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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK Covid: single AstraZeneca jab 'could cut transmission by 67%'; Captain Tom Moore dies – as it happened

A health worker draws a dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Newcastle.
A health worker draws a dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Newcastle. Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters

Early evening summary

  • Oxford University has released research showing that a single dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an efficacy rate of 76% after 22 days until 90 days. The research also suggests giving single doses of the vaccine could reduce transmission by 67%. (See 5.57pm.)
  • Scientists have said evidence that the Kent variant of coronavirus, which is now the dominant one in the UK, is becoming more similar to the South African one is worrying. (See 12pm.)
  • Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has said the testing is being boosted in parts of Bristol and Liverpool after “mutations of concern” were found in the virus circulating there. (See 1.32pm.)

That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.

Single dose of AstraZeneca vaccine could cut transmission by 67%, research shows

Oxford University has released research showing that a single dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an efficacy rate of 76% after 22 days until 90 days. That helps to justify the government’s decision to delay giving the second dose until after 12 weeks.

The research also suggests that giving single doses of the vaccine could reduce transmission by 67%.

This is significant because the impact that vaccines have on transmission makes a big difference to the likely rise in cases and deaths when restrictions get lifted. As the Sage research suggests, a 67% rate is near the upper end of expectations - meaning that ministers will feel more confident lifting lockdown rules earlier rather than later.

Updated

From the royal family’s Twitter account

Here are some more tributes to Captain Sir Tom Moore.

From Justin Welby, the archbishop of Canterbury:

I am deeply saddened to hear that Sir Captain Tom Moore has died. I pray for his family and friends, and I join millions across the country in mourning with them.

Captain Tom was the very best of us. His courage, compassion, resilience, hope and generosity have been an inspiration to millions - and an example to us all. Where he walked a nation followed.

I give thanks to God for such a long life, so well lived. May Captain Tom rest in peace.

From David Cameron, the former prime minister

From Harriet Harman, the former deputy Labour leader

From the Labour MP Toby Perkins

From Johnny Mercer, the defence minister

Updated

There have been 13 confirmed or probable cases of the South African variant in Wales. Ten have a travel link to southern Africa and the remaining three remain under investigation.

A Public Health Wales spokesperson said:

As at Tuesday 2 February we have identified nine genomically confirmed and four probable cases of the South African variant of Coronavirus in Wales. Ten of these have a travel link to southern Africa, and investigations are ongoing on the remaining cases.

The union jack flags flying in Downing Street at are half mast this evening in honour of Captain Sir Tom Moore.

The Union flags above Downing Street have been lowered to half mast to honour Captain Sir Tom Moore.
The Union flags above Downing Street have been lowered to half mast to honour Captain Sir Tom Moore. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

Boris Johnson has issued this tribute to Captain Sir Tom Moore.

NHS England has recorded 767 coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.

A week ago today the equivalent figure was 875.

Here is my colleague Sarah Boseley, the Guardian’s health editor, explaining what is known about the new coronavirus variants.

And here are tributes to Captain Sir Tom Moore from politicians and political figures.

From Sir Keir Starmer

From Ben Wallace, the defence secretary

From Matt Hancock, the health secretary

From Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary

From Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister

From Arlene Foster, Northern Ireland’s first minister

From Carrie Symonds, Boris Johnson’s fiancé

The Queen and the royal family’s thoughts are with Captain Sir Tom Moore’s family and she is sending a private message of condolence, Buckingham Palace has said.

The UK government has updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key figures.

  • The UK has recorded 1,449 further Covid deaths - the highest daily total on this measure since last Wednesday (1,725 deaths). But the seven-day rolling average for deaths is now 9.7% lower than it was a week ago; yesterday it was down 7.4% week on week.
  • The UK has recorded 16,840 further cases - its lowest daily total for almost eight weeks. It has not been this low since 9 December, when 16,578 cases were recorded.

Here is my colleague Yohannes Lowe’s story about Captain Sir Tom Moore’s death.

Family statement announcing death of 'incredible father and grandfather' Tom Moore

Here is a statement about Captain Sir Tom Moore’s death from his daughters, Hannah Ingram-Moore and Lucy Teixeira.

It is with great sadness that we announce the death of our dear father, Captain Sir Tom Moore.

We are so grateful that we were with him during the last hours of his life; Hannah, Benjie and Georgia by his bedside and Lucy on FaceTime. We spent hours chatting to him, reminiscing about our childhood and our wonderful mother. We shared laughter and tears together.

The last year of our father’s life was nothing short of remarkable. He was rejuvenated and experienced things he’d only ever dreamed of.

Whilst he’d been in so many hearts for just a short time, he was an incredible father and grandfather, and he will stay alive in our hearts forever.

The care our father received from the NHS and carers over the last few weeks and years of his life has been extraordinary. They have been unfalteringly professional, kind and compassionate and have given us many more years with him than we ever would have imagined.

Over the past few days our father spoke a great deal about the last 12 months and how proud he felt at being able to leave behind the growing legacy of his foundation.

We politely ask for privacy at this time so we can grieve quietly as a family and remember the wonderful 100 years our father had.

Thank you.

Updated

Captain Sir Tom Moore dies

Captain Sir Tom Moore has died. His authorised Twitter account has posted this.

Moore died after being admitted to Bedford hospital on Sunday 31 January.

Moore’s fundraising efforts during the first national lockdown in April last year raised £38.9m for NHS charities after his pledge to walk 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday captured the imagination of fans from around the world.

