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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK Covid news: Nicola Sturgeon eases some restrictions on outdoor mixing in Scotland – as it happened

Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish parliament this afternoon.
Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish parliament on Tuesday. Photograph: Scottish parliament

Afternoon summary

  • George Osborne, the former Conservative chancellor, has criticised the main revenue-raising measure in last week’s budget - the corporation tax increase. Speaking at an Institute for Government online event, Osborne said:

I don’t want to criticise Rishi Sunak - he is doing a pretty good job in difficult circumstances.

But I would say the idea you can increase Britain’s business tax by 25% and there will be no consequence - I don’t think even he would claim that either - is a mistake.

Tax increases have consequences and we will wait to see - if this tax increase does indeed go ahead - what impact it will have.

I think you have got to be careful as a country what signals you are sending around the world to a world that certainly doesn’t have much time to look into the UK tax code.

Osborne said he was worried if the “basic message” to come from the budget was that the UK was moving to a “very high rate of corporation tax”. He explained:

You’re just sending a message around the world that Britain is not a particularly enterprising or pro-business place at the very moment when you want to be encouraging that in a recovery.

That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.

A vote of no confidence in Scotland’s deputy first minister, John Swinney, has been scheduled for tomorrow, but already looks set to fall as the Scottish Greens say they will not support it, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Scottish Tories tabled the motion two weeks ago as a threat to the position of Swinney. They hoped he would release legal advice given to the Scottish government before it decided to concede the judicial review brought by Alex Salmond after its botched handling of complaints against him.

MSPs twice voted to compel the Scottish government to release the documents.

Swinney released some of the legal advice, but not to the satisfaction of the Scottish Tories, whose leader Douglas Ross decided to press on with his bid to oust the deputy first minister.

The vote has been scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, but within minutes of the announcement of its going ahead, the Scottish Greens destroyed any hopes of removing Swinney, describing the vote as “opportunistic political theatre”.

These are from the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group.

The proportion of pupils in England being taught on-site last week rose to nearly a fifth, PA Media reports. PA says:

Overall, 19% of state school pupils were in class on 4 March, up from 18% on 25 February, according to figures from the Department for Education.

The rise came in the week before all pupils were allowed to return to school.

Some 28% of primary school pupils were on-site last week, compared with 27% in the previous week.

Overall, 6% of secondary school students were in class last week - the same proportion as on 25 February.

Updated

A student taking a lateral flow test at Weaverham high school in Cheshire today.
A student taking a lateral flow test at Weaverham high school in Cheshire today.
 Photograph: Jason Cairnduff/Reuters

Updated

The latest UK Covid statistics are out, and on the government’s dashboard. Here are the key figures.

  • The UK has recorded 231 further deaths. That is well up on yesterday’s figure (65), but numbers are always suppressed after a weekend because reporting gets delayed for administrative reasons. Today’s today is much lower than the total for last Tuesday (343). And the total number of deaths over the last week is down 33.2% on the previous seven days.
  • The UK has recorded 5,766 new cases. Week on week, cases are down 24.5%.
  • 215,273 people in the UK had their first dose of a vaccine yesterday, and 38,788 people had their second dose.
Dashboard figures
Dashboard figures. Photograph: Gov.UK

Updated

Yesterday Downing Street said that, if a pupil tests positive with a lateral flow test (LFT) conducted at home, but subsequently tests negative with a (more accurate, and laboratory-processed) PCR tests, they will be able to end self-isolation and return to school.

But if the LFT is conducted at school, then the pupil has to carry on self-isolating even if a subsequent PCR tests comes out negative. In these circumstances, a negative PCR test cannot trump or reverse a positive LFT test.

Different rules apply because school counts as a “controlled environment”, where supposedly the LFTs will be more accurate because they are being conducted under supervision.

Rachel Clarke, the doctor and author, has described this as “madness”.

Updated

In the Commons MPs are on the final day of the budget debate, and Theresa May, the former Conservative prime minister, has used her speech to criticise the government for not doing more to encourage R&D (research and development). She said:

If we want an innovation economy, what we need to do is to invest in and support investment in areas which encourage growth and innovation, and that means R&D.

