Early evening summary
- Boris Johnson has admitted at a No 10 press conference that some hospitals already feel “at least temporally overwhelmed”. (See 6.15pm.) But he also said “I just think we have to get through it as best as we possibly can”, and he said there was a “good chance” no further restrictions would be introduced in England. (See 5.29pm.) This is from Shaun Lintern, the Sunday Times’ health editor, on his comments.
Boris Johnson just essentially admitted the NHS is going to be battered in the coming weeks but his view is we "just need to get through it".
— Shaun Lintern (@ShaunLintern) January 4, 2022
But not everyone will make it, some will die either from Covid or other mistakes and NHS staff will be broken, some permanently so.
- Keir Starmer has used a major speech to repeatedly stress Labour’s patriotism, and to put “security, prosperity and respect” at the heart of the party’s offer to voters. (See 1.59pm.)
- It is likely that as many as one in 10 people in parts of Northern Ireland had Covid-19 over the festive period, the region’s chief scientific adviser has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Ian Young said one in 20 tested positive in some areas, but with limits on PCR tests, it is likely the true figure was as high as one in 10 last week.
That’s all from me for today. But our Covid coverage continues on our global live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Johnson admits some hospitals already 'feel at least temporally overwhelmed'
The most striking answer in the press conference came when my colleague Rowena Mason asked Boris Johnson to define what the government meant when it said it would not allow the NHS to be overwhelmed, pointing out that many in the health service think that is already happening.
Johnson did not provide a definition. But he said some hospitals were already feeling “at least temporally overwhelmed”. We just have to get through it, he said.
He said:
The NHS is under huge pressure. I won’t provide a definition of what being overwhelmed would constitute because I think that different trusts and different places, at different moments, will feel at least temporally overwhelmed. And hospitals at the moment are sending out signals saying that they are feeling the pressure hugely. I understand that, and I thank them for the work that they are doing. It is absolutely fantastic.
There are not as many Covid patients in the NHS now as there were in the January peak, not be a long way, but sadly the numbers are likely to grow ...
I’ve just got to say to people, as I said yesterday, there will be a difficult period for our wonderful NHS for the next few weeks because of Omicron. I just think we have to get through it as best as we possibly can. We will give the NHS all the support that we can.
Updated
Vallance says Covid cases are still going up in the older age groups in London. So it is wrong to say it has peaked for everyone.
We do not know when the peak will occur, he says.
UPDATE: Vallence said:
So in terms of has it reached a peak in London? The answer is there is no evidence it has clearly reached a peak. And whilst it may be the case that in the younger age groups, this is flattening off or possibly beginning to come down, not least because they had such a big wave of infection, that is not true in the older age groups.
It’s still going up in the older age groups. So I think it will be very wrong, and Chris [Whitty] alluded to this, to suggest that there’s a peak which means it’s all over in London.
Updated
Johnson says cutting VAT on fuel bills would 'blunt instrument'
Q: Will you change the rules in the UK so that people have to have had a booster to count as fully vaccinated? Isn’t that unfair on people who were ill over Christmas who have to wait for a booster?
Johnson says that is a reasonable point. He says the government will make sure people have enough notice if the rules change.
Q: In May 2016 you wrote an article for the Sun saying Brexit would allow VAT on fuel to be cut. Yet that has not happened. Were you misleading people?
Johnson denies that. He says he finds it paradoxical that people campaigning for a VAT cut on fuel now (Labour) opposed Brexit. He says the journalist (the Sun political editor, Harry Cole) is right to point out that Brexit allows this option. But cutting VAT on fuel bills would be a “blunt instrument”, he says. It would benefit a lot of people who do not need help.
I’m not ruling out further measures and you are quite right to draw attention as I did in that piece to the potential that is contained in the freedom to regulate our own VAT. The argument is that it’s a bit of a blunt instrument. And the difficulty is that you end up also cutting fuel bills for a lot of people who perhaps don’t need the support in quite the direct way that we need to give it.
Updated
Q: What is your definition of the NHS being overwhelmed. Many people think it is already.
Johnson says he will not provide a definition. Some trusts may already feel temporarily overwhelmed, he says.
He pays tribute to the work people are doing.
But he repeats the point about fewer people now going into ICU.
He says “there will be a difficult period for our wonderful NHS in the next few weeks because of Omicron”, he says. He says we just have to get through it.
Q: Do you agree with the JCVI chair about four boosters not being justified now? (See 10.48am.)
Vallance says some parts of the immune system have a very long-lasting memory.
He says Andrew Pollard is right to say it would not be tenable to offer new jabs to everyone every three to six months.
But he says this might become like flu, where an annual vaccine is needed.
He says frequent vaccines are needed now because we are at the early stages of the disease. That will change over time, he says.
UPDATE: Vallance said:
I think Andrew Pollard is right - it would be a situation that is untenable to say that everyone is going to need to have another vaccine every three or six months.
That is not the long-term view of where this goes to. There may be some people who will require an additional dose, but longer term I would think that as this becomes a disease which is endemic ... it will be something like an annual vaccine like flu or of that order.
Updated
Whitty says he is saddened by people who have not been vaccinated. Most of them are not “anti-vaxxers with weird views”, he says. He says some people do not know whether it is necessary, some people are unsure whether it is safe, and some people worry about side effects.
He says medical professionals should provide assurance on these points.
Updated
Q: Your winter plan says the government will do whatever it takes to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. But isn’t it already overwhelmed, and you are not doing much to stop that?
Johnson says the numbers in hospital are high. There are 15,000 Covid patients in hospital. Some of them may have been admitted for something else.
He says he does not want to minimise what is happening.
He says it is “absolutely crazy” that there are 2m slots for booster jabs this week, but that most people in intensive care have not had a booster.