Updated

Scottish secretary offers Sturgeon help to enable Scotland's vaccine programme to catch up with England's

Boris Johnson’s latest plan to counter the threat to the union posed by Scottish nationalism involves the deployment of troops. But luckily we’re not in tanks in George Square territory. The UK government is offering to make members of the armed forces available in Scotland to help with the vaccine rollout.

It is one idea mentioned in a letter from Alistair Jack, the Scottish secretary, to Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, offering “any support or assistance we can give you to accelerate your rollout programme”.

The letter does not explicitly criticise Scotland’s vaccine rollout programme for failing to keep pace with England’s. But this is implied in the passage where Jack says “it is in everyone’s interests that progress in vaccinating the people of Scotland matches the best efforts of the rest of the UK”. (In her speech to MSPs, Sturgeon strongly defended her government’s approach. See 12.50pm.)

And although the letter does not overtly condemn nationalism, it stresses the advantage of the union - as ministers have been doing routinely since a decision was recently taken to challenge the SNP’s independence arguments with more vigour. Jack says Covid has shown the advantages of “working together as one UK”.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon's Covid statement to MSPs - Summary

Here are the main points from Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid statement to the Scottish parliament. It was full of policy, much of which opens up a gap with what Boris Johnson is doing in England. (Similarly, Sturgeon’s language on holidays is quite different from the PM’s.)

  • Sturgeon said her government would introduce a “much more comprehensive” quarantine policy than England’s, introducing “managed quarantine” for anyone arriving in Scotland, regardless of where they have come from. She said:

We intend to introduce a managed quarantine requirement for anyone who arrives directly into Scotland, regardless of which country they have come from.

Obviously, we cannot unilaterally implement immediate managed quarantine for people who arrive in other parts of the UK before travelling on to Scotland.

So we will continue to urge the UK government to adopt a comprehensive approach. And if they do not wish to do so - as is their prerogative - we will ask them to work with us to reduce the risk amongst people travelling to Scotland via ports elsewhere in the UK.

We will set out more detail of how and when the managed quarantine system will be operationalised as soon as possible.

  • She said the UK government’s hotel quarantine plan - which will only force people to stay in hotels if they are arriving from countries deemed high risk - did “not go far enough”. She explained:

Firstly, there should be very few people coming from countries with a ban in place anyway.

Second, this approach leaves open the possibility that people will travel into the UK from those countries via third countries.

And thirdly, an approach to managed quarantine that only includes countries where new variants have already been identified is too reactive - because often by the time a new variant has been identified through genomic sequencing, it will already have spread across borders.

  • She said there would be a phased return to school for some pupils from Monday 22 February. She said:

As of now, our intention is that from week beginning 22 February there will be

- a full time return of early learning and childcare for all children below school age;

- a full time return to school for pupils in primaries 1 - 3;

and - a part time return, but on a very limited basis, for senior phase pupils to allow in-school practical work that is necessary for the completion of national qualification courses.

Initially, though, it is intended that there will be no more than around 5 - 8% of a secondary school roll physically present at any one time for these purposes.

We also intend to allow small increases in existing provision for children and young people with significant additional support needs where there is a clear and demonstrable necessity.

Sturgeon stressed that these plans were provisional, and dependent on good progress continuing to be made in suppressing the virus. She said they would be confirmed in two weeks’ time.

  • She said that holidays abroad would continue to be impossible for a while. She said:

When we are able to start the process of slowly easing lockdown, to give us all more normality in our day to day lives, we will have to accept that some mitigations, like physical distancing and face coverings, will be necessary for a while yet.

And I am afraid we will also have to accept that the price of greater domestic normality is likely to be - for a period at least - not going on holiday overseas. These are not easy trade-offs. But they are essential as we continue our journey through and hopefully out of this pandemic.

  • She said 98% of residents in older care homes and 83% of over-80s had now had their first dose of vaccine. And 21% of over-75s have had their first dose, she said.
  • She said Scotland’s focus on uptake helped to explain why its overall vaccination numbers were lower than in other parts of the UK. She said:

We haven’t just offered vaccination to all older people in care homes - we have achieved an actual uptake of 98% amongst residents and 88% amongst staff working in older people’s care homes. That really matters in terms of reducing the burden of illness and deaths.

  • She said 35,000 first dose vaccinations were carried out yesterday - 55% more than on last Monday.
  • She said later this month regular testing for healthcare workers would be extended to cover “primary care workers in patient-facing roles - such as GPs, dentists, optometrists, and pharmacists - as well as to hospice staff who work directly with patients.
  • She said eligibility for the £500 self-isolation grant would be extended to “everyone on an income below the level of the real living wage”.
  • She said daily case numbers have halved in the last three weeks. The seven-day average is now 1,062, she said, compared with more than 2,300 three weeks ago.
  • She said Covid hospital numbers in Scotland appeared to have peaked on 12 January. They were now starting to fall, “albeit slowly”.
  • She said the UK new variant of Covid accounted for 73% of new cases in Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon.
Nicola Sturgeon. Photograph: Russell Cheyne/Reuters

Updated

Fire officers distributing coronavirus testing kits to local resident in Maidstone, Kent, today, as part of the initiative to boost testing in areas where the South African variant has been found with no link to travel.
Fire officers distributing coronavirus testing kits to local resident in Maidstone, Kent, today, as part of the initiative to boost testing in areas where the South African variant has been found with no link to travel. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

The curious saga of a minister’s decision to publicly condemn a journalist for seemingly doing nothing more than asking some questions is dragging on, with Downing Street saying today it is keen to “draw a line” under the events – language which often indicates officials’ desire to close down an awkward matter.