Now we are going to see another consultation on R&D tax credits, I think that’s the third consultation in three years. I have to say to [Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, who opened today’s debate] stop consulting, just get on and do something - extend the definition of R&D expenditure, increase the rate, but act - what we need is investment in innovation, not in chief executive’s jacuzzis.

May, who represents Maidenhead, which is near Heathrow, also said she continued “to fail to understand why the Treasury, and the Business Department I fear as well, seem institutionally incapable of understanding the significance of the aviation sector for jobs and for our economy.”

In his evidence to the Commons science committee Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said that the way test and trace was able to track down someone with the P1 Brazilian variant, even when a form had gone missing, was impressive. (See 11.35am.)

In the comments a reader points out that the key breakthrough came when the person involved called in to NHS 111 themselves. Dr Susan Hopkins from Public Health England revealed this at a press conference at the end of last week.

From Edouard Mathieu from the Our World in Data website

From Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister

During her statement to Holyrood, Nicola Sturgeon also revealed that a possible – although still unconfirmed – further case of the P1 variant in Scotland has now been identified. She said it involved an individual who travelled to Scotland from Rio de Janeiro, via Paris, arriving on 19 February, that the individual followed the procedures for managed self-isolation, and there was currently no reason to believe that the case presents any risk to the wider community.

Sturgeon also said that invitations to vaccination appointments would start to be issued this week for people aged 50 to 59, with vaccinations for those aged between 55 and 59 starting in the week beginning 15 March, and with those aged 50 to 54 starting to receive their injections the week after that.

Updated

Sturgeon announces changes to rules on outdoor mixing in Scotland

Nicola Sturgeon has announced some limited changes to outdoor mixing in Scotland, in particular for teenagers, as she told the public that “we can’t afford to take foot off the brake too soon” if Scotland is to enjoy a “much more normal summer”.

From Friday, up to four adults from up to two households will be able to meet outdoors, and this will be allowed for meetings for social and recreational purposes, as well as exercise.

For 12- to 17-year-olds, outdoor meetings will also be limited to a maximum of four people, but the two-household limit won’t apply, which means four friends from four different families will be able to get together in a public outside space or private garden.

From Friday, outdoor non-contact sports and organised group exercise will be permitted for all adults, in groups of up to 15 people, and there will also be flexibility around the travel rules for young people – so that children are not prevented from taking part in sport, if for example they belong to a club which is a bit outside their local authority area.

Sturgeon said that, with almost 40% of Scottish adult population now having received the first dose of the vaccine, studies showed this was reducing transmission rates as well as illness and death. She said her government had “increasing confidence” that as more and more people acquire some protection through vaccination she would be able to ease restrictions without the R number going above 1 again.

Sturgeon prefaced her announcements by branding the scenes of Rangers fans celebrating in crowds across Glasgow at the weekend in breach of current restrictions as “disgraceful and selfish”. She said that the changes were only possible “because of the hard sacrifices that the majority of people across the country continue to make each and every day”.

She told MSPs:

Let me at the outset acknowledge, and be clear that I share, the anger and despair that the vast majority of people – including, I am sure, the majority of football fans – felt at the weekend towards crowds of supporters flagrantly breaching rules that the rest of us are following every day at great personal cost.

Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish parliament this afternoon
Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish parliament this afternoon. Photograph: Scottish parliament

Updated

Northern Ireland has recorded two further coronavirus deaths and 240 new cases.

A week ago today there were also two deaths, but 149 new cases.

This chart, from the dashboard for the health department in Northern Ireland, shows how the fall in deaths in Northern Ireland has started to plateau. The green line shows the seven-day rolling average.

Covid deaths in Northern Ireland
Covid deaths in Northern Ireland. Photograph: Department of Health, NI

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has just started delivering a statement on Covid to the Scottish parliament. It will cover how some restrictions on outdoor meeting could be eased.

But, as usual, Sturgeon started with the latest figures.

She said that there had been 466 more positive cases, and that 3.3% of tests carried out were positive. A week ago today there were 542 new cases, and a positivity rate of 4.4%.

She said there were 614 Covid patients in hospital. A week ago the number was 784.

And she said there had been 19 further deaths. A week ago today the figure was 33.

