Early evening summary
-
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, said he expected a further Covid surge in the autumn or winter. (See 3.19pm.)
- Downing Street has said it has no plans to introduce a legal right to work from home - although it has confirmed that it is considering plans to make flexible working “the default”, which could end up amounting to much the same thing. (See 1.06pm.)
- Edwin Poots, the new DUP leader, is reportedly expected to face a no confidence motion after many of his MPs and MLAs objected to his decision to nominate Paul Givan as first minister. Poots went ahead with the nomination, intended to allow a cross-party executive to be formed, after talks involving Sinn Fein resolved a stand-off involving Irish language legislation. Sinn Fein wants the legislation, the DUP was unwilling to commit to passing the legislation at Stormont within a certain timescale, and the compromise involved Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland secretary, saying Westminster will pass its own bill implementing this if Stormont does not act by the end of September. Many in the DUP think Poots has given away too much to Sinn Fein. This is from the BBC’s Darran Marshall.
'Sullen' Edwin Poots expected to face no confidence motion.
— Darran Marshall (@DarranMarshall) June 17, 2021
He was ratified as DUP leader five weeks ago. https://t.co/aouTDY3TlT
That’s all from me for today. But our coronavirus coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Prof Jeremy Brown, professor of respiratory infection at University College London and a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has said some parts of the capital could have January-type levels of hospitalisation later this year because of poor vaccine take-up.
In London 69.7% of adults have had one dose, and 44.6% two doses, compared with 80.1% and 58.2% respectively in the UK as a whole.
But, in an interview with Times Radio, Brown said that the London figures obscured considerable local variation. In affluent boroughs vaccine take-up was quite close to the national figures, but in other areas, it was much lower, he said. For example, in Lambeth only 50% of people have had a first dose, and only 30.7% have had both doses.
Brown said:
There’s certainly a risk that there could be a significant wave that locally in those places might translate into something which might approach what happened in January, I would really sincerely hope not.
Still, a very high portion of the population in those boroughs has been vaccinated and that will slow transmission. And therefore that should slow the number of people coming into hospital and make it more manageable.
But to counterbalance that, the Delta variant is more transmissible, which means it spreads faster.
So you’ve got this really complicated situation where the variant can spread faster, but the population is more resistant and how that translates into actual hospital admissions - it’s really quite difficult to actually draw strong conclusions [about] how it will pan out.
Updated
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has leapt to the defence of Matt Hancock, telling MPs the health secretary is a “successful genius”.
At business questions in the Commons Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow leader of the Commons, asked about the text message published yesterday by Dominic Cummings showing that the PM referred to Hancock as “totally fucking hopeless” at one point last year. She asked:
Why did the prime minister keep on as health secretary someone he thought was hopeless in a global health crisis?
The British people recognise incompetence and waste when they see it. They know what’s right and what’s not and they know when a minister is hopeless.
Rees-Mogg replied by suggesting messages of the kind published by Cummings are “essentially the trivia, the flotsam and jetsam, the ephemera of life, and they’re fundamentally unimportant”.
And he went on to call Hancock “the brilliant, the one and only successful genius who has been running health over the last 15 months”, adding that “he has done so much to make not only the country but the world safer”.
PHE research suggests 0.4% of people who have had coronavirus have had it twice
For a long time it has been known that people can get coronavirus more than once, but for the first time today Public Health England has published figures intended to show how often this happens.
In a news release it said:
The current data shows that there is a low risk of reinfection with Sars-CoV-2. There were 15,893 possible reinfections with Sars-CoV-2 identified up to 30 May 2021 in England throughout the pandemic, out of nearly 4 million people with confirmed infections. This is equivalent to around 0.4% cases becoming reinfected.
PHE also said it would start publishing data on this weekly.
Dr Susan Hopkins, the strategic director for Covid at PHE, said:
People are understandably concerned about whether you can catch Covid-19 more than once. While we know that people can catch viruses more than once, this data currently suggests that the rate of Covid-19 reinfection is low. However, it is important that we do not become complacent about this – it is vital to have both doses of the vaccine and to follow the guidance at all times to reduce your chance of any infection.
Updated
One of the hotels contracted to provide compulsory quarantine for travellers from high-risk countries has withdrawn from the scheme after fears that infection control failures led to a Covid outbreak among guests spreading to the local community.
The Penta hotel in central Reading has been the source of row between the local council and the government after an outbreak of the Delta variant spread from guests and staff into the community.