This all began on Friday when Kemi Badenoch responded to questions by HuffPost journalist Nadine White about why the equalities minister had not taken part in a cross-party video promoting Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities with a furious Twitter thread calling the questions “creepy and bizarre” and accusing her of “making up claims”.

This has baffled HuffPost, given the questions appeared routine and the website didn’t publish a story as they had not received an answer from Badenoch. HuffPost says the tweets sparked abuse against White, and Badenoch’s actions have been condemned by the National Union of Journalists, and reported to a Council of Europe forum on media freedom.

When this was first raised with Downing Street on Monday in the daily press briefing, Boris Johnson’s press secretary, Allegra Stratton, defended Badenoch, saying the minister “had been civil” to White, and had reasons for her words.

Stratton referred the matter to the Cabinet Office, in which the equalities office is based, but it has declined to say why Badenoch had sent the tweets.

Asked today if she had anything more to say, Stratton did not.

I don’t have any more to add to what I said yesterday. No 10 doesn’t have anything more to add to what it said yesterday. I hoped that what I said yesterday, and the conversation we had, would draw a line under it.

While saying that the government “respects and encourages journalists to ask challenging, difficult questions”, Stratton pushed aside further questions on the tweets, and whether Badenoch should delete them.

“I think that this issue is best moved on from,” she said, adding: “I’m not in the business of telling ministers to delete tweets.”

All this can seem a bit arcane and Westminster-insider, but it is interesting in that it illustrates Downing Street’s decision to sometimes stand firm over issues despite near-unanimous criticism – the most obvious example being Dominic Cummings’ lockdown trips. Cummings might be gone, but his mantra of no compromise with the media still lives on, it would seem.

Kemi Badenoch in the Commons last month answering a question at the dispatch box while wearing a face covering.
Kemi Badenoch in the Commons last month answering a question at the dispatch box while wearing a face covering. Photograph: House of Commons/PA

Updated

The seven-day Covid case rate for Wales is down to 131 per 100,000 people but ministers and health chiefs are warning that it is still far too soon to relax.

Dr Giri Shankar, incident director for the outbreak response at Public Health Wales, said:

The pressure on our hospitals is still severe and shows no signs of easing yet, so it is extremely important that everyone sticks to the rules and stays at home as much as possible.

This is a crucial time. We must ensure that we stick to the rules over the next few weeks so that the number of cases continues to reduce and that hospitals can start to recover, while the vaccination programme is under way to protect the most vulnerable in our communities.

The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, said the foundations could “shift” at any moment, adding: “Things are moving in the right direction but there’s a fragility.”

This chart, from the Public Health Wales dashboard, shows how new cases have been falling.

New cases (blue bars) and tests (green bars) in Wales over past two months
New cases (blue bars) and tests (green bars) in Wales over past two months. Photograph: Public Health Wales

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon has finished her opening statement, and she is now taking questions. I will post a full summary shortly.

Sky’s Joe Pike says her announcements will cause problems for Boris Johnson.

Sturgeon says schools and childcare to start reopening from 22 February

Sturgeon is now talking about schools.

She says she wants pupils to gradually return to school from 22 February.

First, there will be a return to early learning and childcare settings, she says.

Then there will be a full-time return for primary school pupils in years one, two and three, she says.

And then there will be part-time return for senior pupils who need classroom access for their qualifications, she says.

She says she hopes to be able to confirm these arrangements in two weeks’ time.

And at that point she hopes to indicate when students can return to university, she says.

Updated

Scotland to extend eligibility for £500 self-isolation payments, Sturgeon says

Sturgeon says the £500 self-isolation grant will be extended to everyone in Scotland earning below the real living wage.

Updated

Scotland will impose 'managed quarantine' on all arrivals, Sturgeon says

Sturgeon says Scotland will introduced a “managed quarantine” policy for people arriving directly in the country - “regardless of which country, they have come from”. She says this is “much more comprehensive” than what the UK government is proposing.

She says her government cannot do this for the whole of the UK. But it is urging the UK government to adopt something similar.

More details of this will be set out as soon as possible, she says.

Sturgeon says new UK variant accounts for 73% of Covid cases in Scotland

Sturgeon says the figures show Scotland is making “real progress” in combating the disease.

But if the government were to ease restrictions too quickly, infections would rise again “very quickly”, she says.

She says 73% of new cases in Scotland involve the new variant (sometimes known as the Kent one).

She says Public Health Scotland is looking at evidence that this variant leads to an increased risk of hospitalisation. But she says there is no significant evidence it leads to an increased risk of death.

And she says there have been five cases of the South African variant in Scotland. But all of those are linked to travel, she says, meaning there is no evidence of community transmission.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon's statement to Scottish parliament

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is addressing the Scottish parliament now.

She starts with the latest Covid numbers for Scotland. There have been 69 further deaths, there are 1,939 people in hospital with Covid, and 758 new cases have been reported. Of all tests carried out, 7.4% were positive, she says.

Updated

Runny noses and other cold-like symptoms should be added to the list of tell-tale signs of coronavirus, according to GPs.