Q: Why do medical staff not get issued with FFP3 masks?
Johnson says he will take this point out. The government is doing all it can to ensure the NHS gets the PPE it needs.
Whitty says there is a technical argument about when these masks are needed. They are not fun to wear, he says. You should only wear them when necessary.
And he says there is a separate issue about whether they are available.
Q: You saw we can ride this out without further restrictions. But isn’t that at the cost of patient care?
Johnson says the NHS is under a lot of pressure. But he is confident we can get through it. The government is supporting the NHS in whatever what it can. But further restrictions are not cost-free. They are difficult to do, and have long-term consequences.
Omicron is resulting in fewer people in ICU, and fewer deaths, he says.
That is why they think the balanced approach is the right one.
Vallance says there are two things we don’t know which are key: when the peak will be, and what will happen when it “moves up the age range”. Until now, it is mostly younger people being infected.
He says he expects hospitalisation to increase.
Johnson says there is 'good chance' of getting through Omicron wave without need for further restrictions
Q: Are further restrictions now highly unlikely, or impossible?
Johnson says he cannot rule anything out. But he is trying to take a balanced approach. He wants people to behave carefully, and they are doing that.
“At the moment, it depends,” he says. It will depend on how quickly the virus peaks.
There is a “good chance of getting through the Omicron wave without the need for further restrictions, certainly without the need for a lockdown”.
Extracts from Johnson's opening statement
Here is a summary of the main points from Johnson’s opening statement.
- Johnson announced priority testing for critical workers. He said:
The government is acting to protect critical national services, keep supply chains open,and fortify our NHS to withstand the pressures ahead.
We’ve identified 100,000 critical workers, in areas from food processing to transport to our border force, and from 10 January we’ll be rolling out lateral flow testing for all these workers, available on every working day.
We’ll be sending testing kits directly to these organisations and liaising with them on the logistics.
- He said that “utmost caution” was required and that the next few weeks would be challenging.
Anyone who thinks our battle with Covid is over is, I’m afraid, profoundly wrong.
This is a moment for the utmost caution ...
We can keep our schools and our businesses open, and we can find a way to live with this virus.
But the weeks ahead are going to be challenging, both here in the UK and across the world.
There is no escaping the fact that some services will be disrupted by staff absences.
But he also said two factors made this wave different; Omicron was milder, he said and the boosters were offering protection.
Updated
Whitty says the latest figures show boosters provide 88% protection against being hospitalised.
Whitty says, because of the holiday period, the death figures are artificially low today and will be artificially high tomorrow. But overall deaths are low, he says.
Whitty is now presenting hospital figures.
And he shows the regional figures. Even in London they are still going up, he says.
He says the idea that this is a mild disease is wrong; people are still be hospitalised, he says.
Updated
Prof Sir Chris Whitty is now showing the slides. He starts with case numbers.
Johnson suggests people may soon need booster to count as fully vaccinated
Johnson says almost 9 million people have not had a booster.
And 90% of people in intensive care have not had a booster, he says.
There are 2m booster slots availbale this week, he says.
He says some countries already require boosters for people to be considered fully vaccinated. And he says in the coming weeks this will increasingly become the norm.
That sounds like a hint the UK government will adopt the policy too.
Updated
Johnson says tomorrow he will recommend to cabinet that they carry on with plan B.
He urges people to get a booster jab.
Every eligible adult was offered a jab before the end of Decembr - a whole month early, he says.
Johnson says the government will liaise with employers about the details for the priority testing.
Former teachers have been asked to help in schools, he says.
Johnson announces daily priority testing for 100,000 key workers
Johnson confirms that from 10 January 100,000 key workers will be prioritised for testing. They will be asked to do lateral flow tests every day.
Johnson opens press conference saying Covid situation requires 'utmost caution'
Boris Johnson opens the press conference saying more than 200,000 new Covid cases been recorded.
He says anyone who thinks this is over is “profoundly wrong”. He says we need to proceed with “utmost caution”.
Here are three interesting contributions on Keir Starmer’s speech earlier. (See 1.59pm.)
From John McDonnell, the former shadow chancellor
What struck me also about Keir Starmer’s speech today was that to show that Labour did indeed have policies he quoted three policies on employment rights, housing and climate change, all lifted from Labour pre 2020 but with no acknowledgement of who had actually developed them.
— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) January 4, 2022
From the journalist Jamie Maxwell
Starmer’s claim that Labour is a ‘national’ party not a ‘nationalist’ one echoes SNP rhetoric. In 2017, Sturgeon said she wanted to change the SNP’s name because nationalism was ‘problematic.’ https://t.co/WAANy2sZ9z
— Jamie Maxwell (@jamiedmaxwell) January 4, 2022
One of Starmer’s problems is that his version of anti-nationalist nationalism has harder edges than Sturgeon’s. He has to pander to royalists, Brexit voters, Trident enthusiasts, law and order Tories, politically incorrect columnists etc. She doesn’t.
— Jamie Maxwell (@jamiedmaxwell) January 4, 2022
From the blogger David Klemperer
Quite interesting to see that Starmer has added "Respect" his list of abstract nouns. Olaf Scholz made it a key theme of his successful campaign for the German chancellorship, so perhaps Starmer is taking inspiration from the SPD? https://t.co/bOsPauxNvl
— David Klemperer (@dmk1793) January 4, 2022
recent Starmer interventions by the abstract noun lists they were built around:
— David Klemperer (@dmk1793) January 4, 2022
- "security and opportunity" (fabian pamphlet)
- "work. care. equality. security" (conference speech)
- "security, prosperity, respect" (new year speech) https://t.co/5zowkpMQp9
Nick Timothy, who was co-chief of staff to Theresa May when she was prime minister, has criticised Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, over his reported plans to decriminalise some drug use. (See 11.57am.)