The Labour-led council’s calls to close the facility were ignored by the government last week. But now Reading borough has been told that the hotel is withdrawing from the £1,750 per guest scheme and will close the quarantine facility either on 30 June or when the last guest who has tested positive for Covid has completed their isolation period.
Jason Brock, leader of the council, welcomed the move. He said: “This is clearly the right decision for the safety of both their staff and the residents of Reading too, as we can evidence via the community chain of transmission.”
He criticised the original decision to select the quarantine facility in the centre of Reading without consultation with the council. He said:
Should the Department for Health and Social Care [DHSC] consider opening a new international travel quarantine facility in Reading then I’d call on them to take the time to consult and engage with the council before selecting a site. So many of the problems and risks we have seen could have been readily avoided if they had done this last time.
The DHSC has been approached for comment.
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/REX/Shutterstock
Updated
Updated
UK records 11,007 new cases, as 80% of adults have now had first dose of vaccine
The UK has recorded 11,007 new Covid cases, according to today’s update on the government’s coronavirus dashboard. That is the highest daily total for almost four months (since 19 February, when 12,027 cases were recorded). The total number of new cases over the past week is 33.7% up on the total for the previous seven days.
There have been 19 further deaths, and week on week deaths are up 41.8%.
Hospital admissions are up 43% week on week (although that data goes up to Sunday).
And 80.1% of adults have now had a first dose of vaccine, with 58.2% of people now double-vaccinated.
Updated
Lib Dems claim Tories could be on brink of losing safe seat in Chesham and Amersham byelection
The Liberal Democrats have claimed today’s Chesham and Amersham byelection is “neck and neck” as voters go to the polls in the historically Conservative safe seat, PA Media reports
The constituency in Buckinghamshire has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1974, but the Liberal Democrats have insisted it could “go down to the wire” ahead of polls opening on Thursday morning.
Chesham and Amersham, named after the market towns in the constituency, has had just two MPs in its history, Sir Ian Gilmour until 1992, and former Welsh secretary Dame Cheryl Gillan until her death in April.
In 2019 Gillan had a majority of 16,223 over the Lib Dems.
Eight hopefuls are in the running for the seat, including former Ford executive Peter Fleet for the Conservative party and entrepreneur Sarah Green for the Liberal Democrats.
Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, has been a regular fixture in the constituency during the campaign in efforts to win over voters, while Boris Johnson also made an appearance in the run up to the by-election.
A spokesman for the Liberal Democrats said: “It is neck and neck in Chesham and Amersham.
“This election will go down to the wire and the Conservatives could be in for a shock.”
This is from Peter Fleet, the Tory candidate.
Election Day in #chesham and #amersham #byelection! Big thank you to the best team out from 0700hrs! @caca_tories @MATatBucks @LouiseStaite pic.twitter.com/DyoDYSjxBU
— Peter Fleet (@pdfleet) June 17, 2021
And this is from HuffPost’s Paul Waugh.
"They are shitting bricks" - a Tory local govt source on the mood in CCHQ over the Chesham and Amersham by-election today. Lib Dems quietly confident of scoring an upset in the safe seat.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) June 17, 2021
Summary of Chris Whitty's speech to NHS Confederation
Here are the main points from Prof Chris Whitty’s speech to the NHS Confederation.
- Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, said he expected a further Covid surge in the autumn or winter. He said:
In terms of the medium term, my expectation is that we will get a further winter surge, late autumn/winter surge. That is because we know that winter and autumn favour respiratory viruses, and therefore it would be very surprising if this highly transmissible respiratory virus was not also favoured.
So therefore we’ll get the current wave, an exit wave, and then I do think most people think that there will be further problems over the winter.
How big they’ll be I think is uncertain, and that partly depends on do we get new variants which evade vaccines better, and partly depends on how the current wave passes through the UK.
- He said he expected next winter to be challenging for the NHS. That was because it would probably be dealing with Covid and flu. Last winter there was little flu, he said. But he said unless the Covid situation got so bad that people started reducing their contacts, flu would come back. He went on:
So either we will have a very significant Covid surge, people will minimise their contacts and we will have less respiratory viruses or people will get back to a more normal life, there will be some Covid but on top of that we will go back to having a flu surge, an RSV surge in children and so on.
So I think we need to be aware and braced for the fact that the coming winter may well be quite a difficult one, not probably on the scale of the last one ... which was really the worst I think any of us can remember, but still quite a significant one. We as the NHS have to brace ourselves for that.