In an open letter to Prof Chris Whitty and Dr Susan Hopkins, published in the medical journal the BMJ and signed by more than 140 GPs across the UK, GP Alex Sohal writes that many patients who turn out to have coronavirus had no idea they were infected, and may have not have been isolating while infectious, because their experience did not match the three symptoms of cough, high temperature, and loss of smell or taste that are flagged by the NHS as signs of Covid.

Sohal goes on:

As GPs, we regularly review patients with mild symptoms - for example, a runny or blocked nose, sore throat, hoarseness, myalgia, fatigue, and headache - who subsequently turn out to be Covid-19 positive. These symptoms are often inadvertently picked up while dealing with patients’ other more pressing health issues.

NHS guidance states that patients should keep self-isolating for more than 10 days if they have a runny nose or sneezing. The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health guidance for schools states that a cold does not require Covid-19 testing.

Yet children with laboratory confirmed Sars-CoV-2 have presented with vomiting, sore throats, and runny noses.

The letter stresses that other countries, and the World Health Organization, already have a broader list of symptoms than the UK; indeed the WHO’s list includes a runny nose, vomiting and diarrhoea.

Updated

The Downing Street lobby briefing is over. Here are the key points.

  • No 10 said Sage has not called for the closure of UK borders. Responding to this morning’s Times story, the PM’s spokesman said:

Sage did not actually advise the government to completely close borders or call for a blanket quarantine on travels.

They don’t put forward recommendations. Their modelling showed a combination of specific policy options, including pre-departure testing and isolation, are effective in mitigating the public health risk.

As explained earlier, the Times does not say Sage advised the PM to shut the border. But the Sage minutes show the scientists did highlight the problems with “reactive, geographically targeted travel bans” - ie, with the approach the government is taking. See 9.23am.)

  • The spokesman said people in the areas with cases of the South African coronavirus variant should “do everything they can” to avoid contact with others. Asked whether they should use up tinned or frozen food rather than buy fresh produce, the spokesman said:

We are asking everybody across the country to stay at home except for a small number of exemptions, one of which is to go shopping for food and essential items.

  • Boris Johnson told cabinet this morning that the NHS remains under “great pressure” due to the number of coronavirus cases, the spokesman said.
  • Johnson told cabinet that the deployment of the HMS Queen Elizabeth carrier strike group to the Mediterranean, Indian Ocean and East Asia later this year would be “an important step towards Britain becoming a reinvigorated maritime nation”, the spokesman said.

In the Commons Mark Harper, the Conservative MP who chairs the lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group, asks Matt Hancock to confirm that the government will use deaths and hospitalisations as the key factors when deciding whether to reopen the economy from 8 March.

Hancock says four factors will be taken into account; not just deaths and hospitalisations, but progress with the vaccine roll-out, and the situation with new variants too.

He says he would not say the vaccine programme is ahead of schedule. It is on track, he says.

In the Commons Jeremy Hunt, the chair of the Commons health committee, asks Hancock if he agrees that 2021 should be as important for the care sector as 1948 was for the health service. It should be given a long-term financial settlement, he says.

Hancock says the Tories have a manifesto commitment to address this.

Hancock is replying to Ashworth.

He says Sage minutes are published regularly.

He says 10,307 care homes in England have been reached. He says another 110 homes have not yet been reached because of outbreaks.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, is responding to Hancock.

He asks when the South African variants not linked to travel were uncovered. The Ealing case was in December, he says.

He refers to this report from Tom Newton Dunn from Times Radio.

And he asks if the government will publish the Sage minutes mentioned in today’s Times splash. (See 9.23am.)

Hancock also says testing is being beefed up on the parliamentary estate.

In a news release about the initiative the Commons said:

Testing, which is booked by appointment, is only available for those who are required to attend the [parliamentary] estate. Social distancing measures are in place throughout the process.

Passholders wanting to use it need to ensure they have no Covid symptoms and have their mobile phone with them to register that they have had a test on the government website.

Hancock says testing now being boosted in Bristol and Liverpool after new variants found

Hancock summarising the door-to-door testing efforts taking place to counter the South African variant.

And he announces that 11 cases of the variant have been discovered in Bristol, and 32 in Liverpool. He says the same approach is now being applied in these areas.

UPDATE: Here is the full quote.

In those areas where [the South African] variant has been found - parts of Broxbourne, London, Maidstone and Southport, Walsall and Woking - we’re putting in extra testing and sequencing every positive test.

Working with local authorities we’re going door to door to test everyone in those areas and mobile testing units will be deployed offering PCR tests to people who have to leave their home for work or other essential reasons.

We have also seen 11 cases of mutations of concern in Bristol and 32 in Liverpool, and are taking the same approach. In all these areas it is imperative that people must stay at home and only leave home where it is absolutely essential.

Updated

In the Commons Matt Hancock starts by repeating some of the latest figures about the vaccination programme he announced at the press conference last night. Some 9.2 million people have been vaccinated.

He says the government is confident of being able to vaccinate the people in the top four priority groups by mid-February.

That we find ourselves in this position is no accident ... We’ve backed many vaccines, no matter where they’re from. And we’ve also built up our vaccine manufacturing capability here at home.

Updated

These are from ITV’s science editor Tom Clarke on how the Kent variant of coronavirus may be changing. (See 12pm.)

Matt Hancock's statement to MPs about coronavirus

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is about to make a statement to MPs about coronavirus. It is billed as a “Covid-19 update”, and some of it may overlap with what he said at the No 10 press conference yesterday.