Starmer must be delighted that on the day he promised people “the basic right to feel safe in their own community” Sadiq Khan promised to decriminalise drugs in London.
— Nick Timothy (@NJ_Timothy) January 4, 2022
Timothy seems to have forgotten that in a book published in 2020 he himself argued that there was a case for legalising cannabis because it would “free the police to pursue other crimes and take a tougher approach to harder drugs”.
This is what a spokesman for the mayor said about Khan’s proposal.
This limited trial, which is still in development and has yet to be approved by City Hall, would involve three of London’s 32 boroughs and would only apply to 18 to 24-year-olds found in possession of a small amount of cannabis. It would not apply to any other drug.
The idea of the scheme, which is already used by other police forces across the country, would be to divert young people who are found with a small amount of cannabis away from the criminal justice system and instead provide help and support. This has been shown to reduce reoffending.
Reducing crime is the mayor’s top priority and he will continue to explore and implement the most effective solutions to help to divert young people away from drug use and crime for good.
Boris Johnson will require some key public sector workers to take daily lateral flow tests, ITV’s political editor, Robert Peston, reports.
The PM will attempt to lessen Omicron’s threat to essential services - power, food, nuclear, air traffic control - by requiring around 100,000 workers in specified industries to take daily Covid-19 tests. https://t.co/C9fW9i2STb
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 4, 2022
The government’s Covid dashboard shows 347 Covid patients were admitted to hospital in London on Sunday. That was up from the previous day (314), but lower than the total for Boxing Day, the previous Sunday, which was 374, and well below the most recent peak (511, on Wednesday last week).
As of today, the total number of Covid patients in London is 3,993. That is more than double the total for two weeks ago today (1,904).
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, told Sky News earlier that the government was not planning to cut the isolation period from seven days to five days, as the US has done. It has already come down from 10 days.
Asked about this, he said:
No, we’re not looking at changing that. Our decisions are based on the very latest evidence and we’re quite clear that where we are with seven days, but you need those two negative lateral protests in the final two days, is the right balanced, proportionate approach.
This is from Jo Beer, chief operating officer of the University hospitals Plymouth NHS trust, explaining why it has declared a critical incident. (See 3.21pm.)
This morning we communicated to our staff that we are operating in an internal critical incident. This is due to the high pressure on urgent care services and increasing demand for Covid-19 beds.
We currently have 99 Covid-19 positive patients across Derriford and our three community hospitals and just under 500 staff absent for Covid-19-related reasons.
We don’t want people to be alarmed by this. We took the decision to escalate to the highest level of internal incident because this allows us to be able to take additional steps to maintain safe services for our patients and help us cope with the growing pressures.
We are running at extremely high levels of occupancy and like a number of other hospitals across the country, we are seeing huge rises in demands for our services at the moment. Attendances in our emergency department are high; there are ongoing challenges in discharging patients who are well enough to leave hospital, and we are seeing an increase in staff sickness, all of which leads to longer waits than we would like for patients to be seen and admitted.
Updated
Johnson wrong to say crown stamps on pint glasses only possible after Brexit, says EU
The European Commission has rejected Boris Johnson’s claim that EU law prevented the British crown mark being embossed on pint glasses.
In his New Year message the prime minister lauded “restoring the crown stamp on the side of pint glasses” as one Brexit success notched up since the UK left the orbit of EU rules one year ago.
Officials at the commission said there was nothing that had prevented the crown stamp being on pint glasses, as long as the CE mark was also visible.
A spokesperson said: “EU law does not prevent markings from being placed on products, so long as it does not overlap or be confused with the CE mark.”
The letters CE appear on products across the European single market to signify conformity to EU safety and quality standards.
EU law on weights and measures became a cause célèbre for Eurosceptics in the early 2000s, when market traders rejected using metric scales to sell fruit. The UK obtained indefinite exemptions to retain miles, yards, feet and inches for traffic signs and distance measurements, and pints for the sale of beer and milk.
In his New Year statement the prime minister also suggested the UK’s speedy vaccine rollout was a consequence of Brexit, saying: “We’ve secured the fastest vaccine rollout anywhere in Europe last year by avoiding sluggish EU processes.”
EU medical procurement schemes are voluntary and the UK could have run an independent vaccine rollout as a member state.
Daily recorded Covid cases in UK pass 200,000 for first time, reaching 218,724
The UK has recorded 218,724 new Covid cases, the government has announced on its coronavirus dashboard. That is a new daily record, and more than 60,000 up on the total recorded yesterday - although yesterday’s figures will have been affected by the holiday weekend.
It is less than two weeks since the daily recorded total passed 100,000 for the first time.
The dashboard also shows the total number of cases over the past week is up 50.9% on the total for the previous week.
And 48 further deaths have been recorded.
Updated
On a visit to a green energy research centre in Birmingham after delivering his speech, Keir Starmer elaborated on why he favoured Tony Blair getting a knighthood but not Boris Johnson. (See 11.38am.) Starmer said:
Tony Blair changed the lives of millions of people for the better. He introduced a minimum wage, he set up Sure Start for young families that changed lives, put money into hospitals and into schools and of course was a key player in the peace agreement in Northern Ireland. So, I think there’s a world of difference between the two [men], in my book.
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has told Sky News that around six NHS trusts had declared critical incidents this morning. He gave a figure (unlike his ministerial colleague, Maggie Throup - see 10.10am) when he was asked if he could clear up what the total was. But he also said that this was the figure from this morning and that it might have changed because this was a “very fast-moving situation”.
University hospitals Plymouth NHS trust has also declared a critical incident, Shaun Lintern from the Sunday Times reports.
