mission.
“We have the largest testing capacity in Europe, and last week over 70 million lateral flow tests were dispatched.
“Only through testing can we fundamentally track infections & understand COVID-19.”
Thank you to everyone across the country involved in our national testing mission.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 23, 2021
We have the largest testing capacity in Europe, and last week over 70 million lateral flow tests were dispatched.
Only through testing can we fundamentally track infections & understand COVID-19. pic.twitter.com/uANm6ILtZ5
UK records 119,789 new Covid cases and 147 more deaths
There have been 119,789 new Covid cases and 147 more coronavirus-related deaths registered in the past 24 hours in the UK.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said there had been 16,817 additional confirmed cases of the Omicron variant of Covid reported across the UK.
This brings the total confirmed cases of the variant in the UK to 90,906.
Separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have now been 173,000 deaths registered in the UK where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.
Updated
In Northern Ireland, the Stormont health minister, Robin Swann, has warned against Covid complacency following research indicating that the Omicron variant may be less severe than Delta.
The minister said Omicron, which is now the dominant variant in Northern Ireland, still posed a significant threat to health and social care services. He said:
There remains a great deal of uncertainty about Omicron. Some early research from Great Britain suggests it may be less severe than the Delta variant in terms of the proportion of infected people who require treatment in hospital.
More information is still required and the findings are not definitive. I must emphasise that this early research definitely does not mean that Omicron should be taken any less seriously.
It is much more infectious than Delta and will therefore lead to much greater levels of infection. Even with a lower proportion being hospitalised, if the number of cases rises to very high levels, the number of Covid in-patients will increase as well. Pressure on our hospitals could therefore be significantly increased.
Updated
The number of NHS staff off sick because of Covid is soaring, new figures show, raising fresh fears about how hospitals will be able to respond to any Omicron-driven surge in patients needing care.
One health service leader said the NHS was now facing “a double emergency” of growing numbers of people hospitalised with Covid alongside increasing sickness absence on the frontline.
The number of staff days lost to Covid across the NHS in England hit 124,855 last week, a 38% jump on the 90,277 the week before, according to the latest “winter sitreps” data published by NHS England.
The total number of staff absences for any medical reason – such as a cold, flu or mental health problem – also increased, though less steeply, from 416,995 to 457,135, a rise of 10%.
Updated
Here’s a slightly bewildering story from the Press Association about a group of anti-vaxxers trying - and failing dismally - to serve papers on the former England and Newcastle United footballer Alan Shearer.
The hapless protesters attempted to “serve papers” on ex-footballer Alan Shearer but comically dropped them off at the wrong house. The former England captain and Newcastle United hero last week had urged people to get the booster in a video promoted by the Premier League.
In the clip, Shearer said: “We all want to keep safe on a matchday and the best way we can protect ourselves and other people is to get vaccinated.” His stance led anti-vaccination protesters to film themselves on Wednesday outside an address near Newcastle which they believed to be his family home.
In the video they shared on social media, three men and a woman, plus someone recording the scene, gathered outside a gated property and after pressing an electronic buzzer, one of them posted documents into an external letterbox.
It is unclear what the papers contained, but anti-vaccination protesters routinely share templates of supposed legal documents which they film themselves depositing. But a commenter on the group’s Facebook post suggested Shearer no longer lived at the property.
And a local person who has seen the video told the PA News agency: “That’s an old address they have for him.” Northumbria police said it had no involvement in the incident.
Lawyer Adam Wagner, a human rights expert and commentator on Covid legislation, poured scorn on the anti-vaccination protesters’ claims of using the law. The Doughty Street barrister said:
It is difficult to overemphasise how spurious it all is. It is wrong and should not be indulged by anyone. This is so far down into the depths of legal fantasy, people should not be doing it, no-one should be sharing it.
Updated
Power cables are believed to have been stolen from a vaccination centre in the middle of a surge in Omicron cases.
The leads, used for a generator at a site in Tonbridge, Kent, were reported missing by the local MP Tom Tugendhat on Twitter on Thursday.
Tugendhat took to the social media site to try and source new cables to get the centre up and running for the day, the Press Association reported.
The Tonbridge and Malling MP, who has served as chairman of the foreign affairs committee since 2017, said:
Someone has stolen the leads to the generator of the vaccination centre on Sovereign Way, Tonbridge. We need to replace them urgently.