- He said that currently a Covid surge was under way and that cases would continue to rise for the next few weeks. He said this would lead to further hospitalisations and deaths. But he said it was not clear how big the surge would be.
- He said that after five years he thought vaccines would be available that could “hold the line” against a range of variants. He said:
In terms of the medium to longer term, if I look five years out, I would expect us to have polyvalent vaccines which will hold the line to a very large degree against even new variants as they come in, and an ability to respond with vaccination to new variants.
- But he said until then new vaccination programmes might be needed. He said:
But the period over the next two or three years, I think new variants may will lead to us having to re-vaccinate or consider at least boosting vaccination as they come through.
We have to just be aware that Covid has not thrown its last surprise at us and there will be there will be several more over the next period.
Updated
Public Health England has published its weekly Covid surveillance report (pdf). It is based on data from the week ending Sunday 13 June (week 23).
Here is an extract from the PHE summary.
Surveillance indicators suggest that at a national level Covid-19 activity increased in week [ending 13 June]
Case rates per 100,000 have increased in all age groups, ethnic groups and regions.
The number of acute respiratory infection incidents (suspected outbreaks) in England was 327 in week 23, compared with 287 in the previous week.
Case rates continue to be highest in those aged 20 to 29, with a case rate of 195.9 per 100,000 population.
The lowest case rates were in those aged 80 and above, with a rate of 9.6 per 100,000 population.
Case rates per 100,000 have increased across all regions
Case rates per 100,000 remain highest in the north west at 196.9.
Case rates per 100,000 are lowest in the east of England, with a rate of 37.0.
Seroprevalence data indicates around 79.1% of the population have antibodies to SarsARS-CoV-2 from either infection or vaccination, compared withto 14.8% from infection alone.
The hospital admission rate for Covid-19 has risen – it was 1.48 per 100,000 in week 23, compared withto 1.13 per 100,000 in the previous week.
Hospital admission rates for Covid-19 are highest in the north-west, with a rate of 2.62.
The highest hospital admission rates continue to be those aged 85 and above.
We've just published our weekly #COVID19 surveillance report.
— Public Health England (@PHE_uk) June 17, 2021
See the report here: https://t.co/8dYt9zEVk9
Updated
Whitty ends his speech with a tribute to the extraordinary work that NHS staff have been doing during the pandemic.
Whitty says Covid has struck worse in deprived areas.
And he says these places have suffered health problems for years. He says a map of areas worst affected by Covid and a map of areas with the highest child deaths in 1850 would look very similar.
UPDATE: Whitty said:
The geographical areas where Covid has hit have been extremely defined, where the biggest problems have been repeated.
So, you see in situations in Bradford, in Leicester, in bits of London for example, in bits of the north west, you see repeated areas where places have been hit over and over again in areas of deprivation.
Indeed in many of them, if you had a map of Covid’s biggest effects now and a map of child deaths in 1850, they look remarkably similar.
These are areas where deprivation has been prolonged and deeply entrenched.
Updated
Whitty says there was very little flu last winter.
Unless there is a big Covid surge, there should be more contact between people this winter, he says. That should lead to more flu cases, he says.
Updated
Whitty says he expects further Covid surge in winter, creating difficulties for NHS
Whitty says he does expect a further surge in the autumn and winter.
That is because the winter is a good time for respiratory illnesses, he says. It would be “very surprising” if winter did not favour the virus.
How big the problems will be is uncertain, he says.
He says the winter could be “quite a difficult one” of the NHS, although not as bad as last winter.
Updated
Chris Whitty's speech to NHS Confederation
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, is speaking to the NHS Confederation now.
He says the country is definitely in a situation where there is a further surge.
The height of that surge is uncertain, he says.
But he says he will definitely translate into more hospitalisations and more deaths.
Here is some more from Northern Ireland journalists and commentators on the DUP civil war. (See 1.42pm.)
From the BBC’s Stephen Nolan
Senior DUP source just off the phone to me .
— Stephen Nolan (@StephenNolan) June 17, 2021
Told me Edwin read the room was against him, stood up and said “I am leaving now& I am going to nominate”
Source said “ who in their right mind would do this”
Vote was 26 v 8 .
Every MP except Paisley against nomination.