NEW: @UHP_NHS has today declared a critical incident. Message to staff warns of 15 ambulances waiting and no space in A&E and 475 Covid staff absences. Full details: pic.twitter.com/Sm6k1tpwD0
— Shaun Lintern (@ShaunLintern) January 4, 2022
Updated
The Great Western hospital in Swindon has declared a critical incident. These are from the trust’s chief executive, Kevin McNamara.
Following a tough few days @GWH_NHS we have this morning declared an Internal Critical Incident due to sustained high levels of demand (Covid & Non-Covid) & availability of beds. This is causing delays to pts accessing services for which I am very sorry.
— Kevin McNamara (@Kevin_McNamara1) January 4, 2022
We always knew that Jan would be a tough month for everyone & our modelling shows that it is likely to get tougher in the next few weeks.
— Kevin McNamara (@Kevin_McNamara1) January 4, 2022
Our teams are working hard to provide care to those that need it & we are of course working closely with partners seeking support.
Our Covid inpatient numbers are currently 67 pts confirmed or suspected - an 81% increase (from 37 on Christmas Eve).
— Kevin McNamara (@Kevin_McNamara1) January 4, 2022
Huge thanks to everyone focused on supporting patients. Please remember staff support is available in the weeks ahead should colleagues need it at any time.
Updated
Two more NHS trusts declare critical incidents over staff Covid absences
Two NHS trusts in Lancashire have declared critical incidents in their hospitals owing to staff absences, as the region’s health chief said officials were “bracing ourselves for a tsunami of Omicron cases”, my colleague Maya Wolfe-Robinson reports.
Scotland has recorded 17,259 new Covid cases. That is down on the number for yesterday (20,217), but the Scottish government says the holiday weekend has affected processing time. But the positivity rate - the proportion of tests coming back positive - has reached a new high for this wave of Covid, at 35.3%. Yesterday it was 34.9%.
There are also 1,147 people in hospital in Scotland with recently-confirmed Covid. Yesterday the figure was 1,031.
Updated
Starmer's 'contract with the British people' speech - summary and analysis
You can read the full text of Keir Starmer’s “contract with the British people” speech here. It was not one of those landmark speeches that people will be quoting for years to come, but it was relatively substantial in at least two respects: in further reinforcing the Labour remake, and putting even more distance between Starmer and the Corbyn era; and in setting a strategic framework (sound, but extremely woolly), for the election.
Here are the main points.
- Starmer repeatedly stressed Labour’s patriotism, and his love for Britain. In fact, he laid it on with a trowel. This is how he started the speech.
Today, I want to do something that leaders of the opposition rarely do. I want to celebrate the country we live in. It’s normally the job of the opposition to criticise and oppose. But it can make us sound pretty miserable. It can sound as if we don’t realise our own historical good fortune to have been born into a peaceful, creative liberal democracy.
Think of all that the British have to be proud of. The rule of law. Her Majesty the Queen. Universal public services. A creative heritage that is the envy of the world. And a thriving civil society on which we have relied so heavily during the pandemic.
And there was more later.
This is a remarkable nation with an extraordinary cultural heritage. British music, British fashion, British advertising, British acting. The diplomatic soft power wielded by the BBC, the world’s greatest broadcaster, which enjoys its centenary this year.
I think, too, of the scientists whose wisdom is guiding us through the pandemic. Our world-class industries in pharmaceuticals and financial services. Universities which are a magnet for the best students the world over. There is so much of which we can be proud.
I am personally thankful that I grew up in a country which had a national health service to care for my mum when she needed help. That gave me the opportunity to go to university and become a lawyer and fight for what is right.
This country has presented me with great opportunities. It’s a great place to live. But I don’t think you cease to be a patriot because you notice your country has flaws. On the contrary, the reason we in this party want to correct those flaws is precisely because we are patriotic.
This was an obvious attempt to counter what, particularly under Jeremy Corbyn, became a severe liability for Labour; the impression that it was led by people who were somehow anti-British. In many respects this charge has always been unfair; no one who truly disliked Britain would spend as much time as Corbyn did travelling all over it to speak and campaign. But Corbyn was perceived as unpatriotic, as one particularly memorable comment in a focus group suggested. Asked what they thought Corbyn would do if he had a free night to himself, the person replied: “A nice sit-down dinner with someone who doesn’t like Britain.”
- Starmer said he setting out a “contract with the British people”. This is a relatively common electoral strategy, last used by the Brexit party at the 2019 election. Starmer did not publish a contract as such, but he implied that such a document would one day materialise, and he gave two specific promises about its contents.
- He said that the contract would promise voters “security, prosperity and respect”. And he briefly defined all three terms, using the same language Labour used in its overnight press release. (See 9.54am.) The problem with these concepts is that they are all abstract, which means they are not especially memorable, and that the Conservative party would happily adopt them word for word (although Starmer would argue that only Labour policies would really offer “job security”). Of the three, respect is probably the most interesting. One of the reasons why Boris Johnson is popular with some people is that he is seen as non-judgemental; despite being a posh Etonian, people feel that if they met him, he would not patronise or condemn them. Starmer said that his dad felt undervalued because he worked in a factory and that that was why respect matters so much to him. But if Labour does an issue with respect, it is probably not so much about class as about culture (because it is seen as an urban, graduate party that is sometimes harshly judgemental about people who are neither).
- Starmer said the contract would also include a commitment to standards. In a passage clearly aimed at Johnson, he said:
I want to start the new year by making a pledge of straight leadership. Today I want to introduce my Contract with the British people. This will be a solemn agreement about what this country needs and how a good government should conduct itself.
I am well aware that just because the Tories lose the public’s trust it doesn’t mean Labour simply inherits it. Trust has to be earned. I am confident but not complacent about the task ahead.
So the very first clause in that contract, is a binding commitment about decency and standards in public life. Of course, these standards already exist. They are known as the Nolan principles: selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty, leadership.