Shortly before 10am, Tugendhat confirmed the site was operational again and vaccines were going ahead.
Thank you for all the offers. I’m delighted to say @NHSuk is back up and running and vaccinating in Tonbridge. Thank you for pulling together - Tonbridge is a fantastic community and I hope we’re about to see @kent_police at their best..! Merry Christmas…to most people! https://t.co/VbVL21dvOX
— Tom Tugendhat (@TomTugendhat) December 23, 2021
He said on Twitter: “Thank you for all the offers. I’m delighted to say NHSuk is back up and running and vaccinating in Tonbridge. Thank you for pulling together – Tonbridge is a fantastic community and I hope we’re about to see kent-police at their best..! Merry Christmas... to most people!”
Kent police said they were “sending a patrol to the scene to try and establish more details”.
Updated
A total of 840,038 booster and third doses of Covid vaccine were reported in the UK on Wednesday, new figures show.
The is the lowest daily figure since 15 December.
More than 31.6m booster and third doses have now been delivered in the UK, with 6.2m in the past seven days.
The figures have been published by the UK’s four health agencies.
Updated
Covid infection levels reach record high
Covid infection levels have reached a record high in the UK, new data shows, as the health secretary maintained no further restrictions would be set out before Christmas.
An estimated 1.4 million people in the UK had the virus in the week ending 16 December, the highest number since comparable figures began in autumn 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
The data emerged within hours of Sajid Javid telling broadcasters the government was not planning to make any more announcements on restrictions in England this week.
It follows a warning from the NHS England national medical director, Prof Stephen Powis, that the service is on a “war footing” as the Omicron variant sweeps through the country.
Updated
Some people may need four Covid jabs, expert says
Some people may need a fourth dose of Covid vaccine to remain protected, a government scientific adviser has said, with a decision expected shortly after the Christmas and new year holidays.
Prof Adam Finn said:
I think there may well be people who received their boosters early who are in the older more vulnerable age groups who may need a further jab. That has not been decided yet. It is still under review and discussion, and we will be providing recommendations on that at some point in the new year.
Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), told LBC Radio on Thursday: “I think there will be people probably who will receive a fourth jab. Whether that will be everyone, I think, is still very much in doubt … We do need to see how things go through this wave and beyond.”
On Tuesday, Israel became the first country to announce it would offer a fourth dose of vaccine to people over 60 and healthcare workers, in an effort to increase protection against the Omicron variant.
Healthcare workers around the world have been on the frontline of the coronavirus pandemic for almost two years, which put them through the darkest days of their careers.
Five doctors who have worked in hospitals in Uganda, New Zealand and the US, India, England, and Brazil told the Guardian about how the pandemic has tested them personally and professionally, but how they continue to find hope and resolve to keep working.
Cross-Channel asylum seekers could be tagged under Home Office plans
People crossing the Channel in small boats to claim asylum could be tagged on arrival under Home Office plans, it has emerged.
The home secretary, Priti Patel, is expected to announce the plan early in the new year as part of her overhaul of the immigration system.
According to a government source familiar with the plan, ministers believe that making working-age people wear tags while their asylum claims are processed would make it harder for them to work illegally during this period – reducing the UK’s “pull factor”.
Ministers also believe that tags would stop people absconding during the application process. The government wants more people whose asylum applications fail to be removed from the country, although absconding is only one factor and there are significant legal reasons why removal numbers are low, including the UK’s post-Brexit withdrawal from the Dublin agreements, which enabled people to be returned to EU countries they had travelled through.
More than 27,000 people have arrived in the UK this year by crossing the Channel on small boats, up from 8,500 in 2020, and Patel has faced strong criticism, particularly from within the Conservative party, for not doing more to curb these numbers.
Two Premier League games scheduled for Boxing Day have been called off because of Covid outbreaks at Leeds and Watford.
Leeds’ game at Liverpool and Watford’s at Wolves have become the 11th and 12th top-flight matches postponed as a consequence of the virus. The affected clubs made postponement requests that were accepted by the league’s board.
The Premier League said: “The league is aware that the decision to postpone these two matches will disappoint supporters and understands their frustrations at a special time of year when fans look forward to attending and watching football games. The league aims to provide as much clarity as possible, but unfortunately postponements sometimes have to be made at short notice, as safety is the priority. The league will endeavour to keep supporters updated if games become at risk on a matchday.