DUP source tells Nolan Show
— Stephen Nolan (@StephenNolan) June 17, 2021
“Edwin walking out of the meeting was incredible . Who in their right mind would do this . A lot will change before tomorrow . This is unsustainable “
From RTE’s Vincent Kearney
Astonishing stuff. Senior DUP sources say around 3 quarters of those who attended party meeting at Stormont this morning voted AGAINST nominating Paul Givan as First Minister @rtenews
— Vincent Kearney (@vincekearney) June 17, 2021
From openDemocracy’s Peter Geoghegan
This is absolutely *wild*. The DUP MLAs voted *against* their own nominee for N Ireland first minister. https://t.co/TnqSiLT0G8
— Peter Geoghegan (@PeterKGeoghegan) June 17, 2021
From Henry McDonald
Today’s drama in the DUP is like an episode from the Borgias but without the backdrop of all the latter’s sumptuous art and renaissance grandeur.
— Henry McDonald (@henrymcdonald) June 17, 2021
From Amanda Ferguson
DUP imploding. Edwin Poots could be out on his ear soon… Incredible.
— Amanda Ferguson (@AmandaFBelfast) June 17, 2021
Hancock says backlog for NHS operations will rise because some patients still not going to GPs with problems
Q: Will funding be there to address the NHS backlog over the next six, 12 and 24 months?
Yes, says Hancock.
He says they have not concluded the discussions in government yet on how much money will be needed.
But those discussions are important.
And there is a “reasonably clear picture” of what is needed.
He says he can absolutely commit to giving the service the funding it needs.
But he also says there is still some uncertainty as to how many people will come forward with conditions that have not been treated yet who are not already in the system.
There is another backlog there which just isn’t in the numbers yet.
He says he recently had lunch with an elderly member of his family who said he had a knee problem that he had not discussed yet with his GP.
He says he expects the backlog numbers to rise.
Updated
Matt Hancock has finished his speech - a general overview, and a defence of the plans for the health bill - and he is now taking questions.
Q: The bill will give you more powers to intervene locally. How will that produce more innovation?
Hancock says he wants to push decision-making powers down. He says there is a “power of direction” in the bill, but he does not anticipate using this power very often.
Hancock also confirmed in his speech that vaccinations would be open to people aged 18 and over in England from tomorrow.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is speaking to the NHS Confederation conference, and he has just said four out of five adults in the UK have now had their first dose of vaccine.
Assuming that he is not generalising, that means 80% of the adult population. Yesterday the figure was 79.8%.
Paul Givan nominate for first minister of Northern Ireland despite protests from DUP MPs and MLAs
Paul Givan and Michelle O’Neill have accepted their nominations as first and deputy first ministers of Northern Ireland, despite significant opposition from senior DUP members over the process, PA Media reports. PA says:
DUP leader Edwin Poots formally nominated Givan, the Lagan Valley MLA, at a special sitting of the Stormont assembly on Thursday.
Sinn Féin’s Conor Murphy nominated his party colleague O’Neill to take up the role of deputy first minister.
Givan thanked his party leader for having “confidence in me”.
The process went ahead despite a morning of uncertainty and unease from senior DUP figures who questioned their party leader’s decision to proceed.
It is understood a significant majority of DUP MLAs and MPs voted against Poots’s decision to nominate a Stormont first minister.
The vote was taken after a heated internal party meeting at Parliament Buildings ahead of the nomination process in the assembly.
PA understands that Poots and Givan had left the room before the vote took place.
One senior party source at the meeting described the atmosphere to PA.
“Dreadful. Utterly dreadful. Never experienced the like of it,” said the source.
On Thursday morning, party MPs and peers sent an urgent email to Poots urging him to hold off nominating Givan until he explained his decision to reconstitute the powersharing administration after Sinn Féin secured a key concession on Irish language laws.
The email, a copy of which has been seen by the PA news agency, is signed by defeated leadership candidate Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, party chairman Lord Morrow, senior MPs Sammy Wilson, Gregory Campbell and Gavin Robinson, former deputy leader Lord Dodds and a number of other senior members.
In total seven of the DUP’s eight MPs signed the email, with Ian Paisley being the exception. The party’s five peers also signed it.
Many of those who signed the email would have supported Donaldson in his leadership bid, though some, like MP Paul Girvan, supported Poots’s candidacy.
The email read: “We note the announcement made by the secretary of state in the early hours of this morning that both you and the Sinn Féin leadership have agreed to nominate a first minister and deputy first minister on the basis that Westminster will legislate on the Irish language and other matters if the assembly fails to do so by October. We are also in receipt of your email this morning regarding this agreement.