Updated

Osborne criticises Sunak's budget proposal to raise corporation tax

Last week’s budget was seen as a repudiation of the economic policies adopted by George Osborne when he was chancellor. Boris Johnson wants to avoid a return to austerity; insofar as measures are being taken to control borrowing the focus is on tax rises rather than cuts (with Osborne it was the opposite), and Rishi Sunak’s main tax-raising measure was a huge hike in corporation tax which would undo much of what Osborne did to bring it down.

The day after delivering his budget, Sunak also said that he did not believe that cutting the corporation tax rate had increased revenue or encouraged business investment – despite Osborne claiming otherwise at the time.

Today Osborne has been speaking at an Institute for Government event, and he has hit back. These are from Tom Newton Dunn from Times Radio, the BBC’s Faisal Islam and the Telegraph’s Harry Yorke.

George Osborne.
George Osborne. Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Updated

NHS England has recorded a further 164 coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.

A week ago today the equivalent figure was 279 deaths.

Updated

In the Commons Rachel Reeves, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, used an urgent question to claim that Boris Johnson misled MPs last month when he claimed that government PPE contracts had all been properly published. She said:

The Good Law Project took the government to court and on February 19, the high court ruled that the government had acted unlawfully, saying and I quote, ‘the public were entitled to see who this money was going to and what it was being spent on and how the contracts were awarded’.

Three days later, on February 22 in this house, the prime minister said and I quote again, ‘the contracts are there on the record for everybody to see’. But they’re not. A judge confirmed through a court order last Friday that 100 contracts are still to be published.

So will [the health minister Edward Argar] now take this opportunity to apologise for that statement and to put the record straight? And will the government now finally agree to publish all 100 outstanding contracts by the end of this week?

Argar, who was responding on behalf of the government, claimed that Johnson had not misled MPs, because his comment about the contracts being available referred to just those covered by the court case. He said:

[The prime minister] was responding to a question around the failure to publish the details of specific contracts which are subject to judicial reviews. At the time of his statement, the details for all of these contracts under scrutiny, I’m advised, were published.

Updated

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister’s spokesman gave a summary of what Boris Johnson told cabinet this morning about school reopening in England this week. Johnson said the move was “an important first step on the road towards freedom”, but that it was important for people to continuing following the official advice to stay at home.

At cabinet there were also updates from Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, on plans to develop low-carbon technologies, and from Liz Truss, the minister for equalities, on how gender equality will be “at the heart” of the UK’s G7 presidency.

The spokesman also said that Johnson had watched last night’s broadcast of the Duchess of Sussex’s interview with Oprah Winfrey. But despite getting repeated questions on the topic, the spokesman refused to say anything about Johnson’s thoughts on the programme, and instead the spokesman just kept referring back to what the PM said at his press conference last night about being determined not to comment on royal matters.

Updated

Simon Stevens' evidence to Commons health committee - Summary

Sir Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, was giving evidence to the Commons health committee this morning at the same time as Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were at the science committee. I have already posted some lines from Stevens, but here is a fuller round-up, based on quotes from PA Media.

  • Stevens said that NHS staff in England were expecting to receive more than just 1% as a pay rise this year because two years ago the government was budgeting for a 2.1% increase. (See 10.22am and 11.02am.) Asked whether NHS staff should receive a one-off bonus, as has been paid in Scotland, Stevens said there should be “proper recognition” of everything endured by NHS staff over the the past year. But he said any decision should be taken “in the context of the overall judgments that the government will make on NHS pay in the round”.
  • He said there was an “urgent” need for the government to agree extra funding to help the NHS cover the costs of Covid from April. (See 10.26am.)
  • He said some of the rules created by previous health legislation were “farcical”. He said:

Our administrative costs are low but what we are suggesting is that some of the requirements that are placed on the health service actually still, nevertheless, generate wasted administrative effort and it would be good to dispense with that legally-induced bureaucracy, in particular the requirement to competitively tender many aspects of care ...

We frankly went through the farcical situation of having to put out OJEU [Official Journal of the European Union] procurement documents for the nation’s specialist cancer services, cardiovascular tertiary services and so forth.