So my solemn promise to you will always be to run a government that honours these principles.
He also attacked Johnson for not abiding by Covid rules.
- But Starmer also claimed that disregarding rules was a Conservative party problem, and not just a consequence of Johnson’s leadership. He said:
And let’s be clear – it’s the party that is the problem. This is not just about the flaws of one individual. It’s about the flaws of a whole style of government, the flaws of an ideology, of a political party that has been in power too long.
This sounded like Starmer anticipating Johnson’s replacement as PM before the election, and the attack line that Labour would need in those circumstances.
- Starmer highlighted a series of policies already announced that would offer “security, prosperity and respect”, including the establishment of crime prevention teams and police hubs in every community.
In many respects this will be seen as a Blarite speech. But you could also describe it as solid Kinnock. In an interview for Sebastian Payne’s superb book, Broken Heartlands: A Journey through Labour’s Lost England, Neil Kinnock said Labour should embrace security as a theme. “If Labour can manifest itself as the ‘security party’ in terms of personal security, employment, education, enterprise, national security, all of the many facets of security, then it’s capable of getting over the identity demarcations that produced the referendum result,” the former Labour leader told Payne.
Updated
No 10 defends environmental levies after some Tory MPs call for them to go
Some Conservative MPs want Boris Johnson to ease the cost of living crisis for voters by cutting VAT on fuel and by removing environmental levies from energy bills. Downing Street would not endorse either proposal, and sounded sceptical about both of them.
On cutting VAT on fuel, the PM’s spokesman said this would “not guarantee prices fall, given that price rises are driven by a number of factors which we are seeing played out worldwide”.
And on environmental levies, the spokesman said:
The exposure to volatile global gas prices underscores the importance of our plan to build a strong, homegrown renewable energy sector to further reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
It’s right that we invest in this and ultimately bring down the cost of renewable energy sources while supporting lower-income and vulnerable households with their energy bills.
Johnson to hold press conference at 5pm with Whitty and Vallance
Boris Johnson is going to hold a press conference at 5pm, No 10 has said. He will be joined by Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific adviser.
At the No 10 lobby briefing the PM’s spokesman also said it was “pleasing” that the number of patients requiring ventilation support has not risen as much as the number of Covid hospital cases has. He said:
We keep a very close eye on NHS capacity, that’s something we track very closely.
We know that admissions and occupancy are increasing significantly at the moment - we’re not seeing that same jump in beds requiring ventilation, which is pleasing, and almost certainly a function of both the nature of Omicron and our successful booster programme.
But we keep an extremely close eye on NHS capacity at all times.
The FT’s data specialist John Burn-Murdoch, who has consistently provided some of the best Covid commentary on Twitter, has posted a long thread about the current situation that is worth reading. It starts here.
NEW: first thread of 2022 is an Omicron situation update, starting with a detailed look at UK hospitals, before going international.
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) January 4, 2022
Let’s start with severity, and the most important chart:
Despite steep rises in cases and patients, the number on ventilators has barely risen. pic.twitter.com/p1mzD7DorK
Here is one of his most telling charts.
During the first two big waves, hospitals scaled down the amount of non-Covid treatment to create capacity.
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) January 4, 2022
This winter they’re trying to work through the resulting backlog of often very ill people waiting for treatment, and the result is far less headroom, far more stress. pic.twitter.com/cM2ajWuUgD
And here is one of his conclusions.
Overall the picture is clear:
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) January 4, 2022
While ICU is under less pressure from Covid this year, the rest of the hospital is facing more.
One critical care consultant told us they may end up having to redeploy staff from ICUs to other wards.
Not so much less pressure as different pressure pic.twitter.com/cXg9N4uBvW
Here is the full text of Keir Starmer’s speech this morning.
I will post a summary, with some analysis, shortly.
No 10 hints ministers would go ahead with fourth jabs for all, despite reservations from key adviser
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesman hinted that ministers would be keen to go ahead with further booster doses - despite the chair of the JCVI expressing doubt about whether the evidence now justifies their use for everyone. (See 10.48am.)
Asked what the government’s thinking was on administering a fourth jab, the spokesman said:
That is clinical advice and the JCVI [Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation] meet regularly to look at things and, in this instance, on waning of the booster dose.
There is some early evidence of that and they’ll be considering it, and we’ll await their advice before making a decision.
The spokesman also said ministers would also be taking clinical advice and keeping a “very close eye on” the “waning efficacy of second doses and the interplay of Omicron on that as well” as part of a review on whether to make a booster jab a requirement to access a Covid pass.
Updated
Starmer refuses to back London mayor's reported plan to decriminalise some drug use
Q: Do you support Sadiq Khan’s proposal to effectively decriminalise class B drugs in London?
(The Telegraph today reports that Khan plans to end the prosecution of young people caught with cannabis in the capital, in line with a proposal he made when running for re-election.)
Starmer says he is not in favour of changing the law on drugs or decriminalisation.
On the drugs legislation, I’ve said a number of times and I will say again: I’m not in favour of us changing the law or decriminalisation. I’m very clear about that.
I haven’t seen the detail of the proposals that you’ve reported on. As I understand it they are early measures, they are some sort of pilot.
Obviously we’ll look at those, but I’m very clear that we’re not in favour of changing the drugs laws.
Q: Wales still has what are effectively level 2 restrictions, where people can be fined for going to work. Do you support the Welsh Labour government in maintaining these?
Starmer says every nation in the UK has tried to get the balance right. Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, has led the country very well, Starmer says. He says that is one reason Labour did well in the elections in Wales last year. He says he knows how seriously Drakeford takes these measures.
And that’s it. The Q&A is over.
Updated
Starmer says the government should take stronger action against anti-vaxxers. It is unacceptable that they are allowed to protest outside schools, he says.