“We are very concerned about this development and therefore, are urgently requesting that you meet with us as DUP members of parliament and peers to explain the basis of your agreement with the secretary of state and Sinn Féin before any further steps are taken in this process, including the nomination of a first minister. Assuming you will have prior consultation with your assembly group, we would be happy to join this meeting.”
Updated
No 10 insists it has no plans to introduce legal right to work from home
At the Downing Street lobby briefing No 10 said the government had no plans to introduce a legal right to work from home.
The PM’s spokesman briefed quite heavily against the idea, in what seemed like a clear effort to counter the Daily Mail splash (see 11.38am), which said workers could get a default right to work from home. No 10 never likes being on the wrong side of the Mail, and the paper made it clear that it disapproved, saying that it could lead to towns becoming “zombie” zones.
(The Mail’s editorial stance may be self-interested; if people do not commute to work, they might be less likely to buy newspapers.)
Asked about the story, the spokesman said:
We’ve always been clear there are significant benefits to be gained from people working in the office: innovation delivery, supporting and developing people, and of course ensuring people have a higher-quality working environment.
We’ve asked people to work from home where they can during the pandemic, but there are no plans to make this permanent or introduce a legal right to work from home.
And later he said:
It is important to stress that there are no plans to make working from home the default, or introduce a legal right to work from home.
But the spokesman also confirmed that the government was consulting on making flexible working easier, as the Tories proposed in their 2019 manifesto (see 11.38am), and he was not entirely clear as to how this might differ from a right to work from home.
The spokesman said flexible working covered “a range of working arrangements around the time, place, hours of work, and includes part-time working and flexitime, compressed hours, hours”.
The Tory manifesto said flexible working should become “the default unless employers have good reasons not to” and the spokesman confirmed that this is what the government was consulting on.
But when asked to asked to explain why, if flexible working included place, making flexible working the default would not be the same as making an element of working from home the default, the spokesman just resorted to repeating the point about the government considering flexible working.
The spokesman was not able to say when the review of flexible working would report back.
Updated
Labour says British farmers will be undercut by free trade deal with Australia
Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, gave a statement in the Commons this morning as she published a paper giving fuller details of the free trade agreement with Australia agreed this week. But Emily Thornberry, her Labour opposite number, accused her of “breaking the promises made to the British people”.
Thornberry said that Truss said last October she would not allow British farmers to be undercut by cheap imports from countries produced using practices not allowed in the UK.
But in Australia at least 10 such practices are allowed, Thornberry said. She listed them: allowing slurry to pollute rivers; using growth-promoting antibiotics; housing hens in battery cages; trimming their beaks with hot blades; mulesing young lambs; keeping pregnant pigs in sow stalls; branding cattle with hot irons; dehorning and spaying them without pain relief; and transporting livestock for 48 hours without rest, food or water.
Thornberry went on:
Under the deal that [Truss] has signed, the meat from farms that use those practices will come into our country tariff-free, undermining British standards, undercutting British farmers and breaking the promises made to the British people.
The secretary of state told the newspapers in April that she would sit her inexperienced Australian counterpart in an uncomfortable chair and show him how to play at this level. I’m afraid this deal has exposed the secretary of state as the one who is not up to the job. Britain needs and deserves better.
In response, Truss said that Thornberry was being “relentlessly negative” about the opportunities on offer to British farmer. Thornberry “should be known as the shadow secretary of state against international trade because there is not a single trade deal that she supports”, Truss said.
Updated
There are unlikely to be more easings of Covid restrictions this month in Wales because of growing concerns over the Delta variant, the Guardian understands.
The first minister, Mark Drakeford, is due to set out the position at a press conference in Cardiff tomorrow.
But expectations are being played down of changes such as more people being able to meet indoors. The Welsh cabinet met on Wednesday.
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Labour has called on the government to clarify its position on office working, after suggestions that it is considering legislation to make working from home a “default” right, my colleague Jasper Jolly reports.
This morning the Daily Mail has splashed on a story by Jason Groves headlined: “Shock plans to work from home for ever.”
Thursday’s Daily MAIL: “Shock Plans To Work From Home For Ever” #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/fngHCwu6YG
— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) June 16, 2021
Groves reports:
Millions of office staff would be given a ‘default’ right to work from home under post-pandemic plans from ministers.
The proposals would change the law to make it impossible for employers to insist on staff attending the workplace unless they can show it is essential.