He was speaking in support of the health white paper, which will reverse some of the procurement rules created by the coalition’s 2012 Health Act.

  • He said digital healthcare would be “a bigger part of what healthcare looks like in the future”.
  • He said the plans in the health white paper should not have to wait until plans for the reform of adult social care have been finalised.
  • He called for a more flexible model for adult social care. He said:

Frankly what I don’t think anybody wants is just more of the same in social care. We need more adult social care but not more of the same.

We need more flexibility in care models, in other words, rather than people automatically having to move house when their needs accelerate, the ability for supported housing, flexibility to assign care to where people are currently living, as well as resilience in the care home sector.

  • He said a vaccination hub was operation at Poet’s Corner in Westminster Abbey.
Sir Simon Stevens giving evidence to the Commons health committee.
Sir Simon Stevens giving evidence to the Commons health committee. Photograph: House of Commons/PA

Public Health Wales has recorded three further coronavirus deaths, and 166 new cases.

A week ago today the equivalent figures were one death and 170 new cases.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has sharply upgraded its forecasts for global growth this year as a result of successful vaccine programmes and fresh stimulus packages to combat Covid-19, my colleague Larry Elliott reports.

And the OECD said the success of Britain’s vaccine programme and the fresh support for jobs and businesses provided by Rishi Sunak in the budget meant it was revising up its forecast for UK growth from 4.2% to 5.1% this year, and from 4.1% to 4.7% in 2022.

The full story is here.

Q: What is the risk of not being able to ease measures according to the dates in the roadmap?

Vallance says he does not know. But at the moment the situation is looking good, he says.

Q: So do you expect the dates in the roadmap will be met?

Vallance says he thinks the dates will reflect when the scientists will be able to give the politicians the data they can use to take these decisions.

And that’s it. The hearing is over.

Whitty says he thinks that, when the PM talks about measures being “irreversible”, he is not claiming certainty about what will happen in the next five years.

There are some uncertainties ahead, he says. He says “we will just have to deal with them as they come”.

Updated

Q: What restrictions might be needed after 21 June?

Vallance says he does not know. It depends where we are in the epidemic, he says.

But some measures might have to stay, particularly for the winter. He says hand hygiene and test and trace should be retained. And some mask wearing might be necessary.

Q: What about social distancing?

Vallance says he thinks people might retain some “innate social distancing” anyway, by choice.

Q: Will measures have to be reintroduced?

Vallance says that will depend on the course of the pandemic, and what happens with new variants. But he thinks it is unlikely a new variant will emerge that will be completely immune from vaccines.

Q: Has surge testing been an effective programme?

Whitty says that aim of this is to find people at high risk of passing on the infection.

There have been advantages and disadvantages, he says.

He says the programme has identified people who might pose a risk. But he says take-up has been lower in places where people cannot afford to self-isolate.

He says most of these programmes have provided a significant, additional benefit.

Graham Stringer (Lab) goes next.

Q: Will the need to give second doses lead to fewer people getting first doses?

Whitty says the decision to delay second doses was sensible.

But over one million people have had a second dose now, and those number are set to rise sharply.

He says there should be enough vaccine supply to ensure that the rollout to people getting a first dose can continue as well. We expect to be able to do both, he says. But he concedes that the pace of first dose vaccinations might not be as fast as before.

Whitty says we are getting close to the point where almost one million people in the UK have taken part in medical research, like trials or observational studies.

He says this has allowed doctors to “really accelerate” their knowledge of how to treat the disease.

He says the UK’s record has been particularly good in this respect. The knowledge gained has been an offering to the whole of the world, he says.

Deaths of over-80s in England and Wales down 79% over five weeks, ONS says

Weekly deaths involving coronavirus in the over-80s in England and Wales have fallen 79% since a peak five weeks ago, PA Media reports. PA says:

There were 1,118 Covid-19 deaths in adults aged 80 and over which took place in the week ending February 26, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

This is a fall of more than three-quarters since the week ending January 22, when 5,326 deaths involving coronavirus took place in this age group.

Deaths in adults aged 75-79 have fallen 79% over the same period, while for 70-74-year-olds the fall was 76%.

Some deaths in the latest week may not yet have been fully recorded.