We need to deal with some of these anti-vaxxers. We have said to the government that they need to take stronger action in relation to anti-vaxxers.
It is simply unacceptable to have anti-vaxxers outside schools shouting at school children going into school to have their vaccination, or to see some of the activities we’ve seen.
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Q: You have mentioned Attlee, Wilson and Blair, but not Labour leaders like Jeremy Corbyn. Why is that? Do you want people to think you are distancing yourself from Corbyn?
Starmer says he mentioned those three because they all led Labour governments that made a difference. He wants to lead the fourth such government.
The whole purpose of Labour is to win power and change lives, he says.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
I don’t apologise for mentioning Attlee, Wilson and Blair. The thing that unites those three very different prime ministers is that they all won. They all won. They introduced Labour governments that changed Britain for the better and I want to be the fourth in that list writing the next chapter of our history.
So, I have always cited Attlee, Wilson and Blair precisely because they won. And unless the Labour Party is absolutely clear that our whole purpose as a party is to win power to govern to change the lives of millions of people, then we will be talking politics and not doing politics. So, no apology about that at all.
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Q: Do you agree that giving further booster jabs is unsustainable? (See 10.48am.)
Starmer says Labour would listen to the scientists and make a judgment call.
On the fourth jab, look, we will study all of the available evidence. We will talk to the scientists. We talk to the government scientists and we talk to our own scientists.
We will come to the appropriate judgment call when we have studied all of that evidence, as we have always tried to do.
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Q: What policies do you have that will appeal to voters?
Starmer insists Labour does have strong policies. He cites housing, saying Labour would apply a proper defintion of affordable housing, and stop investors buying homes as assets ahead of first-time buyers.
Labour also has a very strong policy on giving workers rights from day one, he says.
And it is also proposing to spend £28bn a year on a programme that would deliver green jobs.
Starmer says he does not think Boris Johnson has done enough to deserve a knighthood. But Tony Blair did to enough to deserve one, he says.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
No. I’m sorry, I do not think the prime minister has earned the right to have an honour. I do think Tony Blair has.
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Q: Martin Lewis has said some people will face a choice between heating and eating this year. What would Labour do on this?
Starmer says this will quickly be the major story of this winter and this spring. There are almost too many elements to it. He says the government is putting up tax just when other costs are going up. Labour would not have done that; it voted against the tax rise.
And Labour supports cutting VAT on fuel.
Q: Do you still support nationalising energy companies?
Starmer says he stands by the pledges he made in the Labour leadership contest (when he spoke of putting energy companies back into public ownership, which he claims is not the same as nationalisation).
Q: There are shortages in many areas, not just schools. What would Labour do about this? Do you favour reducing the isolation period from seven to five days?
Starmer says mass testing must be an important part of the way forward, so the infected can be separated from the uninfected. It is “simply unacceptable” for the government to say there are not enough tests.
(The government does not accept there is a shortage of tests per se. It does, though, admit there have been supply issues.)
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Starmer says he hopes further restrictions will not be needed
Keir Starmer has finished his speech. I will post a full summary soon.
Now he is taking questions from journalists.
Q: Is the government right to stick to plan B? Or are new restrictions needed?
Starmer says the current restrictions would not be in place if Labour had not voted for them. He says the PM could not pass them on his own.
He says he hopes further restrictions won’t be needed.
But more children need to be vaccinated.
There should be better ventilation in schools, he says. But the ventilators offered only cover one school in four. In other schools people have been told to open windows and put on coats. That is not acceptable, he says.
“We hope that we don’t need further restrictions”
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 4, 2022
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says “we need better leadership from the government” to get more children vaccinatedhttps://t.co/PCzJJYR54E pic.twitter.com/3bFem8D02T
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NHS Confederation chief suggests avoiding new restrictions is 'political virility symbolism' for Johnson
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, told Times Radio this morning that he feared ministers were engaged in a “politicised attempt” to play down the seriousness of the Omicron crisis. He said:
We should feel some hope and confidence about the medium term, that we hope we will gradually become more able to live with Covid as the prime minister has said, that when Omicron has gone through us that we make it to that stage and the NHS will recover.
On the other hand, we’ve got to recognise where we are now, that, in the next few weeks at least, things are very, very difficult and I think that one thing that people in our service find difficult is that it does seem as though there’s a kind of almost politicised attempt to suggest that things aren’t as difficult as they are ...
If you’re working in health service, you see the reality, and what you want politicians to be driven by is the data and what’s happening at the front line, and let’s not be in the business of ... getting away from the reality of this.
He also suggested that resisting further restrictions has become “political virility symbolism” for Boris Johnson. Asked if he wanted to see further restrictions in place, he said:
The government has to make this balance between public health on the one hand and pressures on the NHS on the other hand [and] people’s desire to socialise. That’s a very difficult judgement.
What I’m saying is that judgment needs to be driven by the data and what’s in the best interests of the country. It doesn’t, shouldn’t be driven by a kind of political virility symbolism, where the sooner we can be free, the better it is, regardless of the effect.
Let’s carry on being driven by the data and the reality is the data has been all over the place for the last few days.
It’s been pretty grim but, because of bank holidays and Christmas, we’re not really, I don’t think, going to know until the end of this week into next week what the patterns are showing us. So let’s wait and see what the data says and act in the public interest.
Taylor, of course, used to be head of Tony Blair’s policy unit in No 10. He and Chris Hopson, his opposite number at NHS Providers, another body representing health leaders, have become two of the most powerful voices on Covid policy. Both of them try to avoid sounding partisan, because they know to do so would undermine their credibility.
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Keir Starmer will be delivering his big speech at 11am. Labour has posted a link on Twitter to a live feed. I’ll write up the speech once I’ve read the full text, but I will be covering the Q&A afterwards as it happens.