The Government will consult on the plan – part of a drive to promote flexible working – over the summer, ahead of possible legislation later this year.
As the BBC’s Adam Fleming has pointed out, a proposal along these lines was a little-noticed feature of the 2019 Conservative election manifesto (pdf). It said:
While the modern workplace is adapting as a result, we can do more as a government to make things easier, learning from sensible approaches adopted in other countries. We will therefore introduce a raft of measures that balance the needs of employees and employers:
We will encourage flexible working and consult on making it the default unless employers have good reasons not to.
Yesterday Jeremy Hunt (Con), the chair of the health committee, effectively ruled that Dominic Cummings was wrong to accuse Matt Hancock, the health secretary, of lying in his evidence to the joint heath/science committee inquiry. Hunt’s argument was not 100% convincing.
But this morning Graham Stringer (Lab), a member of the science committee, told Times Radio that he thought Hancock’s own evidence to the joint inquiry substantiated many of the criticisms Cummings levelled at him. Stringer said:
What I do know, because I listened to the 11 and a half hours of Dominic Cummings and the health secretary, is the health secretary’s justification for some of the bad things that have happened doesn’t stand up ...
He has presented cherrypicked figures for his decision to send untested people back into care homes where 26,000 people died last year. He’s refused to answer messages explaining that there was asymptomatic transmission early on ...
One could go on. But I think the health secretary’s evidence when we look at it, actually substantiates a lot of Dominic Cummings’ criticism of him.
Updated
Here is some comment from the Science Media Centre on today’s React study suggesting that suggesting that Covid cases are doubling in England every 11 days. (See 9.13am.)
From Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute medical research centre
The survey shows that the Delta variant is spreading most rapidly in the younger unvaccinated cohort. The second vaccine dose is once again shown to be highly effective at reducing infection and hospitalisation, this is most clearly seen in the elder (mainly vaccinated) cohort. The case for increasing the coverage of the double vaccinated as rapidly as possible is clear. I am confident that when and if we reach 85 % coverage of double vaccination of the population capable of onward spread, then the UK will indeed be able to live with the virus.
From Prof Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University:
What’s remarkable is how close the React-1 results for this round (and the round before) are to the [ONS’s Covid Infection Survey, CIS] results for England. React-1 estimates that, on average during their latest round, 0.15% (or 15 in every 10,000) of the English community population would test positive for the virus. That’s about 1 in 670. Because the estimate comes from a survey, there’s some statistical uncertainty, and the number could plausibly be between about 1 in 560 and 1 in 830. The latest official estimate from CIS for England, for the week from 30 May to 5 June, was that about 1 in 560 would test positive, with a margin of error from 1 in 480 to 1 in 680.
Updated
Deal on Irish language act averts Stormont crisis
A late-night deal on Irish language legislation has averted a crisis that threatened to collapse Northern Ireland’s government, my colleague Rory Carroll reports.
UPDATE: According to Sky’s David Blevins, the DUP leader Edwin Poots is facing something of a backlash over his agreement to restore power-sharing.
“Poots is rollover king.” Jim Alister, TUV leader.
— David Blevins (@skydavidblevins) June 17, 2021
TUV, Traditional Unionist Voice, is a hardline unionist party, seen as being more uncompromising than the DUP.
Several DUP MPs and peers have written to leader Edwin Poots expressing concern about political developments and urging him to stall the nomination of Paul Givan as First Minister until there is wider consultation. 👀
— David Blevins (@skydavidblevins) June 17, 2021
Updated
Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, told MPs this morning that the result of last night’s vote on delaying the lifting of remaining coronavirus restrictions was wrongly announced. It was reported as 461 MPs voting in favour, and 60 against. But Hoyle said this morning:
[Maria Caulfield, a Conservative whip] has informed me that the number of aye votes was erroneously reported as 461 rather than 489. I will direct the clerk to correct the numbers in the journal accordingly.
The ayes were 489, the noes were 60. The ayes have it. The names were correctly recorded in Hansard.
Aviation chiefs are launching a legal challenge over restrictions on international travel, PA Media reports. Ryanair and Manchester Airports Group (MAG) - which owns Manchester, Stansted and East Midlands airports - will call for more transparency over how Whitehall decides which countries are on the green, amber and red lists.