“The board concluded that Leeds United will not be able to fulfil their fixture this weekend due to the number of players with Covid-19, injuries and illness. The club’s training ground has also been closed after consultation with the UK Health Security Agency and the Premier League.
“Watford FC continue to have an insufficient number of players to field a team after their game against Crystal Palace FC last Saturday was postponed following a Covid-19 outbreak. Due to players coming out of isolation, it is fully expected Watford will be available for their fixture on Tuesday 28 December, against West Ham United.”
One in 45 people in England had Covid last week
It is proving to be a bumper day for anyone interested in coronavirus data and statistics.
Latest estimates from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) have found that around one in 45 people in private households in England had Covid in the week to 16 December, up from one in 60 the previous week. One in 45 is the equivalent of about 1.2 million people and is the highest number since the ONS began estimating infection levels for England in May 2020, the Press Association reports.
In Wales, around one in 55 people is estimated to have had Covid in the week to 16 December, unchanged from the previous week and below the recent record high of one in 40. In Northern Ireland, the latest estimate is one in 50 people, also unchanged from the previous week and slightly below the record high of one in 40 in mid-August.
For Scotland, the latest estimate is one in 70, up from one in 80 the previous week and below September’s peak of one in 45. All figures are for people in private households.
Meanwhile, the percentage of people testing positive in the latest week is estimated to have increased in all regions of England except the north-east, south-west and West Midlands, where the trend is uncertain, the ONS said.
In London, around one in 30 people was likely to test positive in the week to 16 December - the highest proportion for any region. Yorkshire and the Humber had the lowest proportion, at around one in 65.
When modelling the level of Covid infections among different age ranges in England, the ONS said rates have increased in the latest week for all groups except those from school year 7 to 11 and for people aged 70 and over, where the trend is uncertain. Rates were highest for those aged two to school year 6, at 5.9%.
Updated
The UK public’s appetite for eating out has plunged to its weakest since the spring amid growing evidence of the impact of the Omicron variant on the hospitality sector during its crucial pre-Christmas period.
The number of seated diners fell by 14 percentage points in the week ending 20 December to 88% of the level in the same period of 2019, before the start of the pandemic, according to the weekly digest of flash economic indicators from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Using data from the online restaurant booking site OpenTable and other sources, the ONS said Britons were eating out less and working from home more in response to rising infection rates and the government’s plan B measures.
Amid widespread reports of bookings being cancelled, the drop in the number of diners in the latest week was the sharpest since early September and the lowest level since restaurants reopened indoors in England, Scotland and Wales in May after last winter’s lockdown. It was also the first time the weekly comparison with 2019 has dropped below 100% since May.
Restaurants in London have been especially hard hit by Omicron, with the number of diners in the latest week falling 18 points to 57% of the level in the same period of 2019. In Manchester, despite an eight-point drop on the week, the number of diners stood at 104% of the level in the run-up to Christmas 2019.
The number of people waiting for treatment from NHS Wales has reached record levels, with the Welsh government admitting they are likely to continue to rise.
There are now 680,000 patients on the waiting list - the highest recorded figure since comparable data was first collected in 2011.
Although waiting list figures were high prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the number typically varied each month between 400,000 to 500,000 and tended to be highest in late summer and lowest in January. However, since April 2020 the number has steadily increased every month.
In October, the latest available data, the number of people yet to begin treatment was over 45% higher than in the same month before the pandemic in 2019. The percentage of people receiving treatment within the target 26-week period from point of referral remains extremely low.
A Welsh government spokesperson said:
Our NHS is facing its toughest winter ever and our hardworking staff continue to show unwavering commitment to delivering high-quality care to hundreds of thousands of patients each month. We have committed £1bn this Senedd term to helping the NHS recover from the pandemic and to treat patients as quickly as possible.
This week we have also committed funding to deliver the Real Living Wage for social workers, who are critical to helping people out of hospital and freeing up bed space. However increasing challenges from Covid pressures mean waiting times have and will continue to rise.
The Welsh government announced on Wednesday an extra £34m for ambulances, including extra staff, non-urgent patient transport and increased military support.
The Welsh Conservative shadow health minister, Russell George, said:
Although coronavirus and the pent-up demand from previous lockdowns is obviously a huge factor in today’s damning statistics, there has to come a point when things get better.