Watch Live: Keir Starmer delivers Labour's vision for Britain’s future. https://t.co/8FMNQzBFM1
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) January 4, 2022
Judging by the pre-brief (see 9.54am), there will be a strong patriotic flavour to it, and, yes, there are union flags at the venue.
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This is from Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem health spokesperson, on Maggie Throup’s failure this morning to say how many NHS trusts have declared critical incidents. (See 10.10am.)
If ever proof was needed that the government is asleep at the wheel with this staff shortage crisis, the vaccine minister’s non-answers this morning just about sum it up.
Our hospitals are at breaking point and schools are spread thin, yet hapless ministers haven’t got a clue about the true extent of the problems in these settings.
It’s high time the government gets a grip on this. Families deserve reassurance that their children’s education won’t be disrupted and that loved ones can get the care they need, when they need it.
JCVI chair expresses doubts about further booster jabs being offered to everyone regularly
Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (but not chair of the JCVI’s Covid committee), has told the Daily Telegraph in an interview that further booster jabs should not be offered to everyone until there is more evidence to justify them. “We can’t vaccinate the planet every four to six months. It’s not sustainable or affordable,” he said.
Tuesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “ ‘We can’t jab the whole planet every six months’ “. #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/8G4OLoiimH
— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) January 3, 2022
Pollard, who is also head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told Sky News this morning:
It’s just not – from a global perspective – affordable, sustainable or deliverable to give fourth doses to everyone on the planet every six months. Remember that, today, less than 10% of people in low-income countries have even had their first dose, so the whole idea of regular fourth doses globally is just not sensible.
Asked about Pollard’s comments, Maggie Throup, the vaccines minister, told the Today programme this morning that the government would take advice from the JCVI but also that it would “look at it seriously and decide whether it’s appropriate for our population”.
Last summer Pollard was saying he was not convinced of the need for a third-jab booster programme for all adults – at a time when the government was planning just such a programme. Pollard thought vaccinating people in developing countries should take priority. A universal booster programme subsequently became critical to the government’s Covid strategy this winter.
Ministers have in the past sometimes been frustrated by the JCVI’s caution in relation to approving vaccine rollouts. In September last year a decision on vaccinating 12- to 15-year-olds was effectively taken out of the JCVI’s hands when it agreed that chief medical officers should have the final say.
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Starmer says Blair deserves his knighthood
Keir Starmer – or Sir Keir, as I suppose we should call him in this context – has commented on the row about Tony Blair’s knighthood, saying that the former PM deserves his honour. In an interview with ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Starmer rejected the suggestion that the issue was “thorny”. He told the programme:
I don’t think it’s thorny at all, I think he deserves the honour, obviously I respect the fact that people have different views.
I understand there are strong views on the Iraq war, there were back at the time and there still are, but that does not detract from the fact that Tony Blair was a very successful prime minister of this country and made a huge difference to the lives of millions of people in this country.
As Jessica Elgot reports, more than 500,000 people have signed an online petition saying they take a different view.
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Lancashire braced for 'tsunami of Omicron cases', health chief says
Morecambe Bay NHS trust, which operates three hospitals across north Lancashire and southern Cumbria, declared a Covid-19 critical incident last night following “relentless and sustained pressure” caused by “unprecedented staff absences”.
In an internal memo leaked to the Sunday Times, the trust’s chief executive, Aaron Cummins, said the move would lead to operations and appointments cancelled and staff redeployed which would allow the hospitals to “maintain safe services” for patients.
The trust, which operates three sites – Furness general hospital in Barrow, the Royal Lancaster infirmary and Westmorland general hospital in Kendal – joins at least six other trusts which are understood to have issued alerts over “internal critical incidents” in recent days, including United Lincolnshire hospitals NHS trust.
The note warned that staff absences had jumped from 7% to 10% in the last week – equating to around 240 NHS employees unable to work, with around 120 patients who were well enough to leave hospital but were unable to. “The impact of this is that seriously sick patients are waiting too long to be admitted and there are many times when we are operating on a ‘one in, one out basis’”, Cummins added.
Sakthi Karunanithi, the director of public health for Lancashire, said the region was “bracing ourselves for a tsunami of Omicron cases in Lancashire, including in older age groups”. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that “from a local point of view”, it appears the government were using science as “a side dish that we can pick and choose” and “turning a blind eye to signals of distress from the frontline that doesn’t often get presented in dashboards, like the staff absences”.
He went on:
Boosters on [their] own should not be the front and centre of the strategy. We need to stop pretending we can boost our way out of this pandemic and start seriously thinking about keeping the infection levels as low as we possibly can by truly engaging with communities and the public, seeing … what we’re seeing and supporting businesses and supporting local services to carry on doing their main jobs during this crisis.
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Health minister Maggie Throup refuses to say how many NHS trusts have declared critical incidents
As the Guardian reports in our overnight splash, multiple NHS trusts across England have declared “critical incidents” amid soaring staff absences caused by Covid-19.
Tuesday’s GUARDIAN: “ ‘Critical incidents’ at several NHS trusts as Covid staff shortages hit” #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/GcIPkDoi5y
— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) January 3, 2022
We report that more than half a dozen NHS trusts have issued critical incident alerts, but we do not give a firm figure in the report (because we did not have one).
You might have thought that the Department of Health and Social Care would have a number. But Maggie Throup, the vaccines minister who was doing an interview round this morning, refused to say how many trusts had declared critical incidents. She told Sky News:
It is fast moving and that’s why it would be wrong of me to actually say a number because quite shortly there could be another one or another trust could actually say ‘no, we’re back on track now and we’re okay’ and it’s a mechanism that’s been put in place in the past ...
The critical incidents are announced and then they can be very short-term ones and it’s saying to the other trusts around ‘can we have some extra help, can we have some mutual aid’.