Updated

Greg Clark is asking the questions again.

Q: How important has test and trace been in terms of unlocking?

Vallance says the modelling has assume that baseline measures will be effective as restrictions are eased. One of those is test and trace.

Q: Test, trace and isolate claims its impact on R is to reduce it by up to 0.8. Have you assessed that?

Vallance says Sage has published several things on this, but he does not think it has looked that test and trace’s own assessment of its impact.

He says the impact of test and trace depends on how high the number of cases is. When cases are high, it is of less use, he says.

Q: What’s your assessment of the tracing system?

Vallance says the way the system was able to track someone down with a new variant, even when a form was lost, was impressive.

Dawn Butler (Lab) goes next. She asks about “zero Covid”, a proposed coronavirus strategy particularly championed by leftwing MPs.

Q: “‘Zero Covid” is not about getting Covid cases down to zero. It is about clear policy, like clear messaging.

Whitty says, as a scientist, he works on the basis that zero means zero. He does not think getting cases to zero is feasible.

But he says he agrees with Butler about the importance of clear messaging.

Q: Would money spent on test and trace be better spent elsewhere?

Whitty says resource questions are a matter for ministers.

But test and trace can achieve three things, he says.

First, it helps with information gathering. He says the UK now has an incredibly sophisticated system for gathering data. That is used for making policy.

Second, testing can identify people who are asymptomatic but infectious. That is important.

And, third, test and trace does contact tracing. That will become more important as numbers come down.

Updated

Carol Monaghan (SNP) is asking questions now.

Q: Would you be happy with international travel opening up from 17 May?

Vallance says that is a political decision. He says Sage has not made a specific recommendation on this. But at some point travel will have to reopen, he says.

When pushed, he says it will be important to measure the impact of decisions as they are taken.

Whitty says he does not think getting to Covid cases to zero is a realistic option. But he does think it would be possible to get cases to a very low level.

Whitty says he does not think it will be possible to get deaths down to zero.

So that matter of what level of deaths would be acceptable is a political decision, he says.

Vallance says the rule of six is “not something that has some scientific absolutism” behind it. It is a policy decision, he says, based on the desire to limit mixing.

In the science committee Greg Clark is asking the questions.

Q: Is it effective to have a red list of countries with dangerous variants, when they could come from anywhere?

Vallance says variants can arise anywhere.

He says border controls are most effective when case rates are low.

And so, if one country has, say, 80% of its cases involving a particular variant, it would make sense to take action, he says.

But he says he does not think it is possible to stop variants coming in.

There is some logic in thinking about where you have got the highest prevalence of either the virus overall or a particular variant.

But I don’t think we should dream that you can stop these things coming in or, indeed, evolving within domestic virus transmission.

And he says some countries do not do enough genomic sequencing to know what variants are in circulation.

Updated

I’ve beefed up some of the earlier posts in the blog with fuller, direct quotes from what was said at the science committee hearing. You may need to refresh the page to get those updates to appear.

NHS pay originally meant to be rising by 2.1% this year, not 1%, MPs told

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, says Sir Simon Stevens’ comment to the health committee about how government plans in 2019 envisaged NHS staff getting a 2.1% pay rise this year (see 10.22am) shows that the government has broken a promise. In a statement he said:

The head of the NHS has confirmed what we already knew: the Conservatives have broken their promise to the NHS and are cutting nurses’ pay.

The Labour press notice includes a further quote from what Stevens told the committee. He said:

We published the long-term plan, and then shortly thereafter in 2019, we laid out the underpinning financial assumptions.

Obviously, that was approaching two years ago, so things have changed. But as you say, at the time, the working assumption was that there would be available 2.1% for the costs of the agenda for change pay group in 2022, together with the overhang from the 2021 elements of the multi-year agenda for change pay deals.

Updated

Q: Should students be allowed back for the summer term?

Whitty says this is a decision for ministers.

He says the issues are not the same as with schools. The disadvantages from missing university varies, and the risk varies according to whether or not people are doing a practical course.

Q: What is the risk to students?

Whitty says the risk to students is low. The main concern is about the spread within the community.