However, Labour’s record over two decades is one where things have gotten perpetually worse: doubling the waiting list in the year before Covid struck, experiencing its worst-ever A&E waits the year before the pandemic, and removing conditions like strokes from the red-call ambulance criteria.
Updated
Sturgeon warns against getting 'carried away' with Omicron data
Nicola Sturgeon has warned against getting “carried away” with the latest Omicron data, as she again rejected pressure to reduce the 10-day Covid isolation period in Scotland.
At the final session of first minister’s questions before the Christmas recess, the Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, criticised Sturgeon for remaining overly cautious despite the latest studies reported yesterday suggesting that the Omicron variant is less severe than Delta.
Ross said that to protect essential services and the economy from a surge in isolation-related absences, adding: “These rules are forcing whole families to self-isolate for 10 days, even if they have tested negative.”
On Wednesday, the UK government reduced the Covid self-isolation period to seven days in an attempt to ease mounting staff shortages.
Sturgeon pointed out that sector-based exemptions to self-isolation rules had been published earlier today, but said she would not make changes to the self-isolation rules until the public health benefits outweighed the risks, explaining: “If we act rashly right now we risk a counterproductive effect …. these studies are really positive but they are also early data. Even the authors are saying ‘don’t get carried away yet with what these studies are telling you’.”
Updated
Covid antibody levels among adults in the UK are estimated to have reached a record high.
Some 95% of the adult population of England is likely to have tested positive for antibodies in the week beginning 29 November, along with 95% in Scotland, 95.3% in Northern Ireland and 93.6% in Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
These are the highest figures for all four nations since the ONS began estimating antibody levels in December 2020.
There has been an increase in antibody positivity in those aged 65 years and over across the UK since early October 2021, which the ONS said was “likely as a result of the vaccination booster programme”.
The figures do not include people in hospital, care homes or other communal establishments.
Updated
Sajid Javid also said he welcomed studies which have suggested the Omicron variant may cause less severe illness than earlier strains but warned it could still lead to “significant” hospital admissions.
“That is, of course, good, encouraging news. They are not very clear yet though by how much that risk is reduced,” he said, adding:
We do know with Omicron that it does spread a lot more quickly, it is a lot more infectious than Delta, so any advantage gained from reduced risk of hospitalisation needs to be set against that.
If a much smaller percentage of people are at risk of hospitalisation, if that is a smaller percentage of a much larger number, there could still be significant hospitalisation.
The first UK data of its kind found that the Omicron variant of coronavirus does indeed appear to be milder, with a 20%-25% reduced chance of a hospital visit and at least a 40% lower risk of being admitted overnight.
In what was described by scientists as a “qualified good news story”, two studies on Wednesday pointed to a lower risk of hospitalisation with Omicron.
An Imperial College outbreak modelling team led by Prof Neil Ferguson analysed hospitalisations and vaccine records among all PCR-confirmed Covid cases in England between 1 and 14 December. The dataset included 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta.
Sajid Javid says there will be no further announcements on Covid restrictions in England before Christmas
The health secretary, Sajid Javid, has said there will be no further announcements on Covid restrictions in England before Christmas.
He told broadcasters on Thursday:
We are not planning any further announcements this week. Despite the caution that we are all taking, people should enjoy their Christmases with their families and their friends – of course, remain cautious.
We will keep the situation under review. We are learning more all the time as we have done from this new data. We will keep analysing that data and if we need to do anything more we will, but nothing more is going to happen before Christmas.
He added that staff absences due to Covid were adding to pressures on the NHS but said the easing of self-isolation rules would help.
He said:
The NHS workforce was already under pressure before Omicron came along. There is increased pressure in many workforces at the moment, especially if someone needs to isolate if they have a positive case,” he told broadcasters.
Some of the recent moves we have had, moving from 10-day to seven isolation if you take a test in the last two days, I think all of that will help.
Updated
The Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall will be with the Queen on Christmas Day, a Clarence House spokesman has confirmed.
The Queen is to celebrate Christmas at Windsor Castle, breaking with the tradition of spending festivities at Sandringham in Norfolk for a second year.
Sources stressed that all appropriate guidelines would be followed and sensible precautions would be in place.