Sometimes it’s just a matter of hours that the critical incident is in place for, other times it’s longer, but it’s actually reaching out to the wider NHS to say we have got a problem in this particular area and it’s sometimes quite geographical as well and for different reasons, it can be staff shortages, it could be other reasons.
Asked if the government had a handle on the situation, she replied:
It definitely does and obviously there’s meetings on a very, very – well, on a daily basis with the key people within NHS England and there’ll be an update later on that situation.
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Starmer to identify 'security, prosperity and respect' as key to Labour's election offer to Britain
Keir Starmer will deliver what is being billed as a major speech later, and in it he will identify “security, prosperity and respect” as the key to Labour’s election offer to Britain. In an overnight press release ahead of the speech, Labour said Starmer would set out “Labour’s ambition for a new Britain in which ‘you and your family get the security, prosperity and respect that they deserve’”.
These are abstract concepts, but this is how Labour in its news release explains them.
Security
Everyone has the basic right to feel safe in their own community.
We all need to know that the NHS is there for us when we need it.
And if we work hard we should also have a right to job security.
Prosperity
Everyone should have the opportunity to thrive.
To realise our ambitions and make a good life for ourselves.
To have the skills they need to prosper.
Respect
Respect is a less obvious political virtue than security and prosperity.
But it is every bit as important.
Everyone has the right to live in places we care for and to have our lives and ambitions taken seriously to be valued for who we are and what we do.
As Aubrey Allegretti reports in his preview of the speech, Starmer will also stress that Labour has to earn the trust of voters, and emphasise his pride in Britain, while arguing that identifying “flaws” with the country isn’t unpatriotic. Starmer will say:
I am personally thankful that I grew up in a country which had a national health service to care for my mum when she needed help, that gave me the opportunity to go to university and become a lawyer and fight for what is right.
This country has presented me with great opportunities. It’s a great place to live. But I don’t think you cease to be a patriot because you notice your country has flaws.
On the contrary, the reason we in this party want to correct those flaws is precisely because we are patriotic. I came into politics to make things happen not just to talk about them.
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Up to 15% of Omicron cases are reinfections, says Ferguson
And here is a full summary of the lines from Prof Neil Ferguson’s interview on the Today programme.
- Ferguson, a key government adviser on epidemic modelling, said that Omicron infections may have plateaued in London in the under-50s. (See 9.08am.) My colleague Matthew Weaver has more here.
- But he said hospital admissions may take longer to plateau than case numbers because older people were infected later. He explained:
This epidemic has spread so quickly [in the 18-50 age group] it hasn’t had time to really spread into the older age groups which are at much, much greater risk of severe outcomes and hospitalisation. So we may see a different pattern in hospitalisations. Hospitalisations are still generally going up across the country and we may see high levels for for some weeks.
- He said shortage of tests may have kept Covid case numbers lower than they otherwise would have been. He said:
[Case numbers are] not as useful as they used to be because there has been, frankly, demand management of cases by region, which means we’ve been running out of tests. And so in some regions, as we’ve heard over Christmas, numbers of tests have been limited. So almost certainly case numbers, true infection rates, have been much higher than [the published figures].
- He said up to 15% of Omicron cases were reinfections. He said the official headline case numbers did not include reinfections. But the scientists did see the reinfection numbers, he said.
The data we see includes reinfections. Between 10 and 15% of Omicron cases are reinfections, so you have to just interpret the numbers through that lens.
- He said school reopening was likely to lead to an increase in Omicron infections in children. He explained:
The Delta infections in the last few months have been really driven by school-age children and by the older age groups in the population.
Omicron slipped in the middle in 18 to 45-year-olds really but it didn’t have much time to get into schoolchildren before schools shut and we expect to now see quite high infection levels, of mild infection I should emphasise, in school-age children.
Updated
Omicron may have plateaued amongst under-50s in London, says Prof Neil Ferguson
Good morning. And happy new year to everyone.
Or happy new year (medium confidence), as they might put it in a Sage report, using the standard formula scientists apply to show how confident they are about the judgments they make. (It’s not a habit that lobby correspondents have adopted, although perhaps we should.)
Medium confidence is probably also good way of summing up Prof Neil Ferguson’s overall mood when he was interviewed on the Today programme this morning. Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose modelling is closely followed by government, said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the Omicron pandemic may have plateaued in London (where cases have been highest) amongst the under-50s. He told the programme:
I think I’m cautiously optimistic that infection rates in London in that key 18-50 age group, which has been driving the Omicron epidemic, may possibly have plateaued, it’s too early to say whether they’re going down yet.
And this is what he said when he was asked whether he thought, overall, the effect of Omicron was as bad as originally feared, or whether it was better. He replied:
I think the good news here is it is certainly less severe. We think, if you’ve never been infected before, never had a vaccine, [there is] about a one third drop in the risk of just any hospital admission, probably a two thirds drop in the risk of dying from Omicron. So [it is] substantially less severe. And that has helped us undoubtedly. We would be seeing much higher infection case numbers in hospital otherwise.
And vaccines, as we always expected they would, are holding up against severe outcomes well.
Well that doesn’t mean it’s not going to be, as the prime minister said, a difficult few weeks for the NHS.
This may not sound definitive, but Ferguson sounded noticeably more confident today about Omicron being less severe than Delta than he was two weeks ago, when Imperial College published early research on this topic.
I will post more from his interview shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
11am: Keir Starmer delivers his speech in Birmingham. As Aubrey Allegretti reports, Starmer will use it to launch his plan to maintain the momentum of Labour’s poll lead in the runup to the next election.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Today I will be focusing mostly on UK Covid developments and on Starmer’s speech. For wider Covid coverage, do read our global live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com
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