In the autumn there was a big surge in cases. But, because of work done by universities, and the steps taken by students, rates came right down.

Greg Clark, the committee chair, asks what should happen if a child at school tests positive with a lateral flow test, but then tests negative with a PCR test.

Whitty says the Department for Education has a policy on this. He says he cannot recall the precise detail, and so refers the committee to the answer.

(The position was clarified by No 10 yesterday.)

Zarah Sultana (Lab) is asking questions now.

Q: The government has ignored Sage advice on matters like Eat Out to Help Out. Do you feel it understands the importance of scientific advice.

Vallance says he government listens to scientific advice all the time.

But government has to take into account other factors, he says.

He says it’s Sage’s job to ensure that the scientific position is understood. He says Sage has done that. But the decision making process is more complex.

Whitty says what matters is to have “scientifically informed” decision making.

Vallance rejects claim PM ignored Sage recommendation for phased school reopening

Q: So did Sage say school reopening in England should be phased?

Vallance says Sage set out what might happen under both scenarios. It did not recommend a preferred option.

Updated

Earlier Vallance gave some figures on the impact school reopening would have on increased transmission, but it was not clear whether he said the rate might increase by between 10% and 15% or between 10% and 50%. (See 9.57am.) The audio from the committee is not great, and 15 and 50 can sound similar.

The Sage minutes make it clear he said 50%. The document said:

SPI-M’s consensus view remains that the opening of primary and secondary schools is likely to increase effective R by a factor of 1.1 to 1.5 (10% to 50%).

Back in the science committee Rebecca Long-Bailey (Lab) asks about school reopening. Quoting from these Sage minutes (pdf), she asks if the government was advised to do a phased opening of schools. The document says:

A phased reopening would allow the effects to be assessed which would be particularly valuable if schools were one of the first things to reopen, as there will be more uncertainties in the early stages of releasing measures (e.g. around the impact of vaccines).

Vallance says Sage looked at the issues around reopening schools.

It is quite difficult to know what the impact will be, he says.

But in the end a phased reopening, and reopening all at once, would end up having the same effect, he says.

In either case you end up in the same place, you end up over a different timescale to get there and, again, you would need to allow enough time in any staggered opening to be able to measure what you do as you go along.

Updated

Health service expects extra funding to help it cope with Covid, says NHS England boss

At the health committee Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, also said he expected hospitals to get extra funding to cover Covid costs from April. He said:

The expectation is that the NHS will receive additional funding to cover those unavoidable Covid costs certainly into the first half of the [financial] year.

There’s an urgent need now to give that funding certainty to hospitals, to local frontline services, and the beginning of the financial year is hoving into view.

We do expect that that would be resolved very shortly.

At a separate committee hearing, Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, told the health committee that plans set out in 2019 had budgeted for NHS pay to increase by 2.1% this year.

Asked about the government proposal for staff to get a 1% pay increase, he said:

You would expect the head of the health service to want to see properly rewarded NHS staff, particularly given everything that the service has been through over the course of the last year.

And so I think the right way to resolve this is the path the government has actually set out which is to ask the independent pay review bodies to look at all of the evidence... and be able to independently make a fair recommendation so that NHS staff get the pay and reward that they deserve.

Vallance says, as you start to open up, the evidence about increased transmission does not emerge immediately.

And he says vaccines will have a bigger impact on hospitalisations than on transmission.

He says it will take between three to four weeks to get a “real handle” on what is happening.

If you truncate that, you are essentially flying blind.

You might feel ‘oh, I can smell it going in a certain direction, it looks like this’, but you really want to know.

Patrick Vallance giving evidence to the science committee
Patrick Vallance giving evidence to the science committee Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

Whitty says it would be a mistake to “concertina” the five-week breaks between easing different measures.

He says you need four weeks to measure the impact of measures, and another week to allow people to prepare for the next steps.

The 12 April and 17 May blocks are both very significant, he says. He says the 17 May one will allow a lot of indoor activities for the first time.

Updated

Greg Clark is asking the questions now.

Q: If we got to the end of April, and all things like cases, deaths and hospitalisations were going well, would we still have to wait until 21 June for further easing?

Whitty says the dates are determined by the moment when you can be sure of the data.