An additional 51,000 laptops and tablets have been delivered or dispatched by the government in England to help with remote learning in the past week, PA Media reports. The PA story goes on:

New figures from the Department for Education (DfE) suggest that 365,268 devices have been sent to councils, academy trusts, schools and colleges across England since the lockdown began on January 4 - which is an additional 51,676 devices compared to the same time last week.

A total of 927,689 laptops and tablets have been delivered or dispatched to support pupils to access remote education since the start of the scheme.

Boxes of home testing being unloaded on a street in Woking today, so that they can be distributed door to door. Woking is one of the areas were testing is being intensified following a case of the South African variant in the area not linked to travel.
Boxes of home testing being unloaded on a street in Woking today, so that they can be distributed door to door. Woking is one of the areas were testing is being intensified following a case of the South African variant in the area not linked to travel. Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

And Public Health Wales has recorded seven further deaths and 614 further Covid cases in Wales.

This is the lowest daily total for deaths recorded for almost two months. It has not been this low since 7 December, when there were two deaths.

Gove says difficulties at Northern Ireland border are more than 'teething problems'

Back in the Commons, in response to a question from the former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan, who said that the Northern Ireland protocol was not working, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, said the difficulties were not just “teething problems” (as Boris Johnson has claimed in the past). He said the grace periods that delayed the introduction of some of the new post-Brexit rules needed to be extended.

In the long-term, Gove said, it was important to show people in Northern Ireland that the region was an integral part of the UK. He said that should be reflected in the way parliament works.

Updated

Public Health Wales said a total of 439,640 first doses of the Covid-19 vaccine had now been given. As PA Media reports, the agency said 1,066 second doses were also given.

In total, 77.2% of those over 80 have received their first dose of the vaccine, along with 75.8% of care home residents and 79.5% of care home staff, PA reports.

Gove tells MPs that he will be writing to Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European commission who, with Gove, co-chairs the joint committee overseeing the Northern Ireland protocol, with suggestions about how the problems at the border thrown up by the new arrangements can be addressed. And he says he will be meeting Šefčovič tomorrow to discuss these problems.

Updated

Gove says 'trust has been eroded' by EU proposal to block Covid exports to Northern Ireland

In the Commons, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is responding to an urgent question on the Northern Ireland protocol.

He says the EU decision on Friday to invoke article 16 in relation to the protocol was an attempt to stop the supply of vaccine to the UK that was expected according to legally binding contracts.

Not only plans to stop vaccines being delivered through legally-binding contracts at the height of a pandemic, but also - and critically - a unilateral suspension of the painstakingly designed and carefully negotiated provisions of the protocol, which the EU has always maintained was critical to safeguarding the gains of the Northern Ireland peace process.

Article 16 exists for good reasons but is meant to be invoked only after notification, only after all other options are exhausted and in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland.

Mr Speaker, none of these conditions were met.

Worse still, neither the UK government representing the people of Northern Ireland, nor the Irish government - an EU member - were informed.

Gove welcomes the fact that the EU backed down. And he praises Boris Johnson for adopting a robust approach.

But he says “trust has been eroded”. He suggests that there is a link between the actions of the EU and the threats issued by loyalists to port workers in Northern Ireland.

Trust has been eroded, damage has been done and urgent action is therefore needed.

Peace, progress and strong community relations in Northern Ireland have been hard-won and in recent days we’ve seen an increase in community tension, and, as was reported last night, port staff in Belfast and Larne have been kept away from work following concerns for their safety.

Updated

EU officials are also being withdrawn from duties at the ports in Northern Ireland in the light of the threats from loyalists (see 10.15am), the European commission has said. Eric Mamer, the commission’s spokesman, told a briefing in Brussels:

Obviously the security of our staff in Northern Ireland is as high a preoccupation as that of any other person working in Northern Ireland on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement.

We have asked them not to attend their duties today and we will continue to monitor the situation and adapt accordingly.

Updated

More than 1,000 Covid-19 deaths occurred each day for 14 days in a row in the UK in January, PA Media reports. Its story goes on:

The death toll, based on mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates, reached 1,273 on 16 January - the highest number of deaths to take place on a single day in the second wave so far.

But the figures could rise even higher once all deaths have been registered for the second half of the month.

The provisional data has been published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It shows that a total of 117,378 deaths had occurred in the UK by 22 January, where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

For the 14 days from 7 to 20 January, the daily death toll was above 1,000.

During the first wave of the virus in April 2020, there were 23 consecutive days when the death toll was above 1,000.

People queuing to get a Covid test in Ealing in west London today, where testing is being intensified after a case of the South African variant not linked to travel was found in the borough.
People queueing to get a Covid test in Ealing in west London today, where testing is being intensified after a case of the South African variant not linked to travel was found in the borough. Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

The great hope for drug treatments against Covid-19 – the monoclonal antibodies – are failing against variants of the virus, such as those that have emerged in South Africa and Brazil, scientists have found, my colleague Sarah Boseley reports.

Justin Welby, the archbishop of Canterbury, has said he is praying for Captain Sir Tom Moore, the 100-year-old charity fundraiser who is in hospital being treated for pneumonia and who has tested positive for Covid. Welby told ITV’s Good Morning Britain:

I think one of Sir Tom’s extraordinary achievements is to stand for all of us in the most remarkable way - in his courage, in the way he supported the NHS and raised so much money, and now to stand for all of us in this battle against Covid, he stands for every patient.