It is understood that the decision was a personal one taken after careful consideration and that it reflected her precautionary approach during the pandemic. Downing Street has been informed of her decision.
Unlike at Sandringham, where members of the royal family gather and walk to St Mary Magdalene church, greeting members of the public outside, there is not expected to be any public church visit on 25 December.
Following the news that nightclubs in Scotland are to close from 27 December for a three-week period, the Scottish Tories have called for extra financial support for businesses.
The Scottish Tory Covid-19 recovery spokesman, Murdo Fraser, said also described the latest news as a “further setback to a sector already on its knees as a result of previously-announced restrictions” as Scotland looks to tackle to fast-spreading Omicron variant. He added:
I understand that this is a fast-moving situation but, when announcing this enforced shutdown, John Swinney should have spelt out the exact details of the support package that will be given to nightclub businesses, rather than merely promising an update on allocation ‘as soon as possible’.
That’s not good enough - businesses on the brink need to know now exactly what financial support they will receive, and when.
The SNP government has been given an extra £440m in assistance from the UK government. They need to get that money out the door and into the hands of beleaguered Scottish businesses immediately.
Updated
Wait times for patients arriving by ambulances at hospital A&Es in England fell slightly last week, according to the latest figures.
One in five patients waited at least half an hour to be handed over from ambulance teams to hospital staff, with a total of 16,410 delays of 30 minutes or more were recorded across all acute trusts in the week to 10 December.
It represented 20% of all arrivals, according to NHS England figures, down slightly from 23% of arrivals in the week to 12 December.
Some 7% of arrivals last week (6,124) took more than 60 minutes to be handed over to A&E teams, down from 10% in the previous week, the Press Association reported.
A handover delay does not always mean a patient has waited in the ambulance. They may have been moved into an A&E department, but staff were not available to complete the handover.
Updated
There is “no doubt that if you are unvaccinated you are hugely at more risk of hospitalisation, severe illness and even death,” a scientist has said.
Prof Anthony Harnden, of the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation, told BBC News this is backed up by the “proportion of patients that are unvaccinated that are ending up with severe illness in hospitals around the country”. He said:
We are talking about a three, four, five-fold increased risk of developing severe illness if you are unvaccinated. There is absolutely no doubt that the worrying group of people are the 5 million or so adults who are unvaccinated in this country. I really plead for them to come forward.
Interestingly, in my own practice I have started to notice that some of those unvaccinated people are starting to come forward now.
“I think it is the worry about Omicron and the realisation that it is so infectious and they are so much more likely to be exposed to it than the variants previously. People are starting to come forward, I just hope they come forward in larger numbers.
Updated
Omicron still threat to NHS despite ‘good news’, says health chief
Evidence the Omicron variant is less severe than originally feared does not remove the threat to the NHS this winter, a health service leader has warned.
Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts, said two studies showing that people infected with Omicron were at less risk of being admitted to hospital than those infected with the Delta variant were good news.
But he stressed that it was still not clear exactly what impact the rapid rise in Omicron cases would have on hospital numbers, and said the NHS remained under “incredible pressure”.
Commenting on the studies published on Wednesday, Hopson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:
We still don’t have conclusive data in terms of what impact Omicron could have in terms of level of hospitalisations.
We have some very early studies, but it’s a bit like trying to predict the result of a football game when you’re only a third of the way through.
A study by Imperial College London using data from England suggests that Omicron patients are 40% less likely to need overnight hospital care than Delta patients. A separate report from Scotland found that the risk of hospitalisation could be 70% lower with Omicron than Delta.
Good morning. Tom Ambrose here. I’ll be bringing you all the latest UK politics and coronavirus news from now until 6pm today.
We start with the news that the NHS says it is once again on a “war footing” as it readies itself to battle a rise in hospitalisations related to the highly transmissible Omicron variant of Covid.
The NHS national medical director, Prof Stephen Powis, said:
The NHS is on a war footing and staff are taking the fight to Omicron, by boosting hundreds of thousands of people each day, treating thousands of seriously ill Covid patients and delivering urgent care for other conditions, all while seeing a worrying, high and rising increase in absence due to Covid.
We are once again ramping up to deal with the rise in Covid infections and, quite rightly, staff are making every possible preparation for the uncertain challenges of Omicron, including recruiting thousands of nurses and reservists, but while we’ll leave no stone unturned to get the NHS battle-ready, it remains the case that the best way to protect yourself and others is to follow guidance and to come forward and get your first, second and booster jabs.