He says if you look around the world, it is not full of leaders wishing they had eased lockdown more quickly.

If you look at the history of this all around the world, the history of this is not full of countries and individual leaders wishing they had done more, faster.

It’s full of leaders who wished they had acted quicker and then been more careful as they take things off.

He says ministers are trying to take this steadily. They are taking “big blocks of risk” at the same time.

Updated

Whitty is now reading out a list of measure that are due to happen on 12 April (or not before 12 April, to use the official wording in the roadmap, which is often now overlooked).

He says there are a wide set of measures planned for that date.

What would you want to add, he asks. He is responding to a question about whether lockdown easing could be speeded up.

Whitty says Covid situation could 'turn bad very fast' if lockdown easing rushed

Whitty says a lot of people think this is all over.

But they should look at what is happening in continental Europe, where a lot of countries are seeing Covid rates going up.

He says:

People should remember that things can turn bad very fast if you don’t keep a very close eye on what’s going on. If you open up too fast, a lot more people die.

And he says:

I think a lot of people may think that this is all over.

I would encourage them to look at what is happening in continental Europe at the moment where a lot of countries are going back into rates going up and having to close things down again having not been in that situation before.

I think it’s very easy to forget quite how quickly things can turn bad if you don’t keep a very, very close eye on it ...

If you’re thinking about a surge in transmission, remember that the great majority of those who will drive a surge in transmission are not yet vaccinated and will not be vaccinated by Easter.

So, I think the idea that that is the sort of get out of jail card in terms of a surge of transmission, I think, is to misremember where in the age spectrum the drive of transmission is, and it’s in younger adults, not in those who have so far been vaccinated, by and large.

Updated

Whitty says it is important to stress that deaths will not go away. That is not “realistic”, and it would be “completely wrong” to let the public think that, he says.

It is really important that we do not give any impression that what we are expecting is this just goes away and there is no further deaths.

That is not realistic and I think to pretend that to the British public would be completely wrong.

But he says there will be many fewer deaths than before, because of the impact of the vaccines.

He says the effectiveness of vaccines has been at the higher end of what was expected.

Updated

Graham Stringer says he finds it hard to see how Sage has calculated that another 30,000 people could die in the next surge.

That figure comes from this paper (pdf).

Whitty says he thinks focusing on particular numbers is unhelpful.

Chris Whitty giving evidence to the science committee
Chris Whitty giving evidence to the science committee Photograph: Parliament TV

Whitty says easing restrictions will lead to 'further surge' and more deaths

Whitty says, even allowing for the vaccination programme, there are still lots of people at risk.

He says at some point there will be a further surge in the virus.

What we are going to see is, as things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is that at some point we will get a surge in virus.

We hope it doesn’t happen soon, it might for example happen later in the summer if we open up gradually or because of the seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter.

All the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked.

Some of them will end up in hospital and sadly some of them will go on to die.

But the ratio of cases to deaths will go right down, he says.

Updated

Stringer says MPs do not know what data will be used to decide whether or not it is safe to move to the next step of lockdown easing.

He says the plan, as set out, allows “arbitrary decisions to be made”.

Vallance says the final decisions are for government.

Q: Are there precise numbers that will trigger a faster or slower lockdown?

Vallance says Sage has not recommended numbers like that.

Labour’s Graham Stringer goes next.

Q: Is “data not dates” anything more than a slogan?

Not for us, says Vallance.

For example, he says, they do not know the impact of schools going back.

For us it’s very important that you measure what you’ve done and we don’t know what the impact of, for example schools going back, is going to be.

And so there’s an estimate from the modelling group that it could have an effect on R, between 10% and 50% increase. We don’t know within that range exactly what it would be.

Updated

Q: Do the plans to allow vaccine companies to tweak their vaccines so they can deal with new variants pose a risk to patients?

Vallance says this is what happens with the flu vaccine every year. It is a very well-established process, he says.

The “basic vaccine backbones” have been approved. If you tweak it to deal with a variant, that will be similar to what happens with the flu vaccine, he says. He says it will be for the regulator to judge this.

Dawn Butler (Lab) is asking the questions now.

Q: Should the roadmap be focused more on general principles?