In praying for him, we pray for everybody. And for his family who love him and care for him, not because he’s Sir Tom Moore but because he’s just their beloved father, grandfather, cousin, whatever it is.

And so he stands for all of us in a remarkable way, and he’s been such a gift and so we carry on praying for him.

Northern Ireland executive condemns threats to port workers

The power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland has issued a joint statement condemning threats from loyalists to port workers who are enforcing the new post-Brexit customs checks on some goods arriving from Britain. (See 10.15am.) It says:

Regardless of our very different views on the Northern Ireland protocol, the executive is united in condemning any threats made against workers and staff going about their duties at Belfast and Larne ports.

As public servants, these staff should be allowed to do their jobs without fear and it is unacceptable and intolerable that threats have been made.

The threats should be lifted immediately and staff should be allowed to return to their posts and get back to their work.

There is no place in society for intimidation and threats against anyone going to their place of work.

Scientists describe change found in some cases of Kent variant as concerning

Yesterday Public Health England published a highly technical briefing paper on the new variant of coronavirus circulating in the UK - sometimes known as the Kent variant, sometimes referred to as B117, and sometimes referred to as VOC (variant of concern) 202012/01.

It reveals that the “spike protein mutation E484K ... has been detected in 11 B117 sequences”.

E484K is one of the glitches that explains why the South African variant is different from the original version of coronavirus (or the “wild-type variant”, as it is sometimes called). And it is “of concern” because it could make the variant less susceptible to antibodies. This is what Sage said about it in minutes (pdf) from a meeting on 7 January.

The E484K mutation is of concern as it has been associated with evasion of neutralisation by monoclonal antibodies. This mutation is present in the B1351 variant which has been identified in South Africa.

In other words, the Kent variant could be getting more similar to the South African one.

Helpfully, the Science Media Centre has this morning published comments from four scientists who can explain this all rather better than I can. Two of them describe this as a matter of “concern”, and a third says it is “worrying”. Here are some extracts.

Dr Julian Tang, a virologist at the University of Leicester, says this is “a worrying development, though not entirely unexpected”. He says:

If this E484K mutation is acquired by most of the UK B117 variants – the recent reassurances from recent studies showing that the mRNA vaccines will still offer optimum protection against the original UK variant – may no longer apply.

And Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, says this development is “of concern, but ultimately no surprise”. He says:

Mutations arise spontaneously and thrive if they provide the virus with an advantage. In lab studies, this mutation meant that antibodies were less able to bind to the virus’ spike protein in order to stop it from unlocking human cells to gain entry. Clinical trials by Novavax and Johnson & Johnson showed that their new vaccines were less effective in South Africa, compared to the UK or USA, and it is presumed that it was because of the high level of virus carrying this E484K mutation. While no assessments have yet been made on the effectiveness of the vaccines currently in use in this country, it is entirely possible that their efficacy will be similarly diminished by this mutation.

And this is from Dr Jonathan Stoye, group leader at the Retrovirus-Host Interactions Laboratory at the Francis Crick Institute.

The E484K mutation now been identified in a small fraction of viruses carrying sequence differences defining the UK variant. This suggests that the UK variant is now independently acquiring the E484K change. From a virological standpoint, appearance of new variants by mutation during replication cannot be considered surprising. Whether this change will provide significant growth advantages for the novel virus causing it to predominate remains to be seen.

Updated

An official report into crisis-hit Croydon council, which collapsed into effective bankruptcy in the autumn, has concluded “significant failings in leadership and management” helped blow an estimated £70m black hole in its budget.

A wave of cuts to services and sell-offs of municipal buildings and land are expected as the council seeks drastic reductions in costs. The report earmarks its high-spending adult and children’s social care services for savings programmes.

The report calls for an overhaul of the council’s failing finance department and property investment arm, and recommends the council-owned Croydon Park hotel, empty since March because of Covid, could be used to house homeless families.

Communities secretary Robert Jenrick, who commissioned the report, accepted its advice the Labour-led council be overseen for three years by an arms-length board rather than be directly-run by a Whitehall team on a day to day basis.

The report urges Jenrick to allow Croydon to bend normal accounting rules to allow it to spend capital funds on everyday costs, a process known as “capitalisation.” Croydon has asked permission to raise £150m over the next three years in this way.

The report says that given the huge scale of Croydon’s deficit “there is no alternative option” to capitalisation, and no guarantees it will save the council. But Jenrick has postponed a decision, leaving the council sweating for another few weeks.

Croydon is just the second English council to declare itself technically insolvent in the past two decades. The other was Tory-run Northamptonshire County Council, in 2018.

Prof Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London (UCL) and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told Sky News this morning that, without closing borders completely, or imposing hotel quarantine on all arrivals, the chances of new variants of coronavirus arriving in the UK were “probably in the long term 100%”.

But he said that what was crucial was to have a “sustainable strategy” to contain the virus.

The nature of this virus is that it will continue to mutate, as do all viruses, and new strains will emerge and they’ll emerge in many different countries in the world at different times, and you won’t notice that they are spreading until such time as they are quite widespread.

The real challenge here is that, well, yes, you can think about completely shutting the borders or having quarantine, [but] what’s the endgame in that?

Is that something that you’re going to do forever, because it looks like these strains may continue to arise in the long term? So we need some sort of sustainable strategy, and I think that’s very difficult for politicians to think about that.