It comes as a total of 3,874 NHS staff at acute hospital trusts in London were absent for Covid reasons on 19 December, more than double the number a week earlier (1,540) and more than three times the number at the start of the month (1,174), according to new figures from NHS England.
The total includes staff who were ill with Covid or who were having to self-isolate, according to a Press Association report.
Across England as a whole, 18,829 NHS staff at acute trusts were absent due to Covid reasons on 19 December, up 54% from 12,240 a week earlier and up 51% from 12,508 at the start of the month.
Updated
The NHS is preparing to expand capacity in case a “surge” of healthcare is needed, but will be able to manage increased hospital cases.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, the NHS Providers chief executive, Chris Hopson, said:
What we’re trying to do is at the moment is just what we always do in the NHS, which is to prioritise care based on medical need
We will and we are identifying places that would be needed if we really really needed to surge.
Hopson added that the NHS had handled around 40,000 simultaneous Covid hospital cases last January and would be capable of handling the current rise in admissions, which stands at around 7,000 nationally.
“We can do this, but the issue is, we’re in incredible pressure right the way across the health system,” he said.
New figures from NHS England show 3,874 NHS staff at acute hospital trusts in London were absent due to Covid on 19 December.
This is more than double the number a week earlier (1,540) and more than three times the number at the start of the month (1,174).
The total includes staff who were ill with Covid-19 or who were having to self-isolate.
Across England as a whole, 18,829 NHS staff at acute trusts were absent due to Covid-19 reasons on December 19, up 54% from 12,240 a week earlier and up 51% from 12,508 at the start of the month.
Updated
Nightclubs in Scotland to close
Nightclubs in Scotland are to close from 27 December for a three-week period, the deputy first minister, John Swinney, has announced.
It follows similar moves in Wales and Northern Ireland. The nightclub measure in Scotland is in addition to further hospitality guidance announced on Tuesday.
This included the reintroduction of table service in venues serving alcohol and 1-metre distancing between groups.
Speaking to Holyrood’s Covid recovery committee on Thursday, Swinney said that, having engaged with the sector, the opinion was “closure...combined with financial support may reduce losses and help these businesses weather what we hope will be a short period before they are able to operate normally again”.
Updated
A decision on whether all children aged five to 11 might get the jab “is still under very active consideration”, a member of Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has said.
On Wednesday the committee recommended vaccinations for about 330,000 vulnerable younger children.
But Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at University of Bristol, said the panel had yet to decide about jabbing all younger children.
He told LBC Radio:
There are a number of moving parts to that decision.
We see very, very few severe cases in this young age group, happily, so there is not much serious disease to be prevented.
The factor that persuaded the government to introduce vaccination for older children was the disruption of their education and the ability of vaccines to reduce ... transmission of infection among children as well as between children and adults.
With the Omicron variant, in particular, the ability of the vaccines to do that will be reduced.
Many of these children will now already have had the infection. We just need to weigh up all of those things and make sure that a decision to move forward would benefit those children and actually do some good.
Finn also said it is possible that people may need to get a fourth dose of the coronavirus vaccine. He said:
I think there will be people probably who will receive a fourth jab - whether that will be everyone, I think, is still very much in doubt.
We do need to see how things go through this wave and beyond. I think there may well be people who received their boosters early who are in the older more vulnerable age groups who may need a further jab - that has not been decided yet.
It is still under review and discussion, and we will be providing recommendations on that at some point in the new year.
Dr Nick Davies, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the government’s Spi-M modelling group that advises Sage, warns against misinterpreting the new studies on Omicron.
In a Twitter thread he says the data shows “Omicron wave will tend to infect *relatively* more vulnerable older people than the Delta wave.”
‘IHR’ referred to in his tweets, stands for infection hospitalisation ratio.
There was some confusion over what our models, which assumed Omicron had equal "baseline" severity to Delta, meant for severity in practice. This leads to around a 40% reduction in realised severity within each age group, because more Omicron cases are breakthrough/reinfections. pic.twitter.com/iVc1KbxMtH
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
There was even a @jpmorgan reanalysis of our projections that just cut the hospitalisation numbers in half, because of reports from South Africa that the hospitalisation rate was lower. We were already predicting that the average hospitalisation rate would be lower (see above).