Vallance says he agrees that ensuring people understand the principles behind the rules is important; for example, that outside is safer than inside, that hand washing is important; that masks help.

Some of these need to become part of routine ways we behave, he says.

Butler suggested this approach might be better than focusing on dates.

Vallance says Sage said dates should be “not before” dates.

How principles are translated into policy is for ministers, he says.

Updated

Q: Are there any differences between Sage advice and the plans in the roadmap?

Vallance says the roadmap is consistent with the advice given by Sage.

But Sage did not give advice on precisely what the government should be doing, he says,

Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance questioned by MPs about roadmap to lifting restrictions

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific adviser, are giving evidence to the Commons science committee. We are putting a live feed at the top of the page.

Greg Clark, the committee chair, says the session will focus on the scientific evidence behind the PM’s roadmap for relaxing coronavirus restrictions.

This is from Matt Hancock, the health secretary, on the closure of the Nightingale hospitals. (See 9.29am.)

Nightingale hospitals in England to close

Nightingale hospitals set up to cope with a spike in Covid-19 cases are to close from April, although the sites in London and Sunderland will stay open for vaccinations, PA Media reports. PA says:

NHS England said existing hospitals have been able to increase their beds so successfully that the Nightingales are no longer needed.

A network of seven hospitals in England was set up last spring amid fears that the health service may end up overwhelmed, as had happened in some other countries.

The Nightingale hospitals in England were largely not needed and some were stepped down to rehabilitation centres.

In January, the Health Service Journal (HSJ) reported figures published by minister for innovation Lord Bethell, which put the total cost of the temporary hospitals at around £532m by the end of the 2022 financial year.

The estimate included costs for setting up the Nightingales, running costs, stand-by costs and decommissioning costs.

An NHS spokeswoman said: “Since the very early days of the pandemic the Nightingale hospitals have been on hand as the ultimate insurance policy in case existing hospital capacity was overwhelmed but, as we have learned more about coronavirus, and how to successfully treat Covid, existing hospitals have adapted to significantly surge critical care capacity, and even in the winter wave - which saw more than 100,000 patients with the virus admitted in a single month - there were beds available across the country.

“Thank you to the many NHS staff and partners who worked so hard to set the Nightingales up so swiftly and of course the public who followed the guidance on controlling the spread of the virus and helped to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.”

Buckland says final decision on NHS staff pay rise might differ from proposed 1%

Good morning. The coronavirus news agenda is likely to be dominated this morning by the Commons science committee, which is taking evidence from Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific adviser. But first Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, has been out giving interviews about the police, crime, sentencing and courts bill being unveiled today, and he dropped a hint that the final decision on a pay rise for NHS staff might be more generous than the 1% increase proposed by the government.

Speaking on BBC Breakfast he said:

The final recommendations have not yet been made. We have got to remember that in large other swathes of the public sector there will be a pay freeze save for the lowest paid. I don’t think at the moment we are at the end of this process.

I think that we need to see what the recommendations are and I very much hope that the outcome - whilst it might not be an outcome in these difficult circumstances that will result in pay rises that everybody would want to see - that the work that has been done by NHS workers will be recognised in a way that is appropriate, bearing in mind the constraints we are all under.

It is not for me to start to prejudge what the outcome of the negotiations is. I am simply pointing out that we are at the beginning of that process and we will have to see what the recommendations are.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific adviser, give evidence to the Commons science committee.

9.30am: Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, gives evidence to the Commons health committee about the health white paper.

9.30am: The ONS publishes its latest weekly death figures for England and Wales.

9.30am: Boris Johnson chairs cabinet.

10am: Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, gives a speech on planning for pandemics. As my colleague Jessica Elgot reports, he will say ministers must start war-gaming the next pandemic and their plans should be independently audited to prove the UK is prepared for global health threats to come

10am: Nick Gibb, the schools minister, gives evidence to the Commons education committee about Covid and schools.

12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.

12.30pm: Labour asks a Commons urgent question about the publication of Covid contracts.

After 2pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, makes a statement to MSPs about Covid. She is expected to announce a limited easing on the restrictions on meeting people outside.

Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.

Here is our global coronavirus live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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