I think, at the moment, we’re in a position where we don’t really understand the potential of these strains.

He also said that the 11 cases of the South African variant identified in England not relating to travel were probably just the “tip of the iceberg” in relation to community transmission. He said:”

This variant is identified through genetic sequencing and we sequence between 5% and 10% of all cases, so you can immediately tell from that that we have a big under-estimation of the number of cases ...

We would expect we’re seeing the tip of the iceberg of community transmission.

These are from Carl Baker, a researcher in the House of Commons library specialising in health and maps.

Scientist calls for curbs on UK arrivals to halt South African Covid variant

Prof Calum Semple, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has said that there must be a “significant reduction” in people coming into the country to combat the South African coronavirus variant – but that closing borders completely would be impractical.

Semple told the Today programme:

It’s much easier if you’re a small island such as the Isle of Man to close the borders.

Britain is a complex transit country and it’s a much harder decision to make there. But, in general, I do support restricting movement, particularly of people in this time. You can’t do it altogether when you get a country that’s dependent on imports for food and other essential processes, it’s just not practical, but yes a significant reduction in the movement of people is incredibly important at present.

My colleague Haroon Siddique has the story here.

Updated

Minister suggests imposing hotel quarantine on all arrivals not 'realistic'

In interviews this morning Michelle Donelan, the universities minister, rejected claims that the government was delaying the introduction of hotel quarantine for arrivals to the UK from countries where new variants of coronavirus are spreading. The proposal was announced in outline by Priti Patel, the home secretary, last week, but full details have not been set out, and no start date has been given.

Asked why there was an apparent delay, Donelan told BBC Breakfast:

I don’t think there’s a delay. There wasn’t a timeframe set originally as to when we would announce this.

We announced the intention of this last week in conjunction with other initiatives that we’re doing, including banning travel from other countries, and the details will be announced.

It is a logistical effort as well, as you will appreciate, and so it all needs to be laid out properly and the health secretary will be doing that.

Donelan also claimed that calls for hotel quarantine for all arrivals - as explicitly proposed by Labour, and floated as an option by the Scottish government - was not realistic. She said:

We have to be realistic about what we adopt and what we do, and what is deliverable as well, and also targeted in our approach to making sure that we minimise the risk and identifying those countries where we can see the risk.

So, a blanket policy that Nicola Sturgeon is proposing would not necessarily be as effective as the one that we are suggesting, and also it’s much more doable.

Michelle Donelan on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.
Michelle Donelan on ITV’s Good Morning Britain. Photograph: ITV/REX/Shutterstock

Covid care home deaths in England and Wales have passed 36,000, latest ONS figures show

The number of care home residents with Covid-19 on their death certificate in England and Wales has reached its highest level since last May, bringing the death toll across the UK to over 36,000.

In the four weeks to 22 January, fatalities linked to the virus more than tripled to 2,364 in England and Wales, according to figures released by the Office of National Statistics this morning.

They rose most sharply in the south-east of England, where care homes have been hit hard by the rapid spread of the new Kent variant of the virus, as well as the east of England. Covid fatalities have been rising quickly too in care homes in the south-west and north-west of England too. The figures include deaths of residents in hospitals as well as in their care homes.

But there are signs in more recent data that the rise in fatalities may be plateauing. In the week to last Friday, care homes in England notified regulators of 1,790 deaths in their facilities involving Covid, only slightly higher than the week before. It follows weeks of consistent increases.

Brexit checks on animal and food products arriving into Belfast and Larne ports have been suspended amid fears over the safety of staff, Northern Ireland’s agriculture ministry has said. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll filed this story overnight.

This morning Patrick Mulholland, deputy general secretary at the NIPSA union, represents some of the workers at Larne and Belfast ports, said his members were very anxious about the threats from loyalists. He said:

They, first of all, tend to be in shock because they suddenly find themselves under a level of threat they would not expect to be under. These are ordinary working people.

They then become very anxious because they do not know how this is going to work out and they do want the greatest possible level of support and assurance from their fellow workers and people in society that they have got their backs.

Scotland may prioritise younger pupils when reopening schools, says health chief

Younger pupils may be allowed to return to Scottish schools earlier than forecast, because progress is being made suppressing the latest Covid-19 outbreak, Sturgeon’s national clinical director Jason Leitch has said.

Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, is due to update MSPs later on Tuesday on any adjustments to the strict lockdown rules across most of Scotland, which has led to all mainland schools being largely closed.

Leitch told BBC Radio Scotland he had recommended allowing younger children to return to school soonest, but he would not commit to allowing older pupils facing exams to do so, or the date at which primary schools would reopen. Although some pupils would return, schools would not immediately return to normal, Leitch added. He said:

We’re heading in the right direction.

I can break the secret - you definitely won’t see all of lockdown lifted, but there is progress and therefore you’ve got to think, as public health advisers, what is the first thing you should do?

The most important thing is children. That’s what we’ve trailed in the last few weeks that, if we can, we will get some kids back to school.

The Welsh government has also said that it will prioritise younger pupils when reopening schools.

Sturgeon is also expected to update Holyrood on the Scottish government’s international travel restrictions, after signalling last week Scotland may impose tougher hotel quarantine rules on people arriving from overseas than those planned by the UK government.

Excess deaths running at more than 40% in England and Wales in mid-January, ONS says

The Office for National Statistics has published its weekly death figures for England and Wales. They cover the week ending Friday 22 January. Here are the key points.