Minister suggests 'totally hopeless' text does not represent Johnson's considered view of Hancock
Jesse Norman, a Treasury minister, was doing the morning interview round on behalf of the government earlier and in his appearances he dismissed the revelation that Boris Johnson had described Matt Hancock as “totally fucking hopeless” in a text last year. Norman told the Today programme:
The prime minister obviously, as anybody would detect, is a massive supporter of the health secretary, he’s coming firmly behind him. There can be no question of loss of confidence.”
Norman also argued that the message, revealed by Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s former chief adviser, had been sent “in the middle of the biggest economic and public health catastrophe for a century” and he said it was just “a tiny snapshot of one side of the story without any context”, implying it did not represent Johnson’s considered view of Hancock.
Updated
ONS survey shows only 0.5% of people getting infected after first dose of vaccine
The Office for National Statistics has published a report this morning on the prospects of testing positive for coronavirus after having a vaccine, and mostly the findings are very encouraging. It says:
- Only 0.5% of those sampled who had had a first dose of vaccine later tested positive for coronavirus, the report says. The figures were 0.8% for those having the Pfizer vaccine and 0.3% for the AstraZeneca vaccine. After having had a second dose of vaccine, only 0.1% tested positive (with Pfizer and AstraZeneca both on 0.1%).
- The risk of a new infection after vaccination was “highest during the first 21 days after the first vaccination”, the report says. After that the risk “strongly decreased”.
- People who did get infected after a vaccination were “less likely to have symptoms and less likely to have a high viral load” than other infected people, the report says.
- The risk of testing positive after a vaccination was higher for people under 40, for people working in patient-facing healthcare roles and in care homes, for people in larger households and for people in poorer areas.
- The raw figures show the risk of infection actually going up after the first vaccination, “peaking at around 16 days, followed by a strong decrease to around one month”. But this might be the result of people being infected before having their first vaccination but not realising it, the ONS says. It says other possible explanations for this could be “exposure to Covid-19 at vaccination centres, change in behaviour following vaccination, or prompts to get vaccinated because of knowledge of individuals around them testing positive”. Here is the chart that illustrates this.
The figures show people being more likely to get infected after a first dose of Pfizer vaccine than after a first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine. But the ONS says that that might just be because proportionally more people were getting Pfizer in December 2020 and January 2021, when infections were particularly high.
Overall the figures in the report are based on survey results from December 2020 to May 2021.
The figures showing only 0.5% of people getting infected after a first dose, and only 0.1% getting infected after a second dose, may look incompatible with Public Health England figures saying a first dose of vaccine reduce the risk of symptomatic infection by “only” 55 to 70%.
But the PHE figures relate to comparable risk. They don’t make allowance for the fact that most people do not get coronavirus in any given week. The ONS figures reflect the real experience of people, although they do not contain a figure giving the infection rate for a non-vaccinated comparable group.
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Hancock says study shows delay in lifting England restrictions was needed
Good morning. Last night the government comfortably won the vote on delaying the lifting of remaining Covid restrictions in England very comfortably. But 49 Conservative MPs voted against the government, with another two acting as tellers. Six Labour MPs and five DUP MPs voted against the government too. It was the second biggest rebellion Boris Johnson has suffered on Covid, beaten only by the 55 Tory MPs voting against the government on the tiering system (remember that?) in December last year.
This morning Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has said that a new report suggesting that Covid cases are doubling in England every 11 days justifies the government’s decision. He said:
These findings highlight the stark context in which we took the difficult decision to delay Step 4 of the roadmap out of lockdown.
Cases are now rising, but thanks to our incredible vaccination programme and enhanced response package including surge testing, we have the tools to curb the spread of this virus.
We all must hold our nerve that little bit longer as our vaccine rollout continues.
The research is from Imperial College London’s REACT study. You can read an Imperial College summary here, the full report here (pdf) and a story about it here.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The ONS publishes a report on Covid positivity after vaccination, and a report on the impact of Covid on students.
10.30am: Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, makes a Commons statement on the free trade deal with Australia
12pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions in the Scottish parliament.
12pm: Downing Street lobby briefing.
Lunchtime: Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, and Anneliese Dodds, the party chair, launch the party’s policy review.
1.30pm: Matt Hancock, the health secretary, gives a speech to the NHS Confederation conference; at 2pm Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, will speak.
2pm: Public Health England publishes its weekly Covid surveillance report.
Politics Live has been a mix of Covid and non-Covid news recently, and that is likely to be the case today. For global coronavirus developments, do read our global live blog. It’s here.
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