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
New papers by @imperialcollege (report 50) show that A&E visits among Omicron cases are reduced by 30-40%. The former would be "70% baseline severity" which looks like this in practice (these plots are outputs from our model btw which we will add to the next preprint version) pic.twitter.com/UbZffdubQC
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
The same principle that makes Omicron relatively less severe WITHIN each age/risk group—its better ability to infect those with preexisting protection—will tend to shift the case mix, relative to Delta, AMONG the age/risk groups into those that have relatively better protection.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
For a lot of countries, including the UK, this means that the Omicron wave will tend to infect *relatively* more vulnerable older people than the Delta wave, which after all was really primarily in young people.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
To the extent that this shift happens, the overall realised severity across all age groups (i.e. the average IHR) will not decrease as much as the above plots suggest.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
If the fraction of highly-protected older people infected with Omicron is big enough relative to the very small fraction who got Delta, then in theory this could even increase the average IHR even though it is decreasing within each age group. https://t.co/Ba8PItHFGD
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
If in South Africa, there was higher protection among young people prior to Omicron, this same effect would tend to *decrease* the IHR resulting from Omicron if it was shifting the average Omicron case younger relative to Delta.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
The older and vulnerable age groups drive the majority of morbidity and mortality coming out of any model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. If people exercise even a little bit of caution around their vulnerable/elderly relatives this Christmas, that will make a HUGE difference.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
Hence the importance of testing yourself before seeing your friends and family and before / after going out to places where the risk of transmission is high.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
The NHS could still be under huge pressure despite the possibility that the Omicron variant may cause milder disease, another scientist has said.
Prof Paul Elliott, director of the React-1 programme and chair in epidemiology and public health medicine at Imperial College London, said “there are many many cases and sadly some of those people may get severe illness and end up in hospital”.
Speaking to Sky News, he said:
From the beginning of December we saw this very dramatic rise in prevalence across the country, but particularly across London with the R number now substantially above one.
This exponential increase in infections is absolutely being driven by the Omicron variant.
Prof Elliott described it as “encouraging news” that perhaps the infection when you get it might be less severe in terms of hospital cases, but he added:
Of course, with this very very rapid rise and increase in cases - and we have seen the national cases go above 100,000 - then more cases means more pressure (on the health service).
Even though a smaller proportion (of people) might get severe disease or go into hospital, that could still result in many cases and, of course, that could give pressure on the health service.
Updated
Welcome to our UK politics live blog.
New research suggesting that that those with the highly-infectious Omicron variant are at lower risk of being admitted to hospital than those with previous variants has been welcomed in the press.
“Ho, Ho, Hope,” says front page of the Sun over a picture of Boris Johnson giving a thumbs up sign.
The Times say the new studies offer support for Johnson’s decision to pause further restrictions in England. The Daily Mail goes as far as saying they “vindicate” the prime minister’s decision to “hold fire” on more restrictions.
The Telegraph reckons cabinet ministers say the research weakens the need for more restrictions. It quotes one saying: “If hospital numbers don’t grow, it could represent a killer blow against those in government who support more rules.”
But Prof Andrew Hayward, director of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Healthcare and a member of Nervtag, is more cautious about the research.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s he said:
It’s undeniably good news, but I think we’re definitely not out of the danger zone - I think perhaps we can downgrade this from a hurricane to a very severe storm ...
I think it does make the public health messaging tricky - I think some of the things that we need to remember is that if you’ve got a halving of severity but in the context of case numbers of Omicron doubling every two or three days, that doesn’t buy you much extra time, you know, maybe less than a week in terms of relieving the pressure on the NHS, if you like.
I think the other thing is to kind of explain (that) even if your personal risk is low, then you can still do a lot to protect the most vulnerable, the elderly, those with chronic diseases - you can do a lot to protect the NHS, and you can do a lot to protect services by being much more cautious in terms of the amount of close contact we have.
Prof Hayward said events such as “mass parties” that might take place on new year’s eve would “provide a big further boost” to the Omicron variant.
He added:
We still need to be cautious about Christmas - I think in many ways the best present you could provide an elderly relative this year is the negative lateral flow before you go, so we need to still think about protecting the vulnerable, we need to think about protecting the NHS and that will require some sacrifices.
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