  • There were 18,676 deaths overall registered in the week ending 22 January and 45.1% of them (8,422) involved coronavirus (in that it was mentioned on the death certificate). This is the highest proportion for Covid deaths for any week during the pandemic.
  • The total number of Covid deaths in the week ending 22 January (8,422), is the second highest weekly number recorded during the pandemic. It marks an increase of 1,177 deaths compared with the week before.
  • Excess deaths in the week ending 22 January (ie, deaths above the norm for this time of year) were running at 41.3% above the five-year average. Here are the excess death trends for England and Wales.
Excess deaths in England and Wales
Excess deaths in England and Wales Photograph: ONS

And here are the regional figures.

Regional excess death figures for week ending 22 January
Regional excess death figures for week ending 22 January Photograph: ONS

Tens of thousands of people will be tested in a door-to-door “two-week sprint” to halt the spread of the South African coronavirus variant starting this morning. SurreyLive has details here of what is going on in Woking, one of the eight postcode areas in England where this is happening.

Volunteers being briefed at Woking fire station before they set out this morning delivering testing kits door to door.
Volunteers being briefed at Woking fire station before they set out this morning delivering testing kits door to door. Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Updated

Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, told BBC Breakfast this morning that the South African variant of coronavirus could make it easier for people to become infected a second time. She said:

In Brazil where there is a different variant - which was badly hit in the first wave - there was a lot of reinfection there and that’s what also seems to potentially be the case with this variant in South Africa.

South Africa is a country that has really struggled during this pandemic and we have had rates on reinfection there.

If someone in the UK has been infected with Sars-CoV-2 and become unwell with Covid-19 in the past, it might be potentially, if they come into contact with this variant, they may become unwell again.

That’s why it’s really important to do this surge testing and try and find the cases and support people to self-isolate.

Labour says leaked Sage document confirms PM's border policy won't keep out new variants

Good morning. Ministers have repeatedly - and often correctly - been accused of ignoring scientific advice about coronavirus, and there is another claim to that effect this morning. But government sources are pushing back. The reality - as far as it can be discerned at this point - is not straightforward.

The claim is in a story leading the Times (paywall) by its deputy political editor, Steven Swinford. It starts: “Government scientists had warned that only mandatory hotel quarantine for all travellers would prevent new coronavirus strains from arriving in the country before it emerged that the South African variant was spreading in Britain.”

Labour, which last night won a Commons vote 262-0 in support of its policy calling for all arrivals to the UK to be subject to hotel quarantine, described the report as damning. In a statement Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary, said:

These revelations are incredibly serious. Ministers have knowingly left the UK border open and potentially exposed people to new strains of the virus, in direct contradiction of their own government scientists’ advice.

This puts the gains of the vaccine at risk, with disastrous consequences for people’s lives.

But, as the BBC’s Adam Fleming reports, the government has this morning been hitting back, saying that it is not true that Boris Johnson ignored a recommendation from Sage to close the borders.

This sounds rather like a broad denial of the story. But on closer examination, it isn’t, for reasons that become clear if you examine the story carefully.

Swinford quotes excerpts from minutes of a meeting of Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, held on 21 January and none of these quotes are being contested by No 10. And, crucially, his story does not say that Sage advised Boris Johnson to shut the border last month. This is what it does say about the Sage advice.

Sage met on January 21 and discussed how to reduce the importation of mutant strains of coronavirus. Minutes from the meeting state: “The emergence of new variants of concern around the world presents a rationale for attempting to reduce importation of even small numbers of infectious cases.

“This rationale will strengthen if new variants emerge that are capable of immune escape. Measures would be likely to delay importation of these variants rather than prevent them altogether.”

The scientists state that stopping the arrival of new variants will be “most important” when the prevalence of the virus is low in Britain.

“No intervention, other than a complete, pre-emptive closure of borders, or the mandatory quarantine of all visitors upon arrival in designated facilities, irrespective of testing history, can get close to fully preventing the importation of new cases or new variants,” the minutes say.

“Reactive, geographically targeted travel bans cannot be relied upon to stop importation of new variants due to the lag between the emergence and identification of variants of concern, as well as the potential for indirect travel via a third country.”

Without having read the full minutes (which will get published eventually), it is hard to be sure, but the sentence about how only a “complete, pre-emptive closure of borders” can “get close” to preventing the importation of new variants does not sound like a firm recommendation that this should happen; it sounds more like a warning that, because border controls are never fail-safe, other measures are important.

The key point, perhaps, is that Sage said “geographically targeted travel bans” would not stop new variants arriving in the UK. This is embarrassing because “geographically targeted travel bans” are currently the main focus of government border policy.

We will be hearing more on this as the day goes on. Here is the agenda.

9.30am: Boris Johnson chairs a virtual meeting of cabinet.

9.30am: The ONS publishes its weekly death figures for England and Wales.

11.30am: The all-party parliamentary group on coronavirus takes evidence from academics and campaigners on Covid transmission in schools.

12pm: The Department for Education publishes its latest school attendance figures.

12.30pm: Downing Street holds its daily lobby briefing.

12.30pm: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, responds to a Commons urgent question on the Northern Ireland protocol.

Around 1.30pm: Matt Hancock, the health secretary, makes a statement to MPs about coronavirus.

After 2pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, makes a statement to the Scottish parliament on her government’s review of lockdown.

Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.

Here is our global coronavirus live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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